BTCUSDT VOL SQUEEZE + FALLING WEDGEImportant things to note:
There are actually reasons to be short term bullish right now, yay!
Bullish Divergence is building right now on the lower timeframes.
Falling Wedge should push price into my box.
Watch for creation of inverse H&S on push up.
IH&S would likely lead to retest of top trendline.
Price is holding up well given the circumstances.
Large buyers have been stepping in on spot. Futures still getting rekt. Likely covering spot purchases.
On chain data shows very low supply.
A supply shock would lead to a decoupling from QQQ.
Macro situation still very uncertain.
I am macro bearish until the Fed switches gears and implements yield curve control (which they will).
Tradfi getting rekt hard. I do not see an end to the macro situation until the Fed breaks the credit market.
Hello everyone! I hope you are all doing well! My last box was hit perfectly. It took a little longer than expected due to earning season for tradfi. I have some good news. I have been keeping my eye on supply and it looks very promising. So, we have large buyers stepping in on spot which is keeping the price from falling into goblin town with the rest of Tradfi. Futures are still putting a lot of sell pressure on BTC at the moment, but the spot buys are offsetting it. This is causing a vol squeeze which can either push price up or down. I can see RSI bullish divergence building on lower timeframes and we can see a nice falling wedge. I will be looking at the PA on the way up to my new green box. Specifically, I am looking for the formation of an inverse H&S pattern which would bring the price up to test the top trendline. Though I am short term bullish, I am macro bearish until I see the Fed pivot on their hawkish stance. The Fed is currently breaking the credit market, which is breaking the equity market. Eventually, they will need to reverse course and implement yield curve control to stop the bloodshed. When this occurs, the market will have bottomed and pump rather hard. I can see this happening in the next 6-9 months, so stay tuned. The good news is that if BTC can push itself a bit higher, you will not have to worry about BTC breaking 30k when Tradfi bleeds. I think the supply shock coming into BTC along with short term bullishness can act as a good buffer against the macro environment. This is bitter sweet for me because I would love to purchase more BTC on the cheap. I have been buying steadily since the last drop to 32k. I will continue to update you once my box has been hit! Keep an eye on the price action! Thanks everyone!
So tell me what you think?
Not financial advice. Do your own research.
