Bullrun
Bitcoin BTC Updated Bull Run Path I have updated the Bitcoin path by looking at the time frames it took to break through each of the Fibs from the last two bull Runs. I found a command time frame between the two that I have applied to this Bull Run. We are looking at hitting the $193K+ price point now around Nov. 1, 2024. Also looking for an ALT season around Dec 2024. Let's see how things will play out.
Could we get better position to enter?This is my idea of how DOGE will go in near future. I think DOGE is still consolidating like BTC, looks like we might see little pullback to 0.12-0.13 area. That means completing 5 waves of Elliot wave theory. 0.13 might sound awful for those who invested in, but if DOGE ever hit 0.12 area again that means checking that area 3rd time and its gonna be huge confirmation to go up, maybe even higher high. Unless DOGE could close candle above 0.18 in 1D and 1W timeframe it is most likely to go down before the big impulse.
03/06/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $70,741.40
Last weeks low: $68.714.79
Midpoint: $66,688.18
As we enter the Midway point in the calendar year BTC finds itself continuing to battle its '21 ATH. For many weeks now we've seen this key S/R level flipping from support to resistance and vice versa, will we finally see a breakout move above this week?
Although for the last few weeks the general attention has been focused on the ETH ETF, now that that is over and had a bullish turnout the market is looking for BTC to lead the way. Price is now above the 4H 200EMA, Post-halving supply shock effecting tokenomics positively in terms of supply and demand and currently breaking down the previous cycles high. Given all that in mind I think the patient will be rewarded as I think when BTC does get a clear run, most likely when Greyscale stop selling at a rate that causes outflows to overcome inflows. Top buyers sell pressure is relieved as holders who were underwater all bear market sell their positions and give way to buyers with high conviction. Then we will see BTC target $80K, only a matter of time.
This week I am focusing on BTC strength and signs of a breakout, I would say that once BTC breaks out, ETH will break above $4K and target ATH @ $4.8K. Things to look out for is any US news that could effect the markets; law making, Veto's etc.
Hopefully you had a good first half of 2024 and good luck for the second half!!
Ethereum Classic ETC 300$ on bullrun cycleOn my chart you can see accumulation phase from 12$ to 50$ , price can't broke the support level 12$ since January 2022. Also there are one more accumulation inside with range 12$ to 26$ which continues from December 2022 - 1 year of accumulation phase. On lower timeframe you can see how price works with lower liquidity and also leave compression of liqiudities which will be the fuel for bullish movement, the same view was on previous bullrun. If you enter right now and wait a time , you can easily hold ETC before ATH happen, it will be 10x from enter. The same situation with ETC/BTC and ETC/ETH , price works well with lower liquidity . Also miners can't mining ETH and a lot of people decided mining Ethereum Classic , also I believe ETH can help his brother ETC to pump coin . MAX marketcap of ETC was 14b, and that time when Litecoin had 22b, Chainlink - 20b.
Polkadot to 31.Polkadot made a higher high in March, since then Dot went down by 41% and still consolidating. 41% may sound awful but it is a great opportunity to invest or do futures trading. 5.5-6 would be a very comfortable area to consider investing or trade. As you can see Fibonacci 0.5 and 0.618 are perfectly lined with crucial zones. I will be taking profits at those green lines. For Spot trading I suggest HODL a little longer till Dot makes a higher high. Hope you can understand and sorry about my English.
Bitcoin to 91kBitcoin is holding little down trend resistance, but it is a matter of time to break it. It is possible to see little correction to 64.5k - 65k area. Closing candle above 74k is gonna be huge sign to go up. In the end we are going to see 91k or even higher. This could be final push and after that Bitcoin could ease down a little give some chance to altcoins to go to up, to do that BTC.D ( Bitcoin Dominance ) must go down!
EVERY Possible Scenario for ETH in 2024As we can all observe, ETH is doing pretty bad against BTC. And I mean neck-deep-up-sh*t-creek-with-its-mouth-wide-open kinda bad LOL.
People are starting to worry and get flashbacks of the December 2020 dip of ETH against BTC.
The current situation is the price retesting a historic golden FIBONACCI level (61.8%) that's about 3 years old. This level is crucial because it's formed by the last cycle's bull-run surge.
Let's explore the possible and impossible, or rather unlikely, scenarios.
FIRST SCENARIO: Ethereum ETFs get approved.
This obviously is what we all wish for, not only ETH investors and fans, but everyone who cares about the Alt-coins market. I expect a huge surge from our golden FIBO level if this scenario occurs.
SECOND SCENARIO: Ethereum ETFs get disapproved.
In this case, it would be reasonable for the price to decline and retest the bottom of an even more historic symmetrical triangle structure that's as old as ETH.
The price should bounce from there as Ethereum recovers from the bad news and retry surpassing the golden FIBO level.
THIRD SCENARIO: Ethereum is doomed.
This is a very unlikely scenario , but let's humor it anyway. What if ETH fails to retest the bottom of the symmetrical triangle structure that's been containing its price action since millennia?
Well, I don't expect this to happen unless ETH fails to recover from the bad news and turns out to be a huge SCAM coin. The biggest scam coin in the history of crypto.
Sorry if this was too intrusive and scary. I just think it's reasonable to always consider the worst as we consider the best outcome possible.
The GREAT news is all of the speculations are pointing to the approval of the Ethereum ETFs , I personally expect the approval next week, so I'm ruling out anything but the BEST possible scenario for ETH this cycle!
Note: This was an exploration of a potential scenario based on the current context and state of the market, not financial advice.
27/05/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $71,999.47
Last weeks low: $69,028.57
Midpoint: $66,057.66
After a historical week for the crypto space with the ETH ETF approval has meant that BTC has taken somewhat of a backseat. Currently battling with the '21 ATH at SWB:69K while ETH is beginning to pic up strength in the ETH/BTC pair and take volume away from Bitcoin.
Ethereum has been a relatively slow mover in comparison to some of the rest of the altcoin market. However, now that the ETFs are approved and it is to be expected that ETH will have huge Inflows just as BTC did with a >50% increase since approval. All this means that I could see BTC fighting the '21 ATH for sometime while the altcoin market and mostly ETH will take the spotlight for the next week at least.
SWB:69K lines up well with the weekly range Midpoint and that's the key battle for BTC, so far this Bullrun we've seen BTC lead the way generally, could it be time for ETH to take over?
This week I think ETH and ETH beta plays (OP, ARB, LDO, METIS etc) are the ones to watch, I would be cautious when it comes to Longing ETH blindly at this level, yes the massive demand increase will help price rise but as we saw with BTC after ETF approval, price did drop 18% over two weeks post approval. I'm not saying this will definitely happen with ETH, so far despite an initial 10% whipsaw price has stayed generally the same with a slight move up, however It is worth noting.
Crypto Market Cap Analysis: Overbought RSI and Potential PumpThe crypto total market cap has followed the potential pump I mentioned last week. So, what's next for TOTAL?
From a technical analysis perspective, as we can see, the RSI is still in the overbought area, indicating a potential retest before continuing its pump. There is a big possibility that the pump will reach the greed zone area of 2.957 - 3.024T.
BTC BREAK OUT DONE! READY FOR $100K!!Hey everyone! If you find this content valuable, please consider giving it a thumbs up and following for more analysis.
Welcome to this BTC update!
BTC looks good here. BTC recently broke out of a bull flag pattern on the daily timeframe and has held above it so far. This could be a sign of continued bullish momentum. After this successful retest, expecting another leg up.
Target:- $130k
Invalidation: A daily close below SWB:69K will invalidate this bull flag.
What do you think about this setup? Share your views in the comment section.
20/05/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $67701.33
Last weeks low: $64227.62
Midpoint: $60753.92
We have lift off... maybe? Bitcoin has spent the last 2 months chopping between the low $70K's and high $50K's after a strong rally. However, it looks like strength has returned at least for now in BTC after the CPI print of Wednesday last week. This volatility influx moved BTC back above the 4H 200EMA which has been the all important level in determining the Mid - Low time frame trend. Now that price is back above I think the general sentiment would be to be more risk on, especially in terms of leverage than we've seen in the last few weeks. Not necessarily saying this is an ideal entry, just I think more confidence is returning to Bitcoin.
The altcoin market on the other hand with exception to a few top performers is lagging behind BTC, and that can be seen by the Bitcoin dominance at 56% currently and targeting local highs. For altcoins to begin reclaiming some of their loses we'd need BTC to get back above the '21 high of $69K.
Also, we have the ETH ETF approval deadline for VanEck and ArkInvest/ 21Shares on the 23rd &24th May respectively. Coinbase believes the odds of approval are closer to 30-40% so it would be a shock if these ETF's were approved by the SEC, however, if they were to be approved this could help kickstart the altcoin market again.
For this week it's about seeing if BTC can capitalise on last weeks progress and target the '21 ATH. The purple trendline needs to be respected on the way up otherwise I think we'll retest the MIDPOINT or even the 0.25 area.
Spotting the REAL Bitcoin ATHLet's talk about an ambiguously overlooked elephant in the crypto room, THE MINERS .
Bitcoin miners hold the most influence over the crypto market, despite the humble spotlight casted on them compared to other players like the exchanges and the ETF distributors.
What people really miss is the fact that miners HAVE to make the most raw profit , there is no ATH, no bull-run, no real surge unless Bitcoin miners make more profit than us!
So let's get right into how Bitcoin miners and the costs involved in the mining process could and has affected the price of Bitcoin during previous cycles.
Based on my research, Bitcoin surprisingly NEVER has dipped below the average mining cost during a bull-run.
During mid April 2021 , Bitcoin printed a new ~65000 ATH before starting a correction period that terrified investors. And if you were there back then, you'd remember how this correction was brutal to new traders.
However, after two weeks of shaking the hands, Bitcoin started forming a descending channel week after week, until the price touched the golden FIBONACCI level (61.8%) at ~28600 , which happened to be only ~2000 Dollars away from the average mining cost at that time, which was ~26500.
Briefly after, Bitcoin broke out of the descending channel and started surging towards its REAL ATH, ~69000 .
Now, you might ask what does that have to do with the current cycle?
Well, you're absolutely right!
This cycle is completely different , because the average cost of mining Bitcoin is at RIDICULOUSLY crazy ~57000 level !
And such extremely high production cost begs for a serious consideration of the validity of ~73000 as a REAL cycle ATH.
Do we really think that the current ATH is making miners enough profit?
I personally don't think so, especially after the price retested the ~57000 level (which happens to be the current average production cost of Bitcoin) days ago and rebounded from it.
It only makes sense to expect Bitcoin to print at least 70% profit for miners who produce Bitcoin at this point in time, especially after the halving event.
And predicting a deeper correction where miners would print LOSSES instead of profit during the BULL MARKET wouldn't be a sensible preposition.
It's extremely important to also mention that during the last cycle, Bitcoin NEVER dropped below its average production cost level until the bear market started .
In fact, dropping below that level might have been one of the most significant causes of the bear market to begin with.
Conclusion:
The bull market is exactly when Bitcoin NEEDS to make miners profit, it's why mining is functional, especially for small mining businesses that can't afford to keep their gear running without cyclic profit.
Bitcoin is currently rebounding from a price matching its current average mining cost after its post-halving correction. And based on the info in this brief research, this level should be where Bitcoin starts surging towards a new ATH.
During previous cycles, miners printed at least 100% profit after the halving events.
Will history repeat itself?
Will the ~57000 price level be the final rebounding level before making a new ATH of at least 100000?
Let's see!
Note: This was an exploration of a potential scenario based on the current context and state of the market, not financial advice.
13/05/24 Weekly outlookAre you getting bored yet? Another week of chop has elapsed, and in short there is not much else to say on the surface. BTC took out it's previous weeks high and then retraced roughly half of the progress made, filling the FVG left behind by the local move up and creating our range low for this week. As it so often does, the range perfectly shows the levels of which price action moves throughout the week. We had $1.1B worth of options expire on May 10th last week which gave BTC it's volatility on Friday creating the weeks low and creating an FVG. I believe it makers sense for price to work towards filling that FVG and retesting the MIDPOINT resistance. If price rejects then next stop is range low, if price accepts higher then range high is the target, simple as that on LTF.
In terms of the broader market, the ETF battle is still being won by the bearish GBTC Greyscale as their continued outflow of BTC with a outflow of $43M vs the net inflow of the 11 other US BTC spot ETFs totalling $32M . Resulting in a net outflow pf $11M
The altcoin market continues to weaken as BTC continues to chop, risk off on leverage continues until BTC can confidently regain the 4H 200EMA , until then spot and hold .
RNDR Long Set-UpA long here with the sessions vwap being the first TP and aiming for the daily level above (purple line) which was the last level relevant untested level before the recent sell off, seems like the best move.
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Render (RNDR) & NVIDIA AI Conference With the rise of Artificial Intelligence , many projects are looking to capitalise on the massive potential that AI promises.
One of those projects is RENDER , the first decentralized GPU rendering platform launched in 2017, the Render network is built to provide a platform for a wide array of computation tasks - from basic rendering to artificial intelligence - which are facilitated swiftly and efficiently in a blockchain-based peer-to-peer network, free from error or delay, while ensuring secure property rights.
Nvidia is a Tech company that focuses on production of high end graphics cards and is a world leader in Artificial Intelligence computing with a Market cap of 2.25 Trillion Dollars. Nvidia are holding an AI conference 17-21 March, one of those talks is a talk on "production rendering on GPU" on the 20th March. I would predict that Render could get a mention as the RNDR network is integrated into Nvidia Omniverse, the VP of Nvidia Omniverse is also an advisor to RNDR, so could we see any further ties between the two companies? If so I think this would propel an already well performing coin that has recently entered into price discovery.
Fib targets after the breakout are shown o the chart and these are the areas to be interested in. I am not ruling out a retest of the break above the previous ATH however with the momentum that we are seeing I think this retest could come a much later stage.
With RNDR's MCap of $3.6B there is no reason why this project shouldn't break into the top 10 at some point this cycle, currently this would mean a 4.85x to displace SHIB at 10th place double that again if you compare to SHIB ATH MCap. This project is just getting started.
All eyes on the Conference, I could see this potentially being a sell the news event as these things often are, however that would just open up a buying opportunity for DCA or long term holding.
XRP price are SET !!! XRP should hit $18 during May
As XRP has now reached the 700- day trendline.. holders today lawsuit against SEC is very important and here’s why I seek and see XRP will be victory in the court against SEC.
These prices keep them in your charts ! And I fully guarantee these price hit will surely will happen.
Btw if you bought XRP and owned about 1,000 XRP .. you will hit about $3.5 million if you hold. ( HINT HINT )
1- $18.57 ( Announcement of settlement)
2- $257.18 (Bank partnership & Integration )
3- $3,748.34 ( Ripple IPO )
4- $59,873 ( Global CBDC Integration)
DELYSIUM (AGI)One of my favourite altcoins for a number of reasons is DELYSIUM. An AI-powered open world framework project, the first web3 operating system that has seen incredible gains in the last year, up 467% YTD.
The AI narrative is a very strong one, perhaps the most likely to succeed in this Bullrun and so choosing the right projects to back over the next 12-18 months is so important.
Since the start of the year AGI has rapidly climbed to new heights, with a previous ATH of $0.45 Delysium moved into price discovery before losing momentum and falling back under. A big reason for this is not only because the rally ran out of steam but because BTC made a similar move, and once BTC pulls back the rest of the market is usually subject to the same move, however altcoins usually hold value much worse than BTC. The chart shows price has retraced back to the origin point of the last leg of the rally, the Bullish OB+ area and reacted well off this zone. After this strong reaction price meets the trendline resistance and fails to break it after 4 attempts. Another pullback into the Bullish OB+ give AGI another chance to escape the bearish trendline which it does and begins to make new Higher highs and Higher lows, a bullish trend has begun on the LTF. The last thing AGI now needs is to break market structure to confirm a new bullish trend which it does by sweeping the supply zone on the nearest local high. Using the Fibonacci zones we can find the best place for entry between the 0.62 & 0.79 areas of the pullback just after a "change of character" (CHoCH).
With strong fundamentals as well as bullish technical analysis it is clear that AGI is a great project to consider. With a strong probability trade like this and Take Profit (TP) targets as price continues its rally. Obviously as with all Altcoins they are subject to BTC price movements, this trade idea will really be determined by BTC regaining the 4h 200ema. If Bitcoin can do that we'll have more confidence and confluence in the trade idea, if BTC continues it's LTF downtrend then the trade idea could be postponed and look for a better entry. The Stop Loss (SL) will be the invalidation area.
06/04/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $64,741.58
Last weeks low: $56,573.01
Midpoint: $60,657.29
As April comes to a close, BTC post it's first red candle on the monthly for the first time since August of last year, that's exactly 7 months of green candles until now.
From a TA standpoint it comes as no surprise, BTC hit and surpassed the previous ATH, it was clear we would meet resistance at this level as is often the case whenever a coin reaches it's previous ATH. Now that the monthly close back under the 69K level that confirms a Swing Fail Pattern (SFP) which is HTF bearish, the first bearish confirmation we've seen on the HTF for quite some time, the first signs of exhaustion in the rally.
We are now in the "post halving" section of the Bullrun which we know has huge bullish potential, however in the short term Bitcoin is looking more bearish than it has done this year. Altcoins have already taken a huge hit, probably worse off than was expected if BTC pulled back and a lot of alts are in oversold territory . For any strength to return to the altcoin market BTC needs to return to strength and for that to happen all eyes are on the ETF inflows/outflows.
For this week I would be surprised if we saw anything other than further chop. The 4H 200EMA is still resisitance for now, a reclaim and acceptance above that level would be a bullish signal for continuation higher, until then building long term SPOT positions/DCA'ing on alts may be a good idea as prices are down 15-25% from their local highs. Leverage trading would require being very nimble to dip in and out of trading both sides.