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S&P500: Higher Low Can Lead To Test Of 2710 Again Soon.S&P500 Update: This chart puts Friday's strong market close into perspective. There is a failed low and bullish pin bar off the 2615 to 2587 support zone. This bullish configuration can lead to a consolidation breakout and retest of the 2710 to 2751 resistance zone. Earnings, economic data and political catalysts sway sentiment in this market constantly, but it is important not to lose sight of the levels. The 2615 to 2587 support zone is the .618 area relative to the recent bullish structure. This is an area to look for buying activity which appeared Thursday by the close. Friday was when a bullish trigger occurred along with dramatic follow though. This information is valuable even if you are not trading the S&P outright. Since this market generally acts as a broader market gauge, you can use signals in this market to help time decisions in individual companies. For example, the current technical structure implies broader strength in the near term. If this market breaks out of its consolidation and pushes the 2751 resistance level, it may be well on its way toward the 3K level which sets the stage for a summer rally. Keep in mind, this market is very sensitive to many economic and political variables. Don't be distracted by the reaction to this information, instead question how price is behaving at the predetermined levels. Now that momentum has shifted back to bullish, the next relevant area to consider is the 2710 to 2751 resistance zone (.618 of recent bearish structure). If price can close strong in this area, then it is more likely to push into the next zone which is the 2746 to 2804 area. In summary, overall price is still within a broader consolidation but there are signs that imply a broader bullish breakout is more likely. Monitor fundamental catalysts but do not fall victim to exaggerated news or over dramatized hype. Instead, use the levels that this market faces as it moves forward as more of a measure of reality. If price breaks below the 2587 support, then more bearish sentiment should be expected, otherwise, this market is still following the bullish road map that has been outlined by the long term Elliott Wave count available on S.C. There is no guarantee that the market will stay on this path, but watch for fundamentals that reinforce this technical view along the way and plan ahead, do not react. Questions and comments welcome.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MarcPMarkets
2
BTCUSD: Poised To Push 10K, But Far From Levels For New Longs.BTCUSD update: Price fluctuates around the 9861 reversal zone boundary as it breaks an inside bar in an attempt to go higher. Great price action if you are long, but as price continues higher, the risk of retrace increases. Price is now pushing further into the 9683 to 10561 resistance zone (.618 of recent bearish structure). For the short sighted, it appears that price will continue higher and higher, which is possible, but more often than not, resistance levels attract selling. The 9861 reversal zone boundary happens to be inside this wide resistance zone which emphasizes the resistance even more. Now keep in mind, there are plenty of bullish signs that are still intact which can present a very conflicting situation. Price is maintaining a clearly bullish trend line, and the 8514 support (.382 of current bullish swing) is still intact. With bullish momentum still in play, higher prices are likely. The problem is the level of risk. When I mention risk, I am talking about risk in terms of initiating new swing trade longs. Buying within this resistance zone is like buying at 18.5K. Yeah there is some upside left, but if you are not nimble, or just distracted by greed, you will more than likely stay in the trade if it weakness sets in. Weakness can take this market back to the 8514 level which will be a perfectly healthy and normal retrace. Do you want buy now and take that chance? In summary, temporary weakness can engulf this market out of nowhere, especially at these levels. Price can go as high as 10561 before any signs of weakness set in which can be very seductive. At S.C., we observe best practices which simply means we buy supports and sell resistances. As great as price action looks, the predetermined levels are what help us maintain consistency, even if it means sitting out during what appears to be "hot" market moves. We want to capitalize on the herd mentality, not be part of it and that means we wait for a retrace, no matter how far the market moves without us. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
37
ETHUSD: Not Buying Highs While Waiting For Retrace To 590s.ETHUSD update: Price pushing into major resistance zone and breaks the 764 key level. Like I wrote in my earlier report on S.C., buying in this area for a swing trade carries a high degree of risk. When a market trades like the way this one is, where it consolidated above the trend line and broke out to new highs, it looks like an easy trade after the fact. What you don't see is the amount of risk if the trade does not work out. As I wrote in a previous report, price needs to either retrace to the relevant support (now 591) or push into the resistance zone which it has. Environments like this, that are trending but carry a lot of risk on larger time frames are better suited for day trading. The reason is time. If you took the breakout above the 700 level, if it faked out, since you are day trading, you can get out immediately for a small loss. If the trade works out, you capture some of the move, and then have the option to hold it longer once you have a nice cushion to play with. Working with smaller time frames, you will have more signals and conditions to consider that can provide a level of nimbleness that is not within the scope of a swing trade. With this being said, I am not looking at this market from a day trading perspective, only the swing trading perspective which means I must stick to my swing trade rules and criteria no matter how enticing a market looks. The 741 to 845 resistance zone is the .618 of the recent bearish structure. From a swing trade perspective, it is not an area to buy, it is an area to consider selling or locking in profits if you are long from lower prices. This is where the reactionary herd of buyers pile in and offer a nice liquidity spike to unload inventory into. The 764 resistance is the .382 of the entire bearish structure relative to the 1420 high. Price has not cleared it dramatically, so there is still a high probability that this market falls out of this zone. If the market does sell, the 591 support (.382 of current bullish swing) is the level to watch for the much more attractive reward/risk swing trade long. In summary, as I wrote earlier in today's S.C. report, patience is essential during times like this. Do not let your greed get the best of you. No market goes in one direction forever. It will retrace at some point, and that is when we can evaluate the next swing trade opportunity. As this market continues to unfold, we will be posting updates and signals (if the market cooperates) on S.C. only. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
28
Ethereum (ETHUSD) bullish price channel update: 4hr tfMy previous post on the bull channel for Ethereum (ETHUSD) can be found here. It was mentioned in the previous post that the next target for Ethereum (ETHUSD) to indicate a continuation of its current bullish momentum was ~ $737.36 and $763.47. Besides, Ethereum (ETHUSD) also reached Support 1 (~ 627.68 and $597.18 ) mentioned in the previous post before resuming the current bullish leg that has seen Ethereum (ETHUSD) advance towards $800. Due to price action breaking the previous trendline and reaching support 1 mentioned in the previous post, the channel boundaries have been redrawn again to reflect a valid bullish price channel for Ethereum (ETHUSD). The new target for Ethereum (ETHUSD) therefore is the upper region of the channel, which is ~ $818.71 and $839.68. Any retracement from the upper region of the channel would likely reach the bottom of the channel at ~$712.98 as indicated by the downward red arrow. A break below the bottom of the channel should find support A between ~$674.52 and $646.24. A lower support (i.e. support B between $623.62 and $597.60) on a break below support A is another region that Ethereum could possibly target on a break below its channel. A breakout above the upper line of the channel should be followed by a consolidation in the price of Ethereum (ETHUSD) before going long and/or adding to already established long positions. This ensures avoiding a possible fakeout breakout.
BITFINEX:ETHUSDLong
by Coin_Analyst
ETHUSD: Mixed Price Action Unfit For Long Signal.ETHUSD update: Pin bar forms in an attempt to break the primary bullish trend line. This candle stick pattern is usually a key requirement for a buy signal, but not the only requirement. This price action is tempting as a long signal, but the location makes it more risky than its worth. At S.C. we apply rules based trading techniques to call our trades. The first rule is that price needs to be at a predetermined level (support or resistance). At the moment, price is fluctuating between the 575 support area (.382 of recent bullish swing) and the 741 to 845 resistance zone (.618 of recent bearish structure). In order to go long, price needs to be gyrating around the 575 area and then establishing a bullish pin bar. The 575 area also happens to be where the secondary trend line is located as well which adds to the bullish argument. Or price needs to be testing the 493 to 434 support zone (.618 of current bullish swing) in order for a long signal to meet the criteria for taking risk. Just like in BTC, there is nothing attractive or special about the current price area which means price action is more likely to behave randomly here. Situations like the one visible on the chart, are what lure traders who are driven by greed and focused on money into the market. They focus more on the potential profit rather than the probability of generating that profit consistently over time. Remember even when everything lines up perfectly, the trade can still fail. So imagine the performance over time of trades that are taken for no reason. The performance is completely random minus your costs. In summary, either price pulls back further and retests the 575 level, or it pushes higher from here and retests a broad resistance zone. Momentum favors the push to resistance, but what kind of risk must you face at current levels? Would you be okay with taking a swing trade now, and then watch it pull back 100 points all while hoping it recovers? That is not the kind of trade that we would call whether it works out or not. Controlling risk is our primary concern, especially when sharing signals with the community. Forcing a trade is one of the more expensive bad habits that newer traders must shake as soon as possible. At S.C. we don't force trades, we wait until market variables line up so that we have a much better chance of coming out ahead consistently and avoiding low quality setups that randomly yield profits. The value is not in the profit, it is in the repetition. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
19
HOW IS BTC GOING TO FALL ? THIS IS HOW IT'S GOING TO BE -UPDATEHi Trading Viewers, A few days ago, I posted a similar projection, but it wasn't quite perfect. So, I am updating it here. How to Spot a bear wave ? How to spot the beginning of a Bull wave ? It is probably the hardest job on trading. It means to find the very bottom of the price, before it goes up for a long run. Panic or Excitement are common, and shake the market. Most traders already felt that market is heating up, but to know the best price to enter before the bullish momentum really comes is something difficult. Now, bulls are trying really hard to get the price up, but they cannot pull price through MA 100, this is a wall. RED ARROW DOWN should be the start of the fall on daily chart. For more information check the related charts below. Feel free to: comment, suggest better ideas, ask questions inbox, help me improve, post a better chart on the comment, and GIVE A LIKE or FOLLOW. GOOD LUCK. GOOD PROFIT.
Short
by EDWARDCASHTRADER
95
BTCUSD: Bullish Price Action But Unattractive Location?BTCUSD update: Price is fluctuating within a reversal zone defined by the 9861 boundary level. The fact that price does not reject this level quickly can be interpreted as a sign of strength but being in an unattractive location along with no trade signal prevents us from issuing a buy signal. Even if price appears to by going higher. Price is still fluctuating above the bullish trend line but alone, that is not a reason to justify taking a risk. The purpose of a trade setup is to provide a visual representation of a market condition that offers a specific and repetitive advantage. Setups help to filter out randomness in our trading performance and also help prevent the typical reactionary trade that is so common to the market herd. And right now in this market, there is no setup. As I have written before, reactive trading that results in a profit is nothing more than reinforcement of ineffective behavior. That same trade over a large number of repetitions will result in an overall loss in the long run. That is why even if this market goes higher from this point, it is a losing proposition because of the potential future losses that will result from this ineffective behavior or bad habit that you will be reinforcing. 8514 which is the .382 of the recent bullish structure is the nearest level that we are waiting for in order to go long again. Price has to produce a reversal pattern there, otherwise again there will be no reason to take risk. In summary, until 9861 is taken out and a new higher low formation is established, this market does not offer any attractive opportunities in terms of reward/risk at the moment. Being in a reversal zone increases the chances that this market will pullback even though that often happens much faster at levels such as these. Don't let greed drive you into reactive trading even if the market goes higher without you. You may turn a profit this time, but the next 8 times you attempt to trade a similar situation, you will give back your profit and then some. Opportunities in financial markets are infinite, while your capital is not. Missing a market move is only emotionally painful, as long as you let your emotions drive your decisions. Know your levels, know your setup and wait, that alone will put you in a more advantageous position over the herd in the long run. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
32
BTCUSD: Retracing Into Resistance Makes Longs Less Attractive?BTCUSD update: Price is sitting at the old support/new resistance level of 9225 after an attempt to retrace higher. Even though price is still above the bullish trend line, it is not the best scenario for a swing trade long because there is no clearly defined setup. Setups are important because not only do they indicate an increased probability of a particular outcome, but they also clearly define risk. In the current situation, there is no meaningful setup even though it is possible to define a level of risk. 8652 is the newly printed swing low that the bullish trend line has shifted to, but the bullish candle off of this level is nothing more than a random candle. This condition does not mean a long trade will not work, the problem is there is no distinct advantage. The whole point of using particular trading criteria is to help filter out randomness. The structure in place right now can go either way but has a slight bias to the bullish side since it is above the higher sloping trend line. For us to issue a trade signal, it has to have a higher probability of following through the way we anticipate, and that is why we wait for particular setups, not random formations. Even though price may push higher (with no particular setup) it is going back into a reversal zone that is defined by the 9861 high. This is an area that is attractive for selling, not buying in general (there are exceptions, like our recent long signal, but that comes with a very well defined setup). Longs in this area particularly carry more risk for this reason. The level that I am waiting for is the 8514 support (.382 of recent bullish swing). This is below the trend line, but still within an acceptable location for trend continuation to occur. IF price can retrace back to this area and show a reversal pattern, that is the higher probability area of a swing trade long at this point. In summary, bullish momentum is clearly in control. A higher high is likely, but risk remains high at this level, especially with no setup. If anything, this price action offers a light profit taking opportunity for those traders who didn't reduce their risk the first time price pushed into this area. Let the market find a level that offers more in terms of probability and reward/risk. Random price action offers no distinct advantage which often reinforces ineffective behavior over the long run when the outcome of a trade happens to be positive. Profitable trades for the wrong reasons lead to bad habits which is one of the reasons why it is so difficult to achieve consistency as a short term trader. Be patient, and let the market meet your criteria rather than react to the perceived possibility of a profit. Check out our performance spread sheet at S.C. to see the most recent trade that reached our predetermined target during the peak of this recent move. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
21
S&P500: Avoid The Middle And Wait For These Levels.S&P500 update: This market is consolidating as evidenced by the converging trend lines on this chart. Price is gyrating inside the middle of the range which means this is the lowest probability area to put on a swing trade long or short. The 2652 level is the .382 of the recent bullish structure, it also represents the middle of the range at the moment. There is no advantage to trading the middle since price action is most random here. There was a pin bar, tweezer bottom candle combination off of the 2615 support level which served as a long trigger, but because of the location, this is a low probability scenario for a swing trade long. On the other hand, for day trading or scalping purposes, this trigger offered plenty of opportunity since profits are generally taken quickly when employing such short term strategies. The next most attractive level for a swing trade long is the mid to low 2590s. Not only is this within the 2615 to 2587 support zone (.618 of recent bullish structure), it is also within a minor reversal zone boundary. That is where we want to see bullish reversal patterns that offer well defined risk levels. Keep in mind, if price continues higher from current levels, and breaks the 2690s, a retest of the 2710 to 2751 (.618 of recent bearish structure) would be more likely and that is the area to consider for swing trade or day trade shorts. You do not have to trade the S&P futures outright in order to capitalize on this information. At S,C, we use the S&P to help time stock and options trades, since it serves as a gauge for the broader markets. Make sure to check out our stock and option performance page if you are a more advanced investor.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MarcPMarkets
2
BTC - Where is the Bottom ?? Buy Signal.To spot the very beginning of a new wave, is probably the hardest job on trading. It means to find the very bottom of the price, before it goes up for good. Because, when it is close to happen, market gets fast trades and moves. Panic or Excitement are common, and shake the market. This is the first time the Moving Water is trying o catch it. Most traders already felt that market is heating up, but to know the best price to enter before the bullish momentum really comes is something difficult. So far The MOVING WATER HAS 98% ACCURACY. Let's hope it keeps rocking the Bots. For more information check the related charts below. GOOD LUCK. GOOD PROFIT.
Long
by EDWARDCASHTRADER
33
GBPUSD: Good Level For Reversal? Candles Need To Agree.GBPUSD update: Price has pushed below the bullish trend line and has tested the 1.3965 previous low. It went as low as 1.3918 which is not far from the 1.3883 reversal zone boundary. This is an area that I am watching for swing trade longs. Even though you can make an argument that the current price is within the middle of a very broad range, the fact that there is a reversal zone boundary nearby carries more weight. Understanding context is what allows me to see the greater chance of a bullish retrace in this area. Any retest of the low 1.3900s or 1.3880 area is the prime area to watch for reversal signals such as a bullish pin bar, or engulfing pattern, etc. The nearest resistance serves as a reasonable swing trade target. 1.4095 is the .382 of the current bearish swing and offers an adequate target if a long signal is taken. Keep in mind, a trade setup is not complete unless a trigger and stop are defined and at this point neither are clear. If price continues through the reversal zone boundary, I would avoid any swing trade longs until stability returns to this market. Remember the bigger picture (Elliott Wave chart is on S.C.) implies weakness which means long trades offer less potential in my opinion. More detailed analysis to follow in the analysis area of S.C.
by MarcPMarkets
1
BTCUSD: Continuation Pattern Forming. Is The Trigger Worth It?BTCUSD update: Price is poised to make a higher high and possibly break the 9225 old support/new resistance level which can lead price up to the 9861 reversal zone boundary. Along with this possibility, an aggressive swing trade setup is developing as I write this. Is the trigger worth entering? In recent reports, I have been writing about how not all signals are equal and how buying supports is more effective than buying highs in strong markets. There are exceptions, and usually they are based on how well defined the setup is, what kind of obstacles the trade is facing, and how clear the momentum is. In other words, context strongly defines whether or not it is worth taking the risk, in conjunction with how aggressive you choose to be. In this case, there is an inside bar that has appeared, supported by a previous higher low formation and clearly positive sloping trend line. Chances are a break out from this inside bar will lead price to the 9225 level which is a historical level that has affected price previously (see chart). Since buyers are in control, it is not unreasonable to expect an attempt toward the 9861 level which is the reversal zone boundary relative to the 9225 high. If the bullish trend line stays intact, and price breaks the 9048 trigger, you can risk about 300 points to potentially make 600 to 700 points based on a conservative target. The reward/risk is attractive and the current price structure (mini consolidation) is typically a trend continuation pattern. What makes this trade setup riskier is the fact that price has not retraced to a reasonable support (which doesn't always happen in strong markets). That is the aggressive trade idea while the more conservative idea is to wait for a retrace back to the 8108 level which is the .382 of the current bullish structure. The immediate trend line would be compromised, but as long as price maintains this level and establishes a reversal pattern off of it, often the next move is at least a retest of the previous high. It is more conservative because you are buying at a more attractive price along with a higher probability of retesting a predetermined level (previous peak). In summary. buying near resistance levels is often a bad idea but occasionally there are exceptions. Experience and understanding context along with your capacity to undertake the associated risk determine if this type of setup fits into your trading plan. A shallow retrace such as this are common in strong market environments and can offer a structured way to participate even at less attractive levels. Make sure to check out our regular updates on S.C. about this potential swing trade and how we decide to participate if it triggers a long. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
13
HOW PRICE MOVES ON THE MARKET ?? Why Up or Down ??1. Bid (Demand) X Offer (Availability) The bid price is the highest publicized price a buyer is posting an order to buy at. The offer price is the lowest advertised price a seller is posting an order to sell at. 2. A trader can choose to buy at the ask price, or sell to the bid price. This will create an instant transaction. 3. A trader may also choose to put out a bid or offer at any price they desire, but there is no guarantee another trader will transact with that order. 4. Assume someone is selling 1 BTC at $19.999. If someone buys it, it will no longer be available. The next offer may be to sell 1 BTC at $20.100. If someone buys, or the seller cancels their order, then that order disappears and the offer price moves to the next available price someone is selling at, let's say $20.150. 5. If the buying was big enough to remove all BTC offers up to $20.150, then price moves up. 6. The same thing happens on the bid. Transactions may occur at a furious pace. People are biding and offering at different prices, in different quantities, and they can cancel or change those orders at any time causing the bid and ask to change. Other traders may not post bid or offers, but rather simply transacting at the bids and offers currently available. 7. When transactions occur at the offer, this is called buy volume, and when transactions occur at the bid this is called sell volume. When a sell order comes into the market that is bigger than the number shares available at the current bid, then the bid price will drop, because all those shares at the current bid are absorbed by the selling. When a buy order comes into the market that is bigger than the number of shares available at the current offer, then offer price will move up, because all those shares at the current offer are absorbed by the buying. 8. Price can move quickly or slowly depending on how aggressive the buyers and sellers are. The price can move very quickly is someone puts out a big market buy/sell order. GOOD LUCK. GOOD PROFIT.
by EDWARDCASHTRADER
5
BTCUSD: Great Setup, Not So Great Location.BTCUSD Update: A higher low formation appeared off of the 7823 low and price took out the 8185 high during the previous candle, but we did not issue a trade signal. Why? This price action is occurring within a resistance zone which increases the risk for initiating long swing trades significantly. It took me quite a few years to figure out that not all signals are created equal. Context offers a way to gauge the likelihood of the expected outcome and this has nothing to do with complicated formulas. It is all about having a way to organize market information and compare unfolding ideas to best practices, or specific criteria to justify risk. Our criteria is very well defined and this is what acts as a signal filter. Higher risk trade ideas, even though they produce profitable trades at times, are not consistent enough in the long run. Consistency over the long run is a defining factor when it comes to professional speculation. Best practices dictate that buying into a resistance is generally a bad idea and that is exactly where this buy trigger has appeared. I wrote about this specifically when I updated the BTC analysis on S.C. yesterday. The 8091 to 8543 resistance zone is the .618 area relative to the recent bearish structure. Buying in this zone carries more risk on this particular time frame when it comes to evaluating a potential swing trade long. The more attractive location for this setup is the 7553 level (.382 of recent bullish swing) because of it's proportion to the current price structure and because it is where the recently established bullish trend line is located. This support level is a much better place for a buy signal to appear in terms of reward/risk and expected outcome. The problem is the market may or may NOT retest this level. Waiting for a setup to occur at this level or having the patience to not react if the market continues higher from the current level is what separates the rational traders from the herd. The herd reacts to anything because it is driven by greed. The rational trader wants to make money too, but waits until conditions are most favorable and is willing to forfeit market moves that promote bad habits and reduce consistency over the long run. Just like a fisherman anchors his boat in a "good spot" and waits for the fish to find him, he does not chase after the fish. In summary, this market is showing an attractive structure that implies further strength, but what is not immediately apparent is the risk. There is no particular advantage in a situation like this and the outcome is more random. As price action traders, we do not want random because it does not lead to consistency in the long run. So even if this trade setup produces a favorable outcome, we know that if you take this same trade 100 times, the majority of the time you will lose. If this bullish setup does not get through the resistance zone, it will more than likely drift lower into the support level that is more in line with our swing trade plan. At S.C., we prefer quality over quantity and have no problem watching higher risk setups move without us. Referring back to the fishing analogy, you cannot control the fish, but you can control the action you take to increase the chances of catching one and trading works the same way. This is one of those situations. Questions and comments welcome (We post more technical versions of these details on S.C. first. Make sure to check updates there).
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
21
S&P500 Futures: Resistance Zone Means Vulnerable Market?S&P500 Update: The futures are now pushing into a minor resistance zone between 2710 and 2746. This is a more attractive area for selling and serves as a very convenient location for bearish catalysts to affect the market. We are in the middle of earnings and ongoing geopolitical drama. Two highly potent sources for bearish catalysts. If a bearish reversal pattern appears within the 2710 to 2746 resistance zone (.618 area of recent bearish swing), then price can reasonably retrace back to the 2652 level (.382 of current bullish swing) before it finds support. Keep in mind, if negative news happens to come out, it usually gets all the blame for the resulting bearish price action. As you can see on this chart though, price is already in an area that would be more attractive to bears to begin with. Often news catalysts drive price along the path that is was going to take anyway, just much faster. So what can we gather from this chart within the context of this environment? The stock market is vulnerable to selling as a whole, and all it needs is a spark to start the party. This does not mean price can't break higher on a positive catalyst, it's just that market structure points to more potential on the short side at such a level. On S.C. we cover stocks and options trades and use the S&P as a helpful gauge when it comes to broader market timing and relative strength. You can see recent trades on our Stocks and Options performance sheet.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MarcPMarkets
3
GBPUSD: Price Pushing Into Key Resistance With No Bearish Signs.GBPUSD: Price is now pushing into the extreme zone which has a defined upper resistance boundary of 1.4423. Price is also sitting just above the 1.4345 high that was established back in January. The probability of a bearish reversal is high, BUT until there is confirmation, the bullish momentum can continue to drive price higher. Keep in mind, if price is going to reject a resistance level, it usually happens fast. As long as price lingers in this area, or slowly grinds higher, that is a sign of strength. I do not buy highs, I look to sell them, but only under very specific conditions. If the market cannot produce the criteria that I am looking for when it comes to initiating a swing trade short, then I avoid completely. Buying a breakout here is high risk in my opinion. If I am going to capitalize on the long side, I prefer to take risk at more attractive prices. In this case, I am watching the 1.4115 to 1.4054 area (.618 relative to recent bullish swing) which is a minor support. Otherwise my position is neutral which means I have no position. Make sure to check out S.C. for updates, because if a swing trade short setup develops, that is where the details will be.
by MarcPMarkets
1
BTCUSD: Squeeze Is Just Beginning. Waiting For A Retrace.BTCUSD update: Now you know what a short squeeze looks like. After the inside bar long trigger at 6900, price climbed dramatically and took out the 7492 level within hours. In that same move, price compromised the bearish trend line that has been intact since the beginning of this year. The swing trade that was called on S.C. reached its target for a 560 point profit. Andrew pointed out that short interest has been at extreme highs for at least two weeks now and this is the fuel that drives the squeeze once it triggers. The herd, which is always wrong at tops and bottoms, was short at the bottom. Stop orders and margin liquidations on top of new buyers jumping in are driving price into the next resistance zone as I write this. This is the type of price action that signals the bulls have taken control. The 7490 level was the .382 of the recent bearish swing which helped to define that bearish momentum was intact. That level was blown through the second time price tested it. The next important level was the bearish trend line in the 7800 area which was also blown through. These are the confirmations that I look for to indicate a trend reversal is in effect. What does all this mean? On pullbacks, support is more likely to hold and resistances more likely to break. The 8091 to 8543 resistance zone (.618 of recent bearish swing) is a minor area but within it, the 8442 level is the .382 resistance relative to the broader bearish structure measured from the 11549 high. If price pushes this level, that is further confirmation that the next retrace should lead to a higher high and will serve as a high probability buying opportunity. Where is a reasonable area to anticipate a retrace? The 7076 to 6815 minor support zone (.618 of current bullish swing). That is the area we will be looking for reversal patterns for another swing trade long. In summary, we have been writing about bullish signs for weeks and have been maintaining long inventory as well (go back and read all the reports). Remember this market has been sitting in the largest support zone relative to the entire bullish structure up to 20K. The chances of it finding support and developing a bottom are high and now it is starting to unfold. Bottoming is a process, and this impressive squeeze is the initial move that establishes a broad double bottom. If you missed the move, there is no need to feel bad because there are always more opportunities. Keep an eye on S.C. because when we call the next swing trade, the details will be there. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
72
BTCUSD: 6900 Trigger Near Upon Subtle Bullish Signs.BTCUSD update: The initial bearish trend line is clearly broken, and an inside bar has appeared (previous candle). All of this is happening around the 6805 reversal zone boundary. This market is still in the process of setting up for a broader move higher in my opinion. Here is the swing trade trigger to look for: Long 6900 Stop 6488 Target 7460. R:R Approx 1:1. These subtle changes should not be all that surprising. They are unfolding within the largest support zone relative to this market since the sub 200 lows. The 8171 to 4983 support zone (.618 area of entire bullish structure) has been in play since the 6K low in February. As I have written in previous reports, a broader bottom is a process. IF price breaks the 7492 minor resistance (.382 of recent bearish swing), that will provide confirmation that a broader bullish move is in progress. A broader move higher from current levels can lead this market back to the low 8Ks at minimum over the next couple of weeks. 6897 is the inside bar high and serves as a long trigger for a swing trade, while the 6650 and 6500 levels serve as stops. The reward risk is still very favorable to the bullish side because the minimum target is the 7492 level. So you are risking 300 to 400 points to potentially make around 600 at least. All this market needs is a catalyst or some typical tech drama to motivate a short squeeze. Price action is leaning toward the bullish side in a way that is not obvious to the crowd. This is what opportunities look like. As always, these signs can be negated by any bearish surprise, but I think the potential is very limited. This market can still retest the 6204 and even 6K, so it is important to always be prepared for those scenarios. Speculating is not about precision, it is about constantly adjusting. In summary, price action is coiling around a reversal zone boundary near a major low within a broader support zone. You can't ask for a more attractive situation that isn't obvious to the market crowd. The appearance of the inside bar provides technical structure for a long trigger with well defined risk. If this market starts breaking near by resistance levels, it will be confirming a broad double bottom which can eventually lead back to 10K, it is just a matter of time and catalyst. The price action story is saying that the shorts are vulnerable in an area that still looks bearish to the untrained eye. Learn to recognize the subtle signs, not the obvious ones and one way to accomplish that is to acknowledge what the market is NOT doing, rather than always focusing on what it is. Questions and comments welcome. (See trade signal updates on S.C.).
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by MarcPMarkets
14
GBPUSD: Minor Resistance Zone Not Affecting Buyers. Yet?GBPUSD update: Momentum is bullish as price is within a minor resistance zone between 1.4138 and 1.4184. At the moment there is no selling activity which means it is likely to continue higher. For those of you who don't know, we cover many markets at S.C. Forex is one such market and a technical perspective is published frequently there. What I am presenting here is an example. With the bullish trend line far from beyond compromised, price is more likely to reach the 1.4301 reversal zone boundary. Forex is a market that I trade both long and short, on a day trading and swing trading basis. This means that IF price action establishes a clear reversal pattern near the 1.4301 area, I will be open to looking for shorts, even in the face of a generally bullish trend. The key to navigating markets like these is having realistic expectations that are relative to market structure, not random opinions or feelings. If price never produces the bearish signs that I would look for, then I stay out and wait for the next setup. I share this perspective frequently on S.C., You will see updates to this perspective and any trade calls there. Comments and questions welcome (PM for response).
by MarcPMarkets
3
ETHUSD: Classic Breakout In Progress, But Watch 432 Resistance?ETHUSD Update: This market has established a double bottom formation around the 375 level and is now attempting to break out. I have placed a limit order to buy at 392 with a STOP at 365 and Target of 445. This is a potential swing trade with almost 2:1 reward/risk. The current price action at the 416 level (at the time of this writing) is tempting but the problem is price is about to enter a minor bearish reversal zone (432 reversal zone boundary) . The double bottom structure is in place and the initial bearish trend line broken so the bullish signs are there, but being on the conservative side, I would rather capitalize on the possibility of a shallow retrace. There is a minor .618 support in the 380s and relative to the double bottom, offers much lower risk in terms of placing a stop. I consider placing a limit order under the market like this an aggressive choice for me compared to waiting for price to retrace and then show evidence of a clear reversal formation like a pin bar at the predetermined entry area, but I am willing to take that chance in this particular situation. The best swing trade entry was the break above the 372 inside bar which occurred on Friday. It offered the lowest risk and is now paying off nicely if anyone got in there. I mention this, even though I missed this entry, because this is what a low risk entry trigger looks like. For those who are more aggressive, you can consider a long around the current break out level which is 418 (price has moved to 423 as I write this) , but the risk of a fake out is high. This is why I prefer to place a limit order under the market. If you do enter here, I think it makes sense to enter half of your original size here, and place an order for the other half under the market. This way, if the market continues higher, you are still benefiting. If the market fakes out instead, your risk is lower (only half of your original position) and you have an order in place to get a better price. You have to decide which is a better scenario for you. If the 432 reversal zone boundary is taken out and price closes above it, then the bullish momentum is more likely to continue to the 451 level which is the .382 of the recent bearish structure. This is why I chose the 445 level as a potential target IF this market fills my order at 392. In summary, the current price action is presenting a classic break out formation. Certainly a welcome situation that makes for a much stronger bullish argument. The problem with buying here is the high possibility of a fake out. It does not mean it WILL happen, but I prefer to buy near supports, not resistances. If the market does not retrace, and my limit order never gets filled, that is okay. I will cancel it and be prepared to enter on the next retrace, whether it is a shallow one or deeper one. Either way, this double bottom formation signals a short term trend reversal that can lead prices back to the high 400's to low 500's over the next week. Make sure to check out the free analysis on S.C. that will provide more detail on this market as it continues. Questions and comments welcome. (I am going to change up my writing schedule. I will post a new idea every other day, and an update on the alternate days. This means tomorrow I will post an update to this report only, rather than a new report.)
BITFINEX:ETHUSDLong
by MarcPMarkets
12
BTCUSD: Revisiting 8400 Support Ares. Long Still In Play.BTCUSD update: After triggering a long at 8721 and pushing back to 9K, price has retraced back to the 8412 support level. This situation is exactly why you do not chase, and instead place a limit order below the market when you miss a trigger. The swing trade limit buy filled at 8815, which was posted on S.C. website. This price action is tricky to say the least. The outside bar that developed and triggered the long was followed by a bearish pin bar which has taken price back to the 8412 level (.382 of recent bullish swing). This formation has established a lower high formation off of the 9K area. Is this the beginning of a new bearish movement? In my opinion, NO and the reason is: price still has a good chance of producing a failed low formation just above the 8090 level (minor reversal zone boundary). If this scenario unfolds, the swing trade will be stopped out, but if a reversal pattern develops in this area, I will be looking for another long. If you missed the swing trade entry, you still have a chance to get in but a long trigger needs to occur. This can happen in a number of ways which I am not going to explain here. What IF price breaks below 8093? That would increase the possibility of retesting the 7776 and 7401 areas respectively. Remember these areas are supports, and shorting into them is extremely risky unless you know exactly what you are doing and have the ability to exit the market quickly if you have to. I do not short these markets, and if I was going to, it would not be at these major support areas. In summary, my recent reports have been brief because I have been in the Bradenton area of Florida presenting to groups. I have met some amazing people here and had the opportunity to network with very impressive talent. As far as this trade goes, I have been managing inventory for months now and continue to selectively add to it. Keep in mind position trading and swing trading are two separate strategies which contain different stops and targets. For more details on the active swing trade and decisions for my position trade, you can go to S.C. which is still being populated with information. As long as this market maintains the current supports, I believe it is reasonable to anticipate higher prices over the next week at least. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
26
BTCUSD: Kicker Formation Begins New Movement Toward 10K?BTCUSD update: Price jumped from the low of 7240 to 8717 in 48 hours which signals the possible beginning of the next broader bullish movement which can lead prices back to the 10K area. This market needs to prove it's new found strength by presenting a higher low formation. In previous reports I wrote about the significance of the reversal zones, especially since they are overlapping a major support area. These zones (which are contained by the red horizontal lines) are areas where reversals are high probability. When this market was pushing the lows, I specifically mentioned not to react, and instead plan ahead. Planning ahead means recognizing the significance of these levels, and knowing how you will act IF the market provides evidence that our hypothesis is true. That evidence came, first through the pin bar on this time frame, and then the follow through which is considered a "kicker" formation in candlestick terms. Even if you did not enter the market during this process, it should have been very clear to no longer be or think short. Now the questions is: Will this bullish momentum continue? Price is retracing slightly which is a good thing because this is where it must prove that it is no longer weak. It can present this evidence in a number of scenarios that you should be prepared for (planning ahead). The first scenario is the shallow retrace which can unfold from the current candle in the form of a small pin bar, especially if this configuration happens to also qualify as an inside bar (which it is at the moment, but has 14 hours to go so it still has time to change). The second scenario is the regular higher low where price retests 7776 area and generates a reversal candle. The third scenario is the failed low where price retests 7401 or 6941 and reverses quickly. The third scenario is the one that shakes out weak longs and sucks in oblivious shorts. IF price does not reverse after retesting the extreme low, then there is a bigger underlying problem in this market. Isn't the current swing high a lower high? And lower highs lead to lower lows? Yes to both questions but do not forget this has to be viewed in light of the context of the situation which carries more weight. The context is: This market is flirting with a major support zone, and just produced a significant price reversal formation. The fact that this reversal formation has appeared in a high probability area outweighs the structure of the previous short term trend (lower highs, lower lows). Knowing this is what allows you to anticipate and prepare, rather than react. In summary, analysis and trading are two separate processes that traders and investors often confuse as the same. In analysis we are evaluating and comparing market information in order to estimate what this market is most likely to do next, not what we are going to do next. Once we have a better idea and can assign loose probabilities or weights, we can then figure out what we are willing to do: Buy, sell or nothing. There are 3 bullish scenarios that I outlined above that can appear. There is one bearish scenario which is simply a dramatic new low. It is now up to you to recognize which scenario the market decides to choose, and then execute your trading plan. That plan which should be prepared ahead of time should define everything you do from the triggers to enter, the time horizon, size and level of risk along with profit target expectations. And out of all these factors, time horizon is most important because it provides the foundation for how you define everything else. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
23