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Bulltrap

Bitcoin Whales And Their Bots Controlling The MarketA few days ago i said i would make an educational analysis about that pattern i saw a few days, something i have seen many MANY times this year. Especially since May until September this year. What do we see here: After breakouts like we had a few days, where we see a squeeze up happen within 1 or 2 minutes, then we see a dump happen just as fast and usually around 50% of the up move. The most important factor, is the speed of the push down. These are bots in action because nobody can react that fast AND feel so confident to push the price down during a squeeze up, unless you know you have unlimited funds and volume to play with. The only time i know they failed, was in July, when the 6800 broke and we squeezed up to the 7.500. If you remember, i mentioned that several times, because since that moment, it took a while until they showed up again. There were around 200 mil contracts liquidated that day :) After the push down has been made, we usually see a small bear flag forming, like they are getting a feel of the buying pressure of the market before they start to make their second push down. A few days ago, the buy volume was probably still too strong to we tested the high again, something that didn't happen earlier this year. So there is a slight change in that pattern. Today's move, which i warned for yesterday was only a 30/40 point move up. But the push down fits the profile i described. And since we are at lower prices now, it might be fair to assume they are at it again. What and why do they do it. Why? They play games with over leveraged traders. We always get these obvious resistance or support levels. If it's a bull or bear flag or trend line breakouts. So many traders who are breakout traders go long at these highs while THEY have their short orders already in the book ready to get filled. Then they push the price down just as fast, putting these bulls under immediate pressure. They wait and see a bit how the rest of the market reacts, if they see buying volume dropping, they start to push the price down even more. Because they trapped these breakout traders, they use THEIR volume as their own, because as soon as these over leveraged traders start to get in a loosing position, they will cut their losses and start to sell as well (or get liquidated which has the same result). So creating volume (fuel) for these whales. And if the market is not strong enough to catch the volume of both of these sellers, we start to see those Bart moves and the market starts to drop again. You probably remember this chart i showed a week ago, before that move up happened and dropped again. This is a bigger version and a different pattern but it's the same tactic. In case you wondered how the hell did i know it would move like that, well know you have your answer :). Of course it is an assumption upfront and it's not that easy, but it does increase your odds in trading when your aware of these kind of things. If i get a big support for this educational analysis through likes, i will make a part 2 and will show you examples of these patterns. It takes me many hours to make these kind of educational posts, so i will only continue when i see enough people find it interesting. I also still have that long term (with log trend lines ) educational post, i am half way but still needs a lot to complete it. I might post that one as well in the near future. Maybe some will finally see and understand the false preferences most TA analysts tell you. Not on purpose, they simply don't know any better. Now i don't need to prove my right with this and i won't even try, it's up to you to make your own conclusion. But i think the fact 90% of retail traders looses money in the financial markets says more than enough. The chart is here below, probably finished but i might still adjust it a bit I can see only 1 solution for this manipulation, that is combining the volume of all exchanges in 1 order book. Because then they would much more volume to push the price around. Now they only need 1,2 or 3 exchanges and the rest will follow since there are so many bots reacting automatically. Combining all the volume , would make it MUCH more difficult to control. Not impossible, because the same manipulation happens on the normal markets as well. So in other words, the decentralization of crypto is actually biting it in it's own ass when you think about it. Very unfortunate, but it's the hard truth. Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :) Previous educational analysis:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by botje11
124
US 30 May Be Headed for a Very Unmerry XmasTwain observed in Pudd'nhead Wilson; "October. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February." How about a December crash? If this model plays out Santa will by cryin'. Notice rejection this week at TL. Downtrend continues. "Pie-in-the-sky" forecasts of Sand P 3000 and DowJonzed 30,000 are not likely at this juncture. Bull traps! Retracements have been between .382 - 0.50, notice the Fibo bars (note arrows). If we enjoy a similar pattern on the next bounce could climb back as high as 25,500 or turn back sooner at 24400. There's a short entry window 100 pips wide. If a five-wave complex down wave emerges the pattern could look like this projection, and a 4th wave might give another bounce before capitulation. Or not.. maybe it just breaks. There seems to be no bottom in this market, every day is a chance for 600-800 pip selloff. It's getting closer to real panic in my humble opine. One day soon will go off 2K... GLTA This ain't advice, it's just a funny looking chart with mostly random squiggles, they probably have no meaning, invest at your own risk!
DJ:DJIShort
by DaddySawbucks
1
[b]Bitcoin - It's just a correction, don't get fooled ![/b]** IT'S NOT AN OPPORTUNITY TO BUY YET !!!! Price is moving in 5 ways to the downside since the selloff from 6000 Wave 1,3 & 5 will go lower where as waves 2 & 4 will go counter trend and correct a % of the previous move. Wave 3 is often the extended wave, meaning it's the longest and you should be able to count 5 subwaves inside it. Once those 5 waves end, we get wave 3, after wich comes a correction higher in wave 4 in a 3 waves manner(abc for example) or a more complexe correction(but still just a correction !). I'm confident we have those 5 waves down as a wave (3), now price is therefore in a correction higher for wave (4). After wave (4) ends (should be near 0.382 level ~4500 ideally), look for price to fall a bit further for wave (5) near the 3100 level (or possibly lower)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by ElliottWaveBelgium
Want sub $3k? Build a Bull Trap to $8kIf you want to play with the big dogs, you have to bark like one. Everyone is waiting for lower prices. When the retail traders see the discounts slipping away, they will quickly start piling on the market buy orders. Our trend will then create the feel of a false downward breakout of the large yearly descending triangle (in green), and create the illusion of a new bull market. Don't get caught in the trap. HODL until $8k, then take your profits, or someone else will take them for you. The bubble will pop, just not yet, so be patient. -racethehair
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by racethehare
Micro Bull / Macro BearCreating a bulltrap is the best way to take BTC lower. Our ultimate trap would be high of $8k on this run, and just as quickly as it went up, bag holders and FOLOs (fear of losing out) will ultimately sell to sub $3k. Alts will make 3x - 5x more gains during this final uptrend. But the bubble has to burst. What better way than to build the final bull trap for all the retail traders. Don't fall in the trap. HODL your bags until $8k (end of Dec/beginning of Jan) and take your profit, or someone else will take it for you. -racethehair
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by racethehare
Traps and TargetsBeen very busy and its been a while since I posted. Apologies for that and thanks to all of you who keep up the good work. In two minds here, which is a typical predicament with trading. The 15th October spike that popped through the top of the long term triangle has been seen by some as a bear flag, and I can see their point, but for me there is more compelling evidence for a bull run. In the immediate future my thoughts are... Currently BTC is looking to pull back before the next push. However there is a lot of pushing going on and the pull back is struggling to get a foot hold, so we keep getting sideways movement. As a result I foresee a small upward movement above the very recent resistance triggering a small sell-off (Bull Trap). This will then drop down to the support, the 'RSI 1Hr will hit oversold and bounce up to higher resistance levels (Bear trap). 'BTC will break out of the long term triangle and the 4Hr RSI move into overbought territory also. How high it will go I am not sure, but will certainly be keeping a close eye on it. This is all my opinion and its probably wrong ;)
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by reppac
1
XRP Bullish scenarioHi there, This is my vision on XRP if the bulls can overtake the bears in the coming weeks. On the daily XRP is forming a bull flag with an ascending triangle and it's been finding support on the 200 daily. If it is to break out we will probably go above the previous high. Now volume is important to give it momentum, xRapid adoption or speculation might cause this. Shorts are also picking up again so another short squeeze when we break resistance is also possible. There are some mixed signals at the moment, we also see a double top which makes this look a bit like a bull trap. There are points to be made on the bear and bull side. However oktober till december are historically good months for crypto so i'm leaning towards the long side here. XRP makes a lot of vertical moves so it is important to keep an eye on this if it breaks out so we don't miss the opportunity. We probably see this play out somewhere around the 15th. Comments, critics, and different ideas are most welcome. So if you don't agree with me please let me know, i'm always eager to learn.
Long
by Bittimmer
BTCUSD bulltrap idea Current short term situation looks like the bear flag has been invalidated. With a 1D close above and test of the top trend, it is a safe bet that BTC is going to take another leg up to $71XX or possibly even extend to $78XX. Alts should follow as long as BTC doesn't move too fast. However, we are still in a bear market so we must remain cautious. If my theory is correct, this will be a fake out to trap longs. Twitter sentiment has turned bullish, many people seem to believe the bottom is in so its possible this is just a bog. Not to mention we have the shorts that can fuel it, shorts closing will be another good psychological trap. Fake out to -> drop will be invalidated if BTC climbs above the top trend at $78XX and confirms support. ---------------------------- My position; ---------------------------- Entry : $6759 ( and below ) Target 1 : $7074 Target 2 : $7747 Stoploss : $6647 ( Also suggested to trail with stop loss once the move has begun ) ---------------------------- This is not financial advice, I am not your financial adviser. This is explicitly my own opinion and should not be treated otherwise.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by dalvinchi
1
Fake Volume on Bitcoin makes it a Bull Trap!A lot of altcoins are going up which is a good sign for the market to recover. We have got a lot of good news about Bitcoin these days but do not be FOMO. It only looks like another bull trap. Do not fall for it. The volume of Bitcoin is absolutely weak and does not show any sign of an upcoming bull market. We would better wait for better signs as Bitcoin is really struggling to get over 6,600 and seems to fall hard to around 5,200. If you have made some profit on altcoins now is the best time to sell it and find new buy opportunities in the future.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by exclusive_signals
2
WHITHER DJIA?! MOON SHOT OR FISH TANK!?! COMPARE TO MAY CHANNEL After Tuesday's short squeeze a lot of us got stopped out and irritated bears are wondering; "WTH is it DOING?!" After I calmed down a bit, licked my wounds and smoothed out my fur, took a hard look at the chart. Then shorted again today. Pattern now unfolding looks a heckofalot like May's behavior after the runup three months back. Now Tues looks like a BullTrap and yet another fakeout squeeze. Notice the same 'double-top' action, short-squeeze after first downtrend fakeout, then a descending triangle leading to the sheer drop. Significantly, May's pullback was 0.50 Fibo only and did not test the channel bottom. That came later, in the June Swoon. Elliot wave theory 'alternating wave hypothesis' suggests that a shallow wave is followed by a deep strong trough, in turn by a shallow wave. Maybe bullhockey, but after the strong cup-and-handle breakout in July I wouldn't bet on a really steep/deep decline. Could happen but...?! Possibly a .382 Fibo = 25020. Strong support now at the former resistance level could springboard the index up to next bullish impulse, note horizontal arrow > support tested, retested in cuphandle. If S1 breaks: S2 at 24844 (Fibo 0.50); S3 at 24668 (Fibo 0.618; tested in the cup); S4 at 24418 (Fibo 0.786, bottom of the cup), which lands squarely on the lower trendline. Notice: Height of triangle in May = depth of drop; if we get that again in August, Dow might retrace to 0.382 Fibo and bounce. Don't get squeezed- watch it real close... Also noteworthy: one page contributor has observed the market highs/lows have coincided with Moon phases - high 24585 was at Full Moon 07/26/18; look for a low around the New Moon on Friday, 10 August, eh?! Maybe silly but there it is... Test of bottom trendline would be a long drop, and seems unlikely now, but the damned thing has already done the impossible, so don't count it out. Other similarities suggesting imminent corrective wave: 'exhaustion gap' up on Tues followed by rapid retracement; a 'shooting star' Weds attempt to recover to Tues HOD but fell short at 25480, rejection leading to strong selloff end of day; low volume on up days, increasing volume on down days; RSI: Neutral. August is tied for weakest month of year with October. BUT August is also often a 'pivot month' in which the trend reverses. SO; whither Dow? Maybe a little off the top please, then resume the Moon shot... Good luck traders! > "Going to the Moon... after a brief detour through Pandemonium and Nether Regions"
DJ:DJIShort
by DaddySawbucks
Dow Double Top Signal: at or near pivot in reaction waveBestimate projection for Dow going into August, tied with October for weakest month of the year. Coming off a strong rally in July, odds favor more volatility. Dow appears to be in a corrective, reactionary wave cycle: 'A' wave from first top 07/26 ran down to the flash crash Thursday 08/02 (Label 'W' of WXY reaction). Notice labels for larger primary trend are ABCDE, so I used WXY for the reaction and 12345 for the minor wave cycles. B wave of surprising strength carried index up to the 0.786 Fibonacci retrace (label 'X'). A complete 5 wave impulse in this reaction wave is apparent (labeled; 2-hr chart). Dow banged on ceiling at 25500+ but pushed back, expect at least one retest. To continue the 3rd primary wave from here would require advance to higher high of > 25650 to meet top of rising channel; if index fails to retest channel, then this second high becomes part of a reactionary wave, rather than an actionary continuation of the primary. Expect C wave (Labeled 'Y') to be shallow (Elliott alternating principle); bullish exuberance returns to the markets, buying the dips is back in fashion. A .382 retrace would carry back to 24982; a 0.50 to 24794. A 0.618 to 24606 is quite possible, if anxiety returns to world markets. Time frame for wave C: 5-10 sessions. Very nice analysis at this link presenting two alternate ending plots: www.scienceinvesting.com Comments are welcome; Good luck traders!
DJ:DJIShort
by DaddySawbucks
7