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Bulltrap

Bitcoin: Comparison with 2015.. Are the bulls being trapped?Yesterday I made the case that presuming the end of the bear may be a bit premature. Comparing the weekly chart to the weekly chart of 2015 shows this as well. I'm comparing this weeks candle to the candle of the 29th of June. Now here is where I'm being a bit premature, as this weeks candle is still young and bitcoin being bitcoin could close anywhere between 0 and infinity. But for arguments sake, let's assume that this candle will close above 4600. Keep in mind that if this is not the case, everything I say from won't really be true anymore. The reason for comparing this weeks candle to that 2015 candle is that they are both the first candles to print a bullish level 2 signal (blue L2 on the chart). Comparing the candles, the current candle definitely looks more bullish, but also prints an exhaustion signal (red dot). This give me more reason to be cautious to the bullish side. The bullish L2 signal in 2015 resulted in a minor pullback to just below the ribbon. The ribbon then remained neutral (grey), and turned bullish (blue) after the indicator printed a second bullish L2 signal. That was the start of the next bull market (to me at least..) in 2015. I'm looking for something similar to happen this time: for the first bullish L2 signal to fail to turn the ribbon bullish and the market to pullback. To where? Well, I don't know. And nobody really does.. Will that pullback take us to new lows? Perhaps, and there are a number of cases to be made in its favour. The first and foremost is the amount of hope that the space still has. The catharsis this upmove caused is evident I think.. This does not mean we won't go higher, just that this hope (unfortunately) needs to be crushed before the bear is over. And this sets up for nasty bull traps.. Looking at 2015 you can see that trap laid out clearly, with a drop of about 33% after the first L2 signal printed. If it goes lower, how low will it go? Again, I don't know. I won't bore you with the obvious levels, truth is, it can spike anywhere between 3000 and 500, perhaps even lower. It may be the final axe coming down, and how much force that axe needs to break the hope is unclear. The only clear thing, I do not fancy being on the receiving side of that blade. Waiting it out here seems to be the wisest option.. Will this time be different? How many reasons can you think of why it will be different? How bad do you want it to be different? "Check yo'self, before you rek yo'self" a wise man once said...
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by DariusZen
Everyone is Comparing 2015 Fractal Incorrectly...Some of you listened when I called the crypto crash and BTC Drop from 6k down to 3k. Then I called the Stock Market Bounce 24 hours before it exploded up. I also called the exact bottom of BTC the day before (all related charts linked below for proof.) How did I do it? Combining the right factors of historical analysis, with current trends, including fundamentals and technicals. I believe to be an excellent trader - to use an artist analogy - you must understand all the tools and all the colors... so even if you paint a simple picture, you paint it well with no limitation or bias. Fundamentals When this drops, easy to blame latest hacks, SEC, justinsun, and whatever else stocks are busting through the ceiling again (blame institutions leaving) there is no real bullish indications -- only hope to this current move (bulltrap?) (reminiscent of Nov 2017) Technicals Current pop up above 20 EMA, squeezing between the 40 (blue circle) Double Bottom with Triple Top EMA 150 & 200 dropping while converging (orange circle) Volume on decline since the crash MACD floating higher than before the crash RSI over-bought is higher than RSI from before the crash preparing for a beautiful cup-and-handle formation takes time Don't paint me as a permabear. I remain unbiased and I called the latest Stock Market pump perfectly (look at the comments on that chart if you want to have a good laugh) I am long-term bullish and I know we are going up, but the timing must be right. Good luck! - you're welcome
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by racethehare
23
Everything under control. Was it trap? I warned!Come on. Everything under control. Broadening WEDGE enabled. It was a beautiful BULL TRAP coming out of a large Falling Wedge followed by a False BULL FLAG. Great move. Great trap. Bears are still in control, are not they? Take a look at my previous STUDIES and they will prove the armed farce. You were warned. I'M NOT TOP TRADINGVIEW I'm not a FAMOUS I do not want your MONEY I'm here to help you And in the end I'm the CRAZY! It was a BEAUTIFUL SHORT SQUEEZE
BITMEX:XBTShort
by f3rG0D
2
Short squeeze! Thank youWhat is a Short Squeeze A short squeeze is a situation in which a heavily shorted stock or commodity moves sharply higher, forcing more short sellers to close out their short positions and adding to the upward pressure on the stock. It implies that short sellers are being squeezed out of their short positions, usually at a loss, and is generally triggered by a positive development that suggests the stock may be embarking on a turnaround. Although the turnaround in the stock’s fortunes may only prove to be temporary, few short sellers can afford to risk runaway losses on their short positions and may prefer to close them out even if it means taking a substantial loss. I WARNED! SARDINES BOUGHT
BITMEX:XBT
by f3rG0D
UPDATE!!! BOTTOM NOT IN! Last pump to $4100 before BULLTRAP!Hello.. comparing BTC to the last bulltrap.. i can see again another Bulltrap forming. Reasons: Too much resistance on the upper side NVT still didnt show oversold market (i trust this indicator) Its too early for a bullmarket Lower lows means higher highs We are STILL in the big falling wedge (Which i will show in the comments) I expect the pump tomorrow. Price will propably fall down to $3915 and then pump to $4100 After that i expect a big rejection which will lead to a sell off!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by iBeardy
21
Bear trap before a dead cat bounce?Good day Traders Bitcoin has been battling with our DMA50 resistance, is now printing hidden bearish divergence on the daily, and we have potential for bearish DI cross looming. The recent short squeeze managed a 38.2 fib retracement after our drop from our 24 December swing high, so I have a 168.1 fib extension target of $2780 if we fail to get above DMA50. Although we had a strong volume candle on the squeeze, we lacked any volume follow-through for a continuation of a rally, and once we reached DMA50, our buying volume dropped off, unlike the build up of buying volume when we bounced from our December lows. A healthy rally would entail us taking the stairs up and elevator down but this was an elevator straight to our DMA50 resistance. We could potentially have a drop / bear trap from here, breaking below WMA200 to set new lows, invalidating the triangle from my previous chart and forming support of a large falling wedge, triggering stops just below $3k. Bitcoin should then have a dead cat bounce, first back above WMA200, then to wedge resistance, and then a breakout with a $4200-$4400 resistance target sometime towards the end of March / start of April. When btc reaches $4200, I suspect we'll encounter strong horizontal resistance as we have since we dropped below $4500 in November last year and we should meet our DMA100. Depending on the strength of trend and bottom-calling fomo, we should have a 38.2 fib retracement back to our 61.8 fib support, somewhere around $3670, which will give us 168.1 fib bull trap extension target of $5110 (to DMA200) once we break above that $4240 - $4480 and DMA100 resistance. If we have a deeper 50 fib retracement to $3500, I'll revise my bull trap target to $4770, which would be a 138.2 fib extension target. We should then potentially drop back to our $3k support, extending the bear market, with a move to new sub $2500 lows. Have a look at the NVT indicator which gives us a network value to transactions ratio and has been quite accurate so far on the daily chart for predicting the bottom/top. You'll see that we're in a great buy area on the weekly chart (flashes green for buy red for sell), but we still haven't bottomed yet on the daily chart, and you'll see that there was only 1 day where it flashed green in 2015 and that was during capitulation. Previous chart and potential to new lows from here: Scenario where we've already bottomed: Another bearish scenario:
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Corn_Reaper
3
Who is in control? I'm not kidding! I warned!Now give me hopeful people at BITCOIN. What is the main trend? What is the largest volume? Who's in charge of this game? What are the technical indications that the game has changed? People are full of hope in TOP TRADING VIEW, they are highly manipulative people. They need to live, they need to sell their expertise on their call. They live on it. They lie! Take your money and go buy knowledge, not SHITCOINS cheap service. This is not an investment. An investment in knowledge pays the best interest. Benjamin Franklin Buy books. This market is far from over. Stop fighting the trend. Is she your friend. Now go look at my studies. I'm not famous. I do not want your money I will not fool you Now go!
BITMEX:XBTShort
by f3rG0D
Bull Trap is comingCome on TOP TRADINGVIEW! I will help you. No, wait. Know how to read candles? Or do you copy ideas to sell your signals? Better start finding another service. This market is dead! Did you understand Without regulation no money will enter here! What is the 700 billionth of the marketcap? Where are they? Why did they run away? The bottom is farther than you can imagine. Better not post ideas like ZERO. Bitcoin goes from 0 USD and goes to 20k is this normal! Blockchain is revolutionary !!!!! LMAO! Now get out of 20 and go to 0 is crazy? OK!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by f3rG0D
1
Bitcoin Whales And Their Bots Controlling The MarketA few days ago i said i would make an educational analysis about that pattern i saw a few days, something i have seen many MANY times this year. Especially since May until September this year. What do we see here: After breakouts like we had a few days, where we see a squeeze up happen within 1 or 2 minutes, then we see a dump happen just as fast and usually around 50% of the up move. The most important factor, is the speed of the push down. These are bots in action because nobody can react that fast AND feel so confident to push the price down during a squeeze up, unless you know you have unlimited funds and volume to play with. The only time i know they failed, was in July, when the 6800 broke and we squeezed up to the 7.500. If you remember, i mentioned that several times, because since that moment, it took a while until they showed up again. There were around 200 mil contracts liquidated that day :) After the push down has been made, we usually see a small bear flag forming, like they are getting a feel of the buying pressure of the market before they start to make their second push down. A few days ago, the buy volume was probably still too strong to we tested the high again, something that didn't happen earlier this year. So there is a slight change in that pattern. Today's move, which i warned for yesterday was only a 30/40 point move up. But the push down fits the profile i described. And since we are at lower prices now, it might be fair to assume they are at it again. What and why do they do it. Why? They play games with over leveraged traders. We always get these obvious resistance or support levels. If it's a bull or bear flag or trend line breakouts. So many traders who are breakout traders go long at these highs while THEY have their short orders already in the book ready to get filled. Then they push the price down just as fast, putting these bulls under immediate pressure. They wait and see a bit how the rest of the market reacts, if they see buying volume dropping, they start to push the price down even more. Because they trapped these breakout traders, they use THEIR volume as their own, because as soon as these over leveraged traders start to get in a loosing position, they will cut their losses and start to sell as well (or get liquidated which has the same result). So creating volume (fuel) for these whales. And if the market is not strong enough to catch the volume of both of these sellers, we start to see those Bart moves and the market starts to drop again. You probably remember this chart i showed a week ago, before that move up happened and dropped again. This is a bigger version and a different pattern but it's the same tactic. In case you wondered how the hell did i know it would move like that, well know you have your answer :). Of course it is an assumption upfront and it's not that easy, but it does increase your odds in trading when your aware of these kind of things. If i get a big support for this educational analysis through likes, i will make a part 2 and will show you examples of these patterns. It takes me many hours to make these kind of educational posts, so i will only continue when i see enough people find it interesting. I also still have that long term (with log trend lines ) educational post, i am half way but still needs a lot to complete it. I might post that one as well in the near future. Maybe some will finally see and understand the false preferences most TA analysts tell you. Not on purpose, they simply don't know any better. Now i don't need to prove my right with this and i won't even try, it's up to you to make your own conclusion. But i think the fact 90% of retail traders looses money in the financial markets says more than enough. The chart is here below, probably finished but i might still adjust it a bit I can see only 1 solution for this manipulation, that is combining the volume of all exchanges in 1 order book. Because then they would much more volume to push the price around. Now they only need 1,2 or 3 exchanges and the rest will follow since there are so many bots reacting automatically. Combining all the volume , would make it MUCH more difficult to control. Not impossible, because the same manipulation happens on the normal markets as well. So in other words, the decentralization of crypto is actually biting it in it's own ass when you think about it. Very unfortunate, but it's the hard truth. Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :) Previous educational analysis:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by botje11
124
US 30 May Be Headed for a Very Unmerry XmasTwain observed in Pudd'nhead Wilson; "October. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February." How about a December crash? If this model plays out Santa will by cryin'. Notice rejection this week at TL. Downtrend continues. "Pie-in-the-sky" forecasts of Sand P 3000 and DowJonzed 30,000 are not likely at this juncture. Bull traps! Retracements have been between .382 - 0.50, notice the Fibo bars (note arrows). If we enjoy a similar pattern on the next bounce could climb back as high as 25,500 or turn back sooner at 24400. There's a short entry window 100 pips wide. If a five-wave complex down wave emerges the pattern could look like this projection, and a 4th wave might give another bounce before capitulation. Or not.. maybe it just breaks. There seems to be no bottom in this market, every day is a chance for 600-800 pip selloff. It's getting closer to real panic in my humble opine. One day soon will go off 2K... GLTA This ain't advice, it's just a funny looking chart with mostly random squiggles, they probably have no meaning, invest at your own risk!
DJ:DJIShort
by DaddySawbucks
1
[b]Bitcoin - It's just a correction, don't get fooled ![/b]** IT'S NOT AN OPPORTUNITY TO BUY YET !!!! Price is moving in 5 ways to the downside since the selloff from 6000 Wave 1,3 & 5 will go lower where as waves 2 & 4 will go counter trend and correct a % of the previous move. Wave 3 is often the extended wave, meaning it's the longest and you should be able to count 5 subwaves inside it. Once those 5 waves end, we get wave 3, after wich comes a correction higher in wave 4 in a 3 waves manner(abc for example) or a more complexe correction(but still just a correction !). I'm confident we have those 5 waves down as a wave (3), now price is therefore in a correction higher for wave (4). After wave (4) ends (should be near 0.382 level ~4500 ideally), look for price to fall a bit further for wave (5) near the 3100 level (or possibly lower)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by ElliottWaveBelgium
Want sub $3k? Build a Bull Trap to $8kIf you want to play with the big dogs, you have to bark like one. Everyone is waiting for lower prices. When the retail traders see the discounts slipping away, they will quickly start piling on the market buy orders. Our trend will then create the feel of a false downward breakout of the large yearly descending triangle (in green), and create the illusion of a new bull market. Don't get caught in the trap. HODL until $8k, then take your profits, or someone else will take them for you. The bubble will pop, just not yet, so be patient. -racethehair
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by racethehare