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Bullputspread

SPX Bull Put Spread 3350/3200 Oct 30th expiryHi folks, I would love your input on my analysis and rate my trade. - Last week, I entered into a Bull Put Spread 3350/3200 Nov 20th expiry. I KNEW we're heading into bearish territory, but I listened to my heart instead of my head. Nevertheless, here is my reasoning - 3350 is below the 50MA, which has served as very good support in the past. - By the time Nov 20th comes around, the 100MA would also be at the 3350 area. - 3350 is also at the 0.382 fib retracement level At this point, I have 2 options. I can either - leave as is - roll the short leg down to 3300 - at the same time, I can sell a put call spread at the 10 delta and turn this trade into an iron condor My thoughts are that the name of the credit spread game is risk management. Max loss on credit spreads can wipe me out, so I need to manage this risk at this point. Rolling the short leg would wipe up 70-80% of the credits I initially took in, so it's definitely not cheap. However, I would rather take a small win than maintaining a high risk level. What do you think?
SP:SPX
by BW11
Options Idea: Sell The Sep 18 2020 WFC 22.5-20 Put Spread @ 0.34WFC is in a long-term downtrend, but wants to reverse course. There is a resistance around the $24 area that has held except in mid May when WFC made its 52-week low at $22 and then bounced quickly back the next day to close at $24. I'm going to sell a Bullish Put Spread at the 22.50-20.00 strikes. Since we are in a downtrend I'm going to play it safe and I'm not going to sell naked just in case WFC wants to make a new 52-week low during the next two months. This is a negative probability trade (expected loss > expected win), so it may not be for everyone. 20-WFC-01 Opening Date: July 29, 2020 Expiration Date: September 18, 2020 DTE: 51 IV: 44.94% IV Percentile: 59% Odds of Winning: 73.74% Odds of Max Loss: 12.38% Win: > 22.16 @ Expiration Loss: < 22.16 @ Expiration Reg-T Margin: $250 Chart Legend Green Area: 100% Win Zone. If we finish above or in the green area, we keep 100% of our initial credit. The size of the green area is the size of credit (our maximum win). Yellow Area: Danger Zone: We still win, but we have to give back some of the initial credit taken in. Red Area: If we finish in this area we have a loss. The size of the red area is the size of our maximum loss. 1 standard deviation, 2 standard deviation, 3 standard deviation projections from Opening Date to Expiration Date are included.
NYSE:WFCLong
by OptionsCoach
found GNRC Oct - Seasonal Strength a 15.0% average Price Change During are Hurricane focused options report we look at GNRC seasonal strength to Determine Best and Worst seasonal strength months and average Price Changes for each month over the past 7 years. See how we found GNRC Oct - Seasonal Strength a 15.0% average Price Change with a 7 out of 8 (87.5%) Positive Occurrences. Also looked at a Bull Call and Put spreads in LOW and HD and found plenty of spreads to choose from if your BULLISH. see Morning Report www.youtube.com
NYSE:GNRCLong
by MarketChameleoncom
Pair Trade - Short CNQ and Long XLEThis is a pair trade idea based on CNQ/XLE pair cointegration. My calculations show that these two stocks diverged by more than 2 standard deviation and, based on mean reversion, should come back to mean. This pair's rolling mean is 28.3 over the last 280 trading sessions. The current value is 23.6 and one standard deviation is 1.8. The trad can be done by shorting CNQ and going long XLE in the proportion calculated through beta. Alternatively, it can be entered as two credit spreads - bear call spread on CNQ and bull put spread on XLE. This is how I will be entering this trade on Monday when the market opens - $CNQ $22/$24 Feb 21 bear call spread for $0.5 cr and $XLE $57/$55 Feb 21 bear put spread for $0.6 cr. Will be watching the bear call side and adjust if necessary.
NYSE:CNQ
by Options.Alpha
CNQ Bear Call Spread and XOP Bull Put SpreadI am not sure if this is the right forum for this but anyway... Pairs trading is a statistical arbitrage strategy designed to exploit short-term deviations from a long-run equilibrium pricing relationship between two stocks. This is a well known strategy used by hedge funds and institutional investors. I have previously used pairs trading by trading two correlated stocks. Normally a trader would go long on an underperforming stock and, at the same time, go short on an outperforming stock. If properly constructed this approach eliminates net equity market exposure and the performance is then only depends on the relative performance of the two stocks. As you can see from the above chart CNQ and XOP are correlated and move in a very similar fashion. It is not surprising as they both have very similar drivers - the price of oil and gas. CNQ has recently been outperforming XOP so to construct a pair trade a trader would short CNQ and go long XOP. For this trade I utilised stock options by selling two January 2016 credit spreads at the same time - CNQ $22/$23 Bear Call Spread for $0.26 and XOP $27/$28 Bull Put Spread for $0.32. The total credit received from these two spreads - $0.58. The maximum risk for the trade is $1.42 per spread and the maximum return is $0.58 per spread (excl. commissions). If the spread between these tow stocks returns to mean, I should be able to profit from the trade. Let's see how this trade performs over the next 4 weeks when the Jan options expire.
AMEX:XOPShort
by Options.Alpha
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