The bulls havn't lost yet!Welcome to my daily market update (11/05/20):
• Damn, I wanted to post yesterday a market update but a few minutes right before I was done, the market went crazy, which is extremely fun!, my expectations were right, and we finally received my weekly red candle (Or did we? Few more hours to go xd), so I delayed my update until now.
• So what we have so far on mid-term for bullish?
- We are still riding the mid-term bullish trend, and just corrected to 0.6’ fib levels (Which is very good for such recovery), and used daily e50+e200 as support (Golden cross upon us?):
- We still have a gap to fill on after daily+weekly close:
- And we created a higher low on 4h (The real question is if we will create a higher high as well?):
- Now it’s good place to ladder bullish position, if we create higher high then most likely we are going to pass this 4h e21, and shoot to close CME:
• And what we have on the mid-term bear side?
- We are under the 4h e21 which we were riding so far, so it will act as resistance now.
- We didn’t create higher high yet so we might still create a lower high and a lower low, and on this case our next target is7750:
• Now don’t get me wrong, the mid-term is still bullish and might break through the the big-term trend, but we should not forget some keypoints:
1. All markets (Such as DowJones and S&P500 and others) pretty much exhausted with this recovery, and might start crushing the second wave (BTC will also crush on such moment, again)
2. Our big-term is still in this bearish channel (And now we have enough liquidity to push down, especially if close below the weekly e21):
3. The halving bullish narrative is almost over, the moment we pass this event, a lot of retail (And especially whales) might just dump their profits since the event is over.
• My recommendation for now, is to stay with the mid-term bullish trend which isn’t invalidated yet.
I personally as you well know, am a speculations trader, and thus I keep on focusing the shorts as I did so far, until we pass 10500 with enough confirmations that we are on a bullish market again.
Bullish Trend Line
SUM: Unusual volume off a rising TL SUM has bounced off a rising TL with a hammer candlestick and an unusually daily volume. In H1 chart, we have a nice breakout offering good levels for entry and stop loss.
Final push for the bulls? or just a reversal?Welcome to my market daily update:
• Daily: I don’t like how the daily RSI isn’t resting, many of you know how I love the OBV indicator, it is a very hard tool to expert it and I have my own way to confirm with it if we are in a bull run or not (Among other confirmations to support it which you must have), and as you can see in the daily chart:
most of the green arrows which confirming the last 2 bull runs for me (After confirming these with other aspects as well), are actually working out but with 2 exceptions (Yellow marks) due to RSI (Every time we have RSI overbought, it has a sudden pull out to give oscillators time to rest before the next move):
1. RSI didn’t rest, but it was during a confirmed strong bull run – it means buyers can easily continue buying and suppressing higher “over bought” areas, usually this break TA with over excitement, this
should be a warning sign as well that we are getting to the peak if this happens during a parabolic bull run.
2. RSI didn’t rest, but it was during a confirmed bear run – it means that there is a lot of activity from the bulls and that the speculations and excitement are too high because of an incoming event.
- This is just my own speculation as I’ve seen it in the past as well, this doesn’t mean that this is what will happen, because in overall the midterm market is extremely bullish which might lead to breaking
the big-term bearish market and start the next bull run (We ju, I personally don’t trade against the bigger picture trend unless I confirm that it is changed, so I prefer to stay bearish.
- But to our community we prefer the smarter way which is stay bullish trades as we are less focused on mid-term reversals, we prefer to focus on the strong mid-term trend as this gives the best results
and not counting on speculations if the overall market trend is changing or not.
______________________________________________________________________
• Weekly: 5 more days for halving, I expect next weekly to decide if to break this, we never ever had more then 8 weekly green candles, so are we getting ready for a final push this 8th week or are we going to heavily reject it? if we aren’t going to break above 9335 until weekend then I expect that we won’t see a 9th green candle and expect us to correct to at-least 8,300 because our next move, breaking below it will bring us to 7575, and going below it I suspect will continue the bearish channel which we’ve been riding for almost a whole year already since 14k, and if this happens then the halving effects will easily start the bull run in next 5-7 months like I keep repeating myself… I wish for the bulls to push harder and finish it up, but as they are exhausted and as we are right under the top channel, I won’t be surprised.
- Do notice that we are still inside the weekly cloud as well, which acts as a very heavy resistance for us
- And also notice that our weekly PA candle forming a hanging man candle – it means we might have ended our run as well as when it appears at peak of bullish move then reversal is the logical next move
• As I posted on my TG:
- “Im heavily shorted the market since 9300 on my trading portfolio (big bet), also I sold a lot of my long term portfolio assets, I really think this was the top on Crypto, if Im wrong I dont lose much as per
to my portfolio management and all I will feel is just missed out move, but if Im right this is going to be a very big jump for me. I will say this, we still decided to go long for our community as we prefer to
follow the midterm trend, but as I have been saying since I came back, just notice that the big term mood since 14k is still bearish, and smallterm vibe is showing a strong weakness from many aspects, so
Im staying with my risky bet..” – so I don’t mind if we fall 😉, as I usually trade for the bigger moves. But priority for our group is of-course bullish.
XAUUSD TRADING IDEAThis is my analysis and trading plan on XAUUSD i'm looking to long/buy from the 61.80 FIB retracement where the buy is indicated with several confirmations.
1. First confirmation is the double top which has formed at the area of resistance indicating a clear reversal sign with the two red arrow and fib rejection of 0.00 going for a short/sell down to 61.80 FIB to find a support and the second touch on the trend line in turn form a double bottom indicating a clear reversal sign with the two green arrow which will cause a spike up.
2. Second confirmation, the trend is bullish so i patiently wait for my analysis to play out giving me a clear and strong confirmation to buy/long.
RISK/REWARD RATIO @ 1:6
STOP LOSS @ 50 PIPS
TAKE PROFIT 3 @ 329 PIPS
I welcome all comments, feedback, ideas and sharing of knowledge.
Have a great trading week!
Disclaimer: (This is for educational purpose only. Thank You.)
GBPJPY TRADING IDEAThis is my analysis and trading plan on GBPJPY i'm looking to long/buy from the 61.80 FIB retracement where the buy zone is indicated with several confirmations.
1. First confirmation will be it's movement down to the area of resistance to form a double top which is yet to form indicating a clear reversal sign with the two red arrow and fib rejection of 0.00 going for a short/sell down to 61.80 FIB to find a support and that is the second touch on the bullish trend line indicating a clear reversal sign with the two green arrow and price will push up from there.
2. Second confirmation, the trend is bullish so i patiently wait for my analysis to play out giving me a clear and strong confirmation to buy/long.
RISK/REWARD RATIO @ 1:7
STOP LOSS @ 200 PIPS
TAKE PROFIT 3 @ 1534 PIPS
I welcome all comments, feedback, ideas and sharing of knowledge.
Have a great trading week!
Disclaimer: (This is for educational purpose only. Thank You.)
AUDUSD TRADING IDEAThis is my analysis and trading plan on AUDUSD i'm looking to long/buy from the 61.80 FIB retracement where the buy is indicated with several confirmations.
1. First confirmation will be it's movement down to retest the support and bounce back up to form a double top which is yet to form at the area of resistance indicating a clear reversal sign with the two red arrow and fib rejection of 0.00 going for a short/sell down to 61.80 FIB to find a support and in turn form a double bottom indicating a clear reversal sign with the two green arrow which will cause a spike up.
2. Second confirmation, the trend is bullish so i patiently wait for all my analysis to play out giving me a clear and strong confirmation to buy/long.
RISK/REWARD RATIO @ 1:6
STOP LOSS @ 200 PIPS
TAKE PROFIT 3 @ 1259 PIPS
I welcome all comments, feedback, ideas and sharing of knowledge.
Have a great trading week!
Disclaimer: (This is for educational purpose only. Thank You.)
EURUSD TRADING IDEAThis is my analysis and trading plan on EURUSD i'm looking to long/buy from the 61.80 FIB retracement where the buy is indicated with several confirmations.
1. First confirmation with the double top forming at the area of resistance when the buyers pushed the bulls candle above the area of resistance and couldn't hold then it pulled back down and closed within the body and below the resistance clearly showing the reversal sign to complete the double top and indicated with red arrows (you can move down to the 4hr Chart for a clearer view) and fib rejection of 0.00 going for a short/sell down to 61.80 FIB to find a support before moving back up.
2. Second confirmation, i never go against the trend and it bullish so i wait for a clear confirmation to buy/long.
RISK/REWARD RATIO @ 1:5
STOP LOSS @ 50 PIPS
TAKE PROFIT 3 @ 279 PIPS
I welcome all comments, feedback, ideas and sharing of knowledge.
Have a great trading week!
Disclaimer: (This is for educational purpose only. Thank You.)
GBPUSD TRADING IDEAThis is my analysis and trading plan on GBPUSD i'm looking to long/buy from the 61.80 FIB retracement where the buy is indicated with several confirmations.
1. First confirmation with the double top formed at the area of resistance indicated with the two red arrow and fib rejection of 0.00 going for a short/sell down to 61.80 FIB to find a support before pushing back up.
2. Second confirmation, i never go against the trend because the trend is bullish so i wait for a clear bullish confirmation to go long.
I welcome all comments, feedback, ideas and sharing of knowledge.
Have a great trading week!
P.S. (This is for educational purpose only. Thank You.)
GWO Double Bottom 200SMA GWO has recently passed the 200MA on the weekly chart signalling a strong reversal in the price trend from bearish to bullish. after price showed a double bottom reversal, the price rebounded to break the resistance and cross over the 200SMA indicating a strong bullish trend. Price showed a similar pattern of a double bottom reversal crossing the 200MA in late 2011/early 2012 leading to a strong rally seeing the price increase almost 50% after breaking the resistance. the price target is 45-47.50 (35%)
AUDUSD Sell IdeaW1 - Price is moving inside a bearish flag pattern, price reached an important resistance zone formed by the top of this pattern, 100% fibonacci expansion of the first wave we had and it is currently moving lower. Bearish hidden divergence
D1 - Price has broken below the most recent uptrend line.
H4 - We may now look for pullbacks and then sells with more bearish evidences.
Gold Sell IdeaD1 - Price is moving inside a falling wedge pattern.
H4 - There are two possible scenarios:
Scenario #1 - Price pushes higher, and enters the critical resistance zone that we have marked and also reaching the 100% Fibonacci expansion at 1485.22. This is where I will be looking for aggressive and conservative entries with bearish evidences.
Scenario #2 - We need the price to push lower and break the up trend line. After that we can start looking for sell entries with bearish evidences.
CMT BTC BULLISH HARMONIC BAT PATTERNCMT BTC BULLISH HARMONIC BAT PATTERN
Lets see what's going on on pattern
GBPAUD Analysis: Triangle breakoutHi traders,
The main trend for this pair is uptrend.
Rising trendline is very evident.
Price just broke a triangle pattern from the lower side.
There are high chances that due to the breakout, price may continue further downwards towards the trendline.
What are your views? Hit the like if you agree to show support.
EURAUD trading the rejection at the top of the rising wedgeEURAUD is following a rising wedge and the setup of the moving averages also show that there is an uptrend. So why am I planning a short position?
The rising wedge is still quite large and this gives the opportunity to try to find a rejection at the top of it, with a great risk to reward ratio.
Also, the moving averages are quite close to each other, so with a rejection at the top, the setup could change quite fast, so I wouldn't rely that much on that in this situation.
I structured the trade to trade the rejection at the top and also a breakout at the bottom, but I would start to take part of my profits if the price reached the bottom of the rising wedge.