Wild speculation about the retest of the low at 10k ;)What can the market do to trap people to the wrong side and then go where you thought it would be going?
This scenario is pure speculation, but a way it could play out, if you are looking for a retest of the low (10.000).
Whatever happens, always pay attention to the short-term trends (inside ranges)!
Bulltrap
Bull TrapBitcoin has always been a bull trap, investors got In early before praying on a rebellious section of the population to propose itself as the death of banks the end of inflation. little did these dumb money investors know they were in the deep end with sharks everywhere they are still dying praying for recovery which is entirely possible, but trading is dependent on a smart mature mind. do you panic when you see your stock falling? are you over leveraged? are you being greedy? its a beautiful game, long term I hope bitcoin and other cryptos show the world there potential so I'm all for it. ill be analysing and looking for a yearly position id like to see 5k again first happy trading give me a thumbs up
Correction may not be over, bull trap could followContext
As per my previous analysis here , BTC is moving within a well defined triangle pattern on the 1 day chart. The market refused an early breakout yesterday and you can see how it happened by analyzing the 4h chart above.
Current setup and likely outcome
BTC completed an Elliott Wave impulse sequence (12345) uniting the edges of the larger timeframe triangle. The corrective wave A unfolded today and it looks like wave B may have started. Be careful if you want to trade it, it's not called a bull trap for nothing!
Given the larger triangle pattern, wave C may rest on the supporting trend line when it comes. That may be the sweet spot for long positions.
Alternative outcomes
First I should mention that I'm favoring the ABC pattern you see above over all other outcomes because 1) it plays in perfectly with the larger timeframe triangle and 2) it fits in nicely with the textbook impulse waves we've seen so far. However, we could also see:
- an ABCDE triangle that could end in a breakout that also ends the larger triangle.
- upward breakout instead of wave B (less likely due to Elliott pattern)
- wave C acting as trigger for downward breakout, thus ending the larger triangle pattern. I don't think wave C will get that far down, but we'll have to see how the red line support holds before we can rule this one out.
Ways to play this set-up
- Wave B could earn some short term profits if played wisely or grant the possibility of favorably exiting previously placed trades.
- If we do see a wave C, one could open an average sized long position when the price hits the red support line and add to it gradually as the bounce-back is confirmed.
This post reflects my opinion and is not to be considered financial advice.
BTC Futures Wall Street Bears comingI am expecting a bull trap before massive shorts come in. 50 MA $8500 , 7.3 100 EMA, 5.5 200 MA and 4.7k EMA. A full .786 retracement puts us at 4.7k and .618 7.1k. Dailly RSI confirms a bearish divergence. Markets fall faster than gain, and big money will take advantage of the volatile market. Be careful going long here. Nothing goes up in a straight line forever , market retracements are a healthy part of markets. I wouldn't go in anymore than 10% equity until things clear up with what the big money wants to do. But I highly doubt banks will pump this as Bitcoin is a threat to them.
BTCUSD BulltrapBe carefull, don't get bulltraped. High chance that we are in one now.
Previous falls always retraced to 0.786 fib, then fall continued, and ended on WMA(200) line, with touching oversold zone on RSI, so high chance of repeating.
We have strong support on 5000, so fall should'n be ended below that poin, but it's crypto, and the panic is good way to buy more.
According elliot waves (4) should enden below wave (1), but we can break that level(previous hight 4970) short term, to cause some panic.
Bitcoin Corrective Tsunami Only Half Over?The move to $4k invalidated some key requirements of Elliott Wave Theory in regards to subwave numbering of the ABC corrective wave. Therefore, we need to re-analyze and re-number waves.
There are two possibilities here. The first is that the ABC corrective wave has completed and that we are in the early stages of a bull trend. The second is that the ABC corrective wave is even deeper than originally thought, and we are just nearing the end of corrective subwave B of the ABC correction. However, market analysis doesn’t only consist of technical analysis, we also need to consider fundamental analysis, and market sentiment. The three pillars of market analysis.
Fundamentals are weak, given the political environment in China, and the announcement by the Chinese government that all crypto exchanges will need to be closed by end of Sept. with a grace period being given to a couple exchanges to the end of Oct. What this means is that there will likely be a large migration of volume to other asian markets, likely Korea, Japan, and others. In addition, it is also highly likely, that many Chinese will just sell and withdraw their Chinese Yuan, and so this news is highly bearish for Bitcoin and all crypto in general, as Bitcoin sets the overall market trend.
Market sentiment is still quite bearish. There is a market-wide feeling of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. There is a feeling of distrust of the recent bull move, seeing it as a kind of bull trap before even deeper lows are realized. It seems many are quite content to sit on the sidelines, waiting it out until things stabilize and there aren’t so many contradictory signals.
Given this, I am of the view that we are very mush still entrenched in a bear market and the second scenario that we are moving to deeper lows is much more likely.
In this context, it appears that we are nearing the end of the B wave of a larger ABC correction. This B wave has a notorious reputation for being a bull trap, as it can appear quite aggressive. We may still have some room to continue the B wave to the $4100 or $4200 range, but when it finishes, we should begin the C wave of the ABC correction. And this wave has the potential to bring us down to somewhere between the $1800 and $2500 area.
So the ABC correction looks very roughly like this:
A wave: $5k-$3k
B wave: $3k-$4k
C wave: $4k-$2k
Preliminary price targets for wave (II) correspond to wave (I) fib. retracements of 0.5 and 0.618 giving $2475 and $1835. In addition, we have the 1.0 extension of wave A at $2081.
On top of that, the long-term trend line (1d) intersects this price territory at around the $2500-$2600 level. And the last time we had a major correction (40%), we closed about $100 below this trend line for a few periods (over half a day) before reversing.
Also, establishing a parallel descending trend channel for the current ABC correction, shows that we can reach our targets without ever leaving this channel.
Lastly, experimenting with the Fibonacci sprial tool shows how these price targets can touch the spiral with target lows reached sometime in very early October. The chart is scaled so that this fib. spiral aligns with the fib. time-based extension tool, for calculating wave C as the time-based fib. 1.0 extension of wave A (or at least it was, but publishing seems to have re-scaled it slightly and moved the spiral just short of the fib. 1.0 vertical).
Target I: Wave (II) = intersection of long-term (1d) trend-line ($2575)
Target II: Wave (II) = 0.5 x Wave (I) ($2475)
Target III: Wave C = 1.0 x Wave A ($2093)
Target IV: Wave (II) = 0.618 x Wave (I) ($1835)
Is the Bull Dead? #Ripple #XRP What goes up, Must come down. Ripple holds the key. If this key fib level is broken, the flood gates will open and red will flow.
Hope it doesn't or else it will be a long painful ride down for everyone, except for the banks whom quietly exited back in June... of course.
!Cautious approach to SILVER! Easy break through zone for silver where cloud made a thin area to break, Caution though, simple breaks like these do not provide strong data on whether to continue long or short. CTF bouncing on lowest level and testing its strength against trend lines be ready for anything.
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CTF - SILVER
-No Trade action until SILVER can get itself together again. Will re-analysis next Monday.
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Trade Safe everyone!
SHORT Short term bearish move in BitcoinI see bitcoin dropping to around 2k and possibly lower, saw a good setup so I thought I would share with you guys. This is in a bull trap right now and needs to test support it also has a very good risk to reward for shorting. If you own bitcoin it might be smart to take some profits and cash into something else (altcoins - fiat ) . another good buy opportunity will arise 5.04% at some point here soon but for now we didn't have enough upward momentum to make the bullish move to 5k. I will keep you guys updates! let me know if you have any questions in the comments below. Thank you!
Bitcoin to bounce back to 23% fib retrace before heading lower?Bitcoin likes to bounce back up to its 23% fib retrace quite often during large dumps, so we could see something like this happen before heading back down
Or we could see a correction from this level further down toward the 76%, then climb back up and build support