Simple Projection of Second Top (Hidden Bearish Trend) Simple Long-Term Prediction:
Since its highest price, BTC has been in a downtrend but It is hard to label it as a bear market. I am seeing it as a reaction that brought us to the significant support level which has been seen as the last pillar of hope with an enormous amount of fear.
If BTC can defeat the emotional level of 21.5k, It will give more buying opportunities to the bull runners. I believe that the real bearish market would be from the second top after the price reaches between the 30k-40k. I believe sellers lost a little bit of momentum. In addition to that, the U.S dollar index (20-year high of 114.78) is the major factor in driving the BTC price over the last few weeks which dropped below 111 points. As a result, It can boost market recovery for crypto and stock.
My previous BTC analysis was for the long-term strategy which pointed out the long duration of consolidation that means highly choppy trades.
To sum up;
I am still on the side of my second top scenario and not Fomo bungee jumping for 100k-300k price levels.
Thank you, guys!
Bullmarkets
Bitcoin Squared with Gan SquareInteresting chart, just having fun with squaring, shows potential support/resistance. Think of the center of the circle as a Sun and each ring as a gravitational orbit, once price action is pushed to the left side of the star, we could see an uptrend(just an idea). If price action losses an "Orbit" then "gravity" pushes it to another ring. Can anyone apply some Rocket science to this so we know when Btc will go to mars?
BTC SMASHED THE MAJOR BEAR WALL!!! Bull market now possible!I have been waiting for this day for 10 long months.. The bear wall has been broken.. and as a bonus, it's my birthday! The video goes over what I have been tracking and it goes over the break that could FINALLY CHANGE OUR MARKET CYCLE FROM BEAR TO BULL. Seriously exciting. Cheers
Tools to assess SPX for potential bear and bull marketsIndicators -
• CM_Ultimate RSI Multi Timeframe
• CM_Stochastic Multi Timeframe
• CM_Stochastic Highlight Bars
Ticker - QUANDL:MULTPL/SHILLER_PE_RATIO_MONTH – Now I cannot seem to find the ticker through the search of Trading view. However, I found this by clicking on a post made about this ticker, opening the full chart, and adding it to your watchlist. (If any knows this ticker, please post it in the comments) (If you want to add it to your watchlist I suggest clicking on the ticker link above this post and adding it through there)
Possible Ticker - QUANDL:MULTPL/SP500_PSR_QUARTER – This is a price to sales ratio of the SPX. This does not have as much history as the Shiller ticker on TradingView however may just be as useful in the future.
This is the Shiller Cape Ratio and first a little about it.
The Shiller P/E was created by Nobel Prize winner Robert J. Shiller. This ratio helps investors understand whether stocks are overvalued or undervalued while also correcting for short-term volatility. This analytical tool is most used to evaluate the overall U.S. stock market. It is also known as the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE) or the Shiller P/E 10, due to the 10-year data it uses.
As much as these indicators can be used directly on the SPX, I find It cancels out the noise and gives you a strategy and indicator that helps you feel more confident about your decision knowing it is backed by fundamentals.
A lot of people had compared the similarities between this crash and the 2008 and this current bear market. The similarities of the point of crossover of the stochastic in the exact position of the 2008 bear market. Not to mention, with the RSI still not having reached oversold territory this indicate that the market has a way to go.
Technical analysis can work great on these indicators as using support and resistance levels in the same way you would use them on any other security. Using them to look for potential bounce or resistance levels in bear a bull markets can work wonder.
Another ticker that these indicators work lovely on is the S5FI and the S5TH for look for oversold levels as well as divergence a momentum.
I will be completely honest, as I am only new to technical analysis. However, I find that similar to crypto using of chain analysis, that trading of fundamentals or underlying key figures give me loads more confidence in making more accurate decisions and better precisely timed decisions and a better understanding of what drives markets.
On Chain Analysis using glassnodeThis is a quick description for using the Bitcoins Active Addresses from glass node.
This chart is typically not something that makes much sense as it jumps back and forth with a-lot of volatility.
However, apply a 14 Day SMA and you can get idea of the average of all the noise.
I will explain briefly what the noise could mean.
The number of unique addresses that were active in the network either as a sender or receiver. Only addresses that were active in successful transactions are counted.
When bitcoin is performing well through its bullish market the average of the BTC_ACTIVEADDRESSES will perform well along with bitcoin. Being that BTC is all the hype and the number of unique BTC users and active addresses is increasing alongside with bitcoins price.
When bitcoin has reached or near reached its peak this number in the past has started to consolidate prior to BTC high. This may be a sign that "BTC Hype" may be reaching is heigh. Meanwhile a good spike up after a bear market could also potentially indicate the end of a bear market.
Plot this ticker on your graph for yourself and add a SMA 14, is what I used or something similar in nature. See if this could help you in the future in understanding the current strength of CRYPTO market.
Add a BTC chart to a split display to make it easier to compare.
PS - The spike before the lunar Collapse around the 16 of May was a sign that people were actively changing money around.
INDICATOR IDEA - Place a SMA and an Indicator on the SMA around Above 950K. That would be a nice indicator that more people are consistently coming into the network and it is becoming more active, and this also give us a New Higher-Low.
$UNH HERE WE GO 🚀🔸️Ticker Symbol: $UNH 🔸️Timeframe: 4H 🔸️4X Bull Pattern 🔸️Investment Strategy: Long
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: $UNH is currently breaking a strong resistance level in the market at $548.58. I do believe if we can continue in this 4X bull pattern we could potentially see $560 next week on $UNH. Let me know what your investment strategy is.
4X 🟢 Bull Pattern Confirmation Requirements
✅️ Linear Regression Indicator Increasing
✅️ Money Momentum Shifting Higher
✅️ Green Dot: Key EMA Crossover to Upside
✅️ Green Middle Band: Bull Market Momentum
4X 🔴 Bear Pattern Confirmation Requirements
🔻 Linear Regression Indicator Declining
🔻 Money Momentum Shifting Lower
🔻 Red Dot: Key EMA Crossover To Downside
🔻 Red Middle Band: Bear Market Momentum
🔔 Follow for daily stock, crypto and forex technical analysis.
⚠️ Trading is risky, and I understand nothing is guaranteed. Proper risk management should be in place at all times to minimize losses. Please consult a financial advisor before trading. Trendsi Trades LLC is not a financial advisor and may not be held liable for any losses which may occur.
SPY: MAKING A PUSH TO $430!🔸️Ticker Symbol: SPY 🔸️Timeframe: 1 Hour 🔸️4X Bull Pattern 🔸️Investment Stratey: Long
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: The spy is currently in a 4X bull pattern meaning our linear regression indicator is pointing in an upper direction, our money movement indicator on the bottom is shifting higher, we have a green dot representing a key EMA crossover and our middle band on the dashboard representing market momentum has switched over from red to green meaning bullish momentum. I do want to see if the spy can test $430 or close to it by the end of today August 18th and then a continuation next week. Let me know your thoughts.
4X 🟢 Bull Pattern Confirmation Requirements
✅️ Linear Regression Indicator Increasing
✅️ Money Momentum Shifting Higher
✅️ Green Dot: Key EMA Crossover to Upside
✅️ Green Middle Band: Bull Market Momentum
4X 🔴 Bear Pattern Confirmation Requirements
🔻 Linear Regression Indicator Declining
🔻 Money Momentum Shifting Lower
🔻 Red Dot: Key EMA Crossover To Downside
🔻 Red Middle Band: Bear Market Momentum
🔔 Follow for daily stock, crypto and forex technical analysis.
⚠️ Trading is risky and I understand nothing is guaranteed. Proper risk management should be in place at all times to minimize losses. Please consult a financial advisor before trading. All Inclusive Trading LLC is not a financial advisor and may not be held liable for any losses which may occur.
ARE WE REALLY OUT OF THE BEAR MARKET?traders around the trading forums are speculating that we are out of the the bear market,it wouldnt be wise to conclude that just yet,worse off to start celebrating..technical analysis of the us30 which is as good as the SNP500 when analyized clearly indicates that we still have quite the roof to overcome before we can safely declare the market bullish again,,
US Stocks: Improved Technical ActionThe futures of the major US indices fell modestly early Monday morning. The stock market rally passed an inflection point last week, making a decisive move higher.
Investors should be adding to their positions with careful buys, not rushing to ramp up exposure. Markets are showing solid and improving technical action, but also appear to be betting on an optimistic economic scenario.
Here is the link to our updated watchlist for the US tock market:
www.tradingview.com
Watch out for the sectors Solar, Energies, Health & Technologies and Consumer Services which all show improved relative group strength.
All Stocks on our watchlist are absolute top picks and fulfill Minervini's Trend-Template criteria and are selected using IBD's CAN SLIM criteria. Also, they all have low risk entry points.
Bitcoin: Bull market started.Hello to all members of TradingView .
I suggest to pay attention to the below points:
1. The price is at the bottom of the rising channel.
2. Price is rising above MA 200. Whenever the price has reached MA 200. It has changed direction upwards.
3. Whenever RSI reached about 30. Bitcoin was at its lowest price.
4. The price reacted to the 0.76 Fibonacci levels.
5. Elliott's third wave is completed.
In my opinion, Bitcoin is at the lowest price in recent months. Based on mentioned points. So, it is possible to start a bullish market.
If it is helpful to you, please like it. If you have a comment. I'll be happy to know.
Respectfully.
SPY either outlier or on perfect course You can see there is a strong difference between the real cyclical bear market and the current correction. Also the primary bull market last 25 years last time from 75' till the 00'. We are now at around half cycle (13 years in). Last cycle SPX did 20x since cycle low the cycle before was around 13x (if data reliable), now we have just done 6x really underperforming. The 52 weeks MA has been the support of the bull market cycle as you can see in the chart. Hence I doubt the current correction will last for much more.
BTC bullish scenario in Bear market !!!! RISKY LONG #BTCUSDT on daily tf thus forming falling wedge pattern and price is consolidating at the support trendline and 30k (critical Support) If bounce in 4h tf breaking the symmetrical triangle formation to the upside may send BTC to test the 200DEMA which is inline with the upper resistance trendline of the wedge. Losing the 30K level will be anticipated by huge shorts and downward momentum. Levels to watch on breaking down are 23k and 19k.
LONG AAPL - New Market - I believe the markets have bottomed.
AAPL is a great buy back at the demand zone fo 150$ area. Last year there was a yuge 50 million buy at 150 - nice retest of that institutional entry point.
Enter a small postion in the 10 Delta Weekly 3 DTE Calls @ .21 the 165 C for 5/13
NOT advise, my own oppinion. #sizekills
BTC/USD Wyckoff Accumulation Updated May 2022Let me start by saying this is not financial advice and this prediction is purely based Wyckoff Accumulation theory. Current Bearish sentiment and global financial state could change everything anytime so please DYOR before making investment decisions. Also please do not take the price point and timeline literally because this is a pattern prediction.
This prediction is based on assuming BTC has found some support at 30k or in this area which makes an ST in phase B. Based on this, BTC looks like forming the following Wykoff Auumulation patterns -
Schematics 1 - Green
Schematics 2 - Orange
According to Schematics 1 - Spring could be anywhere between 20k to 30k depending on market sentiment and assuming 30k is the ST in phase B.
WILL USDT.D REJECT ??Hello !!
Welcome to the quick update of USDT.D. It is currently, moving inside a channel and may soon get rejected from 4.80. It has been rejected multiple times from the trend line as shown in the chart. This will be the 5th time it is going to get rejected and if it happens we may see a green market. The altcoins may pump around 10 to 15 % if it gets rejected.
USDT.D and BTC go in the opposite direction. If USDT.D gets rejected, BTC will soon see a pump until the first resistance of 39300 then 40800 along with a rally in the altcoins as well.
On the other hand, I can see a Cup and Handle pattern and if USDT.D breaks this pattern and retests, then BTC will break 38200 mark and we may see 37000 levels and also 33000 if the worst happens. Let's wait for the right time to enter any trade and wait for confirmations rather than speculations.
This is not financial advice, please do your own research before investing and we are not responsible for any of your losses or profits.
Please like and share and comment on this idea if you liked it.
Finding BTC top with dxy and fed balance sheetSo we're at the pivot point where most of us are asking where do we sell? Is it top yet - so wanted to explore correlations between btc,dxy and fed balance sheet and how do they affect the bullmarket top - found few:
What's on the chart?
1. indicator bellow chart is us fed balance sheet - change, second indicator is total sum of balance sheet over time.
Correlations?
1. usually after halving dxy has a period when it pumps along with btc price for the first leg and then creates a zigzag pattern where it starts to go look for bottom (circled in green).
2. after the zigzag dxy starts dumping giving boost to btc price until it finds bottom:
3. when dxy bottoms btc stops moving higher marks end of cycle (circled in orange), smaller the balance sheet faster dxy recovers
4. afterwards btc starts consolidation period while dxy starts picking off - fed balance sheet enters phase when no larger increases are made to the sheet - balance sheet starts decreasing.
When will the bullmarket end?
This year due to covid we had everything happened at the same time:
we had large increase of balance sheet helping boost the btc price along with the zigzag pattern, after that event halving happened and dxy started looking for bottom.
There are currently 2 potential scenarios:
1. either dxy stays arround 89.80ish creating a new bottom and marking top for btc - market with white line - this needs to be supported by fed balance sheet that is either not increasing - or decreasing.
2. fed balance sheet keeps increasing having the dxy bottom at a later time - supporting continuation of the bullmarket cycle - market with purple line.
Toughts?
SPX500Decision time soon, are we in a 1,2 1,2 EW wave pattern that is bullish leading to 5,130-5,200 wave 3 target?
Or do we loose critical support now and start the bear market, nuke to 3,200.
I discuss in my analysis why I'm leaning towards option 1 where we hit W3 soon to 5130.
Whats your opinion? Comment below.. Thanks and BigMike loves you.
Top and bottom prices with dates for Bitcoin - based on pastThis is my analysis for long term Bitcoin prices. In my opinion Bitcoin is very highly manipulated and the price will be be driven down in 2022 only to be pumped again after the next halving event. At this point Bitcoin is a wealth generating scheme that rewards those who buy low and sell high or just hodl and takes from fools who buy the top during a media driven frenzy.
This model is based on time periods and % changes in price of last 2 "cycles" of highs and lows. Did you know that from the lowest price value after the 2013 BTC top, so in January 2015 till the highest price in December 2017 (19k) past 1064 days ? Guess how many days past from bottom of bear market in 2018 till top in 2021. 1064 days. Coincidence?