EURUSD : Stoploss Hunters in ActionA simple analysis of trading psychology that was recently happened on EURUSD.
1. Price broke through the upper trendline, breakout players jumping in and start buying the pairs.
2. The big players(institutional, hedge funds, etc) let the market ran for a while to wait until a lot of bulls entered the market.
3. Most of novice traders are easy to read, so the big players can predict their entries and stoploss. In this case, most of the entry and stoploss triggers are probably set on these 2 lines.
4. Once the bullish momentum slowly built up, those big players started pouring sell orders in huge chunks, drowning all the retail traders who had taken buy position thinking the breakout would continue.
5. Price slowly going down even though most of traders were sure the breakout was a sign that price might go higher. Some novice might have thought that this bearish movement was just some retracement before price launch like a rocket.
6. The institutional traders, this time, managed to push price down until it started hitting the stoplosses of the retail traders. A stoploss of a long position equals as a sell order when triggered.
These triggered stoploss, combined with new sellers that jumping in after seeing a strong selling pressures, can only fuel the bearish momentum even more, resulting in an even bigger selling pressure.
Bulltrap
WHALE´s HEAD & SHOULDER -BEAR TRAPHello everyone
I want to share what I'm seeing.
I am seeing a head and shoulders development for several reasons:
1) It strikes me that this bottom bounce is not reflected in the wonderful ChrisMoody ´s indicator to find bottoms. Its show the bottom in GREEN. It's the first time in years that I've seen this. It would look like a bullish rebound without really bottoming reached. Therefore, I will be very suspicious of this flag. This tool would indicate us that it is a bear trap.... We will be cautious.
2) The bullish candles of 3/18/18 and 3/3/18 occurred in less than 5 minutes!!!!!!!!!!!
For all this my interpretation is that a whale did not want to leave out all the small fish that were waiting for the fall to 6000u $ s and before hitting bottom, made a massive purchase of BTC to leave all these small fish out and generate "Fear and panic "among them. The climb was so fast that he did not have time to react. In this way, the whale begins to eat the frightened small fish on the shoulders and on the head. Once you finish eating. We will go down as fast as we climbed (the same strategy).
We are still in the descending channel.
This is what I see.
I can be mistaken, of course! that's why I have orders to buy with Stop Loss well above the head so the whale will have to try harder to get me into his dinner.
Only for entertainment.
Sergio00 loves you.
Is the Bitcoin Bull Trap still a possibility?OK, I know that my previous chart idea has been invalidated by Bitcoin's rally, but part of me is still suspicious that an almighty bull trap may be ahead of us. Why do I think this?
Wave 3 on my chart seems to fit in with EW theory insofar as volume is high and it is the longest of the waves.
My target for Wave 4 is a 61.8% retrace of Wave 3 on a projected fib timescale that has fairly accurately traced the key peaks and troughs of this downtrend.
We are overbought on the 4 hour chart - although as with previous monster rallies, BTC can stay like this for days.
Projecting a trend line from the lows of summer 2017 (before we entered the parabolic phase) we meet the end of wave 5 at $6,251 which is practically the low of wave 3 and which again, would fit neatly with EW theory (wave 5 doesn't have to exceed wave 3, and is expected to reach it's zenith/nadir on less volume than wave 3).
Whilst I don't want this scenario to play out, I have to admit that it has an irresistible symmetry to it and in my mind, would draw a compelling close on the bear market of 2018.
One thing is for sure, I will be keeping a very close eye on this on Wednesday and Thursday.
Take care and may your trades be profitable.
WATCH-OUT for the BULL TRAP!!!VeChain now rebranded to VeChain Thor. Know as VEN now is changing to VET
It is one of the most promising project in crypto presently. Which is why it grew from 2,200 Satoshi per coin to 81,670 in as little as 53 days. If you do the math, that is more than 36 times gain (+3600%) in less than 2 months.
It ended the run on Jan 21st. Because of the tremendous hype behind this project, during it consolidation, it never retested the orange downtrend line. This result in a gigantic bull trap which is still on. You can see it retested the initial red downtrend line and passed that, so we are never going back down there but we are most likely to run into the orange again before we see any serious bull action for VET. This will also coincide with the WYCHOFFIAN METHOD.
Destination GREEN TARGET, worst case scenario is RED TARGET. Have fun.
BTC has NOT broken out yet, still bearish, possible bull trapToday should be the decision maker on whether we actually break out or not because so far we have failed to break out, not only at this junction but also previously. If this daily turns bearish we are most likely in for a return trip downward before going back up. So keep a level head, watch for a confirmation of breaking out or a confirmation of dropping lower. Either way this daily should tell us which direction we are headed. If it ends as a indecision candle then we will need another daily for confirmation - but don't fall into the hype group that buy without confirmation - unless you want to take that risk.
This is not finacial advice, just sharing thoughts as a daily trader.
Who called the short break out like me!!!Unlike certain 'pros' i've been in this TA game for 3 weeks, difference is they like to over shoot everything. I like to give a realistic target to things. Pros said we are in Inverse Head and Shoulders, where the break out would take us to 18k. I wasn't buying it for a second. I'll keep this short and simple, bitcoin will either bounce off the lighter blue support line or if it breaks through i see it going to 8k and bouncing. If bears bring us down, let's see if 8k area holds. BTW the title is a joke, i'm not trying to be arrogant : )
BACK IN THE DOWNTRENDCHANNEL v2so the daily has turned into an evening star and bulltrap. As for now the 200 EMA looks like strong support, but because the dailycandle is an evening star the next few daily candles are going to be red. That's why I think it will fall through it
the wave to the bottom of the trend channel didn't go down as I predicted in my last TA, but the pattern just got moved up to the evening star. If the support holds for a while and then drops later the wave could end up higher.
Depending on how this week will turn out we will either see a reversal at the the bottom of the green uptrendchannel and end of the wave (9.900-10.000), the fib0.618 or fib0.5 line. When this happens we might form another Inv H&S pattern. and shoot straight up to 13.2k
if these levels don't hold you should panic because the weekly candle is going to be a graveyard doji. the bottom would be around 5-6k.
good luck trading
Bitcoin Bull Trap Unfolding - Hidden Bearish Divergence on DailyOn the daily we have a large hidden bearish divergence. A hidden bearish divergence of this length is rarely wrong. We have bounced completely off both the bearish trend line and closed below it, we have also fell back through FIB retracement line .382 which is a important line to break. We are seeing bearish signs in MACD in 4 hr and several different bearish divergences. Anyone calling this a bull run is crazy, we are definitely still very bearish and this temp rally back towards 11k is probably going to meet with a huge refusal and a further drop lower. We should be looking at a large drop soon.
Keep a level head guys!
BTC/USD - I warned you about the bull trap - what's next?I wrote about this being a bull trap from $10k+ and drew the downwards trendline you see on the chart. Look's like I was dead on for now! (Check out that idea in the link to related ideas).
But what comes next?
I still think BTC could go back to $4.000-5.000, yes! I think the entire market is overinflated at this stage and that a return to mean is for the better - longterm. I am very bullish long term, don't get me wrong. But for now, we will go down.
However, we have a few levels to watch before we can confirm a bigger downtrend. Looks like we are sitting right on the orange trendline which goes back to previous levels from August/September. That will be broken though. A very interesting level to look at: $8900 - $9000 level!
WHY?
Because this represents:
1) the .50 fib retracement which BTC likes to follow
2) A possible (major) inverse head & shoulders forming - left shoulder from $13k high to $10k and back to $12k, head being from $12k to the low at 6k to latest high of $11.8k and a new shoulder forming from that high to the $9k level - with a possible finish and break of neckline at a new run to $12k.
So WATCH the $9k level! If it bounces from here and goes back up towards $12k, we could see a major break to the upside with a potential target of $18k if we break the neckline of the inverted H&S!
If the $9k level breaks to the downside, I am positive we are going back $6k or lower.
Disclaimer: I am currently holding fiat and waiting for entry. This is all my opinion, do your own DD, this is not financial advice.
Let's see what happens, happy trading!
BTC - BULL TRAP - why I am not buying at +$10,000 We are still in a bearish trend/market - until we break the upper downward line.
I think we're in a bull trap, maybe the last one before we see a double bottom at $6000 or slightly lower (see yellow lines).
Then, I think we will see a rise to $7500, with a possible pullback where we will consolidate for a few months, before we gain new strength and start to go up again in a new bull trend/market.
What am I basing that off?
1) Price vs. volume.... Although we are seeing some bigger green candles on the moves, the overall volume is still low and doesn't indicate a new bull run by any means. To have a strong uptrends, volume should follow.
2) We are simply still trading inside the bearish channel on the daily and weekly. Until that is broken, a new (true) bullish trend isn't established.
3) We just had a parabolic run (10x)!!! Those do not come every week or month or year for that matter. The last parabolic run in BTC was in late 2013... BTC is following the same chart pattern as back then: a 70% retracement, a big bounce (current bull trap) and then further bearish movement to a total 82% retracement. That would put as at around $3000-4000. Not sure we will go that low - but a double bottom is very realistic.
4) Just about every "bubble" (which is really just the correction of a parabolic run) follows the same chart pattern - dotcom bubble in 2000 as well... it's a market cycle which has happened over and over again in history in many markets and it will repeat itself. Only out-of-this-world amazing news will change that. That's why their forms are pretty similar and it wouldn't be stupid to compare that current bullish trend to the bull trap of 2014 after the 2013 parabolic run or the dotcom bubble.
To sum up - I am not buying here or anywhere in $10,000's. We might see a move to $11,500 and touch the downward trend line or we might top here at $10,800... I don't know. We are good in the longterm, I believe in blockchain and the crypto space. But in the shorter term, we are going down to consolidate before next legs up.
Let's see how it plays out. Happy trading!
Thoughts? Happy to discuss. This is my opinion - and an idea - not financial advice.
MASSIVE BULLTRAP INCOMING!!Does no one else see it? Recently with the continuing downtrend that we are experiencing with bitcoin a Bulltrap will arise out of the ashes of the current market.
As you can see volume has continued to die off and is still dying, but if there is a rise in buyers (which will happen) what we will see is a massive Bulltrap luring in all traders alike and their mothers, price will quickly inflate to 10k, where we will see some profit taking and a selloff, but it may continue higher depending on how much velocity we have to keep it going which will then land us at 12k resistance what follows will be a bloodbath the likes of never seen before and bitcoin will bleed till it is no more. We will see a massive selloff which will take us back down to 8k but wont stop there. And then finally there will be a return to mean and price will stabilize around 5k resistance probably dropping further down along the way. Volume will continue to go lower and lower. I expect us to stay in the green of the pitchfork, which aligns with our current trend that we are already in. I expect btc to slowly die off as more and more worthy coins come forward to replace this old horse, along with more and more exchanges coming out with fiat pairs and the like, this may be the end of Bitcoin controlling the market with an iron grip and its grip is already loosening.
We already know the price/volume of btc has been massively inflated by the exchanges and institutional investors thus this was bound to happen if you don't see the manipulation at play then I have news for you!
Let me know if this was an eyeopener to some of you optimists in this bear market, any feedback is appreciated!!
What to expect if Bitcoin keeps mimicking NASDAQSo far, the resemblances between the NASDAQ crash and the current Bitcoin crash are numerous:
- Disruptive technology in a speculative bubble.
- Typical bubble burst double top crash (other charts very similar are the Dow Jones crash of 1929, or the uranium chart more recently)
- Ocean of worthless copycats coins based on blockchain technology, surfing on the hype.
- Companies shares price quadrupling in 2 days after adding blockchain to their name (kodak), same as dotcom back then.
- People going into debt, selling their houses, to buy bitcoin at the pic...
And then, chart wise se saw:
PRICE WISE
- A 50% bounce after a 70% correction (same as in nasdaq)
TIME WISE
- Number of days between 2 tops during nasdaq crash was 161 days
- Number of days between 2 tops during Bitcoin crash was 21 days
- Ratio = 21/161 = 0.13
- Number of days between top and 70% correction in nasdaq: 378 days
- Estimated number of days between top and 70% correction in bitcoin: 0.13x378 = 49 days
- Real number of days between top and 70% correction in bitcoin:51 days ~ 49 days -> this method seems to indicate that we are following nasdaq not only for the correction scale in price, but also for the correction timing.
I expended this method to estimate, price and time wise, where the bitcoin should be in the coming days/weeks if we keep following what the nasdaq did back in 2000, and you can see the result on the graph.
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BTC Possible Bear Traps?!Here's another look at BTC's current situation, I alluded to bear traps in my last double bottom update. Here, I zoom in on the 30min chart to show exactly what I'm referring to.
This short uptrend bounce has been very hard fought. It's almost been painful to watch. The last two bull flags didn't break out until about 79% of their own retracement. Now, I think the market can go any direction at any time, but given the slow progress of this rally, it seems odd that in the moment of most despair, a moment in which it appeared these bull flags were failing to form and breaking out back down. It seems odd it was in those moments both times that everyone chose to rally and buy when most indicators would tell you it was dropping and you had the opportunity to buy lower very soon.
I'm not much for conspiracy theories. But I'm not blind to the possibility of market manipulation either. Here we are again, we have the chance to observe and see what happens. It would be one hell of a bear trap to bounce off the 79% retracement again. In this case it also happens to fall on a potential physiological support zone being at an even 8k. Everyone is now calling for a double bottom, and I agree it could shake down like that. But, There's also the chance it bounces here and has the momentum to make it through the combined resistance of the 79% retrace and mid-line of the downward trend.
Either way, it's going to be a fun ride!
Thanks for reading, let me know what you think!
Also, not that anyone was thinking about it; but I don't recommend using any of this advise for trading...
All of my analyses are formed using my own set of highly technical and complex algorithms that I like to refer to as.. pure speculative imagination!
They've done some studies, and 60% of the time.. I'm wrong every time...
Sly2.0
BTCUSD - Venus Trap disguised as recovery after binance comebackRight now we can still observe a relative sideways movement which could be mistaken for a reversal of trends to the upside.
(Volume temporarily increasing artificially as a lure but bitcoin dominance falling from 36% towards 34% as people trying to "secure" their assets in altcoins although if BTC drops everythings dips anyway).
The volume resistance at the time of writing seems to be 424 bn. (falling)
Today binance finally managed to stand up after an unexpected and prolonged downtime of more than 24h.
The fourth largest BTC trading platform by volume is now being flooded with panic buying, fueled by an artificially increased FOMO and weekend gambling.
This is not sustainable and won't be able to break the overall bearish trend and downtrend channel of BTC.
The MACD seems generally bearish as well.
The bulls would like to break the very strong 9000 resistance but struggling heavily.
The bears are patiently waiting for people to regain trust only to form another surprising bottom.
Retesting the 5800-6100 area seems necessary and potentially the bears would welcome a further drop in hope of activating a second round of panic selling so they can enter the market around 6000, 5000 and 4000.
Just be patient and see how it develops. Some expect the next major dip around 10th, 11th or 12th of February 2018.
Others think a large bottom will form around the asian lunar year celebration on 16th of February or even 1st of March.
Some even forecast a hyperinflation of USD fiat between March-May which could be corelated to the crashing stockmarket but I think they will simply print less fiat to temporarily circumvent a 2008-2010 like crisis.
It's always a good idea to have some metals and cryptocurrencies stored.
Historic lows were:
5800-6000 (6th Feb 2018) corresponding to 5800-6000 (12th Nov 2017),
5500 (25th Oct 2017),
5200 (18th Oct 2017),
4200 (5th Oct 2017),
3600 (22nd Sep 2017),
3000 (15th Sep 2017).
Correction waves complete, upcoming rallySome folks think I don't make my charts and explanations simple enough to understand. So here's a plain one ;)
Looking to top out 15-16K, probably about the same time the next round of futures contracts close...
(check out my related charts below if you want to read more details, there really is more to the analysis than a wave count and falling wedge)
If this plays out, it's a 100% rise for those who bought at 8K ;) Tips appreciated, PM me for addresses
BTC next targetThis is not a financial idea, I may be wrong, it's only my opinion, you are responsible if you follow my thoughts.
BTC failed to get the momentum to develop higher targets, so traders will cut their loses now before it too late especially the bad news doesn't stop raining. You can buy in portions at each support(Better to buy at the second support, the first probably is too weak to bounce up) so in the end you get average buy price and sell at resistance. I have been following BTC chart since December so all resistance and support lines are drawn and here the keys to read the color and thick meaning:
Bold line means strong resistance/ support.
Yellow for the 04H frame.
Brown for the daily frame.
BTC: Bull trapSo we bounced on the 6100 support level on the 200 SMA
If we are still in the crash of the biggest bubble in mankind's history, which i think we are, i expect a bounce of 50% like the nasdaq did when it crashed in 2000, before resuming the downward move.
So we might reach the $9200 resistance before going down again.
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How deep will Bitcoin crash?Bitcoin is still in free fall. No more support levels to stop or decelerate the loss of value. There is still no safe ground to identify.
I expect a temporary halt and a consolidation around the current level of 8900 USD per Bitcoin. In my opinion, this should be a good level for buying some Bitcoins for a short and risky ride upwards. However, during the last few weeks many of such short term opportunities reveald as bull traps.
Another bulltrap! Downtrend finished now?BTC has made another bulltrap, only this time at the bottom of the broader range (see also my last post about the first bulltrap).
How to avoid this trap and profit from it?
When prices hit the lower trendline of the broad range at 10800 the early longs stepped in and it quickly bounced to the former support 11080.
This was the first leg up inside the downtrend channel, tuning down again exactly at the breakout level (11080).
Now it looks bearish again, right? No, often there will be another equal leg up , because it traps longs in an pushes shorts out.
BTC broke the downtrend line and mad a new higher high at 11.150.
Now it is time buy, right? No, a classic little trap for the bulls, just go short!
Always think about what could the market do to throw people off ... only to continue in the trend direction (down).
Now it was time to put pressure on the early longs and go for their stops. So you could justify another short below 11000 when it turned down at the EMA and trendline again .
Everyone who got aggressively long at the 10800-900 area had to see their stops being taken out by a fast and strong downmove to the next support level around 10300.
Right now prices are likely to bounce back to at least 10500 or even 10800, so to cover (some) of a short position at 10300 is a legit option.
The downtrend cannot be declared over, a real reversal will take some time imho...