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Bullorbear

Another bearish sign? Or bulls are taking a quick pause?This is the third bearish sign I find as we are developing this current BTC move. Here we have double Doji which looks like bears are stepping in. Volume is decreasing which tells me if I`m right and bears really step in we gonna tumble down. In the previous posts, I showed you the bearish divergence and flag. This is just a continuation of my previous ideas and by no means I claim I`m right. It’s all just an idea and that’s why we are here to express them and learn from each other. Please share your thoughts on this current development.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by ECONOPEDIA
Bitcoin and the Stock MarketDisclaimer: This is written for entertainment purposes only. I am not licensed or certified to give financial advice, an no publication may be interpreted as such. I am not responsible for any financial loss or damages. You are responsible for doing your own research and forming your own ideas and theories. Thanks for reading! Bitcoin has been all over the place lately, it is important to understand why and what has been driving its price movement to decide if you are bullish or bearish in the short term. There is a lot of speculation lately regarding whether the bottom is in and the next bull cycle has already started, or if the downtrend will continue. BTC tends move with, and sometimes even lead, the NASDAQ. The correlation certainly isn't perfect, and it wouldn't make sense if it were perfect given the different trading ecosystems of the former and latter. Bitcoin has the opportunity for its price action to react to market news immediately 24/7, whereas the NASDAQ is only active a portion of each day. That being said, according to Bloomberg, Bitcoin's 40-Day correlation coefficients with the NASDAQ are at all time highs: 0.66. One cannot help but wonder if it is a coincidence that the stocks in the NASDAQ trade for about .58 of a full day compared to BTC. The chart below helps us visualize the markets over the last 6 months. The DOW, S&P, abd NASDAQ have all been in a short term downtrend, and currently stand around close to zero net change over the last 6 months approximately. Interestingly, Bitcoin and the NASDAQ topped in November of 2021, followed by the S&P's and DOW's tops in January. There are two major questions we need to ask ourselves regarding Bitcoin in my opinion: 1) If the stock markets continue to decline, will Bitcoin decline also? 2) What could catalyze these markets to turn around all together right now? 1) This does seem likely. Given the recent high correlation between BTC and stocks, and if we assume a catalyst is required to change this, we can speculate on what might trigger this kind of change. We need to form our own opinions on this. In my opinion, there are two potential catalysts that could realistically make this happen in the short term: -Bitcoin SPOT ETF Approval by the SEC -Positive SEC regulation/guidance regarding crypto 2) To answer this question, we need some context first: The FED, led by Jerome Powell, was previously on team transitory for months, and it seemed somewhat logical. There was a major (deprecating) catalyst prompting an enormous pivot from retail to online shopping (COVID-19.) This sudden market pivot spiked the rate of inflation, and as time goes on, prices would theoretically revert to a normal rate of inflation if team transitory were winning. The FED expected inflation to spike by late 2021 in this model, which has not happened, and this is why they no longer use the term transitory. It is speculated by some that this model was correct and dirsupted by the Delta variant. The FED has been punctual recently regarding its plan on fighting inflation. Jerome Powel has said time and time again that the FED does not want to disrupt the jobs market, which has seen increasingly strengthening reports. A bad disruption could lead to a wage-price spiral, hyperinflation, and then ultimately the destruction of the US dollar, if not handled correctly (this would be a worst case scenario and the FED's strongest priority is preventing this.) The FED has been tapering off quantitative easing (injecting massive amounts of newly created money into the economy via the purchase of mortgage-backed securities,) and the taper is almost complete. The time to transition to quantitative tightening is rapidly approaching, and it is widely speculated that the first interest rate increases will result from the upcoming FED meetings. The overall lack of certainty and confidence that the FED has inflation under control is the primary driver of market FUD currently. Fear of a recession is extremely powerful, and if the FED does not respond appropriately, the consequences may be severe. If you believe the FED will raise rates, then you must speculate on whether or not the stock market has already priced this in. It is in the general view of the FED that valuations are very high, which implies that the markets are generally overbought (in their opinion.) The FED uses monthly Consumer Price Index reports, amongst other tools, to track inflation. CPI reports are still indicating increasing rates of inflation. To answer the question, the markets would want see the FED keep rates at zero for the market to bottom. More specifically, we would need inflation to decline without intervention. Ultimately, you need to make up your own mind and do your own research. I write these summaries to provide context on what is going on, it is your responsibility to decide what you think will happen and trade/invest accordingly with your risk tolerance. Technical Analysis Bitcoin is trading at interesting price levels currently. The 500 Day moving average (orange) is just above $41,250. Bitcoin has not traded below this level since March of 2020, and this level may indicate an extended bear market for Crypto if support does not hold. The 12 day moving average(light blue) has also converged to a similar price level, leaving us in a very pivotal time. The descending channel is drawn out in red, and we will discuss what a bull and bear market may look like. The Bull Case Bitcoin needs to find support. If we find support at the 12day/500day moving averages, then we may expect a retest of the upper bound of the descending channel drawn in red. A clean upwards break of this channel is bullish, and then Bitcoin would need to set a new local high over 45,850 to establish an uptrend. The Bear Case Bitcoin does not find lasting support at the 500 day moving average, and tests the yellow trendline. If the yellow trend does not hold up, then we may see a test of the lower bound of the current downtrend around $27,000 Final Remarks It will be wise to closely monitor the actions of the FED over the several weeks and months. They have the power to move markets, their number one concern is inflation, and monthly inflation reports are coming in high. Interest rate hikes are the primary combat to inflation for the FED, and if you think that is what they will do, you need to determine how you think the market will react. We have some decent trendlines to use for guidance, and time will soon tell where the trend will go. Thanks for reading, good luck!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by CryptoRichCrypto
BTC Update - what's going on? Confluence appears...The latest "bull" move seems to have topped out at a nice confluence. Hindsight is 2020.... too. 2022... Confluence: - 1.618 extension off the low. - 382 retracement of the bear move from 69k to 32k - 12 Week EMA - What about the 200 day MA? I'm starting to feel bull, but we'll need to see this retrace with a proper bounce. Lots of indicators suggest an uptrend regardless if it is bull or a dead cat bounce. If we're lucky we'll retrace the bear move to 786 and get some nice bear entries after enjoying a nice bull rally. My count remains topped out at 69k, while some suggest 100k. I'm willing to compromise at 75k based on some previous analysis but not 100k... let's see! :)
by Shadowfigure
Bitcoin descending wedge scenarios(BullorBear)Hello! 😀🐲 Thank you for considering this short technical approach analysis today. 🐮We see a possible double-bottom on 4/6 hour view..👌 🐻Let's not overlook the death cross(s) present on this TF and circled above(which could make for a sharp rejection at current level.) With the events mentioned above, this puts us at the bottom of our wedge and makes way for some bullish movement if there's enough buy pressure. Opposite of bullish, we will exit wedge to our target 52,800. If BTC goes on a run here and tries to break the wedge structure, I have some key resistances and targets seen above. 📈 I am not expecting to go lower than ~52,800 in the event that BTC fails to reach bullish targets.🆒 Let's wait and see how this develops. Let me know what you think about Bitcoins price action ⏬⏬ 🛑This is not financial advice🛑 Above are approximate targets based on fibs and major trend-lines etc. I always recommend looking at multiple charts when making a big investment, thank you! Always have a stop loss ✋🛑💲 set Any thoughts 💭💡, questions 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️❓, good 👍, bad👎, happy 😄 or sad 😥, in the comments always welcome. Thank you so much!! Jazerbay 👀
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by jazerbay
16
BTC ... here you can choose your path ... for me the black one!Hello team, been a while. Although I haven't posted in some time, I have been actively looking at charts. OK, we are at an interesting juncture ... so I thought I'd post my grand chart to get your opinions. Which color line are you counting on ... green, red or black? It feels like we are on green, especially after that green candle today, you have to think that bull euphoria is setting in. But unless we crack 11500 to 11800, I'm afraid there will be profit taking, and then the question is how much profit taking (ie the black line or the red line). The red line assumes we are still in a big ABC correction that is still in play. Basically 20k to 3k was wave A, 3k to 13.7 was B, and now we are creating C ... down to around 2k (maybe even lower, some calling for 1k). Personally, it's hard to believe that ... but we all know how whales can surprise us in this market. And some traders that I respect are convinced it will happen. So I will not discard this possibility. I think the black line is the most realistic. It basically says since we hit 20k, we are forming a big ABCDE triangle wave ... this ends in early May, precisely when BTC is expected to half ... and you know what that means. So it makes sense that people that don't believe will be anxious to profit take at the first real sign of resistance (11500), but at the same time, I think there is enough people that believe BTC will print a new ATH after the halving ... so they won't give up BTC that easy ... so we sideways (which is a triangle wave ... the market can't decide really), until we get to the halving, and then we take off. I'd love to hear what you guys and girls think. Remember, only a fool sees one possibility. Do not use for investment, trading, financial decisions. For educational purposes only.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MAGICMARK
14