Bullishpattern
ON Semi is fundamentally undervalued and ready for a reversalTechnical View
NASDAQ:ON ON bounce off from a bigger support area from 2022 at around $53 building an ascending triangle. We have a gap above our current price (which can function as a magnet for the stock price). A smaller resistance at $60 might be our first target and the bigger resistance at $77 could be our final target resulting in 36% ROI. The trade would be invalidated below $50. Since this is a bigger swing trade, I would not put my SL to close to the current stock price. If you’re interested why this is a mid- to long-term swing trade read the fundamental information below.
Support Zones
$50-53
Target Zones
$60
$77
Fundamental View
ON Semiconductor concluded the third quarter of 2024 with revenue amounting to $1,762 million, reflecting a 2% increase from the second quarter but a -19.2% year-over-year decline. Nevertheless, the revenue for the quarter exceeded the consensus estimate by 0.70%. The most significant revenue losses were observed in the industrial end-market, with figures reaching $439.90 million compared to the average estimate of $464.97 million, marking a -28.6% decrease.
The gross margin experienced a 2% improvement, now constituting 45.4% of total revenue. Looking ahead, the acquisition of GlobalFoundries’ New York plant is anticipated to enhance the company's chip production capabilities. This facility is expected to maintain consistent production costs while simultaneously increasing production efficiency, in anticipation of a future rise in demand.
The stock has decreased by 11.26% on a year-to-date basis, with a reported trailing twelve months (TTM) earnings per share (EPS) of $4.03. Management has reported having over $1 billion in free cash flow and plans, according to Barron’s, to utilize half of each quarter’s cash flow to repurchase shares under onsemi’s Share Repurchase Program. The reduction in investments will contribute to increasing free cash flow margins, thereby reinforcing OnSemi’s objective of returning 50% of free cash flow to investors. This, combined with a projected slight improvement in sales growth and profitability, is expected to elevate EPS to $7.11 by 2027.
Currently, the company's valuation appears reasonable, trading at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.49, which is lower than 90% of the time over the past five years and significantly beneath the S&P 500 P/E ratio as well as the industry median P/E of 25.4. Based on analysts' projections for EPS and maintaining a steady P/E ratio, the company is anticipated to reach a price of $95.91 within the next two years. While this scenario may seem overly optimistic, it is evident that the market is currently undervaluing the stock, especially when compared to its main competitors, such as Texas Instruments and Analog Devices.
Since EV is a superior trend I don’t think Trumps political decision will have an impact. In addition, “Vice President” Musk has a, let’s say, not so little interest in selling more EVs.
ALGO looks to be setting up nicely for another spectacular move.Algorand is setting up nicely within the bull flag pattern it's currently trading in. Compared to many other coveted cryptos, ALGO's gains have been very reserved compared to its structure (maximum supply). I do believe that we are going to see ALGO outperform on the next leg, as it has some catching up to do, especially when compared to what it has done in past bull run cycles.
Good luck, and always use a stop loss!
Boeing is ready for next leg up to $200On December 10, 2024, we had a look at the weekly chart of NYSE:BA Boeing and it was a very good opportunity to get into this stock. Since then, we made over 20% in under one month.
After consolidating for nearly three weeks, we may have another chance to get in for the next leg up to $200. The only thing to worry about are the earnings on January 28. Those could have a huge impact on the stock price, but chances are the impact will be positive. Since 2024 was a very challenging year for Boeing with lower net orders booked compared to Airbus the comparisons are much easier to beat than it is for Airbus.
Boeing experienced a decline in various metrics last year. The company recorded 569 gross orders, representing a 61% decrease compared to the previous year. Cancellations increased by 50 units, mainly due to the anticipated cancellation of 135 jets ordered by Jet Airways. Net orders fell by 71% to 377 orders, and the net order value also decreased by 71% to $33 billion. This reduction in orders is attributed to the uncertainty surrounding Boeing's production schedule, which makes it less attractive for airplane orders. Deliveries fell by 34% to 348, and the delivery value decreased by 35% to $26.1 billion due to the grounding of the Boeing 737 MAX 9 and a subsequent strike.
If we assume no further crashes or problems with Boeing aircrafts the numbers are easier to beat, and we come from a very low base. In addition, most analysts are quite conservative right now.
Looking at the technical setup we just bounced from the 0.382 fib from the current upward movement. Below the fib we have another support at around $160 as well as a resistance at $200 with an open gap. Assuming no surprises during the earnings we’re up for another leg up to $200 (15% ROI).
Target Zones
$198-200
Support Zones
$165
$160
ADBE near Confluence Support - 33% ROI PossibleNASDAQ:ADBE is currently nearing a confluence support (an area where multiple support elements are combined) at around $410-$420. Nevertheless, opening a first position right now is already an option given the attractive valuation and the horizontal support (blue zone). In addition there are two big daily gaps (red zones) above the current price giving us some potential pulling factor towards $580. The trendline you can see is very weak and has only two real re-tests in October 2022. So, take that with a grain of salt and try to concentrate more on the horizontal support and the $410-$420 area (61.8 fib).
Looking at fundamentals (I know most of you are not really interested in such things, but they do help with swing trades) we can see a price-to-sales ratio of 9.xx suggesting upside of 50% when comparing it to the long-term average of 14.xx. ARR increased 23% YoY to $3.48B. In terms of AI, firefly generated more than 16 billion assets so far, and FY24 revenue increased by a little more than 11% to $21.51B. Current PE ratio is just short of 22.
So, adding here and more towards that $410 will give us a huge potential ROI over the next couple of months.
Support Zones
$440
$410-420
Targe Zones
$540
$580-600
BTC Analysis BINANCE:BTCUSD
Approximately a month ago, Bitcoin (BTC) reached $108,000, followed by a significant drop to $90,000. A strong support zone formed around $92,000, leading to a rebound. We also had a crucial zone at $99,000 to $100,000, which has been broken and flipped into support.
Currently, as long as the price remains above this zone, there's a strong possibility of moving toward higher levels, potentially reaching around $110,000.
BINANCE:BTCUSD
Solana ($SOL) Cup and Handle offers 65% Gain PotentialTaking a look at Solana on the Weekly timeframe, i've drawn out this cup and handle pattern:
As we can see here, the swing low of $8 to the swing high of $264 provides a measurement we can use from the recent low of $169. When we pair that with a fib extension we have a perfect 1.618 that aligns with this price target of around $400. Notice, however, that we also have another potential swing low and a 1.272 fib extension with a price target of around $350.
Given the bullishness of CRYPTOCAP:SOL , being the best crypto in the space, and the catalyst $TRUMP has brought, introducing the general public to its fantastic user experience, low fees, and quick transfer speeds, the bull case for SOL is quite apparent.
Howevever, I would be remiss not to point out the bear case that is showing itself here. At least for the short term:
As you can see, this daily rising wedge has been forming since April. We've fallen out of it, bounced off the bottom, and rocketed back into it only to hit the top of the inside of the wedge at $295 and be rejected back below the previous ATH of $264.
I see the 200-day MA (Purple line) as my key support level to remain bullish, and has proved to be a strong buy level. I managed to catch it at $175 on the latest attempt to breach that led to a massive move to $295.
One should always consider both the bull and bear cases and manage risk accordingly.
This is for informational purposes only and not a suggestion or recommendation to buy or sell any asset or otherwise. You are responsible for your own decisions no matter where you get information. Never invest if you can't afford it and consider all investing gambling.
- Shadowfigure
Bull Flag on BTC Daily!!!The cryptocurrency market is once again at the edge of a seismic shift. Following the recent uptrend, Bitcoin (BTC) has established a formidable Bull Flag on the daily chart. By utilizing a trend-based Fibonacci extension on top of the current Bull Flag, we can identify the coveted 'golden pocket' positioned at $126,000, with the subsequent target level at an impressive $185,000.
If historical patterns hold true, this year is set to be another record-breaking period for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Investors and enthusiasts alike should prepare for a potentially parabolic movement. Fasten your seat belts, an exciting journey awaits.
ZEN Trade Setup: Ride the Wave to +50% ProfitAfter a strong bullish impulse, ZEN completed a 5-wave structure resulting in a +72% price increase and successfully took out a key high. This marked a potential short trade opportunity at the key resistance level.
Subsequently, the price retraced significantly, forming a pullback into the golden pocket (0.618–0.65 Fibonacci retracement), a high-probability buying zone. This corrective move also completed a 5-wave structure to the downside, providing a favorable long trade opportunity with a compelling Risk-to-Reward (R:R) ratio of 3:1.
The target for this long trade is the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of the entire impulse wave at $35.86, representing a potential upside of nearly 50%. Additionally, the negative 0.234 Fibonacci level at $35.98 aligns closely with this target, creating a good confluence zone.
Key Levels:
Entry Zone: $23–$25
Primary Target: $35.86 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement)
Confluence Level: $35.98 (Negative 0.234 Fibonacci extension)
Stop-Loss: Below the low of $21 for downside risk mitigation, DCA
ONDO ANALYSIS🔴 #ONDO Analysis : ❓❓
🔮There is a formation of "Bullish Pennant Pattern" in #ONDO in 2D time frame. We can expect around $1.58 bullish move if the price break the pattern.📈
⚡️What to do ?
👀Keep an eye on #ONDO price action. We can trade according to the chart and make some profits. ⚡️⚡️
#ONDO #Cryptocurrency #Breakout #DYOR
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HBAR’s Next Support and Resistance TargetsHBAR hit a key high at $0.3922 but faced rejection, suggesting the formation of a trading range or a potential ABC corrective structure. A developing head and shoulders pattern further signals possible bearish momentum in the short term.
Key levels and trade setups:
Short Setup:
Entry: Around the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the current wave
Stop Loss: Above the $0.3922 key high
Take Profit: Targeting the Fib Retracement 0.382 at $0.34356
R:R: A favorable 5:1 if taken from the 0.618 retracement or 2:1 when entering after losing the dOpen
Support Zone:
Anchored VWAP, weekly level and Fibonacci speed fan 0.618, depending on timing, align near $0.34356–$0.33284. This confluence provides a robust area for potential price bounces.
Long Setup:
Entry: Within the support zone, contingent on bullish confirmation
Stop Loss: Below the support zone
LTC Trade Zones: Short or Long?LTC has been making some moves recently, with a solid rise getting close to a key high. But the current price action hints at an ABC corrective structure, so a pullback could be on the way.
Short Setup:
Entry: Between the 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci retracement of the current wave
Stop Loss: $141.4 (the previous high)
Target: $130.7
R:R: About 2:1
Long Setup:
Entry: Around $130, with confirmation
Stop Loss: $126.45
Targets:
First at $134
Second at $147 (the key high)
R:R: A nice 5:1 potential
Why These Levels?
The $130 support zone lines up with the 1:1 Trend-Based Fibonacci Extension ($130.29)
It’s also near a previous swing high, adding more weight to it as a strong level
Plan:
If price moves into the retracement zone, a short trade targeting $130 makes sense
If it hits the $130 support and shows strength, a long setup targeting $134 and $147 could be a great play
BTC Correction Incoming? Key Support Zones to MonitorOver the past 50+ days, Bitcoin has been consolidating within a well-defined range, with the all-time high (ATH) at 108K marking the upper boundary and 90K as the lower boundary. The current price action has formed a Head and Shoulders pattern, with the neckline positioned around 90K.
Volume and Recent Price Action
Volume has notably decreased compared to the elevated levels seen in November and December 2024, signaling weakening momentum.
Price rose significantly to 102.7K, reaching the 0.666 Fibonacci retracement level of the current downtrend, where it faced a sharp rejection. This rejection led Bitcoin to test the lows around 91.5K.
Key Resistance Levels
97K (POC): The Point of Control (POC) of the current range sits around 97K, which also aligns with the anchored VWAP taken from the all-time high.
98.3K (Fib 0.618): The Weekly Open (wOpen) coincides with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the current downward wave, making it a significant resistance level.
100K (Psychological Level): A critical psychological barrier, also serving as a key level for setting stop-loss orders for short positions.
Short Trade Setup
A short position could be built in the range of 97K-98.3K, with the following parameters:
Stop-Loss: Above 100K.
Target: 84-80K range.
Risk-to-Reward Ratio (R:R): A favorable 3:1 to 4:1, depending on laddered entries.
Key Support Levels and Confluence Zone (80K-83K Region)
The 80K-83K region stands out as a strong support zone due to multiple confluence factors:
1.) Fib Retracement Levels:
0.618 (82.7K): From the swing low of 67K to the ATH of 108K.
0.5 (80.45K): From the broader wave structure (52.5K to 108.35K).
Negative Fib -0.618 (81.1K): From the current downward wave.
2.) Anchored VWAP: Anchored from 6th September 2024, currently aligning with the 82K level.
3.) ]Fib Speed Fan (0.618): Taken from the low at 52.5K to the ATH, intersecting with the 80-82K region around mid-to-late January.
Long Trade Setup
The 80K-83K support zone presents a strong opportunity for a long position for those who missed the previous uptrend:
Entry Zone: Between 80K and 83K.
Stop-Loss: Below 78K or lower.
Target: 90K, which aligns with the neckline of the Head and Shoulders pattern.
Risk-to-Reward Ratio (R:R): Approximately 2:1 if entering from the 80K level.