Are #Stocks expensive? No measured against M2 money supplyThe 2000 Top was still the "real" peak of the US stock market
Built obviously on the expectation that the internet would change the world and teh global economy.
This highlights how the market foresees the future and how market participants are forward looking.
The #DownJones index is still 50% down form that peak
on this chart you can multiple chart patterns tat have played out previously
HVF's, double top, head & shoulder tops, and inv H&S bottoms
currently in a 22 year continuation inv head and shoulders which is still in progress
my stance is Top in April/May 24 .... downdraft into the election and a run up for 2/3 years into the Giga Uber TOP
Bullmarkets
Compound loves to play games!!Lets play a game... how many daily candles will close below this daily level?
Leave a comment below!
Calculate Your Risk/Reward so you don't lose more than 1% of your account per trade.
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This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.
Bitcoin halving: Why it’s important for BTC scarcityGood day, traders
The Bitcoin Halving has happened again.
~1st Halving (Nov 2012): BTC price was $12.0. It reached its highest price ever at $1163.
~2nd Halving (July 2016): BTC price was $638.51. Then, it skyrocketed to a new all-time high of $19333.
~3rd Halving (May 2020): BTC price was $8475. It later surged to a new record of $68982.
~4th Halving (April 2024): BTC price is now $63839. What will the new all-time high be?
What's different this time around?
1. A Bitcoin Spot ETF is in play.
2. Big institutions and investors are jumping in.
3. More people are aware of cryptocurrencies.
4. Governments are making new rules for cryptocurrencies.
5. Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are being accepted globally.
Let's get to the topic
Bitcoin's halving is a critical event that helps establish Bitcoin's value as a digital asset. It reduces the rate at which new Bitcoins are created, enhancing its scarcity and potentially positioning it as a reliable store of value for the digital era, more fluid than real estate or gold.
In the most recent halving, which occurred at the 840,000th block, the reward for mining a new block dropped from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. This reduction in mining rewards means that fewer new Bitcoins are entering circulation, making existing Bitcoins more scarce.
Karim Chaib, CEO of crypto platform Dopamine App, explains why this matters:
"Scarcity is a basic economic concept that impacts asset value. By design, Bitcoin becomes scarcer over time due to the halving events, which decrease its supply at a predictable rate."
Bitcoin's halving is built into its code and occurs approximately every four years, or every 210,000 blocks. The first halving was in 2012, when the reward went from 50 BTC to 25 BTC per block. Since then, the reward has halved again in 2016 and 2020, and now stands at 3.125 BTC per block.
This predictable scarcity sets Bitcoin apart from assets like gold, which can become less scarce over time as technology improves mining efficiency. Bitcoin, with its fixed supply limit of 21 million coins, is designed to be immune to inflationary pressures.
In summary, Bitcoin's halving events ensure its scarcity over time, boosting its potential as a valuable digital asset compared to traditional stores of value like gold.
This is just for informational purposes.
Thank you for reading.
Dynamics of Bull Market CyclesBull markets are the epitome of investor optimism and economic growth, characterized by rising asset prices and increasing investor confidence. However, within every bull market, there lies a cyclical pattern composed of distinct phases: Discovery, Momentum, and Blow-off. Understanding these phases is crucial for investors to navigate the market efficiently and capitalize on opportunities while mitigating risks.
🟣 Discovery Phase:
👉 Accumulation: During the accumulation phase, institutional investors and smart money recognize undervalued assets and begin quietly accumulating positions. This often occurs when the broader market sentiment is still pessimistic or uncertain, presenting attractive buying opportunities.
👉 Trend Emergence: As accumulation continues, subtle shifts in market dynamics become apparent. Prices begin to exhibit higher highs and higher lows, indicating the emergence of an uptrend. Technical indicators such as moving averages may start to show bullish crossovers, further confirming the trend.
🟣 Momentum Phase:
👉 Shake-out: The shake-out phase is characterized by short-term price declines or corrections that test investor resolve. Weak-handed investors, who bought near the end of the accumulation phase or are driven by fear, panic sell their positions. This phase often creates volatility and uncertainty but also offers opportunities for long-term investors to accumulate quality assets at discounted prices.
👉 Momentum Building: Following the shake-out, momentum begins to build as the broader market recognizes the strength of the uptrend. More investors start participating in the rally, driving prices higher. Positive news catalysts and strong earnings reports further fuel the momentum, attracting even more investors.
👉 First Sentiment: As the bull market gains momentum, investor sentiment shifts from cautious optimism to moderate confidence. Market participants start to believe in the sustainability of the uptrend, leading to increased buying activity. However, skepticism may still linger, especially among contrarian investors who remain wary of potential overvaluation.
🟣 Blow-off Phase:
👉 Renewed Optimism: In the blow-off phase, optimism reignites as investors regain confidence in the market's upward trajectory. Corrections or pullbacks are viewed as buying opportunities rather than signals of impending reversal. Institutional investors and retail traders alike re-enter the market, driving prices to new highs.
👉 FOMO (Fear of Missing Out): Fear of Missing Out becomes prevalent as investors fear being left behind in the rally. Social media, financial news outlets, and word-of-mouth recommendations amplify the sense of urgency to buy, further fueling price appreciation. This FOMO-driven buying frenzy can lead to exaggerated price moves and irrational exuberance.
👉 Euphoria: Euphoria marks the peak of the bull market cycle. Investors become irrationally exuberant, believing that the current uptrend will continue indefinitely. Risk management takes a backseat as greed overrides caution. Valuation metrics may reach extreme levels, signaling frothiness in the market.
Understanding the cyclical nature of bull market cycles is essential for investors to navigate the market successfully. By recognizing the distinct phases of Discovery, Momentum, and Blow-off, investors can make informed decisions, capitalize on opportunities, and protect their portfolios from potential downturns. While bull markets are synonymous with optimism and prosperity, prudent risk management and a keen awareness of market dynamics are critical for long-term investment success.
Major clues in USD indicate Bear market Late summer/ early fallHi guys. When trading its always important to learn/educate to find an edge on the markets.
There are so many charts you can access to analyze/compare, etc. Its known that many ticker symbols can be used in certain ways to help understand markets in a deeper way.
The DXY or U.S. Dollar Index is an asset that i use to assess Risk mentality.
So keeping it simple:
If dollar RISES -> it indicates a RISK OFF mentality -> so people leave risky investments to enter the safety that is cash
If dollar FALLS in price -> it indicates a RISK ON mentality -> this means peoplpe are leaving the safety of the dollar to take risk in other investments.
Im bringing you this analysis to assess the health of the broader markets and whether or not we are at risk of a down fall/ recession especially with tensions significantly rising in the Middle east.
So jumping right in.
I got 3 Red resistance trend lines drawn.
This trendline, in part reflects Bull runs in broader markets.
2 from past history
1 which is associated with our current Price action.
As you can see, this Resistance begins at the TOP price of DXY. Price is then supressed from a certain amount of time, before a breakout back ABOVE.
Everytime we have broken the resistance trendline. The dollar starts a massive Bull run when measured:
The 1st one lasted about 700 days
The 2nd one lasted about 460 days.
So the question i asked was how does this relate to the S&P and other markets.
Does the breakout above resistance from the start cause drops in all markets?
When i looked, i was surprised. Fall in other markets does NOT happen right off the breakout.
In fact, when i measured after the resistance breakouts it takes roughly 133-189 days before S&P begins a BEAR market.
As indicated by black lines.
1st example it took 133 days after breakout
2nd example took 189 days after breakout.
We have recently broken out ABOVE the red resistance trendline.
So if you consider previous history, our next Bear market i believe will begin sometime late Summer or early Fall.
Now remember previous history does not have to repeat. It just helps us find patterns and consider things.
It is however possible, if actual war does breakout. Things may change, as it would be considered a Black swan event.
However, until it happens this is the likely scenario in my OPINION. Our current movements i think is just a pullback before continuing higher.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. Hope it helped keep you informed. Please do support my ideas by boosting, following me and commenting. Thanks again.
Stay tuned for more updates on DXY in the near future.
If you have any questions, do reach out. Thank you again.
DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice, i am not a financial advisor. The thoughts expressed in the posts are my opinion and for educational purposes. Do not use my ideas for the basis of your trading strategy, make sure to work out your own strategy and when trading always spend majority of your time on risk management strategy.
The monthly on btcusd.The March Candle closes with approximately +16%, creating a price structure above the previous historical high drawn in 2021. A very strong signal regarding the long term, this favors the bulls in trying to snatch convenient prices until the short period will allow it by correcting on the most important supports. The last price structure that could act as support is in the 58k USD area, although between 63k and 61k USD there is another interesting area. What is striking is the fact that only in the January candle there was a correction, so looking at the fractal you notice similarities more with the bullish movement of 2016/17 than with the previous one 2020/21. Perhaps a new paradigm given that the main players in this market have changed.
Potential reversal in sight - x100 Potential MEME CoinAs a price action trader im still waiting for confirmation and/or liquidity sweep however overall
chart looks great with a tons of confluence for a POTENTIAL reversal 😉
We are still bullish on a daily. Yesterday printed a doji candle in high confluence area - daily and 4-hours order block responsible for the last breakout .
We are playing around 200 SMA on 4H and strong volume support area and we are definitely in discount area considering the last leg up.
I would like to see a change of character on 30 min - 1 H and /or a liquidity sweep before calling a trade entry cause we are still in a downtrend until proved otherwise.
ON fundamental side of things - the team is very active and doing everything to bring this coin to BONK market cap.
Keep an eye on this x100 gem is all i am saying 🤑🥸
Keep an eye on this level!It's time to keep a close watch on GALA, which is gearing up for a big move! If you're looking to trade GALA at the moment, here's a quick setup that you might find helpful!
The idea is: Buy when the price breaks above 0.05955$ and take profits at the levels shown in the chart.
Targets:
1. 0.062$
2. 0.0655$
3. 0.068$
-------------------------------------------
About our trades:
Our success rate is notably high, with 10 out of 11 posted trade setups achieving at least their first target upon a breakout price breach (The most on TW!). Our TradingView page serves as a testament to this claim, and we invite you to verify it!
XRP - 500x Your MoneyHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of XRP.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
In 2017 XRP created a massive triangle breakout which was followed by a +50.000% rally towards the upside. This rally then ended in 2018 and XRP has been trading sideways ever since. However there is once again a triangle formation and XRP is about to break out, which could then lead to a similar rally compared to the breakout rally we saw back in 2017.
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I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
XRP to 2 dollars or to the new ATHs ??Like so many out there, i have resentment over xrp, but then this beauty of a thing is showing bullish signs, off which i cannot just ignore. While other hate on xrp, others are about to get richer because of it. so who am I not to jump in on the band wagon as well.
Based on the chart:
Correction complete from 26 April 21 till 13 jun 22, then accumulation complete as well.
Bull market started 02 Jan 23 and is currently in progress.
At the current price, I'm adding more on my spot bag, as this is the entry price for those who are looking at trading this pair. Im gonna be taking longs from here as well, hope you have an awesome trading week ahead, ATB.
NFA as always.
Upper Trend Line Target = 90K per BitcoinBitcoin (BTC) has recently broken its all-time high (ATH) of $64,800, reaching a new high of $68,789. This has led many to believe that there is no more resistance ahead and that the price will continue to rise indefinitely. However, a closer look at the chart reveals that there is a significant resistance level at $90,000.
Using upper resistance trend lines:
Drawing an upper resistance trend line from the previous ATHs of $20,000 and $40,000 intersects with the recent ATH at $68,789. This confluence of trend lines suggests that this level is a strong resistance area.
Fibonacci retracement:
Applying Fibonacci retracement to the current bull run shows that the 61.8% retracement level is at $90,000. This level is often a significant area of resistance, as it represents a pullback from the previous impulse wave.
Psychological resistance:
The $90,000 level also coincides with a significant psychological resistance level. Round numbers often act as psychological barriers, as traders may be reluctant to buy or sell above or below these levels.
Bitcoin Long-Term Analysis: Bullish Breakout or Mid-Bull Market Bitcoin Long-Term Analysis:
The chart illustrates Bitcoin's (BTC) monthly price action within an ascending channel since 2017. The red vertical lines indicate instances when the monthly RSI entered the overbought zone, historically coinciding with mid-bull market phases.
At $75,000, BTC will encounter the channel's midline . A breakout and consolidation above this area could propel the price towards the channel's upper trendline, potentially reaching $300,000 depending on the timing of .
Currently, most indicators on lower timeframes show overbought conditions, suggesting a probable correction after BTC reaches the channel's midline. Further analysis on lower timeframes will provide more insights into potential corrective movements.
Please note: All analysis provided here is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. You are solely responsible for any investment decisions based on this information.
Idea of when LTC will moveIn the past, from bear market low to start of bull market breakout has taken LTC 102 weeks and 101 weeks for the last 2 cycles respectively. We can just say ~700 days from bear low it will take to get bull market breakout. As time of writing, we are currently at week 90 of 101 . Using these past time frames we can assume a breakout range for this bull market near end of May '24 . From that bull market breakout, it took LTC 37 weeks and 26 weeks to reach bull market high. Taking an average we can assume it will take ~31.5 weeks this cycle after bull market breakout to get to cycle highs. From this analysis im seeing late November '24 to late January '25 will be the range to start looking for cycle highs. Who knows what price we will be at, depends if you think we will break the double top previous highs that we have been consolidating in for the past 6 years or so, but that's beyond this analysis.
Ladycoin to the moon :)hello everybody. ladycoin is continuing to make moves towards the upside. When I first wrote about this coin it was at 000580. its now at 0010. Good levels to buy are at 000790-000820. Possible chance we can re test 000680 levels but I would not bank on it. Again, everything is dependent on the way BTC moves. However, with a marketcap of only 45M, you are getting a opportunity of a lifetime! Imagine if you got into PEPE when it was only a 100M mkt cap. PEPE is now at 1B mkt cap and growing. Besides the TA on this chart, note that you are buying a coin that is backed behind the image of a women. All it takes is one major female influencer to start shilling this coin. Time for you guys all to become female activists ;) lol jk. (not financial advice) but consider making this coin a part of your portfolio. Sometimes in these bull markets the coins with 0 utility make bigger moves then ones with utility.
Have a good day!
Bitcoin Halving: Before and After Price TrendsBitcoin Halving: Catalyst for Price Surges?
Historically, Bitcoin's price has shown a tendency to increase after a halving event, although the exact dynamics can be influenced by a myriad of factors beyond just the halving itself, such as market sentiment, global economic conditions, and technological advancements within the blockchain ecosystem. Here's a brief overview of the price behavior around the past halving events:
1. **First Halving (November 28, 2012):**
- **Before Halving:** The price was around $11.
- **After Halving:** The price increased over the following year, reaching over $1,000 in November 2013.
2. **Second Halving (July 9, 2016):**
- **Before Halving:** The price was around $650.
- **After Halving:** The price trended upwards, reaching nearly $20,000 by December 2017.
3. **Third Halving (May 11, 2020):**
- **Before Halving:** The price was around $8,600.
- **After Halving:** The price saw a significant increase, peaking at over $64,000 in April 2021.
It's important to note that while halving events tend to reduce the supply of new Bitcoins entering the market, leading to potential price increases, each halving event occurs in a unique market and global economic context. Therefore, while historical data can provide insights, it is not a guaranteed predictor of future price movements. Investors are always advised to conduct thorough research and consider multiple factors before making investment decisions.
TOTAL MARKET CAP: HISTORICAL CYCLES!People are talking a lot about altcoins in the cryptocurrency market. They think there might be a big season coming up where altcoins, which are alternative cryptocurrencies to Bitcoin, could be worth a total of $5 trillion by 2025. This idea comes from looking at past data and patterns in the market.
Historical
Let's look at some past data:
It took about 762 days for the total cryptocurrency market value to be higher than it ever was before.
If things happen like they did before, we might see a new high around December 2024.
The last time prices went really high lasted for about 1066 days, and this time it could be similar.
Fractal Analysis:
This is a fancy term, but it just means looking for similar patterns in the past:
Between 2014 and 2015, prices stayed pretty steady for about 610 days.
Then, from 2016 to 2017, the value of altcoins shot up to around $400 billion.
After that, from 2018 to 2019, there was another period of steady prices for about 609 days.
Now, from 2022 to 2023, we've seen about 548 days of steady prices, which might mean a big change is coming.
Future Projections:
Based on what we've seen before, here's what some people think could happen:
They're guessing that altcoins could be worth $5 trillion by 2025, which would be a huge jump.
They think this might happen around September or October 2025.
Conclusion:
Looking at all this information, it seems like altcoins could be in for a good run in the next few years. If they really do reach $5 trillion by 2025, there could be some big opportunities for investors. It's something worth keeping an eye on as things develop in the cryptocurrency world.
How to Become Rich in 2024 ? Best Altcoins to HODL !!!What is Altseason and Why is it Important?
Altseason is a period of time when altcoins (alternative cryptocurrencies to Bitcoin) outperform Bitcoin. This usually happens during bull markets, when investors are more willing to take on risk. Altseason can be a great time to make big profits, but it's important to do your research and only invest in coins that you believe in.
6 Altcoins to Watch for the Bull Run
1. DYDX
DYDX is a decentralized derivatives exchange that is built on the Ethereum network. It offers a variety of features that make it a popular choice for traders, including margin trading, perpetual contracts, and spot trading. DYDX has been on a tear in recent months, and it shows no signs of slowing down.
DYDX has been in a clear uptrend since the beginning of the year. It has broken out of several resistance levels and is now trading at all-time highs. The RSI indicator is also showing bullish momentum, with a reading of 70. This indicates that DYDX is overbought, but it could still continue to rise in the short term.
2. OP
OP is a layer-2 scaling solution for Ethereum that is designed to increase throughput and reduce fees. It is still under development, but it has the potential to revolutionize the way that Ethereum is used. OP is one of the most anticipated altcoins of 2023, and it could be a huge winner in the bull run.
OP is currently trading in a large megaphone pattern. This is a bullish pattern that indicates that OP is likely to continue to rise in the short term. The RSI indicator is also showing bullish momentum, with a reading of 65. This indicates that OP is overbought, but it could still continue to rise in the short term.
3. ARB
ARB is an Ethereum-based project that is developing a decentralized rollup solution. Rollups are a type of scaling solution that can significantly increase the throughput of Ethereum. ARB is one of the most promising rollup projects, and it could see significant growth in the coming months.
ARB has been in a long accumulation phase. It has been slowly building a base of support, and it is now ready to break out. The RSI indicator is also showing bullish momentum, with a reading of 55. This indicates that ARB is not overbought, and it has room to run.
4. SOL
SOL is a high-performance blockchain that is designed to support fast and scalable transactions. It has been one of the best-performing altcoins of 2023, and it shows no signs of slowing down. SOL is a good choice for investors who are looking for a fast and scalable blockchain.
SOL has recently broken out of an ascending triangle pattern. This is a bullish pattern that indicates that SOL is likely to continue to rise in the short term. The RSI indicator is also showing bullish momentum, with a reading of 60. This indicates that SOL is not overbought, and it has room to run.
5. DOT
DOT is the native token of the Polkadot network. Polkadot is a sharded blockchain that allows developers to create and connect their own custom blockchains. DOT is a good choice for investors who are looking for a blockchain that is interoperable and scalable.
DOT has been slowly recovering from its all-time high. It is now trading in a range, and it is likely to break out soon. The RSI indicator is also showing bullish momentum, with a reading of 50. This indicates that DOT is not overbought, and it has room to run.
6. AVAX
AVAX is the native token of the Avalanche network. Avalanche is a platform that allows developers to create and launch their own blockchain projects. AVAX is a good choice for investors who are looking for a blockchain that is fast, scalable, and secure.
AVAX has recently broken out of a descending triangle pattern. This is a bullish pattern that indicates that AVAX is likely to continue to rise in the short term. The RSI indicator is also showing bullish momentum, with a reading of 65. This indicates that AVAX is overbought, but it could still continue to rise in the short term.
Conclusion
These are just a few of the many altcoins that have the potential to explode in the coming bull run. It's important to do your own research and only invest in coins that you believe in. However, if you're looking for a place to start, these 6 altcoins are a good option.
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USDT.DTeather dominance is used as gauge to inverse the prices of CRYPTOCAP:BTC & #altcoins. When CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D drops it is bullish for the entire crypto space and when it pumps it is bearish.
Right now the downtrend is breaking below a channel that I have marked off since 2018. That means this channel has been in play 6 years. Right now the candles are breaking below the bottom TL in what I have labeled a 5 wave bearish declining sequence. The significance of this is move is important.
The bottom TL has been the top of all bull markets since 2018 and we are currently breaking below that level with no real support in sight until 4% then 2%. This means that the bears have officially lost. It's game over now. Bull market is here and it looks big since this channel has been bear market support since 2018.
BigMike loves you all let the party begin.