ETH bottom set in?Hello all,
Just speculation for fun from a fellow beginner and ETH holder.
We seem to be forming a pattern similar to 2018s Cycle bottom.
2018s cycle went down 94% from ATH to bottom. This cycle we've gone down around 70% from ATH.
if cycles were to somewhat repeat we could be in for another 60% to 80% correction at the current price in the worst case scenario OR a 180% increase throughout late January / Early February of 2023 which would mean ETH at around 4k with room for growth if macro economics don't deteriorate too much.
What do you think?
Bullrun
Crude Oil (1D) Correction probably finished, Ready for Rally ? Hello Traders,
Seems like Crude oil formed amazing 1:1 (A:C) Corrective pattern as setup for next Bullish Rally.
So there could be several more months with prices and gains for miners. Also it could cause increase of Inflation and Electricity prices.
I´m staying out of this market, because I really lack experience how to play it (Any advice in comments is highly appreciated).
My best guess is to find some undervalued Oil Miners if its still possible. (well played with OXY Mr. Buffet)...
Enjoy the markets and stay green ;)
BITCOIN CAN GO DOWN AGAIN!!Since the 16th of june, btc has entered a correction phase, and today the btc breaks the channel where it was balancing.
So what can we expect?
The market will probably try to do a pullback on the 50 MA and the parallel channel at the same time, and then go all the way down again to 17616!
Meta – Is it Finally Time to Buy?If you like this idea don’t forget to BOOST it.
Fundamental Indicators:
Sector – Communication Services
US Business Cycle Stage – late cycle, when this sector is neutral
Revenue – consistent growth for the past 10 years, 25% average annual growth rate for the past 5 years but with a considerable slowdown in 2022 TTM
Profits – dropping in 2022 TTM
Net margin – impressive 28% but reduced from previous 30-40% levels
P/E – already acceptable with 14 ratio compared to S&P500 with 21 and Communication Services sector 17
Liabilities - debt ratio is at 0.26 which is within normal limits, Net Debt/ EBITDA is negative – no problems with debt
Conclusion – although still good financial performance the latest reports are showing slowdown in user base and ad revenue growth, as well as high CAPEX investments into new platform Metaverse – all indicating that there are no positive signs for the new growth cycle yet, but given low PE it is likely to have another mid-term rally (see below scenarios)
Technical Analysis (Elliott Waves):
Main scenario of this idea suggests that the peak of August 2021 saw completion of the first global wave, and we are currently observing formation of wave 2 (see higher timeframe graph)
The sharp fall from historic high is likely to be the first leg of the overall correction in wave 2 and is shaped by ABC zigzag
Wave A and B have been fully completed and wave C is also near completion with an Ending Diagonal in wave 5 (see guidelines for Ending Diagonals below)
Once the current low of $154.25 is slightly pierced by the final zigzag of wave 5 we are likely to see a rally to the upside, possible scenarios are depicted below
This is a higher timeframe to reflect the full history of Meta and to provide full wave count:
This is the link to the guidelines for Ending Diagonals
What do you think about Meta and its short term prospects?
Also let me know if you would like to see other stocks, indices, Forex or Crypto analysed using Elliott Waves. And BOOST this idea if you like it.
Thanks
Bullish GER30 ?So far the bullish trendline has been respected, let us anticipate whether out support will be respected once more and from that we can expect a bullish GER30 once more
Probably BITCOIN may local Top Here? or Move higher!! #BTC Weekly Chart
When I tried to look at BTC from macro/weekly time frame, my perspective changed a little. I'm not much convinced with this rally from 17.6k to 25k unless and until we break that Giant Trend-line initiating from Nov 2021(Cycle Top).
I'll sum this chart here in brief for your better understanding. Btc made All time High in Nov 2021 which marked start of Bear run.
Bear Run Phase 1 - Dump from Nov 2021(69k) to Jan 2022 (33k) and Relief rally from Jan 2022 (33k) to March 2022 (48k - Higher Low)
Bear Run Phase 2 - Dump from March 2022 (48k) to June 2022 (18k) and Relief Rally from June 2022 (18k) to Aug 2022 (25-27k Potential next HL)
Only positive here is Btc is back above weekly MA 200 which is giving it a Little bullish insights. I personally believe, Btc will like do a Fakeout this week or by next week towards 25-27k, touch the trendline and head towards another Bear Phase. Only break of this trend-line and close above it will make Bullish Case Alive.
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QQQ Uptrend BULL biasFrom the Daily Chart, QQQ is now in an uptrend above
the support of the daily SMA 50, 100, and 200 in somewhat of an ascending wedge pattern.
Distant support is the buy order zone while distant resistance is the
sell order zone above. Immediate ( and breakable ) resistance is
the POC of the volume profile.
I conclude that QQQ is in a sustained up-trend that could be entered
using a stop loss set just below the SMA 200 on the chart in blue.
What is your opinion? NASDAQ:QQQ Please comment.
DXY (1W) ready for next BULL Run = Risk Off mode incoming. Hi Traders,
As you probably think what is the best indicator // driving force of current Stock / Crypto / Commodity markets (?)...
Its probably Dollar Index. You can see its going upwards in a HUGE channel.
If there is THE Recession coming (or its already in progress) ... than we Have to follow what is doing the World reserve currency. (Until it well be replaced or loose some of its position in a mix of other currencies).
So MAJOR trend is upwards, as you can see at 1W/1M chart.
Minor trend at 1D chart is currently sideways / down. 1D chart is attached. = Seems like its forming a BULL flag.
Hence right now most indexes are in corrective stage and many of them corrected about 50%+ Upwards from local lows.
Lets see what is going to happen in next months.
My Humble expectation is there will be 6+ (up to 18 months) of Bear market.
It will depend a LOT what can do Central banks to save the situation if its really necessary (High inflation, decreasing GDP, Economic slowdown, ...).
Take care and stay Green ;)
Here I call it. THIS IS A BEAR-MARKET RALLY!This analysis in context of the general markets as the general market sentiment decides my crypto bias.
- I see rally driven on low institutional buy-back volume
- I see leading global economy in denial
- I see inflation at a super-high levels and not coming down
- I see real-estate entering bubble territory
- I see demand destruction
- I see consumer purchasing power folding
- I see complex military conflicts from global proportions
Do you honestly think without retails share a market can enter bull cycle?
Strong retail is PREREQUISITE for strong market and retail now is anything but strong.
SPY $424 then bounce off 9mMA and 20mMA crossover about AUG19Everything for SPY appears to target AUG19 as the potential roll over at 9monthly MA and 20monthly MA crossover. VIX will hit about 18 if this price is achieved.
Purple curve represents realized Volatility.
Orange curve represents implied volatility for AUG19 when it was taken around JUL monthly.
Realized Volatility set-up to reach 9MA @ $424 SPY.
Slow-Stoch is showing exhaustion but a short is not wise until it falls under 80.
TD9 = exhausted but keeps regenerating on periodic intersections.
Won't long - too little payoff to risk, but won't short either. Will wait for more info.