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Bulltrap

Bear trap before a dead cat bounce?Good day Traders Bitcoin has been battling with our DMA50 resistance, is now printing hidden bearish divergence on the daily, and we have potential for bearish DI cross looming. The recent short squeeze managed a 38.2 fib retracement after our drop from our 24 December swing high, so I have a 168.1 fib extension target of $2780 if we fail to get above DMA50. Although we had a strong volume candle on the squeeze, we lacked any volume follow-through for a continuation of a rally, and once we reached DMA50, our buying volume dropped off, unlike the build up of buying volume when we bounced from our December lows. A healthy rally would entail us taking the stairs up and elevator down but this was an elevator straight to our DMA50 resistance. We could potentially have a drop / bear trap from here, breaking below WMA200 to set new lows, invalidating the triangle from my previous chart and forming support of a large falling wedge, triggering stops just below $3k. Bitcoin should then have a dead cat bounce, first back above WMA200, then to wedge resistance, and then a breakout with a $4200-$4400 resistance target sometime towards the end of March / start of April. When btc reaches $4200, I suspect we'll encounter strong horizontal resistance as we have since we dropped below $4500 in November last year and we should meet our DMA100. Depending on the strength of trend and bottom-calling fomo, we should have a 38.2 fib retracement back to our 61.8 fib support, somewhere around $3670, which will give us 168.1 fib bull trap extension target of $5110 (to DMA200) once we break above that $4240 - $4480 and DMA100 resistance. If we have a deeper 50 fib retracement to $3500, I'll revise my bull trap target to $4770, which would be a 138.2 fib extension target. We should then potentially drop back to our $3k support, extending the bear market, with a move to new sub $2500 lows. Have a look at the NVT indicator which gives us a network value to transactions ratio and has been quite accurate so far on the daily chart for predicting the bottom/top. You'll see that we're in a great buy area on the weekly chart (flashes green for buy red for sell), but we still haven't bottomed yet on the daily chart, and you'll see that there was only 1 day where it flashed green in 2015 and that was during capitulation. Previous chart and potential to new lows from here: Scenario where we've already bottomed: Another bearish scenario:
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Corn_Reaper
3
Who is in control? I'm not kidding! I warned!Now give me hopeful people at BITCOIN. What is the main trend? What is the largest volume? Who's in charge of this game? What are the technical indications that the game has changed? People are full of hope in TOP TRADING VIEW, they are highly manipulative people. They need to live, they need to sell their expertise on their call. They live on it. They lie! Take your money and go buy knowledge, not SHITCOINS cheap service. This is not an investment. An investment in knowledge pays the best interest. Benjamin Franklin Buy books. This market is far from over. Stop fighting the trend. Is she your friend. Now go look at my studies. I'm not famous. I do not want your money I will not fool you Now go!
BITMEX:XBTShort
by f3rG0D
Bull Trap is comingCome on TOP TRADINGVIEW! I will help you. No, wait. Know how to read candles? Or do you copy ideas to sell your signals? Better start finding another service. This market is dead! Did you understand Without regulation no money will enter here! What is the 700 billionth of the marketcap? Where are they? Why did they run away? The bottom is farther than you can imagine. Better not post ideas like ZERO. Bitcoin goes from 0 USD and goes to 20k is this normal! Blockchain is revolutionary !!!!! LMAO! Now get out of 20 and go to 0 is crazy? OK!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by f3rG0D
1
Bitcoin Whales And Their Bots Controlling The MarketA few days ago i said i would make an educational analysis about that pattern i saw a few days, something i have seen many MANY times this year. Especially since May until September this year. What do we see here: After breakouts like we had a few days, where we see a squeeze up happen within 1 or 2 minutes, then we see a dump happen just as fast and usually around 50% of the up move. The most important factor, is the speed of the push down. These are bots in action because nobody can react that fast AND feel so confident to push the price down during a squeeze up, unless you know you have unlimited funds and volume to play with. The only time i know they failed, was in July, when the 6800 broke and we squeezed up to the 7.500. If you remember, i mentioned that several times, because since that moment, it took a while until they showed up again. There were around 200 mil contracts liquidated that day :) After the push down has been made, we usually see a small bear flag forming, like they are getting a feel of the buying pressure of the market before they start to make their second push down. A few days ago, the buy volume was probably still too strong to we tested the high again, something that didn't happen earlier this year. So there is a slight change in that pattern. Today's move, which i warned for yesterday was only a 30/40 point move up. But the push down fits the profile i described. And since we are at lower prices now, it might be fair to assume they are at it again. What and why do they do it. Why? They play games with over leveraged traders. We always get these obvious resistance or support levels. If it's a bull or bear flag or trend line breakouts. So many traders who are breakout traders go long at these highs while THEY have their short orders already in the book ready to get filled. Then they push the price down just as fast, putting these bulls under immediate pressure. They wait and see a bit how the rest of the market reacts, if they see buying volume dropping, they start to push the price down even more. Because they trapped these breakout traders, they use THEIR volume as their own, because as soon as these over leveraged traders start to get in a loosing position, they will cut their losses and start to sell as well (or get liquidated which has the same result). So creating volume (fuel) for these whales. And if the market is not strong enough to catch the volume of both of these sellers, we start to see those Bart moves and the market starts to drop again. You probably remember this chart i showed a week ago, before that move up happened and dropped again. This is a bigger version and a different pattern but it's the same tactic. In case you wondered how the hell did i know it would move like that, well know you have your answer :). Of course it is an assumption upfront and it's not that easy, but it does increase your odds in trading when your aware of these kind of things. If i get a big support for this educational analysis through likes, i will make a part 2 and will show you examples of these patterns. It takes me many hours to make these kind of educational posts, so i will only continue when i see enough people find it interesting. I also still have that long term (with log trend lines ) educational post, i am half way but still needs a lot to complete it. I might post that one as well in the near future. Maybe some will finally see and understand the false preferences most TA analysts tell you. Not on purpose, they simply don't know any better. Now i don't need to prove my right with this and i won't even try, it's up to you to make your own conclusion. But i think the fact 90% of retail traders looses money in the financial markets says more than enough. The chart is here below, probably finished but i might still adjust it a bit I can see only 1 solution for this manipulation, that is combining the volume of all exchanges in 1 order book. Because then they would much more volume to push the price around. Now they only need 1,2 or 3 exchanges and the rest will follow since there are so many bots reacting automatically. Combining all the volume , would make it MUCH more difficult to control. Not impossible, because the same manipulation happens on the normal markets as well. So in other words, the decentralization of crypto is actually biting it in it's own ass when you think about it. Very unfortunate, but it's the hard truth. Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :) Previous educational analysis:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by botje11
124
US 30 May Be Headed for a Very Unmerry XmasTwain observed in Pudd'nhead Wilson; "October. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February." How about a December crash? If this model plays out Santa will by cryin'. Notice rejection this week at TL. Downtrend continues. "Pie-in-the-sky" forecasts of Sand P 3000 and DowJonzed 30,000 are not likely at this juncture. Bull traps! Retracements have been between .382 - 0.50, notice the Fibo bars (note arrows). If we enjoy a similar pattern on the next bounce could climb back as high as 25,500 or turn back sooner at 24400. There's a short entry window 100 pips wide. If a five-wave complex down wave emerges the pattern could look like this projection, and a 4th wave might give another bounce before capitulation. Or not.. maybe it just breaks. There seems to be no bottom in this market, every day is a chance for 600-800 pip selloff. It's getting closer to real panic in my humble opine. One day soon will go off 2K... GLTA This ain't advice, it's just a funny looking chart with mostly random squiggles, they probably have no meaning, invest at your own risk!
DJ:DJIShort
by DaddySawbucks
1
[b]Bitcoin - It's just a correction, don't get fooled ![/b]** IT'S NOT AN OPPORTUNITY TO BUY YET !!!! Price is moving in 5 ways to the downside since the selloff from 6000 Wave 1,3 & 5 will go lower where as waves 2 & 4 will go counter trend and correct a % of the previous move. Wave 3 is often the extended wave, meaning it's the longest and you should be able to count 5 subwaves inside it. Once those 5 waves end, we get wave 3, after wich comes a correction higher in wave 4 in a 3 waves manner(abc for example) or a more complexe correction(but still just a correction !). I'm confident we have those 5 waves down as a wave (3), now price is therefore in a correction higher for wave (4). After wave (4) ends (should be near 0.382 level ~4500 ideally), look for price to fall a bit further for wave (5) near the 3100 level (or possibly lower)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by ElliottWaveBelgium
Want sub $3k? Build a Bull Trap to $8kIf you want to play with the big dogs, you have to bark like one. Everyone is waiting for lower prices. When the retail traders see the discounts slipping away, they will quickly start piling on the market buy orders. Our trend will then create the feel of a false downward breakout of the large yearly descending triangle (in green), and create the illusion of a new bull market. Don't get caught in the trap. HODL until $8k, then take your profits, or someone else will take them for you. The bubble will pop, just not yet, so be patient. -racethehair
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by racethehare
Micro Bull / Macro BearCreating a bulltrap is the best way to take BTC lower. Our ultimate trap would be high of $8k on this run, and just as quickly as it went up, bag holders and FOLOs (fear of losing out) will ultimately sell to sub $3k. Alts will make 3x - 5x more gains during this final uptrend. But the bubble has to burst. What better way than to build the final bull trap for all the retail traders. Don't fall in the trap. HODL your bags until $8k (end of Dec/beginning of Jan) and take your profit, or someone else will take it for you. -racethehair
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by racethehare
Traps and TargetsBeen very busy and its been a while since I posted. Apologies for that and thanks to all of you who keep up the good work. In two minds here, which is a typical predicament with trading. The 15th October spike that popped through the top of the long term triangle has been seen by some as a bear flag, and I can see their point, but for me there is more compelling evidence for a bull run. In the immediate future my thoughts are... Currently BTC is looking to pull back before the next push. However there is a lot of pushing going on and the pull back is struggling to get a foot hold, so we keep getting sideways movement. As a result I foresee a small upward movement above the very recent resistance triggering a small sell-off (Bull Trap). This will then drop down to the support, the 'RSI 1Hr will hit oversold and bounce up to higher resistance levels (Bear trap). 'BTC will break out of the long term triangle and the 4Hr RSI move into overbought territory also. How high it will go I am not sure, but will certainly be keeping a close eye on it. This is all my opinion and its probably wrong ;)
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by reppac
1
XRP Bullish scenarioHi there, This is my vision on XRP if the bulls can overtake the bears in the coming weeks. On the daily XRP is forming a bull flag with an ascending triangle and it's been finding support on the 200 daily. If it is to break out we will probably go above the previous high. Now volume is important to give it momentum, xRapid adoption or speculation might cause this. Shorts are also picking up again so another short squeeze when we break resistance is also possible. There are some mixed signals at the moment, we also see a double top which makes this look a bit like a bull trap. There are points to be made on the bear and bull side. However oktober till december are historically good months for crypto so i'm leaning towards the long side here. XRP makes a lot of vertical moves so it is important to keep an eye on this if it breaks out so we don't miss the opportunity. We probably see this play out somewhere around the 15th. Comments, critics, and different ideas are most welcome. So if you don't agree with me please let me know, i'm always eager to learn.
Long
by Bittimmer