BTC - The Upcoming Move that Will Surprise Most Everyone?!? I’m just gonna leave this here. What you’re looking at is a bar pattern copy of a previous move bitcoin has made overlaid onto the current chart - One that just so happens to align nearly perfectly with the Fibonacci levels, from the last daily swing low, to the hypothetically soon-coming swing hight, which would put the upcoming 0.382 at around $23,421, the golden pocket $27,000-$27,500 range, the 0.786 at around $29,585 and the 1.0 at $32,850, peaking there, sometime around August 15th to August 18th.
Let me know what y’all think.
***I’m not a Financial advisor nothing I said is financial advice and you shouldn’t buy or sell anything just because I discussed it in this post. You, and you alone are responsible for your financial decisions and risk management.
Bullrun
Is the Bull Run Over?Throughout the years following the Great Recession, many market analysts have warned that the bull run was ending.
Here's one such article from 2016: www.yahoo.com
So naturally, an important question for traders is how to objectively detect whether or not the bull run has ended by using charts.
My chart above aims to do that by using statistical tools. The chart uses a log-linear regression channel on the monthly chart of SPY to measure whether or not the bull run is intact. To create this log-linear regression channel, I added the "Linear Regression (Log Scale)" indicator by @Forza . I also added the "Linear Regression Formula" by @alexgrover to better gauge smaller scale trend reversals.
I modified the log-linear regression channel settings to include the entire period of the bull run following the Great Recession. More specifically, my look back period is from the bottom of the Great Recession (Count: 162, since it occurred 162 months ago). I kept the standard deviation at 2. A standard deviation of 2 means that this channel is likely to contain 95% of all price action.
Here are the ways that I use this log-linear regression channel to determine whether or not the bull run is still intact:
If price closes below the lower channel line, the next monthly candle must move back up and, at a minimum, tag the lower channel line. (This shows that buyers are coming in to buy the dip)
The linear regression line (the thin oscillating red line) cannot fall below the lower channel line of log-linear regression channel at the time of any monthly close. (If this line falls below the lower channel line it could resist price as it attempts to re-enter the channel, which in turn could signal an end to the trend).
Once price closes below the lower channel line, and then recovers to close above the lower channel line, price cannot then close below the channel again without first reaching the mean (red center line of the channel). (See below for illustration)
This last rule is important because it signifies that there were not enough buyers who were interested in buying the dip so as to enable price to recover to the mean.
If any of these rules fail, then it is a sign of weakness and the bull run that has been in place since the Great Recession may be ending.
My chart also shows overthrows, or periods when price thrusts above the 2nd standard deviation from the mean. (See chart below)
When the linear regression line crosses above the upper channel of the log-linear regression line that sends a signal that we are near a market top. In November 2021, the monthly SPY candle formed a bearish inverted hammer, which sent an additional signal that we are near the top. These signals are opportunities to become more defensive (e.g sell call options, begin to trail and narrow your stop losses for long position, stop adding new long positions).
Some traders may ask: What is the difference between a log-linear regression channel and just drawing a channel using candlesticks closing prices? The answer is that in the case of a log-linear regression channel the channel is derived mathematically from price action using a mean and standard deviations. One benefit of this method over drawing a channel using price action is that you can better detect overthrows and underthrows. This is to say that rather than drawing a wider channel to include all closing prices, a log-linear regression channel draws a narrower channel and signals high-probability buying and selling opportunities when price closes below or above the channel, respectively. Another difference is that a regression channel will not be as skewed by an outlier candlestick.
Aside from helping to determine if the bull run is over, this chart can help you decipher whether or not bullish predictions are realistic. For example, there are bulls on Trading View calling for SPY to reach 600 next year, unfortunately, that's unlikely to happen. In fact, based on this log-linear regression channel, the probability of that happening is less than 2.5% because it would require SPY to thrust above the upper channel line (2 standard deviations from the mean) of the log-linear regression channel. (See below for a diagram)
In summary, the stock market may seem like a roller coaster that randomly takes drastic swings, but the highs and lows of these swings are quite predictable.
UPDATE: FORTH UP 243% after bullish signal 🚀FORTH pumped 243% after the bullish Supertrend Ninja - Clean signal (green vertical line on the background).
FORTH broke out of the bullish Zone of the Ichimoku Cloud , which is bullish . The RSI is in the overbought zone at 85. RSI Brown at 123. If we take a look at the Average Directional Index ( ADX DI) its starting to be bearish , as it is pointing downwards. Currently FORTH is way above its upper Bollinger Band , Band Basis 20 Period SMA . A retrace back within the Bollinger Band is more likely. The risk to reward right now to enter a trade is bad.
Waiting patiently on a bullish Supertrend Ninja signal, before entering a long paid off.
Thank you for reading.
Namasté 🙏
Disclaimer: Ideas are for entertainment purposes only. Not financial advice. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering trades. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.
What Indicators Do I Use:
In the chart I am using the "Supertrend Ninja - Clean", which is a trend-following indicator (Green and red vertical lines on the background). When the background of the candlestick closes green (vertical line). It indicates a possible bullish (up)trend. And red for downtrends.
UPDATE: WING UP 600% after bullish signal 🚀WING pumped 600% after the bullish Supertrend Ninja - Clean signal (green vertical line on the background).
WING broke out of the bullish Zone of the Ichimoku Cloud , which is bullish . The RSI is in the overbought zone at 95. RSI Brown at 133. If we take a look at the Average Directional Index ( ADX DI) its starting to be bearish, as it is pointing downwards. Currently WING is way above its upper Bollinger Band, Band Basis 20 Period SMA . A retrace back within the Bollinger Band is more likely. The risk to reward right now to enter a trade is bad.
Waiting patiently on a bullish Supertrend Ninja signal, before entering a long paid off.
Thank you for reading.
Namasté 🙏
Disclaimer: Ideas are for entertainment purposes only. Not financial advice. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering trades. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.
What Indicators Do I Use:
In the chart I am using the "Supertrend Ninja - Clean", which is a trend-following indicator (Green and red vertical lines on the background). When the background of the candlestick closes green (vertical line). It indicates a possible bullish (up)trend. And red for downtrends.
UPDATE: UNI UP 83% after bullish signal - Ready for more 🚀UNI pumped 83% after the bullish Supertrend Ninja - Clean signal (green vertical line on the background).
UNI broke out of the bullish Zone of the Ichimoku Cloud , which is bullish . The RSI is in the bullish zone at 69. If we take a look at the Average Directional Index ( ADX DI) its bullish . The +DI (Green Line) is above the -DI (Red Line). Although the green line is pointing downwards. The Trend Strength is still strong. Since the ADX (Orange Line) is above its 9 Period EMA (Black Line).
Currently UNI is also above its Bollinger Bands Upper Band, Band Basis 20 Period SMA . A retrace within the Bollinger Band and the ADX pointing downwards, means a retrace is more likely. Note: UNI also hit the resistance (grey block).
Waiting patiently on a bullish Supertrend Ninja signal served me well.
Thank you for reading.
Namasté 🙏
Disclaimer: Ideas are for entertainment purposes only. Not financial advice. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering trades. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.
What Indicators Do I Use:
In the chart I am using the "Supertrend Ninja - Clean", which is a trend-following indicator (Green and red vertical lines on the background). When the background of the candlestick closes green (vertical line). It indicates a possible bullish (up)trend. And red for downtrends.
Timing Indicates Crypto and BTC bottom #3 I can hear your comments now "messy charting" etc. this is my proprietary pentagrams and pyramidS TA I used to call bottom on July 20 2021, BEFORE BTC went back above $30,000!! This corroborates with my other 2 posted charts! October 7 ish $77,000 ish !! ERC-20 tips accepted at 0x8aC6A06463733eA4A78B1C5Ee6E5446499f579F9.
BTC ANALYSIS hello traders
Let's analyze Bitcoin and see when the next bullish season starts
First, an introduction on which I will base my analysis and forecasting
Money markets are an endless auction. Price is the marketer, time is the regulator, and liquidity is the fuel that drives price up or down.
Let's apply this to Bitcoin
Second, the value area, which is the area with the most deals
Notice the price movement in this zone, the more the price goes up above the zone, it goes down and back to it, and the more it goes down below it, it goes up and back inside the zone.
After that there was a strong movement and the price rose a lot and in record time. As we mentioned that the price is the marketer and the time is the regulator, the rise of Bitcoin in such proportions and in a short period of time is contrary to the nature of the money markets, the price has become unacceptable and exaggerated, and this happened quickly and suddenly, here there is an imbalance between supply and demand
In this case, if it is a fake move, the price will return to the value area very quickly
And if you are the value of the currency, it will rise, there is a regulation process, which is the price return to the value area gradually, and the rise begins again, and I think this applies to Bitcoin
But why does the price have to go back to the value area before rising again?
Because as we mentioned that liquidity is the fuel that moves the price and that the top area has the largest amount of trades, and it is the only area that has enough liquidity to support the price to rise strongly again.
TLM is Primed! This is the time to stock up while its still lowTLM has been known for some big moves. It used to be $7 at one time. If you belive that BTC will return to the 60k all time high this is a hold because this should also return to hits prior highs and beyond if BTC reaches that magical 100k number people think it will this time.
As you can see (Zoom in) the ribbon cable only needs a very tine push in price to go over it. Its at the best price your going to get going foward. It's broken all prior downtrends and is fresh for the next run. You can double your money if this goes to 0.06 , tripple if it goes to $0.09 ect.... Don't wait to long once volume picks up these cheap prices will be Gone.
Btc Bottom? Elliot wave analysis of bitcoinAccording to my analysis btc complete elliot wave and correction pattern and it is ready to start it next bull run. It is the best opportunity to long term trade.
You can also check that rsi macd and stochastics all are giving the early bottom signal
Please do your own reasearch it is not a trading advice just idea
Is the NIFTY Bear Rally ending?The lines of MFI drawn here are from .... 2015
Yes, thats right, thats how long these things showcase patterns for. Go ahead try it out, its insanely accurate.
This bear Market semi rally should end at 16400 before reversing to 15600. It's enables it to hit the trendline, as well as fulfull MFI (and RSI key levels not shown here)
EASY TRADES
Short NIFTY when MFI >75 AND RSI >65
EXIT when MFI < 30 and RSI < 35
Simple, elegant, and works in all sideways markets.
2 min Homework : Put RSI(14) and MFI(14) on NIFTY and check 2018, 2015, and 2022 charts (non rally years)
$BTC to $26k ?!?! - Re test of Trend Line INCOMING!$BTC along with many alts are in insanely oversold territory. We have seen BTC rally back up and retest the trend line once so far and in the past 2017 we saw 3 taps on the down trend line before slowly breaking through (See chart in 2017 as posted) This doesn't mean we'll see this happen but where we are currently it would not surprise me to see this play out.
Target - $25k - $26k for retest of bear channel trend line
Bullish Sign ?Yo Guyzzz..
think this Matrx oscillator is tellng us something !!
In my opinion, this could be a sign of an upswing, wt do u think ??
I think this is a valuable sign even though this is the weekly chart..
It would be great to write me your opinion about BTC coming weeks stats....
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information.
BTC vs the Dollar Inflation Rate :-)I thought this was an interesting chart Dollar Inflation vs Bitcoin BTC percentage different with the Bitcoin BTC price on top since the start of the pandemic. I used this Date Jan. 31, 2020 since it was short of a worldwide reset of the financial system. It appeared to give about a week notice before the BTC price collapse. I will follow this chart thru the next bull run to see if gives any earlier indicators or not.
Don't worry Deeper Network DPR Crypto i have not forgotten about you. Your just taking to long to play out your Bearish M Pattern and i am getting bored waiting..................................