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Bulltrap

Why I exited my remaining equity positions todayBull-market pricing in a bear market The S&P 500 is currently priced like we're still in the 10-year bear market. We're well above the 10-year upward-sloping trend line, and we also ended today right on top of the 50-month moving average. We're also well above the 2019 lows. This probably isn't sustainable, however, because just about all the analysts agree that we're in a recession. Why is the market rallying so strongly? The market is rallying because the government's measures to stave off a financial crisis have been truly legendary. Worried about corporate debt? The Fed has pumped trillions of dollars in loans into the financial system so companies can pay their old debts with new debt. Worried about household mortgages? Many people who lost their jobs will make more money on unemployment, thanks to Congress's stimulus package. Worried about commercial mortgages? Small businesses get free money to pay their rent, and banks are giving out rent holidays. Worried that business closures might last too long? Trump has promised to lift lockdowns by Easter. In short, the efforts to keep the debt bubble from popping have been so Herculean that at this point it's hard to see how they could fail. It's like that scene in The Big Short when the shorters realize they've "bought into a rigged game," and CDOs might not be allowed to fail. Only the efforts to keep debt from failing this time around have been far larger and have come far faster than in 2008. The US government may have been a month too late to contain coronavirus, but they acted a lot faster to contain the failure of bad loans. In many ways, the market rally is justified. Can the rally continue? In my opinion, this rally has played itself out. There remain at least a few important sources of risk that make a surge past the 50-month MA unwarranted. 1) Oil prices may collapse to $10 per barrel as storage space runs out. 2) State governors may not play ball with Trump's plan to end quarantines early. 3) Dividend cuts and suspensions may change the value proposition on many equities. 4) Earnings may continue to be revised downward, especially for banks that are giving loan payment holidays. 5) Even if the US ends quarantines early, quarantines abroad may prove a continued drag on the global economy.
SP:SPX
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
57
Sequential Bottom. Death cross-50,200 day MA. Retest Imminent What most people are overlooking is the 2011 market decline. I think we're going to see a sequential bottom with an undercut of the prior low. It happened in 1974 in which there was an Oct. low with a subsequent Dec. low. It happened in 1980 with the bunker hunt decline, in 2001, in 2008-9. Point is we historically have had secondary tests. This death cross of the short term MA crossing through the 200 is signaling an imminent retest. So, it would make sense for the sell-off to occur this week because I think we're yet to see major equity selling during this Quarter-end pension fund rebalancing.
AMEX:SPYShort
by TheMandalorian27
11
Can we continue the actual bitcoin run?Hey Altsignals Members, as update for the last swing trade in our BitMex channel and public one, we need to make some quick and small updates. 1/ Price perfectly bounce around our entry zone and 0.5 fibonacci level. 2/ We're above 400% profits if u take an entry below the 8600 level (Signal was sent at 8540) 3/ On the hourly chart we're trying to break a parallel resistance, which is around 8930$. Only after break and create candles above the 8900 level in the hourly chart, we will see a bullish continuation. So, keep your eyes open for a possible rejection of the current level, which could be the start for a ride into the 7200 & 7500 zone. ATM we stay bullish taking adventage from our perfect entry. Currrent Stop loss at TP1 ($8650) Current support at $8850 Current resistance and possible breakout point in short term, above 8950 and 9050.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by Altsignals
Higher highs? BULLTRAP? Golden crosses!Hey there, so this is a pretty important post right here. Leave a like, commend and share this post! Also follow me, if you don't want to miss out! As many of you migh already know, we had the cross (golden cross) of the 200 and 50 MA on the daily chart coming and it happened today. More or less surprisingly, we saw the price ralley strongly to the upside. We are now again above 10K and are getting a bit overbought on the smaller timeframes, but nothing too scary. The golden crosses of the 50/200 and 100/200 have been very bullish signals for Bitcoins price in the past, and could play an important role in the future. Price rallyed significantly from these golden crosses. These signals are though of even more important value, if both moving averages are heading into the same direction (up or down) while they are crossing. Only then is a true bullish signal given, imo. The bull flags on the daily also where very nice buying areas and still seem to be. There is though still the posibilty for this second ralley over 10K to be a bulltrap and to trap all the bulls, thinking Bitcoin is going to 12K. A breach above the last high and a further sharp 10% drop could signals a bulltrap and would be a concerning factor to me. So keep your eyes and minds open! Definitely follow me on social media and especially my YouTube channel: YT: Enlightened Trading Instagram: enlightened_trading_ Cheers, Konrad
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by EnlightenedTrading
BTC Giant bull trapTo me 3 things are obvious: 1. The latest BTC spike is abnormal. It occurred for no apparent reason and coincided with bitfinex maintenance. 2. The spike came at a time when bulls are losing steam and someone could argue that it looks like a BIG FLASHING NEON SIGN urging them to re-enter the race. 3. Nothing defies nature's laws, and what goes up will come down. Conclusion: "What you don't know, won't hurt you, it'll kill you. Like if they tell you you're going to shower but they turn out not to be showers." and since it seems that I do not know a lot about the recent events I decide to stay out of the market until things start to make any sense.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by fpunx
11
Possibly the most important weekly close in BTC historyThis is the superbowl for bitcoin. Will it close in the Weekly cloud @ ~8500? Will the TD Sequential close with a green 2 well above a green 1? Will the price find support on the .5 Fib line also right at ~8500? Will the price close above the downtrend line created by the wicks from 13.8k and 10.5k? In my opinion, the Bulls executed this move too early -- they are now tasked with maintaining momentum for 5+ days, which I think will become increasingly harder unless they can continue to push it up. Something like this would have been much better to do closer to the weekend, to give the bears less time to react. I suspect this weekend will be a BATTLE, as the bears are just lying in wait, perhaps licking wounds but preparing, and will time a strike when nobody expects it coming, probably over the weekend. Everyone's been talking about a bulltrap for months and months, yet when it's finally potentially here -- everyone is calling for the moon, which is ironic. All eyes on 8500, should be fun.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by blockchaingetheworld
Confusing market? let me make it easy on you... bear power!Most of you who've been following my market weekly analysis (Also my fav' TF since it ignores all the news in the background) for the past few months know how I like chaotic messy rainbow colored charts ^_^ but also that I been super bearish since top to bottom =D I love to see many basic but important TA/PA elements on my charts and thus I have to break it into parts for you guys <3, so lets begin: 1. The big trend: - Main/noise - The main obvious trend is bearish, and thus the main focus should be on shorts at important resistance levels as this way you catch all/most of the really big moves.. I already seen many groups/socialPeople talking about that we hit bottom, sure rare few of them have some valid points but until there aren't confirmations for the bull run it is all just a guess which is followed by the noise of smaller TFs which is caused by corrections to the downtrend/bull traps/SLHunts.. these groups/people tend to say we bottomed on almost every rise we had so far, while ignoring the bigger picture.. - Fibunachi: I tend to say that a parabolic run should correct itself to around 0.7'-1' (3880-6k$) fib' levels, why? because fundamentally a parabolic run isn't healthy/natural growing market, it brings to much money without real worth and can be very aggressive when panic sells going out.. and sentimentally the buyers are very hesitating and aren't rushing in when a market is falling.. thus a parabolic correction will never be good correction at the regular 0.6', 0.5', 0.3' fib levels, it will be much more aggressive.. * bearish/correction? - parabolic runs from my perspective usually end up in bearish market, BUT! from my perspective this can also be defined as a 'more aggressive correction' with expected results... my main target is 5.5k and I do expect the price to stop somewhere between 5-5.5k (Very strong S/R zone for last and current parabolic), it dosn't mean we can't spike below that, but if we go below 3880k for more then a couple of days? then even I have no idea and can't expect where the market will stop.. - trend lines - Basic and yet the most important PA from my perspective... these are the guide lines to see how strong is the overall vibe/more of the market, this was also one of my main reasons to call the top on last parabolic run at around 15-20k, and this current parabolic run since 12-14k, notice how the market reacts when we go below a trend line that the bull run created, everytime we break a treanline its more likely to try and find support on the next one, I tend to think that for a new bull run to happen after a parabolic run then we need to reset that parabolic run, how we do that? by breaking all the trend lines which were created above the first one, thus I believe we will also break below the 5th trend line before we can really start the next bull run. - MAs - e21 was one of the final confirmations for this bear run, staying below e21+e50 is very bad and leads to very strong death cross (while both E's on down trend) which if will happen then expect a whole 6 months of bear run (which also fits to my idea about that we will start the bull run only 4-6 months after the halving)... - Ichinoku cloud - Tenken and Kinjun death crossed (on a down trend) which is another confirmations for the big bear trend also the Chinkou also went below the overall market movement which shows long term bear trend and I overall as I mentioned on my last updates that if we won't see any strong push up at the 16/12 above the cloud then continuation for a bear run is more likely under the cloud until we see any sort of recovery... - S/R zones - I showed here all the important S/R zones we need to deal with before next bull run, these zones are ideal to plan positions with market direction... If we enter below the red S/R again, it will turn to a very strong resistance and most likely push us to 6900 line, touching this line 4-5 (1-2 more to go) times will create a very strong move crush towards the next support zones.. 2. Pattern: - Falling wedge - Yep, falling wedge is a bullish reversal/continuation pattern, so in the end we should break it at some point (with confirmed volume, and confirmed new trend after the breakout), I suspect that the best area to do so is my target support area.. 3. Volume: - Volume - if we break the bearish trend line it must be confirmed with volume,we are getting close to breaking the descending volume activity... successful break should also be high enough above the the red volume candle. - OBV - or as I love to call it as volume buying power, should confirm next bull run, without it we will run breakouts without active fuel to push the price up and thus if we dont have enough then we won't hold higher interest price levels. - VPVR - showing that we are at good price interest area for liquidity, this actually a big confirmation for accumulation and very important for our next bull run. * Conclusion: It looks like we still 'might' have a strong manipulation push trend up (with PA rules) all the way to 7840 (e50 weekly + e21 3d), if we break these then the next target is 8230-8325 (e21 weekly + e50 3d), but do remember: this type of market movement is just a natural noise of correction/bullTrap/slHunts, and is there to divert your attention form the big picture, on a bearish market you which was forming since 12-14k which I warned about since then and which was confirmed by many aspects until now, you should focus on shorts at critical resistance areas, and even if your sl hits don't panic, just move your next position to the next resistance, this is how I always catch up all the main big moves, as simple as that... don't fall for this 'btc botomed' crap as long as it wasn't confirmed and proven otherwise, our main target should remain as 5-5.5k unless we really confirm the next bull run. my current laddering short positions are focused around 7535-7835 zone (sl: 7845), so if we come back to that area I might ladder more positions to my existing ones as well.. and another focus for me is to trade a breakdown point under 6880..
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by Hedgehog_king
3
EKOVEST, Strong Breakout Followed by 3 Black CrowsBias: Bullish. After a strong breakout on the 13th Dec 2019, the next 3 trading days saw the price experiencing retracement with 3 black crow candles formation. #bulltrap Stop-loss: 0.830 // This stop-loss point is really tight; please manage your risk expectations. Previous swing high and 50% price retracement zone. 1st target: 0.950 // Previous high as resistance. 2nd target: 1.09 // Fibonacci 1.618 extension . Gentle reminder: Plan the trade and trade the plan. Trade at your own risk. Peace out! Guys, if you like the idea, please "like" it, this will be the best thanks. If you have any questions or trading ideas, please post them in comments! Thank you for your support, we appreciate it.
ELong
by ShareWorldConsulting
Bitcoin : Shadow support and short term view.Hello all, welcome to the Saturday update of current bitcoin condition after yesterday's drop. Currently, After the drop we can see that the price is entering a shadow support (the yellow region). The shadow support itself is the area where the previous period's bull trap or the wick fishing region located. So, here is my view in the short term, we can see that the price has touched the yellow region and there is a possible consolidation to occur at this area. I do believe we can see the price to have 1 more drop to the next strong support which has confluence zone with the golden pocket region. After that, we can see the price to touch the previous broken support that is now acting as a resistance as well around $9000 region. From the daily perspective region, we can see that the MACD histogram is having the first ticking down to the negative side and the bearish action has completed with the confirmation of the death cross on moving average in the MACD. However, $8500 will become a very strong support and there is a very good region to accumulate the long order.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by julio24albert
Gold Buy | Bull Trap and Stop Loss HuntingHello Traders, Here's my analysis on Gold daily chart. This bull trap and then pullback to stop runs (stop loss hunting) have resulted in very good trading opportunities with Gold. The psychology behind these moves are basically that traders see a breakout and enter trades but then price makes a pullback/retracement to take out stops and then reverse and continue in the original breakout direction. You can always ask yourself – where are traders in pain? This can help a lot finding good trades. Instead of buying the breakout (buying high) these stop loss hunting entries will give you a much better entry point. The risk reward ratio RRR on these trades are very good. The trend is your friend, so buying low in these pennant chart patterns combined with the bull trap and stop loss hunting is a strategy that works. If it was helpful, I would appreciate you leaving a like and follow. Thanks! Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions. Best regards, Johan
TVC:GOLDLong
by tradingwalk
18