10/03/25 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $93,745.25
Last weeks low: $80,029.90
Midpoint: $86,887.58
Last week in crypto saw the first White House Digital Assets Summit. An event that only as recently as the last bull cycle we could only dream of taking place. In the summit that hosted the biggest names in the space a vow was made by the US Gov never to sell their BTC, to establish stablecoin regulatory clarity and to stockpile various US made altcoins. A historic moment but how did that relate to the chart?
Well BTC dropped 14.6% from weekly high set at the beginning of the week to weekly low set at the end of the week. The most important aspect is how this now looks on the higher time frames, the once strong support level of $91K has now been confirmed as new resistance as BTC tried several times to reclaim it and in the end fell away. This now puts BTC in the FVG area from $91-73K. With no real support until the $73,000 level this is knife catching territory and with the SP:SPX rolling over too I would need a lot more evidence that BTC will turn around before going long with any real size.
This week I anticipate further sell-off, now I would be happy to be proven wrong on that however it does look like we are heading towards FWB:73K where I would like to see buyers stepping up and start to dominate the orderbooks. Structurally that would fill a large inefficiency area with an eye to bounce off support and move back towards currently levels ~ GETTEX:82K as that would be the midpoint of the FVG although that is a few steps in the future.
CPI takes place this week and so volatility may be expected but unless the result is wildly different to the forecast numbers the whipsaw PA should level out fairly neutral.
Invalidation on this idea would be a successful reclaim of $91K which is previous mini range low & 4H 200 EMA resistance.
