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Bulltrap

BULL TRAPesaurus REX"B waves are phonies. They are sucker plays, BULL TRAPS, speculators' paradise, orgies of odd-lotter mentality or expressions of dumb institutional complacency (or both). They often are unconfirmed by other averages, are rarely technically strong, and are virtually always doomed to complete retracement by wave C. If the analyst can easily say to himself (or herself), 'There is something wrong with this market,' chances are it is a B wave". - Robert Prechter The Elliot Wave Principle: A Key to Market Behavior A lot of bearish divergences across TFs.. This AB movement has been anything but pretty -random volume, bearish patterns breaking bullish, a speculative FRENZY. Profits will be taken. Don't get eaten by miners.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by BitCapJNY
6
TSLA Major Correction? Share your thoughts!Today I decided to zoom out and look at the big picture. I was looking at the monthly chart of NASDAQ:TSLA . I noticed that the current month is a green 8 on the TD sell setup, which means that next month is going to be the reversal signal. I imagine the candle of February to be red or a bearish pin bar (shooting star). Before I dive into the analysis, I want to make clear that I am long TSLA. Fundamentals have not changed. Tesla is going to be the biggest disruptor of the decade. What this analysis suggests is merely a correction. The scale of the correction might be too big. I measured it to be 38% at the smallest price range of the movement, and 49% at most. It is. no doubt. steep compared to the most recent correction of 34% in Sep 2020 which I marked in the chart above. Either way, TSLA is no stranger to these swings, so let's give it a deeper look. I previously called a target for TSLA at $1050 which lies above the border of the broadening wedge. This target has not yet been achieved, so we're still in that long position. It's actually playing out as drawn (see related idea ). From there, I see a breakout and going to new highs towards $2000 during 2021 as this image illustrates. But seriously, how is it fun sailing up to $2000 without some bumpiness? Right? From where we are right now, a rise to $2000 makes a little more than 2X in terms of gain. But take it down a notch and correct to about $550 and then jack it up all the way to $2200; and you get the headline "Tesla climbs 4X in 3 months as more wall street shorts get liquidated!". Michael Burry will have exited his short of course. Oh and what would cause such a crash is perhaps another Tesla crashing into a police patrol while on full-self driving. Now that we imagined it, let's see it on the chart. I drew two downward paths. Both are one-month long. The first starts after the $1050 target is reached. This will be the ultimate bull trap. Traders who sell at the top of the broadening wedge and would re-enter once price has broken above it are the ones that will eat the bull trap. The second path I drew starts after some consolidation along the next descending resistance line. Notice these parallel dotted descending lines. I estimated the next one using Fibonacci. So the idea of the second dotted path is that price gets squeezed between the descending trend line and the ascending top of the broadening wedge. At that point, I know that I will be in so much doubt whether price will plunge downwards from that squeeze or explore upwards. We'll just have to keep collecting clues to favor one bet over the other. The target of both paths is the bottom of the broadening wedge. In my estimation, if this correction happens, this will be the bottommost point for TSLA onwards. For the stop loss, you will have to keep watching this idea as I update it, because I can't decide a stop loss yet; except I would loosely say it's the descending trend line that price action will decide. We have to wait and see a bearish reversal signal such as a shooting star candle or a higher high in price coinciding with a lower high in RSI. In conclusion, I have to make clear a few points: I would never recommend shorting TSLA. TSLA has much much more room to the upside than it has to the downside. TSLA is much much more likely to see $2000 from here than it is to see $400. So shorting is a BAD idea. This is merely a warning with the goal that you make sure you are not too leveraged, that you prepare mentally before a correction happens, that you do not panic if it does happen, and that you prepare to add to your position at the bottom. TSLA is a long term investment for the coming decade. It is not a trade. This is one of those calls that I'm only publishing for fun and learning, and to entice thought and have some of your opinions. So please leave your opinion in the comments.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by TechNerdOmar
7
Bitcoin long waitHere we have BTC again, this time we are looking at her over the last 3 months. Listening to Bull Trap while smoking an e-ciggy. As you may know she twisted her ankle while climbing just before the New Year, and she has been waiting for new (EMA 200) parts since then, so no climbing for a while said the mechanic, wait for the parts arrive. The problem is, the parts are in Whales, and they like to take their time over there. "Alrigh, it’ll be there now, in a minute" they said She has been pretty bored since, to get by she has been playing video games, "Mount GOX climbing" and "Elliot Waves Surf" as well, she got pretty good at it, but is not the same. Another thing she has been up to is eating wedges and watching tons of movies too, The Bear, Death Cross and Batman.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by Bitconiano
53
BTC MASS PSYCHOLOGY IMPENDINGBTC has broken out of the 14k strong resistance with a nice impulse on the LTF view, but on a close analysis on the HTF, we can see that BTC broke this resistance correctively. This might therefore trap a lot of traders for the impending short especially traders who trade based on support and resistance. BTC from a closer look might not break past the present zone and might therefore go down to the 12800 zone. Whatever it does there would determine if it would go lower or retest the present region. Please I am not a financial advisor. I am just thinking out loud. Feel free to comment and like if it goes accordingly. Also, remember to check out my previous ideas. Thanks.
Short
by tigarichie
3
Suncor - A Tale of Two TrapsFor 20 years, the market has never had anything but dips to buy. Even the 2008 "Financial Crisis" was just a dip to buy. Even the March illusion of a pandemic was just a dip to buy. However, a pendulum always swings from one side to another. What throws people off and makes trading so difficult is that you can know: Where the market is going What direction the market is going But what you don't know is when the market is going to do it. Only the makers know that, and that's why they're rich and retail is not. But, one thing you should be clear on is that this is the end of the line and the party is over. The world is not in good shape. Trouble is only just beginning, and it won't be a brief flash in the pan this time. The presence of a huge number of people practicing socialism (Communism) all over North America, and the world, has already shown itself to be a huge problem to the future of this world, and is about to show its economic consequences. After all, the biggest players can trade short and make even more money than they do during bull runs, while everyone's portfolio, 401K, and life savings gets wiped out. The ultimate purpose is to cause people to capitulate their holdings at the bottom, actualizing huge losses that cannot be regained. Once you're poor, you're easy to buy off. Once you're poor, people will do anything, including betray their friends, family, and country. In all the other areas of the world where poverty is common, prostitution, arms, and drugs all become booming industries. What else are people going to do when they need to eat? That is, unfortunately, the endgame for the human race. But before all good guillotines drop, you must raise the blade high into the air so it can fall in dramatic fashion. That is what our good friend Suncor is about to do, and likely WTI Crude Oil along the way. So, this is a long trade, but it is a scalp. This isn't for you to pack a bag for your portfolio thinking that you're going to see a new all time high in 12 or 24 months. People are no longer allowed to live like human beings, which means travel has been destroyed, which means the energy industry is in big trouble. After it is complete, take your profit and stay cash heavy. Consider getting out of the market and buy yourself something nice. Spend some time with your family. Maybe take up meditation or spiritual practice. When the rivers of blood begin to show themselves in the streets, wait a few months before you start buying. Every rally will be for suckers and the pullback will be in the 80% range on all asset classes. Perhaps gold and silver will be the only exceptions, in the end.
TSX:SULong
by LordWrymouth
25
Bulls Will Rush In This Week, But Don't Be FooledBased on the last projection, Intermediate wave 4 should be over. The losses of the past week did move into my projected bottom. However, it does not appear a full 3 wave (ABC) cycle occurred. It only looks like the A wave is now complete. I have adjusted my model to account for this and the projections of the next movements are below. I expect gains most or all of this week and more declines through mid to the end of next week. The bottom should occur around next Friday or the final Monday in September. What wave A did: It lasted 40 trading hours (6 trading days) and dropped 277.64. The rise over run of this was a loss of approximately 6.941 points per hour. Wave A tends to make up 39% on average of the larger wave (Intermediate wave 4 in this instance) it makes up. This means Intermediate wave 4 could last around 101 trading hours. Likewise, wave A tends to move 74.6% of Intermediate wave 4’s total move. This means Intermediate wave 4 could drop 372.17 points from top to bottom. This does not mean a straight drop, which will be further illustrated with this week’s projected gains and wave B. Wave B Length In determining how far wave B will move, I have looked at how all B waves for the S&P 500’s Grand Supercycle wave 1 has moved over its 85+ year history. I have used multiple estimations and calculates to narrow down B’s length. B waves tend to last 75% the length of their A counterpart. This means B could last around 30 hours. A waves tend to last 1.32 times the length of B waves. This means B could last around 30.3 hours. Also, A’s makeup of the larger wave is 1.54 times that of wave B. With wave A projected to makeup 39% of the move, this could have wave B last 29.5% of the overall move which equally equates to 29.8 hours. Finally, B waves tend to make up around 25% of the larger wave’s movement. If A is now projected to last around 101 hours. Wave B could last around 25 hours. Based on all of these estimations, I am forecasting Wave B to last around 29-30 hours. This will have it peak around the afternoon on September 17. Wave B Point Move B waves tend to retrace about 60% of wave A’s movement. This could see B rise about 166 points. A’s move tends to be 1.635 times larger than wave B. This could see B gain 169 points total. Wave A’s contribution to the overall larger wave’s (Intermediate wave 4) is typically 1.68 times larger than wave B. If A tends to rise 74.6% of this overall movement (currently projected to be 372.17), then B could makeup 44.4% of the larger wave’s movement which means B could rise 165 points . Separately, Wave B tends to makeup 44% of the larger wave’s movement which is very much inline with the last data point. This could see wave B last 163 points. Finally, on average, wave A’s rise over run is roughly equal (1.00000) to that of wave B. This could mean wave B rises 6.941 points per hour over the course of its length. This does not mean it will rise 6.941 points perfectly ever hour without larger gains or losses in between. Due to my projection of wave B lasting around 29.5 hours and considering this rise over run data point, wave B could gain up to 204.7595 points. The range of potential movement for wave B was tight (163-169) before considering the rise over run data point. My projection for wave B’s peak is around 3477.97 (167.5 point gain). Wave C I will project wave C’s move and length based off of the finalized wave A data and projected wave B data. Wave B’s full data would be 29.5 hours long and 167.5 point gain. This projection would be a rise over run of 5.678 points per hour. Wave B hypothetically lasted 73.75% of wave A’s length (40 hours) and retraced 60.32% of wave A’s movement (277.64). Wave C Length Wave C tends to last 37.02% of the larger wave length. If the larger wave is projected to last 101 hours, wave C would make up around 37 of those hours. Wave C tends to last 107% of wave A’s length. Wave C could last 42.8 hours. A tends to last 1.24 longer than wave C. Wave C could last 32 hours. A’s percentage of the larger wave’s length tends to be around 0.86 of that of C. If A is around 39% of the total length, C would be around 45.34% or last 45.8 hours. Wave B’s length is typically 0.62 times the length of wave C. Wave C could last 47.5 hours. B’s retracement of A’s length is 0.53 times that of C. This could mean wave C extends 139.15% of wave A’s length or last 55.7 hours. B’s portion of the larger wave is typically 0.53 times the size of C’s contribution. This means wave C could make up 54.71% of the larger wave or last 55.3 hours. Considering all of these data points. I currently forecast wave C last approximately 44.5 hours to end around the morning of September 28, 2020. Wave C Point Move Wave C tends to makeup 68% of the larger wave’s movement. If the larger wave meets the forecast of 372.17, wave C could drop 253 points. Wave C typically extends Wave A’s movement by 138.2% (ironically a key Fibonacci number) which would be a 383 point drop. Wave A tends to move 0.85 times that of wave C equating to a 326.635 point drop. Wave A’s portion of the larger wave tends to be 0.92 of C which would make C 81.08% of the larger wave’s move equaling 301.75 points. Wave B tends to move 0.47 that of wave C which would be a wave C drop of 356.38 points. B’s retracement of wave A in relation to C’s extension of wave A is 0.33. This could see C extend 182.79% of wave A’s move or a drop of 507.5 points. Wave B’s move % of the larger wave is typically 0.51 times that of wave C. This could mean wave C makes up 86.27% of the Intermediate wave 4 drop or a wave C contribution of 321.07 points. Wave A’s rise/run is 0.91 times that of wave C. C’s rise/run could be 7.6274 point loss per hour. At 44.5 hours, wave C could drop 335.61 points. Wave B’s rise/run is 1.05 times that of C. C’s rise/run could be 5.4076 points lost per hour equating to a total drop of 243.68 points. The chance of calculating total wave C point loss before the conclusion of wave B is a very rough estimation. This projection will likely be much more refined when I write next weekend. For now, I project C to drop around 350-383 points which is around 3110. Conclusion All told, I have provided windows and estimates for tops and bottoms for waves B and C. I am bullish until early 2022 and still foresee a steady 4-6 month drop beginning around the end of October early November. I would assess this has something to do with the U.S. election results or lack thereof due to ‘vote counting complications.’
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
17
I am financially ruined. SELL CHAINLINK BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE!oh linkies! the conference today revealed to the world the fat russian that runs this scam. price has already tanked ten percent. once it breaks through the five dollar resistance the panic will begin and small holders and speculators will begin to offload, with the whales already long gone. once it shoots through the 2.5 mark, unabated fear will ripe through all linkies, with all those who dumped their current accounts into this scam twitching their fingers continuously while refreshing binance. the 0.5 mark will be met, the largest panic in history will ensue. the final deluded nodes will begin to go offline, and wagecuckers with their engineering salaries loaded up in link will be left with it stuck in their wallet, unable to move it to binance to salvage some self-respect. the price will tank at this point to sub 0.5, and most probably sub i.c.o. levels. from that day forward the stinky linkie wagecucking nerds who bought this coin thinking it had fundamentals will go back to their jobs, with no money in their current accounts, to be made redundant by the next wave of pajeets arriving to undercut their wages. stinky linkies will hold bags forever, with no job, no money, and no crypto. i warned you linkies. there’s still time to get out. sell now. don’t be stinky, don’t be a linkie. www.youtube.com
Short
by GregTheSpider69
BTC/USD - STRONG BULLTRAP FRACTAL SIGNAL | WEAK VOLUME / FAKEOUTBitcoin Is Showing Many Similarities Compared To Behaviour In Late 2018: Price consolidation for over 70 Days RSI consolidation for over 70 Days Weak/Low volume pump up for a few days Followed by a deep crash by over 50% Bitcoin Here In Mid-2020 Is Showing Very Similar Behaviour: Price consolidation for over 70 Days RSI consolidation for over 70 Days Weak/Low volume pump up for a few days If this fractal were too playout, a deep crash is expected very soon, confirming the play-out of a bull-trap. Price has yet to make a higher-high, ~$10,500, and this may be another weak, unsuccessful attempt at doing so. Late 2018: Mid 2020: VERDICT: Based on the vast array of similarities of the current price behaviour compared to late 2018's behaviour, I believe the recent price pump is a bull-trap and I expect a deep crash very soon.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by JayanVarsani
8