Bulltrap
a lesson on bullflags so a bullflag how does it work why does it indicate a move up and when is it invalid
so bullflag is a move up by buyers generally and then a pause in momentum while it goes sideways or down SLIGHTLY then a continuation up if it breaks out which indicates that buyers are still in control and you can join the move with them
WHEN IS IT INVALID ?
a bullflag can be invalid for many reasons and all of them summarize to the same core reason BUYERS ARE NOT IN COINTROL at least not fully enough to be confident to join with them on the move
1 is the measurement of the flag so if there is a move up of 10 and there is a pullback to 2 3 that's normal fluctuation but if there is a pullback of more then 5 which is 50% of the pole then this shows there is a strong presents of bears thus making the flag invalid
2 is volume most people learn TA by word of mouth and they miss some important parts most TA has some form of volume analysis needed but most skip that so on a bullflag you wanna see big volume on the pole ( that shows strong bulls pressure ) and weak volume on the flag up top ( that show weak bears )
now this is a small timeframe chart on bitcoin but it shows a example why volume is so important on this bullflag youll notice the volume on the pole is weak and up top on the flag there is heavy volume thus making the flag invalid and likely the whole breakout of the pennant was a bull trap
this is not financial advice my opinions and analysis only
Relief Rally about to beginThis is an update on the indicators and concepts I have been watching for a couple of months now. I was hoping for the signal on the NVT to be apparent on the 1 day chart for an even better entry but so far that signal isn't as clear as the 2 day chart. In short, the NVT went into the green which is a position that for the last couple of years loathes to be in. As such it seems very clear that we will have a bounce from here. If yo are an accumulator you would be looking to accumulate here for the long run Perhaps not as much as you would if you see the NVT flash its buy signal on the weekly.
Key Concept
Major moves happen when key levels or trendlines are tested and retested. They flip from support to resisntance and back. Trendlines come back to life after months or even years after we thought they were not needed any more. The key thing I will be evaluating is how the price action will act at the purple trendline. Due to my current bearish bias It hink that it will act bearishly as resistance. This price action is a lot flatter than the top 3 and more resembles top 2. Either way the plays would be the same. Once of the levels I want to see flip from resistance to support are the fib log growth curves. I have left in just the levels aroung 50% to show how important the levels are. I expect the light blue level to act as resistance here shortly.
The plays
If you don't like the risk at shorting you are going to be watching the trendlines for that sign of rejection before you dump your bags. Bull traps are the last chance for bag holders who missed the first dump to exit their positions. A pateint trader or investor will be evaluationg to see if the trendline can be beaten as resistance and if the price action actually hops on top of the purple trendline then the crisis is averted. But if both the purple and orange trendlines act as resistance then it is very bad news bears.
If you are a trader and have the risk and stress apetite you will be looking to long the move into the bulltrap and then short the next dump. This requires some effort and ability and isn't recommended for the general trading population.
Coming up shortly will be the sister post for the day looking at volume and ichi-moku clouds. This post is tagged neutral because you could use it to go long and short depending on your preference
BTC/USD - Heading to $21,000As we watch the price for BTC develop from it's recent lows, we haven't seen much bullish action and it seems as if bears just have complete control at the moment. I was super bullish on this pair but as we move forward, there are just more and more signs that BTC will soon be making a new bottom.
With the little amount of buying pressure I'm currently seeing price struggle more and more after the recent closure on the 4 hour.
(which I believe you will be able to see if you were to "make this chart yours", you'll be able to see a further breakdown on other indications I found that helps support this current trade idea.)
- Two Failed Inverse Head and Shoulders
- Current (Completion) of Head and Shoulders
All in all, it's really not looking good for any bullish traders that are still trying to bet against the current trend and feel bad for all those still holding.
I do believe we will see price come back and retest its structure that lines up with the 23% fib level on the 4 Hour Time Frame, and again on the daily time frame in an attempt to capture more bulls before the next leg down because that's the pattern we've been seeing this whole time.
I did have a couple of other things like wave analysis and a few other points but I want to get this thing out before the move happens and it's already been over an hour since I started. Lol.
Trade Smart and Trade Safe
Bitcoin Video Update - ⚠️VOLATILITY ALERT⚠️Updated video on Bitcoin.
We have had a 'nice' combination of Bull Trap-Bear Trap with the price going sideways and scaring away buyers and sellers but volatility is about to kick in.
Take a look at the video and let me know your thoughts.
the FXPROFESSOR
NVT by aamonkey (and my charting) suggest bull trap lower downI have been looking for the bull trap bounce for a while now and I have been looking to use aamonkey's version of the NVT as a way of helping steady my hands and clarify my thinking.
The blue measured move show historical losses of highs to the top of the orange box and that orange box has been a serious area of consolidation in the past before the final low is reached. Very clearly we have some distance to transverse if we reach historic targets based on this pattern. The orange box shows where a quick area of consolidation has lead to a bounce on BTC before. The yellow box is where the bull trap has topped based on historic behavior before. Manipulate the chart, squint your eyes, it is all there.
Here is our daily chart all kindz of zoomed in. This lets us look more closely at the all time highs and it lets us evaluate the price action that I suggest will act as support. We can also see that the NVT has not flashed green yet on the daily.
Key point to remember is it flashing green on the daily is not a dummy buy signal. It just means that the network, roughly is undervalued for the number of transactions it is processing. It is just telling us that this is where long term investors could be happy to begin the long accumulation process.
I intend to update this as needed as time goes on. It is going to be very stressful and fortunes will be made and lost on the next couple of days to weeks and all moves during this time are higher risk than normal, and that normal is already very high risk for crypto. The linked charts will show my recent streak of good luck with charting that could break at any time as well as some other attempts of forecasting future moves. This dump could be worse than others, so we don't know how this is going to go.
XAU Short the BulltrapXAU Presents a Pending bearish opportunity toward a bearish pullback towards the daily 38.2% Fib level at 1812.00 level retracement.
This secures the strength of the bullish move recently breaking the Monthly resistance of 1840.00 , we are able to continue looking for a long position once this move has completed
Buying zone remains at 1800 - 1812 zone for the almighty push toward 2104.00
Bitcoin's two options: Rapid recovery or roll overThe chart is on the daily time frame but I have programed in the CM ultimate to have the 20 SMA on it, which is close enough to the 20 week EMA as to not matter. Both are very conventional timeframes to use but I prefer the 20 SMA because it is the baseline of the bollinger band (not show). Please see the linked ideas if you want to see more indicators.
Key Points
purple areas of investigation
Trend line support and 20 week SMA coincide with the purple area bounce
Consolidation lasted for about 2-3 weeks.
On Balance Volume was below its 100 EMA
Orange Areas
Occurs after purple
the trendline and 20w SMA act as area of resistance
On Balance Volume still under 100 EMA
Must needs before I become a buyer again
OBV gets above the 100 EMA
Price action recovers rapidly get some white space between it and the 20 week SMA
Price action very quickly gets above the red resistance line.
Out of everything in the post, if you want to simply everything to one key point, the price action needs to get above the red trendline. It is pretty simple.
Other Implications
The crypto market could be lulled into complacency of the next week or so as alts continue to make new highs as BTC chops sideways. I personally have a long on Tezos under the assumption that this could be a few weeks of sideway. If I am wrong I take a get stopped out on a calculated loss and I resume shorting almost everything crypto. If BTC recovers very quickly then alts might have a slowdown as BTC draws money away, especially form those that trade crypto/btc pairings. Very suppositional at this point
XRP Potential Bull Trap In Progress..Hey everyone, So I was busy eating dinner and missed the last hour bar close above the resistance of my Triangle...
None the less, Though it has broken up out of the triangle, The EMA's have not crossed just yet. Also, BTC has not yet reclaimed 50k.
Now we watch closely to see if BTC closes an hourly candle above 50k or gets rejected again, and if our EMA's on XRP 1hr complete a cross-over.
IMPORTANT NOTE:
I have updated my EMA's to Fibonacci numbers shown Below:
Green EMA: 8
Red EMA: 21
I have found these to be more accurate.
Also please take note that I utilize Heikin Ashi Candle Sticks in my charts.
BTCUSD :: Ultimate bull run toying with you brainz!The 4H 50/200 EMA is taunting all the smart bulls.. talk about a crafty trapper! If it keeps getting rejected, heading back to $42-43k for the stackers.
Begginer guideLets take a look and debate if this is valid. Bear trap is questionable. Only for begginers like me, but every comment will be apriciated!
BTC - D1 - BULL TRAP ?D1 : Looking at the Thursday, Friday and Saturday
candles we can see the following :
1) Thursday's candle shows a test of the bottom of the clouds @ 52'379
2) Friday's candle shows a sharp and strong reversal pattern (long white candle) with its closing above the clouds
3) After having filled the 61.8% Fib ret @ 58'060 (intraday high @ 58'549) a "DOJI" pattern took place on a closing basis
Today's ongoing pattern is showing a "potential" reversal price action; the MID BOLLINGER BAND has already been tested and should,
as already mentioned several times, be considered as one of the best LEADING INDICATOR,
Therefore, a daily closing below 56'286 would would give an additional support for this ongoing trend reversal.
Below :
S1 : 55'949
S2 : 53'838
On the upside, in order to neutralise this ongoing downside risk, BTC needs to close today , first of all :
1) above the Mid Bollinger Band
and secondly :
2) above the clouds
Watch shorter time frames to get clues.
Have a nice Sunday
All the best and take care
Ironman8848
BTC forming an Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern?Not investment advice. Not a professional.
IDEA: BTC completed a Bullish Cypher Harmonic , so likely up a bit for now at the very least.
Previous post proposed possible Expanding Symmetrical Triangle forming. I'm in the camp that would be bet this Bull Run isn't over yet but a larger correction will happen at some point in the near future before we make any more meaningful moves up. I'll never say never, but a dip to $40k or below rn just seems a little out of reach given the current market sentiment IMO.
If I had to bet, I'm thinking we're currently forming the HEAD of an INVERSE HEAD & SHOULDERS PATTERN . Just like the stock market, I don't think BTC is quite done consolidating yet. I think we'll see one more Bull Trap to a slightly higher high around $68k > a modest pullback > then off to the races again.
Or I'm completely wrong, who knows. Cheers.
Quick read: Bitcoin setting up a temporary bull trapThe main chart says a lot with the descriptions to save time with a longer post.
Here is a pared down example form 2017 of the same pattern on btcusd in 2017 before things went ballistic. The measured move is from the top of the bull trap to the bottom of the downtrend into the green buy zone. This may not play out exactly the same way but it should be very similar if the bulls have any hope of getting above 64k again.
BTCUSD REVERSAL PATTERNS please support my idea with "LIKE" and write any comment what you think, it mean lot to me there nothing cost and thank you, my friend.
Bloody Sunday For Bitcoin?If you are happy that Bitcoin closed the day above $50k and you are lucky enough to buy the dip, wait until you realize Bitcoin was around $1.000 shy from yesterdays close and the daily downtrend line was not even tested.
This means one thing: We will have another down day and further.
Expect a huge drop in few hours if not minutes, whales started dumping. The bull trap has completed!
Astala vista baby!
btcusd bull trapplease support my idea with "LIKE" and write any comment what you think, it mean lot to me there nothing cost and thank you, my friend.
BTCUSD BULLTRAP DONEplease support my idea with "LIKE" and write any comment what you think, it mean lot to me there nothing cost and thank you, my friend.
BitCoin Quick Elliott Wave Analysis and Projection Quick 10 Seconds Elliott Wave Count and Future Projection (Crystal Ball)
It appears to be in the process of an ABC Correction
Currently doing a B within B
The C within the B Up will become the B Trap
and then the C down.
First it will go to $54K then down to $37K.
It's the Crystal Ball Talking - Let's find out what happens
BTCUSD - D1 - LAST CLOSING ABOVE MBB...D1 : Yesterday's long bullish white candle triggered a closing level above the Mid Bollinger Band which
should be seen as a first positive signal for an upside continuation price action.
Nevertheless, I would suggest to remain extremely cautious following this "shy" upside breakout of both, MBB and
channel downtrend line resistance.
Indeed, before switching from BEARISH to BULLISH, we clearly need to have a strong confirmation of this breakout in order
to avoid a BULL TRAP !!!
Therefore, ongoing price action over the coming hours and more important today's closing level would either validate or invalidate
the yesterday's breakout.
See H4 below for additional information on shorter time frame
H4 : As shown the upside breakout of both clouds and downtrend channel still looks fragile...
Indeed, successive small candles are showing some indecision and uncertainty about further development either on the upside
or on the downside.
BTC is currently traded in the upside pivot zone trading range (50000-52650) and a clear breakout of the former high @ 52650 woul
add further support for a continuation upside move.
On the other side, former top resistance line of the downtrend channel ahead of Tenkan-Sen (Conversion line) @ 50053, should be seen as the first short term support level, ahead of the former "cluster" of both Mid Bollinger Band and Kijun-Sen (Base line) which is the first significant
support area being slightly above the 49000 area and last but not least the top of the clouds support zone (49000-47800) !
Watch shorter time frames H1 and M15 to get intermediate validation or invalidation signal (s)
Have a nice trading week.
All the best and take care
Head & Shoulders Pattern on XLKIt appears a head-and-shoulders pattern is beginning to form on the XLK. If the right shoulder fully forms, look out below!
