SPX local Top?With the MACD positive momentum waning, and the Stoch RSI crossing back under the Bullish control Zone i would look to the .236 fib retracement ( 4994) for the first target. The Bull Market Support Band will be closing in to the level in the future , may act as a magnet.
This idea is on a weekly time frame so it could take months to play out.
Bullmarketsupportband
Bullmarket Support Band flips BullishThe Bullmarket Support Band has historically acted as a support level for Bitcoin prices during bull markets.
It is a simple long TF indicator and price tends to retrace towards it. For example, during the 2017 bull run, Bitcoin had several 30-40% corrections to the support band.
WHY THIS MATTERS:
The band just "flipped bull" on the monthly timeframe after a long bear trend since February 2022.
On the weekly we had a perfect touch off the support band with a nice reaction to the upside.
Most importantly we had our first monthly close above the Support band since April 2022.
Last time this occured was October 2019 7 months prior to the May 2020 halvening and imo 1 year before the real bullmarket started in October 2020.
Now we are 8 months away from the predicted April 2024 Halvening.
After October 2019 the support band was pretty much respected with minor dips, other than the Black Swan of the Covid Crash.
History rhymes, you cannot trade solely of this indicator but it certainly tingles my BULL NUTS.
As for the Price I think the big boys wanna see more fomo longs and for that we will need to reach 33-35K and imo 40k is not out of the question.
Once that is achieved a Black Swan could be looming, who knows what. At this point we all know its a game, just make sure to know the rules and play along.
NOTE: The band is created by plotting the 20-week simple moving average (SMA) and the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) on a weekly chart.
Bullmarket Supportband | Weekly close below?- Uptrend got rejected on the FIB 0.382
- Price is below the Bullmarket-supportband on the weekly timeframe
- Price is below 2021 lower trendline
- Expected support in case of further downside FIB 0.236, next support could be the lower trendline created by the C-19 crash
+ Weekly close above the Bullmarket Supportband would invalidate my scenario. Fingers crossed!
This is an article, not financial advice, always do your own research!
Quick look at the bull market support band for BTCHere's a quick look at the weekly BTC chart with the bull market support band on.
The bull market support band (b.m.s. band) has in pervious years been a very good indicator in terms of indicating a shift in the market.
When the price gets below the band, the price tends to get into a bear phase. And when the price breaks above and holds above the band, the price tends to start a new bullish trend.
Currently the price has broken above the bull market support band. The price went up to 48k and came back down and retested the B.M.S. band. The price needs to stay above the band and break above 48.3k to gain more bullish momentum.
Last time the price went above the band, it came back down to retest it. After the retest, the price went from 39k to 69k!
If the price stays above the bull market support band and breaks the 48.3k level, we could then very likely see a move to New ATH! Almost every single time the price has stayed above the band, the price has made massive bullish moves! We may see one soon!
-------------------------------------------
If you like the content, then make sure to comment and like the post :D
Follow me for daily profitable trading setups
BTC dictates the market. If BTC falls, then Alts will fall as well. Trade safe!
Bitcoin Aiming for New ATHs...Bitcoin has been in a downtrend since November 2021... Has the Bull Run resumed?
My thoughts below:
Bitcoin has faced immense selling pressure since the tail end of 2021. This selling pressure seems to have been exhausted as bulls work to retake the Bull Market Support Band and flip it to support. If Bitcoin can turn the BMSB into support, it will serve as a launchpad for Bitcoin to soar to new ATHs. What was odd about 2021 was the fact that Bitcoin had all the right catalysts lined up to begin its ascent to $100K and beyond. However, the S2F and its timeline did not pan out and left many traders liquidated. When Bitcoin passed $60K, everyone thought $100K was readily in sight as Greed & Euphoria took over...
IMO, Bitcoin failed to rally to $100K because of the S2F and traders trying to front run price. Additionally, the US failed to approved a much needed BITCOIN SPOT ETF. They approved a futures product instead. This led to hedge funds shorting SPOT $BTC and buying futures to cover the spread and trade off the margins.
Recently, Bitcoin has rallied to $40K and has broken critical resistance at $46K. Now, the bulls are back in control as identified by the Bull Market Support Band being broken today. Much more, Bitcoin continued its rampage up to $48.4K intraday. The velocity and momentum of Bitcoin is back in the bulls favor. And the bears couldn't get the price below $30K to save their lives. Bitcoin is extremely undervalued and both LTH and STH holders know this. Not to mention, a confluence of On-Chain indicators have been signaling and are now flashing bullish. These indicators include: STH cost-basis and P/L ratio (7 Day SMA), OI and short liquidations, Dormancy Flow, NUPL, whale wallets and accumulation patterns, and more.
To summarize my chart...
In May 2021:
- Bitcoin broke below 20MA and 21SMA (Bull Market Support Band)
- Liquidation wick to $30K
- MACD crosses bearish
During Summer 2021:
- Choppy Sideways trend followed by accumulation
- Fear wick to $28K
- Bullish engulfing candle in July
- MACD cross signaling bullish resumption to upside
During Fall 2021:
- Bitcoin rallies to $50K+
- Bullish retest to BMSB
- Cascade wick lower to fake out
- BMSB acted as resistance and then, was flipped to support!
Winter 2021:
- Bitcoin soars off support to $69K
- S2F seems reasonable
- Greed & Euphoria
- Bitcoin crashes below BMSB and liquidation wick to $40K scares traders
- Then, BMSB acts as resistance, sending Bitcoin to $33K
- MACD crosses bearish, again...
Happy New Year (2022):
- Bitcoin starts of 2022 to upside until BMSB acts as resistance AGAIN
- Choppy, sideways trend bores traders for Q1 of 2022
- Bulls try to break resistance but fail... AGAIN
March 2022:
- Bitcoin shows confluence of Bullish indicators both on-chain and technically
- Bitcoin wicks to $33K right before the bulls send it past the BMSB (Third Time is a Charm?!)
TODAY:
- Bitcoin has gapped the BMSB past $46K to $48.4K intraday
- BMSB now has the chance to act as support, triggering a resumption of the Bull Run/Halving Cycle
- MACD has crossed BULLISH, AGAIN!
Bitcoin is going to $100K+ very, very soon.
Destiny Arrives All the Same.
- The Bitcoin Baron
Fib. channel fitted on linear scale and a 20W extension20W moving average (and a white shadow of a 21W EMA) has historically indicated a good near term cost basis. With a fitted fibonacci slanted channel (and more-or-less randomly extending the 20W average) we can plot a possible path for BTC, dancing between past fib level trend lines for resistance at important price levels, while also holding support at this imagined 20W SMA extension.
Of course, depending on the weekly close, this can breakdown form 20W SMA, in which case we continue our crab, I think.
Ethereum 3day shows a double bottom and breakout 🐱🏍The 3day chart shows a strong sign of recovery and can be taken as a future outlook of the weekly.
Bullish stuff:
We entered the bull market support band and did not get rejected so far.
The RSI shows a strong healthy rise.
Trading volume is higher compared to the start of 2022.
We formed a W shaped double bottom which is a strong reversal sign.
Bearish stuff:
We did not create higher highs yet and are in a consolidation phase during a down trend.
Technically we are still not above the bull market support band consisting of the 20 week SMA and 21 week EMA .
We believe that the people that hold through these hard times will get rewarded.
What is needed is patience and endurance .
We expect a bullish Q2 for 2022.
Feel free to comment or ask anything you like.
Always do your own research and keep in mind that my charts and comments cannot be considered financial advice.
Cheers
Ctumblery
200MA on the 3day held perfectly. Testing 45k again 🐱🏍The 3day chart shows a strong sign of recovery and can be taken as a future outlook of the weekly.
Bullish stuff:
The 200MA of the 3day was held perfectly. No close below it!
We now are within the bull market support band and did not get rejected so far.
The RSI shows a strong healthy rise.
Trading volume is higher compared to the start of 2022.
We are still above the macro support level of 30k.
Bearish stuff:
We did not create higher highs yet and are in a consolidation phase during a down trend.
Technically we are still not above the bull market support band consisting of the 20 week SMA and 21 week EMA.
We believe that the people that hold through these hard times will get rewarded.
What is needed is patience and endurance .
Bitcoin got additional attention during the Russian invasion in Ukraine.
People could use Bitcoin but have trouble withdrawing their fiat currency.
Donations are also made using cryptos which leads to additional attention.
Ukraine legalized cryptos because of that.
The FED started with rate hikes and takes a closer look to cryptos.
This is a novum and it seems that Bitcoin became to big to ban or ignore.
We expect bullish times ahead can't wait for it.
Feel free to comment or ask anything you like.
Always do your own research and keep in mind that my charts and comments cannot be considered financial advice.
Cheers
Ctumblery
The FUD keeps subsiding and recovery signs are emerging 👀Bitcoin is the dominant crypto currency and the whole market is somewhat depending on the health of the Bitcoin price chart.
Bitcoin dropped by 50% from its previous ATH around 68k within 3 months.
Since then we are consolidating into a wedge pattern with a ceiling around 45k and a rising floor currently around 39k.
Bearish stuff:
We are below the weekly bull market support band which currently ranges from 43k-47k.
Currently we are not able to break the 45k level and a further decline could send us back to lower lows.
We did not create higher highs yet and are in a consolidation phase during a down trend.
We are below the 100MA and 200MA.
Bullish stuff:
Since February we are consolidating with a rising floor.
We broke the downtrend for price and on the RSI.
Trading volume is increasing since the start of 2022.
We are still above the macro support level of 30k.
Price is above the 50MA.
We believe that the people that hold through these hard times will get rewarded.
What is needed is patience and endurance.
Bitcoin got additional attention during the Russian invasion in Ukraine.
People could use Bitcoin but have trouble withdrawing their fiat currency.
Donations are also made using cryptos which leads to additional attention.
Ukraine legalized cryptos because of that.
The FED started with rate hikes and takes a closer look to cryptos.
This is a novum and it seems that Bitcoin became to big to ban or ignore.
We expect bullish times ahead can't wait for it.
Feel free to comment or ask anything you like.
Always do your own research and keep in mind that my charts and comments cannot be considered financial advice.
Cheers
Ctumblery
ETH 3 day chart still intact for a rise?ETH 3 day chart... it continues to
chart Hidden Bullish Divergence, which means
the Price has a higher low and the RSI has a
lower low...this is from a macro standpoint
which makes it better to decipher what the overall
health of ETH looks like...Now, the prices listed
are supports (lower) and price targets (upper)...
another note, the DeMark 9 Indicator shows a
(7,8 & checkmark) meaning that 80% probability
we may of hit the bottom of this correction.
i do believe we will continue to consolidate for the
next 1-4 weeks in my opinion, before ETH
makes the overall decision which direction it wants to take.
Zoom into the chart for more details about the price thats the most crucial to turn this chart into a big bull once more.
Polygon MATIC falling into a nice entry zonePolygon is in an accumulation phase since the downfall in may 2021.
Last time we stated that this coin is a nice buy in the 2$ region.
That's where we are now and it still looks like a nice pickup zone.
The RSI dropped a little bit below the triangle and we expect it to bounce back into it within the next weeks.
The bullmarket supportband is around 1.8$ and usually acts as support within a bullmarket.
Currently around 7 billion MATIC tokens out of 10 billion possible are in circulation.
This is ok from an inflation standpoint.
Feel free to comment or ask anything you like.
Always do your own research and keep in mind that my charts and comments cannot be considered financial advice.
Cheers Ctumbler
BTC: rejection of the bull market support bandBitcoin got rejected out of the bull market support band together with a drop out of a bear flag. The crypto market does not look healthy at the moment and there's no way we can sugarcoat it. Technical target for BTC in the coming week is 42K, lets see if that plays out or we can rewind some bullish momentum. Are we going into a bear market? I just uploaded a YouTube video where I answer that question; with a full analysis of the market and all aspects you should know to become a successful crypto investor, link in bio.
IMPORTANT: this is not financial advice, trade or invest based on your own risk and research.
Bitcoin flash crash! Time to panic? Not yet!General Intro:
- Bitcoin is the first of its kind as cryptocurrency using blockchain technology and is looked at a store of value like gold , just better.
- Bitcoin will help the people to bank themselves and gives some power back to the community.
- The whole crypto market follows in some way the movements of the Bitcoin price while being much more volatile.
Comments:
- Today we look at the weekly timeframe to reevaluate the current situation for Bitcoin and therefore for the whole market.
- We do see that once the bull market support band (green line is the 20 weeks simple moving average and red line is the 21 weeks exponential moving average) we dropped further down and even passed the 50MA.
- However, we did find support around 40k$ and recovered back to 47k$ where we now wiggled around for most of the day.
Why we should not panic yet:
- Technically we still could go up above 52k$ for the weekly close and the bull market support band would have held.
- We are currently above the 50MA. Once we cross the 50MA we have to reconsider things again and possibly turn bearish.
- The last >200 days basically represent a large consolidation phase where we move between the two thick green and orange price lines (between 30k and 63k).
- Fundamentals did not change and the reserves on the exchanges continue to drop.
Daily chart:
- Price shows a flash crash down to around 40k$ depending on the exchange you are looking.
- Volume is on a steady decline since Mai. This supports the idea that we are in a large consolidation and accumulation phase.
- RSI analysis shows that we are in some sort of consolidation between the yellow lines.
- Moving Average: Currently we are below the 20MA and above the 50MA which can be considered a due or die situation.
- Fibonacci levels show that we are currently hovering above the 0.5 which technically is still bullish.
- Support lines are at 41k$ and 30k$.
- Resistance lines are around 63k$. Afterwards we are free to fly.
Expectation:
- We currently expect the price to go up towards the 53k$ line within this week to technically hold the bull market support band.
- If we can't hold the bull market support band it seems likely that we retest the 50MA again in the near future.
Basic rules:
- Never buy the top/ ATH
- Take profit as long as you can (also partial profit is profit)
- Use Stop/loss for leveraged positions
- If you are not experienced, don't leverage in the first place
Enjoy the ride and don't be too greedy.
If you like the content, please like, comment and give this channel a follow.
We would love it if you could share your thoughts in the comments.
Discussions are very welcome here.
Always do your own research and keep in mind that my charts and comments cannot be considered financial advice.
Cheers
ps.
Chart explanation:
Main lines:
- Green lines are tested support lines.
- Orange lines are resistance lines or, if we are above, possible support lines which were not tested yet.
- Cyan line is for volume trendline.
- White lines are Fibonacci retracement levels
Helplines:
- Purple lines are trendlines we take a look at.
- Blue, green, white and pink lines are 200MA, 100MA, 50MA and 20MA.
- The bull market support band showing a green line representing the 20 weeks simple moving average and a red line representing the 21 weeks exponential moving average
- Yellow lines are for visual help only.
Specials:
- Boxes represent either entry zone or support zone . Check the description.
- Cameras represent MA crossings. Yellow camera stands for a golden cross while the cyan camera stands for a death cross.
Bitcoins Needs To Close AboveBitcoins weekly candle will be coming to a close in less than 24 hours. There does seem to be a decrease in volume in the last couple weeks. Also there is a clear divergence with MACD and Price. If Bitcoin does not hold this support level I will be looking to take some profits. Keep a close eye on that level.
What is going on with Bitcoin? Likely a small dip before risingAfter a stellar 60% rise from 29k to over 48k, Bitcoin has been in a continuation pattern since August 9 - floating between 45k and 48k. It is possible we get our first red weekly candle after a month of green. This isn't necessarily a bad thing. We have seen many cases where Bitcoin and other cryptos need to breath before dramatic rises and setting new all time highs. This is no exception. Ethereum has been doing the exact same. We are also entering a time in the market (August / September) where Bitcoin typically tests the bull market support bands and continues on from there. It did it last year before Bitcoin went parabolic - doing a 6X before topping out at 64k and then entering a temporary bear market as we were ahead of schedule. It has done it nearly every year for the past 5 years and when approaching from above, it holds it as support. The one year when it came from below was 2019 and it ultimately failed.
Now we are behind schedule (if we were to have kept pace with the prior cycle, Bitcoin should be approaching 90k) and that plays in line with lengthening cycle theory - that each bull cycle will be longer and more drawn out than the prior one. This isn't a time to panic sell but rather wait it it out and DCA dips as I believe the second leg of Bitcoin's bull market has just begun. 100k is likely, 200k is possible within the next year or so. 300k is a remote possibility but that would be the same returns as last cycle and I doubt that.
Right now I am neutral on Bitcoin, but only in the short term. I believe the fall and winter will be extremely rewarding. I find holding (or hodling) to be the best strategy in a bull run and selling / taking profits to buy lower when corrections are imminent. I don't see a greater fall than about 10% which to me isn't worth it. That's honestly just a bad day in crypto. In the meantime, altseason is upon us. That means Bitcoin is the coin to buy as it re-establishes dominance.
Happy trading!
Ethereum Closely Holding Resistance at Bull Market Support Band Ethereum is interacting well with the Bull Market Support Band indicator where it bounced from the 21W EMA on May 23rd, fell below the support band in mid-June and is now holding resistance at the 20W SMA level for over a week. Once ETH/USD breaks through the support band and holds it as support, we may see bullish action again.
BTC Double Triple Corrective Pattern?BTCUSD appears to be forming a double three (WXY) pattern, which is characterized by a 7 swing structure. Wave subdivision is 3,3,3 which means all of these 3 waves are corrective sequences.
If this correction plays out, BTC could find support in the mid-40k range at its bull market support band.