Bullcross
BTCUSD: MACD Fakeout or Trend Change?As the MACD shows on the Daily chart, we are currently facing a not-yet-confirmed bear-cross today, lasts seen December 17th 2019 at $6,612. Since the breakdown from $10K last September we have seen 4 bear crosses, twice causing the price to drop 20-25% (September 21st & November 9th 2019), the other two two times were not-so-obvious bear traps before price rallied 40% (October 24th at $7,435 and as previously referenced).
Needless to say, there is more upside with this becoming a MACD fakeout, than a trend change to bearish on the Daily chart. It's also worth noting that while the Daily is bear-crossing, the Weekly MACD is still close to bull-crossing, implying a lack of confluence:
All this while the Monthly MACD bear-crossed last month, although has been shedding bearish momentum this month:
To say that there is indecision in the markets, based on different time frames (short, medium, long) is an understatement.
Recent Bitcoin TA:
Volume Profile Accumulation Zone $5,910 - $8,630
Bitcoin Futures Confirms 100 & 200 Day Bear Cross
Network Hash Gives 10th Buy Signal In 9 Years
February 6th-11th 2020 - The Next Swing Low
Could This Descending Triangle Be The Final Fake Out?
Extrapolating 2014 Correction - Could $6,500 Be The Low?
Two & Four Year MA's Claim It's Time To Accumulate
BTCUSD: Zooming Into The Weekly Chart Doesn't Look GoodUsing the 2100 & 4200 MAs on the 4hr chart (like a weirdo) gives us the 50 & 100 Week MAs on a zoomed in time-frame. Although we already had the bullcross on these Weekly MAs, on a 4hr chart ("in real-time"), we are now seeing the bullish crossover with the price sat underneath it.
This follows two weeks of rejection fom the median of the bear channel, continued failure to maintain support above the 0.382 fib retracement (of the $3,100 to $13,850 move), as well as arguably initial rejection from the bull-cross itself that "IRT" occured yesterday.
With the volume dropping off and another descending triangle being established , this is enough reason to be bearish right now.
Related TA:
Could This Descending Triangle Be The Final Fake Out?
Measuring The Move of the Descending Triangle Breakdown
Descending Triangle On 4hr Chart To Look Out For?
Extrapolating 2014 Correction - Could $6,500 Be The Low?
Miner Capitulation Or Minor Capitulation?
Bitcoin Repeating History: 10 Part TA Series On Repeating Past Patterns
Full series with recent updates: bitcointalk.org
MA Bullish Cross and RSI Easter EggsAfter exhausting looks at near term analysis I decided to look at the BIG picture, and I found what seems to be undeniable to me. Keep in mind that the MAs don't lie, and the higher the time frame, the longer the impact of the crossing. So, when the MA50 crosses the MA100 (probably tomorrow) we can expect at least a short term (a few months at least) bull market based on the 50/100 MA cross. You don't have to believe me, just look at it's history on the weekly BTC chart.
As I wrote in my chart, the MA crossing happens to be at the same time the RSI Cup and Handle is supposed to impulse upward from the handle. Coincidence? I don't think so.
Another Bearish Bitcoin Indicator: 200 EMA & MA BearcrossA quick look at the projected 200 EMA & MA bear-cross on the Daily chart. From the March 16th 2018 bearcross at $8,273, the bullcross didn't occur until over a year later on April 4th 2019 at $4,911 after a 40% correction. The current gain in price since this 2019 bullcross has been 60%. Unless the price moves above $8500 within the coming days, the EMA & MA bear-cross is due to occur by the end of the week.
Many traders complain that due to Bitcoin's volatility the MA bull & bear crosses on longer timeframes are delayed indicators, while others prefer to utilize the EMA's (Exponential Moving Averages) for this reason. Here you see the value of trading the 200 EMA & MA bull & bear crosses. Note that following the 2018 bearcross the price first increased by 20% to the 200 Day MA, before signaling the longer-term downtrend.
If Bitcoin Repeats History?
Part 1: Descending Triangle Looking Similar To 2018
Part 2: Measuring The Move of the Descending Triangle Breakdown
Part 3: A repeat of 2014? Worst Case Scenario A $2,500 Low
Part 4: If Bitcoin Repeats History? Extrapolating 2012 Breakdown
Part 5: If 2017 Descending Triangle Repeats? Best Case Scenario
Part 6: If Bitcoin Repeats History? Monthly TD Sequential Red 1
