Bitcoin Capitulation Chart for Historical Record 2019When price makes contact with that brighter yellow ring we will be dropping to make new lows around 2k - 2.5k. I am expecting this will take place sometime between late July and early Sep 2019.
Bulltrap
EURAUD possible short strategy 4HThe EURAUD made a bull trap and might after breaking the support line which is close to the 50% fibonacci level. A break of this level gives room for price to go to the (blue) support zone which is at the 78% fibonacci level.
BTC Bearish Clues : Bearish Bat Pattern and Falling Wedge StopIn the begin of this week, the consensus of technical analyst was clearly the following one : Bitcoin is going to sink again !
Not considering if Bitcoin is a good asset to invest in the long term or not, the doji formed on a weekly chart by end of May was a clear bearish sign and many analysts were surprised when the falling wedge has been broken on June, 10th by high buying volumes.
More than that, these last 2 days BTC broke up a rising wedge, canceling the head and shoulder pattern many people were anticipating.
Since then, the consensus changed and we can observe everyone is very bullish on the most famous crypto asset.
Nevertheless, I think this is a good time to highlight things I have not read yet.
First of all, we cannot consider BTC is back before it makes a higher high (higher than 9108$ of May, 30th).
Secondly, as you can see on the graph, a perfect bearish bat pattern (XABCD) has been formed today.
Even if this harmonic pattern is consider as the most reliable one, I can understand that this is not enough to conclude that BTC will not go higher tomorrow.
But there are other signs that show BTC weakness in the coming days.
And we come to our third (an maybe strongest) clue : the point D that confirm the pattern formation combine exactly with the extended line that goes by the all time high of BTCUSD and the recent 9100$ level we have seen. This is not visible on this chart, but you can try to draw the extended line going through these 2 points, and you will find out that we are exactly there now.
Finally, there is an RSI divergence (as you can see on the bottom indicator). This divergence is also visible on a daily chart.
Following these observations, I conclude that BTC will not go higher now .
First target is point B of the bat pattern (between 8000 and 8100$).
Second target is point C of the bat pattern (around 7500$).
Stop loss can be set above 9100$ level.
If BTC goes higher than that level and can consolidate there, all these analysis is wrong, and something else is probably happening).
Hope you will enjoy it, and that it can help some (lost) people.
Cheers,
Saint.
June critical supports about to give way (MONTHLY VIEW)?using the monthly 20 MA or weekly 100 MA (~equivalent), we can watch to see where markets unfold.
Prepare to short the breakdown and take profits quick, the re-short at bull trap retest of the MA breakdown.
ONEUSDT over exhurbance market playnot gonna say much think the market is heading down but slowly entering a scalp trade on this bullish setup stop very tight
this has the vol to have some nice trades today but think you will eventually see at least 220sat again most likely much lower as the people who will accumulate this will not accumulate at this level so investors beware
BTC, what do I know?This "bull run" (laughs) is a complete fabrication fueled by manipulation.
The top is most likely in, and it's all downhill from here. Bulls are in a state of elation and it's time for "them" to pull the rug. There will be a series of bulltraps as we fall down, with less and less strength as bulltards lag behind trying to long the "dips" until the reality of the situation sets in.
First target is 7k
Second is 6.3k
Third is 5.7k
NOTES
- Breakouts from the bounces from each of those levels is possible.
- Third level very well might not hold as sentiment will be heavily damaged by then
- We could be back in the 3-4k region by August
"They" will be laughing their asses off and reminiscing the execution of the biggest bulltrap in history.
This entire idea invalidates with a close above $8.7k, and the scam bullrun probably continues in that case.
NVT Structure In BITCOIN Cycles: Incoming BullrunHello guys,
at what stage of the cycle are we?
let's look at the NVT indicator.
I calculated the price and time peak price using a mathematical calculation based on previous peaks.
What you think about it?
Sry for bad English :D
Thank you.
BTC bullish short term scenarioThe next correction will be important, as it decides whether or not we're in a bull market by definition (higher lows + higher highs). I see a healthy correction in the low to mid 6000s, consolidation / triangle and further work on the next leg up as a valid scenario.
Fomo/Manipulation Fake Out? Lower highs, Lower lowsHey dudes!
I can't help but look at it in the bigger picture.
I agree since our last low in December that it has been looking bullish but overall I still see lower highs and lower lows.
If the Bull run has started wouldn't it be confirmed by getting a new high ABOVE $7,300 which was in theory the last high we have had. And after closing above $7,300 we would need a new low ABOVE the previous low of $3,100.
NVT over bought
RSI over bought
Fear and Greed index: Extreme Greed
Congressman talks of bitcoin Ban
Tether and Bitfinex Scandal
Binance Hack
Yet price is pumping through resistance like it's nothing.
Is this just a big fake out being fueled by whales, tether/bitfinex and ignorant moon boys?
Is it being fueled and pumped to soon come crashing down with the strength of a thousand suns to wreck havoc once Tether goes down?
Or has the bull run genuinely started and we are off to the moon?
Bitcoin's Final Bottom using Fib Circles and a Schiff PitchforkThis is probably not popular opinion but not long now before bitcoin’s descent back to $4.2k before final capitulation. This is evident using a fib circle connecting the swing low for 2015 to the 2017 ATH and a Schiff Pitchfork connecting the 2013 swing high to the 2015 swing low up to the 2017 ATH, to give us the bigger picture. Then for a comparative view of the current bear market, add another fib circle connecting the 2013 swing high to the lows reached just before breaking out of the 1.618 fib circle ring and the break of market structure in 2014, and then another fib circle connecting the 2017 ATH to the lows reached just before breaking out of the 1.618 fib circle ring and the break of market structure in 2018.
Notice how price broke down from the median pitchfork channel support shortly after it broke out of the 2.618 fib circle ring, which resulted in the break of market structure and a 50% capitulation in both 2014 and in 2018, where recently price dropped to our next pitchfork support level at $3200. As you can see bitcoin found support at the same pitchfork support at the end of Jan 2019 before we had the current bull trap rally.
Imo we still have 1 more capitulation to go where we will eventually find the bottom pitchfork channel support.
In 2014, we had a 77% drop from the $680 high, which we reached before breaking market structure, to the 2015 swing low. Then shortly after breaking out of the 4.236 outer fib ring, we had our final bottoming descent.
In 2018, a 77% drop from the $8500 high, which we reached before breaking market structure, gives us a bottom support level of around $2-$2.5k, which lines up nicely with our bottom pitchfork channel support. We have also just broken out of the 4.236 outer fib ring, so I'm expecting our final bottoming descent to begin soon.
Once we have bottomed, I expect sideways consolidation until we break out from the larger 2.618 fib ring circle, where we should enter the next phase of the next bull cycle which will coincide with the 2020 bitcoin halving around May. Expecting a parabolic move to our $50k resistance once we break out of the larger outer 4.236 fib ring around July 2022.
Good luck and happy trading!
Bitcoin Bullish ProposalBitcoin Bullish Proposal
After the recent price action I've decided to re-evaluate my analysis. By using Andrews Pitchfork, I found a channel price seems to respect. Currently, price is showing a reaction to the median, so if your a bull, this might be something to keep an eye on. If price can break through the median, I believe it will go to the next major resistance at around $6100.
However!
This price action has verified some of my previous analyses.
I still think this is a false breakout. Price still needs to drop down to one of the MA's. Either the daily 200 or weekly 200. At which point it will consolidate and then finally gain enough momentum to rally into an official bull market.
Trading Bitcoin can be risky. The price channel above could be useful but I will leave that to your judgement whether it's trade-able. Personally, I am a long term holder. If you are a long term holder as well, don't let the recent price FOMO you into buying at the top. If you are too antsy, wait for it to come down to the lower part of the channel before you buy. Or wait until we come back to the lower MA's.
Bitcoin Bull Trap and Big Players Buying BTCThe Bitcoin bottom could be in but I don't think the big players are ready for the price to go higher.
Imagine you are a big player with a copious amount of capital and you want to put it in bitcoin before the next bull run. You know this next run will be a big one. Heck, it could be the mania phase of the actual bubble believed to be in 2017. You have a problem though, one that normal retail traders don't have. You can't just go in with one big order, or even a few, slightly smaller, big orders. If you did, you would quickly eat up all the supply and price would move away from you very fast. You have influence over the market with your amount of capital. So why pay a higher price, when you can get the best price? So you decide you will only buy when there is enough sellers to soak up your orders.
This is known as iceberg orders. I suggest you do a little research on them and Wyckoff theory to better understand it.
As the big players start to get in, they will have to get in at higher prices. The retail investors beginning to notice and the price drops stop going lower. Eventually, the sentiment shifts and there aren't enough sellers anymore. As a big player, this is a problem. You aren't finished buying and you're definitely not going to buy at a premium. Remember, as a big player you still have some influence over the market. So you decide to take a little profit and at the same time stop the price from going higher in hope it will fall back down to your buy zone, where all your iceberg orders are sitting. Your a smart big player. You know how the retail side likes to buy and sell. You know what indicators they look at, what patterns they watch for, and how irrationally they can react. You notice an opportunity to make some good profit. There's a "golden cross" setting up. There is a support area waiting to be broken. The RSI is sending signals. Let's trap the retail side! You decide to wait for the golden cross to happen and you flood the market with buy orders. This will make price spike. Everybody thinks it's about to go parabolic. FOMO (fear of missing out) kicks in and retail reacts and buys irrationally. Perfect time to sell your bags. Cha-ching. This may even be enough to send prices low enough to fill up your buy orders as well!
I believe this is the end of the bear market and big players are getting in position. Bitcoin has a lot of emotion behind it. Especially after the last bull run. This next one will be a mania. There is more awareness this time around and it will send bitcoin to the moon. Buying anywhere in this area is still good for the long haul, but if you have limited capital like me, maybe try to get the most bang for you buck and buy the dip.
Don't buy emotionally. Always do your own research and form your own ideas!!
If you are in it for the long term, having your own personal view and reasons will help your confidence when things don't go your way, and may help paint a picture you didn't see before.
Thanks for reading. Please click like if you enjoyed!
I would love to hear from you, leave a comment below on your thoughts.
I am always looking for other perspectives.
Short term price action in detailsOk here's what I think is going to happen. As you can see I drew a fibonacci from the start of this pump on 8th of February. BTC loves 618 fib retracements so in my opinion we gonna tank to 4150 right now (this will lower down RSI to a more healthy range), then it's gonna bounce back to 4650 or go slightly above it This will be the breaking point when everyone turns bullish again and will be screaming "bull run is over we're going up". For a short period of time it will stop at 3500 (200 weekly MA) and at the re-test of 3100 bottom. After another disappointment we will see a final capitulation down to 2700-2300 where my buy order is.
#ZILBTC #ZIL UPDATE DOWN TREND :(Zil is going to down slowly slowly i am so sorry
Please push the like button and follow me please. / Lutfen like butonuna basiniz ve takip ediniz.
AUDJPY Range Breakout May Be A FAKEOUT!
Look at the attached image where price is confined in a channel of a weekly chart. We can see the presence of the weekly 50 EMA which often acts as dynamic support and resistance in most cases. The price did breakout from the range but however it failed to close above weekly 50 EMA! The price is now headed back to test the range's resistance and most of the traders would think its a good opportunity to enter at this stage.
Well fundamentally its a good setup to enter as the trade deal is almost done which usually helps the AUD in this case however looking at the technical perspective we have to be concerned that the price has NOT yet closed above the weekly 50 EMA! so what can we do to trade this pair cautiously?
Well logically we should wait for the weekly candle to close above the weekly 50 EMA and go LONG from there with the upper end of the weekly channel as our primary target. As for now i want to see where the weekly candle closes and how does the price behave in the coming weeks before i take this pair LONG.
Hope you find this analysis useful, if you do please leave a LIKE and FOLLOW me if you want to receive future trade analysis. cheers and thanks
Bull Trap, Bear Trap, Impulse, Consolidation, BullrunMy scenario will celebrate the day after tomorrow its 6 months of existence.
It has been the subject of 16 publications, all of which have been verified to date.
To believe today that we have already entered a real bullrun would be to deny my scenario and these 16 "ideas" published (*).
(*) To be exact, there are 32 publications, because for each idea published in English, I published the same in French.
It is difficult not to FOMO on these "beautiful green" of April 2019, even for a regular.
The actors of the cryptos are "greedy" and euphoric on the social networks, which is obviously very communicative and tempting.
But I must act frankly with those who follow me: I sold all my cryptos the day before yesterday to BTC @ $ 5300.
And with a long reflection, where I re-husked, and re-checked all my scenario point by point, indicator by indicator,
here is a reminder of what I had planned for 2019, chronologically:
- A 1st Ultimate Dip close ~ $ 3k mid-December 2018, signing the end of the bearish retracement.
- An oscillating horizontal range 3000 ~ 6000 $ from mid-December 2018 to (approximately) September 2019.
- Range which therefore includes one or two Bull Trap between 5000 ~ 6000 $ between April and August 2019.
- A 2nd Ultimate Dip close ~ $ 3k in the summer of 2019, marking the end of the oscillatory horizontal range.
- A bullish impulse towards the month of September 2019 pushing the price above $ 6,000.
- An horizontal consolidation range around ~ $ 7000 from (approximately) October 2019 to February 2020.
- Entry into the real Bullrun in March 2020 (average impulse like 2016).
- Bullrun euphoric like 2017 from March 2021 (strong impulse).
The problem is that we would be today at the peak of a Bull Trap with the risk now of re-dropping to ~ $ 3k.
Shake out the weak handsDon't be a sheep and do the opposite of what everyone else are doing. HODL what you have and have some fiat aside in case the worst thing happens. This dump could be epic.
#ZILBTC #ZIL UPDATEPlease follow the triangle and big surprise is very soon :)
Please push the like button and follow me please
BITCOIN - One push to trap them all?This is what i think will happen, a possible pump to 5.6-5.8k to touch the weekly 50ema, then a bloody dump to 4.2k. we'll see.
BTCUSD: Yes, it's a bull trapIf my last 2014 vs. 2018 comparison didn't convince you of its predictive power, then by all means stay poor. For the rest of us, here's the play: we're going to retest the previous low in a few months then crawl out of that pit in Q4 as we bump against the long term support. Plan accordingly.
The game does not change and neither does human nature.
- Edwin Lefèvre
