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Bulltrap

Closer Look At The Bull Trap In The MakingLet's look at the overbought area and the bull trap in the making. With "the talk" is now over, price started struggling to cross above the old weekly lows and got rejected twice as a sign of weakness. Coincidentally few days before "the talk", JP Morgan unleashed their customers from buying GBTC crypto funds. Is this the demand we were waiting for? In other words, are these the people being trapped right now? Probably yes. I'm expecting a short term weak uptrend followed by a down move below 30k. Best!
Short
by BitcoinMillio18
34
Stop Loss HuntingInstitutional investors have a profound impact on financial instruments prices because of their large volume trading activities. They can greatly impact the price of financial instruments, however making a material impact and hence decreasing liquidity to the point where there may be no one to take the other side of the trade is not something they desire. To fill their large in size orders with better price levels, Institutional investors need liquidity, they cannot just enter a trade at once, but they split trades over time and slowly have to build a position by hunting for liquidity. One of their strategic approach and the best way to get liquidity without making a material impact of the price and get filled in better price levels is Stop Loss Hunting . A stop-loss order is an order placed to buy or sell a financial instrument when it reaches a certain price with the aim to limit loss on a position or protect profits. Where do we usually place our stop orders? For a long trade example, usually we set them just below a support level, a trend line, a longer-term moving average, previous day low or a specific ATR percentage etc, which are highly predictable. Institutional investors simply need to trigger stop loss orders of thousand of traders and since a key level is borken new traders joins by entering positions, making them take trades in the wrong direction, which as a result creates a huge supply with enough liquidity to absorb Institutional investor's demand with better prices Some examples Stop Loss houting can be observed frequently
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FX_IDC:XAUUSDEducation
by dgtrd
212
I sold My Car And I'm NOT Buying Bitcoin!My wife just got a new job and we now have a company car! There's no point in keeping our car, because it's a deprecating asset. However, as much as i want to buy more Bitcoin with this cash, i'm just not buying now and here's why; If you look at the downward channel, you'll see that the last time price went above, ended up with a mark down. It's way too risky to buy here right now. This is a bull trap at it's best. So, let's review my bullish case; 1- Break the triangle (and make sure it's not a bull trap) 2- Break $37k 3- Break $41k Even if the triangle looks like being violated, it just means it's in the overbought territory. Whenever i bought the overbought condition, i lost. Instead, i'll assume this violation is a bull trap and wait for the next oversold condition which is below 22k! That's 35% down from current price and once it reaches there with a climactic action, it won't stop until everyone believes Bitcoin is dead. Why have a nightmare? So, here's the scenario i'm buying; Given we are in redistribution, not accumulation; 1- This current moment is last point of supply (LPSY) 2- Markdown will follow down to December 2020 lows at $17.500 3- Start sideways accumulation verified with net buying activity on the volume profile 4- The spring event occurs and verifies with change of character, stong volume 5- I buy (Else, i wait for another drop) 6- Price rallies to 80k in November 7- Evaluate sideways action whether it's distribution or re-accumulation. 8- Sell with 4x profit if it's redistribution, else ride until 100k and above! Why 80k? Read my recent analysis: Ofcourse it's too early to give price target, we will need to calculate the horizontal count during the real accumulation and adjust our estimation, but so far this is what i can say. Until then friends, i'm sitting on cash enjoying stable daily interest. DON'T FOMO, you can always buy later.
Short
by BitcoinMillio18
55
Bull Trap After Bear Trap!Composite Man loves tricking us. We were expecting a secondary test (ST) but it gave us a spring and wanted us to think this was the bottom. In fact what he gave us was a bear trap! How do we know this wasn't the spring we were looking for? By looking at the volume. The reason these shakeouts are made is to make sure supply is exhausted. When it happens we should have low volume. If you look at the volume of the shakeout on the 22nd, you'll notice it's the third highest bar in the trading range, almost on par with the second highest volume. If you also watched this bar closely while it was in the making, it was a red bearish candle almost all day. The moment it became clear that the supply is far from being exhausted, composite man started buying and his next trick begun: the bull trap. This time the Composite Man gave us a breakout of the downtrend, but wait does that really look like a breakout to you? I mean look at how slowly price has recovered 3/4 of it's loss in 3 days, which it lost in just one day and still trying! Look at the decreasing volume in contrast with so called "rally". This is a weak, fake breakout and a trap, this time for the bulls. As you can see it's getting dirty. Try zooming out when in doubt. Let's look at weekly chart for example: We have 3 more days to close this weeks candle. How do you think this week will close and more importantly what will the next week look like given the bearishness? Wyckoff isn't interested in volatile and sideways markets. He wants to trade with the trend, therefore, we will wait patiently until a clear trend arise with correct signals! Trade safe!
Short
by BitcoinMillio18
22
Quickpost ETHBTC Bull Trap is inThere is a lot on the log chart so lets look at the target setting on the standard chart. The implications for this are pretty bad, if ETHBTC dips then probably both ETH and BTC will be going down, and ETH faster than BTC. Alts and shitcoins more volatile than ETH will go down even faster than eth. I am personally using this chart as confluence to short an alt I like to work with. The head and ETHBTC neckline is now acting as resistance. Potentially disastrous for the broader crypto market. Stops should be easy to set for anyone with the basics of setting stops (not shown due to quickpost and having to get the kiddos to bed).
Short
by This_Guhy
6
a lesson on bullflags so a bullflag how does it work why does it indicate a move up and when is it invalid so bullflag is a move up by buyers generally and then a pause in momentum while it goes sideways or down SLIGHTLY then a continuation up if it breaks out which indicates that buyers are still in control and you can join the move with them WHEN IS IT INVALID ? a bullflag can be invalid for many reasons and all of them summarize to the same core reason BUYERS ARE NOT IN COINTROL at least not fully enough to be confident to join with them on the move 1 is the measurement of the flag so if there is a move up of 10 and there is a pullback to 2 3 that's normal fluctuation but if there is a pullback of more then 5 which is 50% of the pole then this shows there is a strong presents of bears thus making the flag invalid 2 is volume most people learn TA by word of mouth and they miss some important parts most TA has some form of volume analysis needed but most skip that so on a bullflag you wanna see big volume on the pole ( that shows strong bulls pressure ) and weak volume on the flag up top ( that show weak bears ) now this is a small timeframe chart on bitcoin but it shows a example why volume is so important on this bullflag youll notice the volume on the pole is weak and up top on the flag there is heavy volume thus making the flag invalid and likely the whole breakout of the pennant was a bull trap this is not financial advice my opinions and analysis only
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by UnknownUnicorn15881386
Relief Rally about to beginThis is an update on the indicators and concepts I have been watching for a couple of months now. I was hoping for the signal on the NVT to be apparent on the 1 day chart for an even better entry but so far that signal isn't as clear as the 2 day chart. In short, the NVT went into the green which is a position that for the last couple of years loathes to be in. As such it seems very clear that we will have a bounce from here. If yo are an accumulator you would be looking to accumulate here for the long run Perhaps not as much as you would if you see the NVT flash its buy signal on the weekly. Key Concept Major moves happen when key levels or trendlines are tested and retested. They flip from support to resisntance and back. Trendlines come back to life after months or even years after we thought they were not needed any more. The key thing I will be evaluating is how the price action will act at the purple trendline. Due to my current bearish bias It hink that it will act bearishly as resistance. This price action is a lot flatter than the top 3 and more resembles top 2. Either way the plays would be the same. Once of the levels I want to see flip from resistance to support are the fib log growth curves. I have left in just the levels aroung 50% to show how important the levels are. I expect the light blue level to act as resistance here shortly. The plays If you don't like the risk at shorting you are going to be watching the trendlines for that sign of rejection before you dump your bags. Bull traps are the last chance for bag holders who missed the first dump to exit their positions. A pateint trader or investor will be evaluationg to see if the trendline can be beaten as resistance and if the price action actually hops on top of the purple trendline then the crisis is averted. But if both the purple and orange trendlines act as resistance then it is very bad news bears. If you are a trader and have the risk and stress apetite you will be looking to long the move into the bulltrap and then short the next dump. This requires some effort and ability and isn't recommended for the general trading population. Coming up shortly will be the sister post for the day looking at volume and ichi-moku clouds. This post is tagged neutral because you could use it to go long and short depending on your preference
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by This_Guhy
8
BTC/USD - Heading to $21,000As we watch the price for BTC develop from it's recent lows, we haven't seen much bullish action and it seems as if bears just have complete control at the moment. I was super bullish on this pair but as we move forward, there are just more and more signs that BTC will soon be making a new bottom. With the little amount of buying pressure I'm currently seeing price struggle more and more after the recent closure on the 4 hour. (which I believe you will be able to see if you were to "make this chart yours", you'll be able to see a further breakdown on other indications I found that helps support this current trade idea.) - Two Failed Inverse Head and Shoulders - Current (Completion) of Head and Shoulders All in all, it's really not looking good for any bullish traders that are still trying to bet against the current trend and feel bad for all those still holding. I do believe we will see price come back and retest its structure that lines up with the 23% fib level on the 4 Hour Time Frame, and again on the daily time frame in an attempt to capture more bulls before the next leg down because that's the pattern we've been seeing this whole time. I did have a couple of other things like wave analysis and a few other points but I want to get this thing out before the move happens and it's already been over an hour since I started. Lol. Trade Smart and Trade Safe
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by Trump4FxPresident
3
NVT by aamonkey (and my charting) suggest bull trap lower downI have been looking for the bull trap bounce for a while now and I have been looking to use aamonkey's version of the NVT as a way of helping steady my hands and clarify my thinking. The blue measured move show historical losses of highs to the top of the orange box and that orange box has been a serious area of consolidation in the past before the final low is reached. Very clearly we have some distance to transverse if we reach historic targets based on this pattern. The orange box shows where a quick area of consolidation has lead to a bounce on BTC before. The yellow box is where the bull trap has topped based on historic behavior before. Manipulate the chart, squint your eyes, it is all there. Here is our daily chart all kindz of zoomed in. This lets us look more closely at the all time highs and it lets us evaluate the price action that I suggest will act as support. We can also see that the NVT has not flashed green yet on the daily. Key point to remember is it flashing green on the daily is not a dummy buy signal. It just means that the network, roughly is undervalued for the number of transactions it is processing. It is just telling us that this is where long term investors could be happy to begin the long accumulation process. I intend to update this as needed as time goes on. It is going to be very stressful and fortunes will be made and lost on the next couple of days to weeks and all moves during this time are higher risk than normal, and that normal is already very high risk for crypto. The linked charts will show my recent streak of good luck with charting that could break at any time as well as some other attempts of forecasting future moves. This dump could be worse than others, so we don't know how this is going to go.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by This_Guhy
9
Bitcoin's two options: Rapid recovery or roll overThe chart is on the daily time frame but I have programed in the CM ultimate to have the 20 SMA on it, which is close enough to the 20 week EMA as to not matter. Both are very conventional timeframes to use but I prefer the 20 SMA because it is the baseline of the bollinger band (not show). Please see the linked ideas if you want to see more indicators. Key Points purple areas of investigation Trend line support and 20 week SMA coincide with the purple area bounce Consolidation lasted for about 2-3 weeks. On Balance Volume was below its 100 EMA Orange Areas Occurs after purple the trendline and 20w SMA act as area of resistance On Balance Volume still under 100 EMA Must needs before I become a buyer again OBV gets above the 100 EMA Price action recovers rapidly get some white space between it and the 20 week SMA Price action very quickly gets above the red resistance line. Out of everything in the post, if you want to simply everything to one key point, the price action needs to get above the red trendline. It is pretty simple. Other Implications The crypto market could be lulled into complacency of the next week or so as alts continue to make new highs as BTC chops sideways. I personally have a long on Tezos under the assumption that this could be a few weeks of sideway. If I am wrong I take a get stopped out on a calculated loss and I resume shorting almost everything crypto. If BTC recovers very quickly then alts might have a slowdown as BTC draws money away, especially form those that trade crypto/btc pairings. Very suppositional at this point
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by This_Guhy
3