Bulltrap
DON'T BE FOOLED AGAIN....To be straight forward honest with you, I did not expect BTC to reach 7k before the major leg down.
But there are two important things I'd like to talk about.
1. Notice how on the log scale we didn't even break through March's downtrend.
Remembers me of the time when BTC broke through December's resistance on the auto scale, everybody was bullish and nothing happened.
BTC actually went down again.
Why?
Because this major resistance hasn't been broken on the log scale.
Same thing might happen here.
2. We got yet another rising wedge forming.
BTC formed a similar rising wedge at the beginning of April - remember how bullish everybody was?
The afore mentioned rising wedge was underlined by a (hidden) bearish divergence.
Well...guess what.
BTC is forming yet another rising wedge, with a hidden bearish divergence on the 1H Chart AND apparently on the daily chart.
If the wedge is confirmed by a high volume breakdown, expect 5.800$ to happen and consider shorting.
In case BTC manages to break through 7.250$, we might see 7.500$.
Wish you a nice sunday.
BTC Purgatory ... heaven or hell?Well, interesting and confusing movements from BTC. Is this a grand setup for a bull trap, which will set off the final decent to sub 6k levels, or has grand wave 5 ended, and the confusion as sign that BTC has reached bottom, and a market reversal is fueling up?
Scenario B assumes we are now forming wave 4, and the bull trap is being set. It was clear that hovering around the 6.5k mark would not provide the steam necessary to go down to the 4k, 5k or 6k levels most were hoping for. Imagine all the margin short positions that got taken out in this last move up ... a good way for wall street to make money. And after this rise, will they achieve the momentum they'll need on a short to take BTC to a bottom that is 6k or lower?? Food for thought.
OR!!!!
Scenario C assumes we are done and the bears have given up. This would mean we've completed wave 4 AND wave 5 with a double bottom test at 6.5k BTC. This would move would also mean we are experiencing a market reversal, which would explain all the confusing signals.
Have we crossed over into a bull heaven, or are the bears gripping BTC's ankle, pulling it back into the fiery flames of hell.
Remember, only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
Do not rely on this information for investment decisions. For educational purposes only.
$BTC Bull TrapBTC found support at 6550 and bounced a little earlier than expected, I still believe we need to retrace to at least the 6400 wedge support (possibly to 6000) before we have a shot at breaking this long term downtrend.
We now have a bull flag forming on the 1H MACD just crossed bull, RSI also bull. We might see a bounce back up to around 7k - this just seems to be a bull trap wolves, keep your shorts open. Try and scalp the bounce if you dare.
A big bearish Gartley forming?
Just had this idea of big bearish Gartley forming. 4h Rsi bouncing off of short term trend line towards upper downtrend rsi line. 4h Macd heading towards trend line to touch the Macd-spike downtrend line on log chart (8100-8300).
This would make a very big bearish Gartley pattern, which would lead to a big drop under 6k (I´m thinking it could possibly go as low as 3850)
There could be a nice opportunity to take a long position from under 6900, and eventually close it above 8k to start to build a big short position.
But what do I know?
AUDUSD in midst of 60 min / 15 min Supply zone This looks like a bull trap after a retail breakout (0.77151) resistance.
The trap is a clutch of sell orders ready to go in the 0.77219 - 0.77256 range.
Sell in this range, 20 -25 pip stop.
1x and 2x targets are in range.
Good luck
Tim
(Bitcoin) Green Wedge of Gains? Or trap - nothing is certainUsually a rising wedge like turns out bearish when it breaks down from it.
Let's see how far it can take us, seems to be trying to go towards the 50 ema (blue line above)
Right now with how manipulated the market is TA isn't the best to predict movements. Which ever group that is controlling BTC is doing whatever they can to throw off typical scenarios.
EURUSD : Stoploss Hunters in ActionA simple analysis of trading psychology that was recently happened on EURUSD.
1. Price broke through the upper trendline, breakout players jumping in and start buying the pairs.
2. The big players(institutional, hedge funds, etc) let the market ran for a while to wait until a lot of bulls entered the market.
3. Most of novice traders are easy to read, so the big players can predict their entries and stoploss. In this case, most of the entry and stoploss triggers are probably set on these 2 lines.
4. Once the bullish momentum slowly built up, those big players started pouring sell orders in huge chunks, drowning all the retail traders who had taken buy position thinking the breakout would continue.
5. Price slowly going down even though most of traders were sure the breakout was a sign that price might go higher. Some novice might have thought that this bearish movement was just some retracement before price launch like a rocket.
6. The institutional traders, this time, managed to push price down until it started hitting the stoplosses of the retail traders. A stoploss of a long position equals as a sell order when triggered.
These triggered stoploss, combined with new sellers that jumping in after seeing a strong selling pressures, can only fuel the bearish momentum even more, resulting in an even bigger selling pressure.
WHALE´s HEAD & SHOULDER -BEAR TRAPHello everyone
I want to share what I'm seeing.
I am seeing a head and shoulders development for several reasons:
1) It strikes me that this bottom bounce is not reflected in the wonderful ChrisMoody ´s indicator to find bottoms. Its show the bottom in GREEN. It's the first time in years that I've seen this. It would look like a bullish rebound without really bottoming reached. Therefore, I will be very suspicious of this flag. This tool would indicate us that it is a bear trap.... We will be cautious.
2) The bullish candles of 3/18/18 and 3/3/18 occurred in less than 5 minutes!!!!!!!!!!!
For all this my interpretation is that a whale did not want to leave out all the small fish that were waiting for the fall to 6000u $ s and before hitting bottom, made a massive purchase of BTC to leave all these small fish out and generate "Fear and panic "among them. The climb was so fast that he did not have time to react. In this way, the whale begins to eat the frightened small fish on the shoulders and on the head. Once you finish eating. We will go down as fast as we climbed (the same strategy).
We are still in the descending channel.
This is what I see.
I can be mistaken, of course! that's why I have orders to buy with Stop Loss well above the head so the whale will have to try harder to get me into his dinner.
Only for entertainment.
Sergio00 loves you.
Is the Bitcoin Bull Trap still a possibility?OK, I know that my previous chart idea has been invalidated by Bitcoin's rally, but part of me is still suspicious that an almighty bull trap may be ahead of us. Why do I think this?
Wave 3 on my chart seems to fit in with EW theory insofar as volume is high and it is the longest of the waves.
My target for Wave 4 is a 61.8% retrace of Wave 3 on a projected fib timescale that has fairly accurately traced the key peaks and troughs of this downtrend.
We are overbought on the 4 hour chart - although as with previous monster rallies, BTC can stay like this for days.
Projecting a trend line from the lows of summer 2017 (before we entered the parabolic phase) we meet the end of wave 5 at $6,251 which is practically the low of wave 3 and which again, would fit neatly with EW theory (wave 5 doesn't have to exceed wave 3, and is expected to reach it's zenith/nadir on less volume than wave 3).
Whilst I don't want this scenario to play out, I have to admit that it has an irresistible symmetry to it and in my mind, would draw a compelling close on the bear market of 2018.
One thing is for sure, I will be keeping a very close eye on this on Wednesday and Thursday.
Take care and may your trades be profitable.
WATCH-OUT for the BULL TRAP!!!VeChain now rebranded to VeChain Thor. Know as VEN now is changing to VET
It is one of the most promising project in crypto presently. Which is why it grew from 2,200 Satoshi per coin to 81,670 in as little as 53 days. If you do the math, that is more than 36 times gain (+3600%) in less than 2 months.
It ended the run on Jan 21st. Because of the tremendous hype behind this project, during it consolidation, it never retested the orange downtrend line. This result in a gigantic bull trap which is still on. You can see it retested the initial red downtrend line and passed that, so we are never going back down there but we are most likely to run into the orange again before we see any serious bull action for VET. This will also coincide with the WYCHOFFIAN METHOD.
Destination GREEN TARGET, worst case scenario is RED TARGET. Have fun.
BTC has NOT broken out yet, still bearish, possible bull trapToday should be the decision maker on whether we actually break out or not because so far we have failed to break out, not only at this junction but also previously. If this daily turns bearish we are most likely in for a return trip downward before going back up. So keep a level head, watch for a confirmation of breaking out or a confirmation of dropping lower. Either way this daily should tell us which direction we are headed. If it ends as a indecision candle then we will need another daily for confirmation - but don't fall into the hype group that buy without confirmation - unless you want to take that risk.
This is not finacial advice, just sharing thoughts as a daily trader.
Who called the short break out like me!!!Unlike certain 'pros' i've been in this TA game for 3 weeks, difference is they like to over shoot everything. I like to give a realistic target to things. Pros said we are in Inverse Head and Shoulders, where the break out would take us to 18k. I wasn't buying it for a second. I'll keep this short and simple, bitcoin will either bounce off the lighter blue support line or if it breaks through i see it going to 8k and bouncing. If bears bring us down, let's see if 8k area holds. BTW the title is a joke, i'm not trying to be arrogant : )
BACK IN THE DOWNTRENDCHANNEL v2so the daily has turned into an evening star and bulltrap. As for now the 200 EMA looks like strong support, but because the dailycandle is an evening star the next few daily candles are going to be red. That's why I think it will fall through it
the wave to the bottom of the trend channel didn't go down as I predicted in my last TA, but the pattern just got moved up to the evening star. If the support holds for a while and then drops later the wave could end up higher.
Depending on how this week will turn out we will either see a reversal at the the bottom of the green uptrendchannel and end of the wave (9.900-10.000), the fib0.618 or fib0.5 line. When this happens we might form another Inv H&S pattern. and shoot straight up to 13.2k
if these levels don't hold you should panic because the weekly candle is going to be a graveyard doji. the bottom would be around 5-6k.
good luck trading
Bitcoin Bull Trap Unfolding - Hidden Bearish Divergence on DailyOn the daily we have a large hidden bearish divergence. A hidden bearish divergence of this length is rarely wrong. We have bounced completely off both the bearish trend line and closed below it, we have also fell back through FIB retracement line .382 which is a important line to break. We are seeing bearish signs in MACD in 4 hr and several different bearish divergences. Anyone calling this a bull run is crazy, we are definitely still very bearish and this temp rally back towards 11k is probably going to meet with a huge refusal and a further drop lower. We should be looking at a large drop soon.
Keep a level head guys!
BTC/USD - I warned you about the bull trap - what's next?I wrote about this being a bull trap from $10k+ and drew the downwards trendline you see on the chart. Look's like I was dead on for now! (Check out that idea in the link to related ideas).
But what comes next?
I still think BTC could go back to $4.000-5.000, yes! I think the entire market is overinflated at this stage and that a return to mean is for the better - longterm. I am very bullish long term, don't get me wrong. But for now, we will go down.
However, we have a few levels to watch before we can confirm a bigger downtrend. Looks like we are sitting right on the orange trendline which goes back to previous levels from August/September. That will be broken though. A very interesting level to look at: $8900 - $9000 level!
WHY?
Because this represents:
1) the .50 fib retracement which BTC likes to follow
2) A possible (major) inverse head & shoulders forming - left shoulder from $13k high to $10k and back to $12k, head being from $12k to the low at 6k to latest high of $11.8k and a new shoulder forming from that high to the $9k level - with a possible finish and break of neckline at a new run to $12k.
So WATCH the $9k level! If it bounces from here and goes back up towards $12k, we could see a major break to the upside with a potential target of $18k if we break the neckline of the inverted H&S!
If the $9k level breaks to the downside, I am positive we are going back $6k or lower.
Disclaimer: I am currently holding fiat and waiting for entry. This is all my opinion, do your own DD, this is not financial advice.
Let's see what happens, happy trading!
BTC - BULL TRAP - why I am not buying at +$10,000 We are still in a bearish trend/market - until we break the upper downward line.
I think we're in a bull trap, maybe the last one before we see a double bottom at $6000 or slightly lower (see yellow lines).
Then, I think we will see a rise to $7500, with a possible pullback where we will consolidate for a few months, before we gain new strength and start to go up again in a new bull trend/market.
What am I basing that off?
1) Price vs. volume.... Although we are seeing some bigger green candles on the moves, the overall volume is still low and doesn't indicate a new bull run by any means. To have a strong uptrends, volume should follow.
2) We are simply still trading inside the bearish channel on the daily and weekly. Until that is broken, a new (true) bullish trend isn't established.
3) We just had a parabolic run (10x)!!! Those do not come every week or month or year for that matter. The last parabolic run in BTC was in late 2013... BTC is following the same chart pattern as back then: a 70% retracement, a big bounce (current bull trap) and then further bearish movement to a total 82% retracement. That would put as at around $3000-4000. Not sure we will go that low - but a double bottom is very realistic.
4) Just about every "bubble" (which is really just the correction of a parabolic run) follows the same chart pattern - dotcom bubble in 2000 as well... it's a market cycle which has happened over and over again in history in many markets and it will repeat itself. Only out-of-this-world amazing news will change that. That's why their forms are pretty similar and it wouldn't be stupid to compare that current bullish trend to the bull trap of 2014 after the 2013 parabolic run or the dotcom bubble.
To sum up - I am not buying here or anywhere in $10,000's. We might see a move to $11,500 and touch the downward trend line or we might top here at $10,800... I don't know. We are good in the longterm, I believe in blockchain and the crypto space. But in the shorter term, we are going down to consolidate before next legs up.
Let's see how it plays out. Happy trading!
Thoughts? Happy to discuss. This is my opinion - and an idea - not financial advice.
MONERO ... NO GOODLook at that volume when Monero get bullish. And now... very low volume = BULL TRAP
Monero does always the same. Down Down Down... and BOOOM. Why should it behive differently this time? Wait for a better entry point and short your monero.
You will buy more Monero in a month!
MASSIVE BULLTRAP INCOMING!!Does no one else see it? Recently with the continuing downtrend that we are experiencing with bitcoin a Bulltrap will arise out of the ashes of the current market.
As you can see volume has continued to die off and is still dying, but if there is a rise in buyers (which will happen) what we will see is a massive Bulltrap luring in all traders alike and their mothers, price will quickly inflate to 10k, where we will see some profit taking and a selloff, but it may continue higher depending on how much velocity we have to keep it going which will then land us at 12k resistance what follows will be a bloodbath the likes of never seen before and bitcoin will bleed till it is no more. We will see a massive selloff which will take us back down to 8k but wont stop there. And then finally there will be a return to mean and price will stabilize around 5k resistance probably dropping further down along the way. Volume will continue to go lower and lower. I expect us to stay in the green of the pitchfork, which aligns with our current trend that we are already in. I expect btc to slowly die off as more and more worthy coins come forward to replace this old horse, along with more and more exchanges coming out with fiat pairs and the like, this may be the end of Bitcoin controlling the market with an iron grip and its grip is already loosening.
We already know the price/volume of btc has been massively inflated by the exchanges and institutional investors thus this was bound to happen if you don't see the manipulation at play then I have news for you!
Let me know if this was an eyeopener to some of you optimists in this bear market, any feedback is appreciated!!
btc - testtesting fib circles, am mainly saving this for my self to check back with later. Am anticipating a run up, and then great drop after we pass the next circle in 25 minutes.
$6k incoming again, tomorrow or next day is my prediction.
