Classic Bull Trap!?Look how high the sell volume was on that last drop. BIG MONEY is loading up on shorts IMO!
Be careful!
Bulltrap
Will we ride wave 5 up for 4 days?Similar to last night, the market appears to have hit its cue for a more convincing bottom today. Using the 3918 bottom as the end of Intermediate wave 4 until proven otherwise, we will begin to look at the end of Intermediate wave 5 and Primary wave A inside of this Cycle B.
Based on waves ending in 2BA5, the models agree the most that wave 5 could last 10 days, with the second most agreement at 1, 3, 14, and 32 trading days in length. The quartiles for movement extension off Intermediate wave 3 are 114.64%, 159.625% (median), and 204.63%. These are the blue levels on the chart above and they respectively correlate with 4159.42, 4340.42, 4521.50.
Based on historical waves ending in BA5, the models agree the most on wave 5 lasting 4 days, then 10 days, while the next tie at 1, 2, 3, 11, and 18 days. The quartiles for movement extensions are at 114.64%, 116.69%, 155.66% which brings the values closer to my original forecasts around 4200. Respectively the news levels are 4167.66 and 4324.46 while being the yellow lines above.
Lastly, the valuable while less precise data is based on waves ending in A5. Models agree with 2 days first, then 3 days, 10 days, 4 days, 19 days, and a solid tie at 1, 5, 9 and 11 trading days for potential lengths. The quartiles are slightly less while the third quartile repeats at 155.66%. First quartile is 112.36% (4150.24) and the median extension is only 119.84% (4180.34).
Most of the targets fall below 4200 which keeps the top within 250 points of today’s low. Even 250 points in 5 days or less is a tall feat and unlikely as the next inflation report waits around the corner. Trendline resistance is decreasing quickly and is all below the prior Intermediate wave 3 top. This could insinuate three scenarios. 1) Where I marked the end of Intermediate wave 3 could be the end of Intermediate wave 5 and we are only heading lower from here. 2) The trendline proves a solid resistance and we do not take out the prior high at 4100.51. 3) We briefly break above the trendline resistance forming a bull trap and hitting other levels of resistance between 4150-4250.
If the first case is true, the declines should continue tomorrow, and we will not head toward 4100 this week. The second case could hold true if we slowly move upward without conviction. The third case would likely require larger movements over the next two days to even have a chance at holding true. Regardless we shall see which one occurs.
My initial call of Intermediate wave 5 lasting 5 days does not appear to be an option from the models, even though 3 days for Intermediate wave 4 was not a strong choice I stuck with it. The models had strength at 2 and 3 days in length, but we need to at least get above 4100 which is nearly 160 points from today’s close. That would equate to a 100% retracement of Intermediate wave 3 which is rare. There is a strong pocket of data placing the top between 4150-4180 which is where I will target. Three days is not enough time, so I think it takes at least 4. Four days will be sometime next Monday, which still puts the top before the pre-market release on Tuesday of the latest inflation reading. If the days and levels hold true, we are looking for an average daily gain of 52-60 points per day. We likely wont get those gains each day so some would have to leap beyond that. If these gains do not begin tomorrow we are either delayed or the inflation report WILL NOT be the downward catalyst. Let us see what tomorrow brings!
Elliott Wave indicates another hot inflation reportWe believe we have finished Intermediate wave 3 after an extended Minor 5 and are somewhere into Intermediate wave 4 which should bottom soon. The full wave identity is 152BA4. Based on waves ending in 2BA4. Intermediate 4 will likely last no more than 3 trading days which would end tomorrow. The quartile movement retracements are at 20.04%, 26.20%, and 32.36%. We surpassed the 26.05% level today which was 3995.07. The 32.36% is the third quartile and that would place the bottom around 3970.31. These values are light blue.
Based on waves ending in BA4, most model agreement stands at a length of 1-2 days while 3 days remains likely. Regarding the retracement levels, the first quartile and median are repeated values while the third quartile is at 48.55% for a potential retracement. This would place the bottom around 39.05.20. These values are yellow on the chart
Finally, historic waves ending in only A4 provides many more datapoints, however they may be less concise from the precision provided in the prior two paragraphs. Strongest model agreement places the length at 2 days, followed by 1 day, then 6, 3, 10, and 4 days. Regarding the retracements, quartile values repeat again for the first two while the third quartile is near the 61.8% Fib (low at 3851.85)
Based on these datapoints, the models are leaning to a length of two total days for Intermediate 4 which would mean the bottom has already occurred at the time of writing. I am still leaning on a possibility of 3 days meaning we could see a new low early tomorrow before a likely rise into Intermediate wave 5 for which I will consider tops later.
Early thoughts has Intermediate wave 5 lasting around 5 trading days before we begin the next downturn. Early thoughts to the top should be slightly above current resistance setting up a bull trap and snap back down. These five trading days not including tomorrow (if we achieve a new low for Intermediate wave 4) would begin on Wednesday and end around early next week. This aligns with the Inflation report on Tuesday. If this is the catalyst, inflation likely rose higher than expected and Fed backtracks on cooling down in December which would re-spiral the market for the next month or two.
SPX Final moveI think there's a good chance fat cats will push or at least spike in the area of 4360 in a last short squeeze and a deep desire to show some "not so nasty returns" to wealthy clients. I believe after that will be the beginning of the final move down spiking around 3290. That number is big intersection point of a lot of trends and support. It's also the going back to the first leg down of the Covid crash. On the macro aspect, a lot of bad stuff is converging towards a nasty start Q1 and Q2 of 2023. I think Putin will most likely play a final move to push the world leaders on the edge of WW3 early January in the winter peak. Simultaneously, occidentals corporate and personal credit will run into a wall as liquidity is coming out of the system and earnings coming down mixed with unemployment rise. On the positive side, it will be quick in the grand scheme of time. The 21st century world runs way too fast to be stuck in the same hole for too long. The conclusion is simple. FEDS want to reset the world to where the economy was in 2019 so people get back to work basically fixing their own mistakes. That’s my take on it. In many way, it’s wrong but this has to be done.
Don't miss the greatest buying opportunity. When BTC bottom? Dear community and my faithful followers, if you want to make life-changing decisions and become super rich don't wait lower prices.
It isn't financial advise but I don't want you to make the same mistakes I made some years ago and don't miss the best buying opportunities.
Otherwise you will blame and slap yourselves couple months later not buying #BTC and #altcoin at current levels.
As I mentioned many times in my previous analyses #BTC bottomed at 17.5K in June 2022 and the recent dump to 15.5K is a fake breakdown/ bear trap/ with double bottom like 2021 November top which was a bull trap/ fake breakout/ with double top. My worst case scenario is 13.7-14K but I expect new rally from this point.
As you see on my chart, green rectangles are accumulation zones. Best buying opportunities happens when price moves inside green rectangle and 1st indicator flashes green dot penetrating in a green zone and 2d indicator flashes vertical green line and blue line appears in 25-30 zone. It happened 3 times in the whole BTC history.
If you like my ideas, don't forget to like and follow me please. I will appreciate a lot.
Make or break. Elliot wave count for the capitulation eventUpdate on my previous idea. The C wave up ended up extending into 4 waves. But that has now completed.
It's make or break for the bear market right now. Personally, I don't see us breaking out of the downtrend. But a fake-out is always possible.
Note that this technical analysis is a small part of the bearish case. The wider macro-economic environment bear case speaks for itself.
I'm long volatility via VIX Call options and CFDs.
What do you guys think?
*not financial advice.
Bitcoins bottom is not in yet? Possible H&S formingWhile many investors are hopeful and cheerful about this somewhat positive price movement, be aware.
This could very well morph into a classic head and shoulder pattern. Bitcoin can test the lower blue trendline, to consequently get rejected by the upper trendline making the H&S pattern complete. Also, there are quite some important levels to break for BTC.
BTC is nevertheless still trading in a very important triangle (see upper and lower trendline), take into account that it can breakout in both directions.
Let's see if this H&S will become reality.
SOLANA (SOLUSD) FOUND A BOTTOM...Looking at what Solana has done it is POSSIBLE there is a bottom, which is what this wave count would label and also the breakout of the descending channel would help confirm. I am still wary of the bull trap and falling back down into a deeper hole.. Stay tuned....
BTC weekly falling wedge pattern breakout and retest!!Hi dear community and my faithful followers, let's pay attention to this weekly falling wedge pattern which has broken and retested with false breakdown/bear trap/ and double bottom+ RSI bullish divergence.
At the same time RSI diagonal resistance has been broken and retested as well. On the chart you explained why I think so)).
Read bellow text to understand why I think this is a false breakdown/bear trap/ with double bottom.
The bellow ideas are from my previous analysis coz the circumstances and the situation are the same.
I think the recent dump to 15.5K is a fake breakdown/bear trap/ with double bottom + RSI bullish divergence like 2021 November top, which was a false breakout/bull trap/ with double top+ RSI bear div .
So I think the real bottom was at 17.5K in June like the real top in 2021 April.
I'm considering that BTC has succeeded to break RSI diagonal trendline and now It is making a retest, I think it will hold and send BTC to 28-30K. On chart you can find my explanation why I think RSI diagonal resistance has broken.
ETH Headed to New Lows Unfortunately, $569 PT Primary Chart: 2D Chart of ETH Showing Fibonacci Targets
ETH and most cryptos are moving fast so this post will be brief. But ETH is headed to new lows. It has sliced through every single major retracement of the rally off the June 18, 2022 low.
Squish has remained bearish on BTC and other cryptos despite very brief counter-trend forecasts on occasion to take into account the strength from bear rallies.
ETH is plummeting along with the rest of the crypto market due to a well-publicized liquidity crisis that has seen SBF's net worth fall over 95%.
Further, crypto market cap just broke below a long-term logarithmic TL. That strengthens the bearish outlook for the entire crypto space given the nature of the break.
Supplementary Chart: Total Crypto Market Cap with Long-Term TL
Squish's first price target is the YTD low around $880. The second price target is $569 , which is still conservative. Yes, that sounds extreme, but for those who lost 80% from buying at the peak, consider that buying at $1000 can quickly lead to a -50% to -60% loss. Caution is warranted for anything other than well-managed, disciplined trades for counter-trend bounces, which are actually low probability as @Scheplick discussed today in a livestream (highly recommend his livestream events in the future).
The most aggressive downside target target is $367, which should not be considered unless and until price falls below $569 decisively. This is the measured-move area as well as a Fibonacci 1.00 projection of the first major segment of the decline projected from the peak of the summer's rally.
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Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed.
Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
Trading RSI Divergences LIKE A BOSS (I may have failed you)Get your copy of the Free Heiken Ashi Algo Oscillator
I'm not going to lie. There is WAYYY too much technical stuff to type up in this for you guys. its best if you watch the video. Always Always Always ask questions below. I am always more than happy to show you what's what.
This is some UPPER LEVEL STUFF in this video and i know a lot of you won't fully understand it but i want you to understand what it is that you DON'T KNOW about.
Unless you know these things, you won't know what questions to ask about. So here we go. Let's get into it.
Trading the RSI Divergence like a BOSS
After the RSI Divergence is found:
On the chart: (KEYS)
1 = last HH
2 = current HH
3 = 1st HH Closing Price
4 = Confirmation of candle closing BELOW 1HH close price
5 = Find your targets
6 = Pinpoint any target with multiple confirmations
Steps to take:
1. See last Highest High
2. Draw a line across the last Highest High close price.
3. Confirm second HH is higher price but lower RSI value.
Now wait....
4. Wait for candle to close below price of step (2)
5. Enter SHORT if (Heiken Ashi Candle is closing RED)
6. Your 50ema is Take Profile #1 (Set it up)
7. Your swing high is your stop loss
8. What does the RSI Formula tell you? Is it in the positive? So what! Use the same numbers but trade SHORT. Yep, that what i said, TRADE IT IN REVERSE! This is Take Profit #2
9. Do the Fibonacci trick to confirm which is closer (tp 1 or tp2)
10. Look left for the most recent area of Liquidity. It's a candle with a long wick up or down where price reverses sharply.
11. Scan the Algo for a price level WITH volume. You have found your target. Adjust your take profit and walk away.
AMD's False Breakout above Short-Term TrendlinePrimary Chart: Down Trendline from November 2021 to Present and Several Anchored VWAPs
Recent False Breakout above Short-Term Trendline
After hitting a new low on September 29, 2022, AMD had a brief a rally off the lows . This led to a brief break above a shorter down trendline from August 4, 2022 peaks (light blue down trendline) Now, AMD looks to have faked out the bulls and bottom pickers again. Before the close, AMD's price sunk all the way back to the trendline, perhaps just below depending on how exactly it is drawn, after seeming to push decisively above it. After hours it sunk well below that trendline again with preliminary earnings results that were well under expectations.
Notice the daily candle from October 6, 2022. Some technicians call this a Pinocchio candle or bar. It has a long upper shadow that pushes above a key level, but the shadow being the only part of the candle above the key level by the close of the price bar.
For another example for purposes of comparison, consider AMC's most recent short squeeze (which was smaller than many others in the series of short squeezes it has seen). Here, AMC formed a extremely large Pinocchio bar that effectively signaled the exhaustion and reversal that ensued. That one worked exactly as expected.
A Pinocchio price bar shows up when the bar breaks temporarily above a level of resistance and then falls back below it. It also can appear when the bar breaks temporarily below a key support level, and then reclaims that level by the close of the bar. Essentially, a Pinocchio bar is a failed breakdown or failed breakout that occurs within a single price bar.
Some basics of Pinocchio bars follow below for those unfamiliar with the term:
Martin Pring, a technical expert, writes that these bars "give a false sense of what is really going on."
Pinocchio bars tend to create bull or bear traps depending on the direction the long upper shadow points.
Failed upside breakouts, such as the one shown here on AMD's chart, lock in unwary bulls with a loss by the close of the bar.
Shorts similarly get stopped when intraday bars pierce well below support and then whipsaw back above that support by the close.
In Martin Pring's technical-analysis reference books, he explains that the "false break" that develops is "indicative of exhaustion since the price cannot hold above the strong resistance reflected by the line ." In short, like the character Pinocchio's nose that grows when he lies, the price move beyond the resistance / support ends up being a false move, and the bigger the false move, the bigger the lie.
Just because price is in a severe downtrend does not mean that prices can behave irrationally. How many sharp and powerful bear rallies have occurred so far in this market, especially in beaten down laggards?
For example, price could go down and retest the lows and then rally up to high $70s. Or it could make new lows, and then rally hard back up to a key Fibonacci level, such as the .382 or .618. Until price can start exceeding major swing highs and lows, and its down trendline, it's not a great candidate for bull-trend trading or investing.
Additional Comments and Considerations
Not long ago, stocks like AMD and NVDA were some of the hottest technology stocks traded in the world. They had become veritable market leaders not just in their innovative technology products but also in price leadership. In terms of relative strength, AMD and NVDA both spent plenty of time at the forefront of one of the most powerful bull markets in history (funded by extra liquidity and easy-money policies of central banks) from 2020-2021. But then the cracks started to appear in what otherwise appeared to be some of the most formidable stocks on the planet. Major indices began to roll over not long afterwards.
AMD has not gone unscathed. Its downtrend is not difficult to see with the clearly demarcated lower highs and lower lows. On the Primary Chart, note the orange down trendline that has contained price since November 2021 peaks. VWAPs confirm the view. The dark blue VWAP is anchored to the all-time high from November 30, 2021. It's hard to imagine that there was quite a lot of liquidity on that day, with a number of buyers paying that price at the very top, at $164.46. It can be a viable strategy to strategically buy stocks that have been hitting new 52-week highs showing extraordinary relative strength, but this time, buying at the all time high didn't work out so well for some.
How many times have traders and investors started eagerly buying the dip in this bear? The chart tells the tale. Quite a few major swing lows, with candles having a nice long lower shadow, appear AMD's YTD chart. Each rally may have made a nice trade for nimble countertrend traders, but for investors hoping they caught the low of a pullback, or even better a multi-year low, disappointment ensued.
AMD's days of heroic market leadership along with NVDA continue to be a distant memory as continues to fall to new lows. Should anyone be a knife catcher and hope to have a multi-bagger in 10 years? That's a question for your financial advisor or your own due diligence if you're fundamentally oriented. But from a technical perspective, a lot has to change with regard to the structure before it's safe to buy. Jesse Livermore had a fantastic adage that applies well to this situation, which was recently published by @InvestMate in an Editor's Pick here on TV:
“Don’t take action with a trade until the market, itself, confirms your opinion. Being a little late in a trade is insurance that your opinion is correct. In other words, don’t be an impatient trader.”
Credit and thanks to @InvestMate for reminding everyone of these timeless truths to help in trading and understanding markets.
Bitcoin short from $21800.I think time has come for btc to go down.
i said that btc is going to 28k and then go back down at 9k but 28k for now seems impossible.
What i am expecting is the following.
Btc goes up to 21.8k it forms a bull trap and then slams back down at 15k then from there we should easily see 9k being touched .
Lets see how this unfolds.
betting on rip sellits fantastic that major indices are still managing to find areas of support on the way down. this to me is indicating when we do finally recover it will happen in a reliable manner. its also telling me that these areas are not max pain. to find a bottom permenantly id like to see bullishly diverged oversold levels in high volume. right now signal is still red, and trama sss ma are resistive near top of envelope. these indicators would need to show green candles before spx is a buy again.
BTC, This Feels Like October 2019Just a hunch. The "emergency fed meeting" this week will create some bullish optimism and pull markets out of this tailspin (stock indexes at least, crypto and metals holding), which will in turn pump us out of theses bottoms, but not before complete terror takes the first half of this market as stocks ending the quarter barreling down. But, retail is broke, and institutions are too smart to ride any longs out too long, so I forsee another bull-trap like October 2019.
Totally predicting, just a hunch, like I said.
Biggest Bull Trap in Stock Market HistoryWe just experienced one of the biggest bull traps in stock market history.
A bull trap occurs when price reverses to the upside after a downtrend, such that market participants enter bullish or long positions believing that the downtrend has ended and a new bull run has begun. The trap occurs when price rapidly falls back down taking out the previous low and making new lows, thus continuing the downtrend.
Unfortunately, mostly everyone (except Wall Street market movers) loses money during traps. This is because both bulls and bears get stopped out of their trades as price whipsaws first to the upside, and then back to the downside. A bull trap is visualized on the chart as a candle with a long upper wick, which simply represents buying that was reversed by even more selling.
The above chart is a quarterly chart of the S&P 500. Each candle represents a quarter of a year (3-month period). The quarter that we just finished as of the market close today ended up printing the longest upper wick in the history of the S&P 500 on the quarterly timeframe. The upper wick measured -12.58%, which broke the previous record of -11.43% in 1974.
If we were to clone just the upper wick from the past quarter's candle, it would nearly contain the entire price movement of the S&P 500 in 2007, which puts into context just how significant of a price reversal we have seen this quarter. (The length was log-adjusted to account for inflation).
Here are some reasons why I believe the biggest bull trap just occurred:
Volatility of Volatility (VVIX)
The volatility of volatility index (VVIX) was suppressed too far to the downside and was primed to explode higher.
Back in July, I warned about this when I posted this chart showing that the stochastics of the VVIX were completely bottomed out and volatility of volatility could only go up from here:
When the VVIX explodes higher, traps can occur as volatility of volatility causes large price swings over a relatively short period of time. The VVIX became parabolic over the past 3 months as shown below. Since its bottom in July it has exploded 50% higher.
Monetary Easing
Another cause of this bull trap is monetary easing. Decades of central banks rushing to save falling markets with monetary easing have caused market participants to expect it.
Additionally, when the market began to fall in January 2022, market participants looked back to historical data to gauge when a bottom might occur, but the time period over which most market participants looked was characterized by a falling interest rate environment and monetary easing. Interest rates have not risen as fast as they are now rising in nearly a half-century, which is outside of the timeframe that most market participants considered, or even outside of the time period for which many traders have access to data. For example, the retail trading platform, Robinhood, only allows market participants to see data as far back as 5 years into the past. Without access to enough historical data, market participants simply had no way to know what was happening.
But for monetary easing stretching valuations to historic highs could the stock market even far by such an enormous degree without a sustained relief rally. Indeed, despite all of this selling, we have merely only come down to the peak before the Great Depression in terms of the Shiller PE Ratio.
Commentary
There's no doubt in my mind that we've been in a recession throughout 2022. Few market participants understand that you can have economic decline with record low unemployment. Ironically, it is record low unemployment that causes the economic decline!
When unemployment is too low, this creates a scarcity of labor . During a scarcity of labor, employers hire whoever is willing to work, often suboptimal candidates. These suboptimal candidates are often less productive because they are less skilled, less qualified, and generally need more training. These attributes are resource-intensive for employers and can reduce overall business productivity. In addition to expending more resources to onboard new employees, employers also pay existing employees more due to labor shortages (e.g. through overtime, bonuses, or other incentives to fill the labor shortages). Employees also begin to have stronger bargaining power during labor shortages and demand higher pay. Employers that do not give in and offer to pay employees more can lose their most experienced and productive workers to employers that pay more. This in turn forces highly experienced and productive workers to become less productive as they enter the learning phase of a new job.
When unemployment is too low, economic growth slows. Slowing economic growth coupled with rising inflation is the nemesis of central banks because it renders their main tool, monetary easing, useless. Knowing that inflation was coming central banks, tried to preempt inflation expectations by repeatedly claiming that inflation was transitory. Central banks knew that if the public begins to expect inflation, it could become a self-fulfilling prophecy and get much worse.
This extreme level of inflation was known and expected by the central banks well in advance. While claiming that inflation was transitory, the Fed was already scrambling to fight it behind the scenes. The Fed has actually been fighting inflation for a year and a half now.
As they purchased more and more securities at the front door to "support economy recovery", they were selling more and more securities at the back door (via overnight reverse repurchase agreements). Their behind-the-scenes tightening began in March 2021, a full year before it began publicly tightening.
I'll end with some food for thought.
We just had one of the worst first three quarters of a year in stock market history, despite the Federal Reserve only unwinding just 1.9% of all the stimulus it used to prop up the stock market.
Below is an inferred 322-year look back borrowing contextualized data from the Bank of England.
Imagine if inflation forces the central banks to unwind a lot more...
BITCOIN - Bull trapBitcoin printed long wick, bull trap behavior. Good risk/reward entry on H&S continuation pattern.
IQ has always and will always, get all the praise; but discipline gets the job done ~Mark Ritchie
Lose like a pro and keep trading, or lose like a novice and quit ~Mark Ritchie
BTC's Downward Breakout May Trap BearsChart 1 : BTCUSD's Downward Breakout From Bear-Flag Channel
(Chart 1 also includes a hypothetical price path showing one probable way that price could retest the channel and the downward trendline that has held as resistance since November 2021.
BTC's Downward Breakout from Parallel Channel/b]
On August 19, 2022, BTC fell over -10%, breaking out below its upward sloping bear-flag channel. This parallel channel has contained price since the June 18, 2022, low at $17,592. The breakout below the channel was also decisive with a taller bearish candle that closed very near the low for the day.
As price has continued to rally, volume has dwindled. This represents lack of conviction in the rally when volume does not support each subsequent push higher.
Potential Retest of the Parallel Channel
In weighing the likelihood of a potential retest of the parallel channel that has defined this bear rally, consider the following points:
1. No one can say with certainty whether the bear rally is finished or whether the downtrend is complete. However, the bear rally may not be complete, and bears opening shorts on this breakout may be trapped in the coming days / weeks. Bull and bear traps have been a common occurrence in this bear market. Note that this is a short-term view only—the longer-term price action and trend structure remain quite bearish, and this author does not advocate a long investment strategy at this time in BTC .
2. Even though the macroeconomic environment remains poor with sticky inflation and tightening financial policy likely to continue in the intermediate term or long term, corrective rallies can push higher and longer than most expect. Markets can remain irrational longer than traders can remain solvent. Market research studies have shown that some of the strongest, sharpest rallies in equity markets have occurred during prolonged bear markets. Look no further than the recent rally: the macroeconomic picture has remained relatively unchanged, but equity indices and cryptocurrencies have rallied significantly in the past two months.
3. While the bear rally may constitute an upward correction within the downtrend, consider that the recent decline on August 19, 2022, may simply constitute a correction within a correction. Stated differently, today's decline may represent a retracement within an ongoing bear rally that has already pushed over 40% higher from June 2022 lows. And the ongoing bear rally is itself a larger-degree retracement within a ten-month downtrend.
4. Breakouts above / below trendlines or channels commonly lead to short-term reversals that (at a minimum) retest the breakout point. In this case, a retest of the channel would lead price to the $23,000 to $24,000 range. Like every common price pattern, whipsaws involving retests of breakout points do not always occur.
5. Currently, price has declined to just above the .618 retracement of its entire rally off the June 2022 low near $17,592. This .618 retracement level frequently holds as initial support or resistance when price corrects a recent price move. The zone between the .618 retracement and the .786 retracement should be watched carefully over the coming week. If it holds firmly as support, this could indicate that the decline is part of a correction within an ongoing larger bear rally off June 2022 lows. (Note that the .618 retracement can be important both during corrective rallies within uptrends and corrective bounces within downtrends.)
Supplementary Chart: BTC's Recent Decline May Pause or Reverse at the Zone between the .618 and .786 Retracement Levels
Potential Test of the Ten-Month Down Trendline
Corrective price patterns frequently work havoc on bears and bulls who want to see consistent trendlike price action in one direction or the other. Note that corrective patterns can be upward, as in the current bear rally within BTC's downtrend, or they can be downward, as the In the short term, price has chopped back and forth within the corrective parallel channel shown in Chart 1.
Further, corrections can unfold in complex combinations as Elliott Wave theory teaches. For BTC, the current bear rally is an upward correction. This upward correction And a two-month bear rally could be the first segment of a complex correction—alternatively, it could be the end of the corrective retracement.
The primary chart, Chart 1, shows in blue the major down trendline that has defined this downtrend in BTCUSD. This down trendline has contained price since early November 2021 may still be tagged in the coming days or weeks.
Important levels of support or resistance tend to act as a magnet for price when price approaches them. The retest of the parallel channel could in theory coincide with a test of the down trendline in early September 2022. If this happened, the test would occur at a price of approximately $23,500 to $24,000.
Finally, while many have concluded the final lows were made and others see this as a bear rally, this bear rally still constitutes an upward correction within a downtrend until the weight of the evidence proves otherwise . So this article posits that price could continue the upward correction (retracement) higher or sideways over the next few weeks, and that today's decline might be a downward correction within the corrective bear rally. And any rally may trap bulls with another sharp move lower. After all, markets in equities and crypto have continued to confound bears and bulls alike leaving market makers with bulging pockets full of profits.
NOTE: This article is intended to present a relatively objective view of BTC's current price action and key levels using technical analysis. The author has no open position at the time of publication (August 19-20, 2022) on BTCUSD or BTC-related investment products such as BTC futures , BTC ETFs (BITO) or BTC derivatives.
DISCLAIMER: This post is published solely for educational / entertainment purposes and does not constitute financial advice or an investment recommendation and cannot account for any person's particular financial circumstances. The author would not want other investors / traders to lose money by relying *solely* on this idea rather than doing their own due diligence. Before entering any trade, please evaluate the risks of (i) the instrument / security being traded, (ii) the type of trade and its timeframe, (iii) risks inherent in that type of trade and its time frame, (iv) the inherent risks of shorting securities (presenting unlimited risk without hard stops in place), (v) the inherent risks of trading options, leveraged ETFs, and cryptocurrencies, and (vi) all financial risks arising each person's personal financial circumstances.
CME:BTC1!
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paytm false breakout?if you look closely the stock, yes the stock broke the trend line on 29th of aug, but its recovering and coming back to its support, theres a green candle too, lets see what happens on Monday. check out the volume too. plus have look on MACD indicator, its strategy telling to go up.
CSC-HARSI with Buy SEll alerts and (Name the next one)Welcome, welcome.
In today's video I have some way for you all to get involved in a little bit of the development of this indicator. As you read below you'll be able to do me a favor and leave your comments the topic at the bottom where you can name the next indicator tied to the CSC-HARSI 2022.
So what would you call it?
Read on......
Once again we've returned to the coffee shop and I have a bit of an i-told-you-so video. Sorry this video goes on a lot longer than I thought it would but I had to bring up a few points and I got a little excited telling you guys about some of the new indications and alerts on the CSC-HARSI 2022.
The next update will include indications and alerts that tell you when you have entered into a range when you have broken up out of a range when you have a range break down it will also include buy and sell indications as well as when you should exit your long trade or exit your short trade.
All that being said you shouldn't use this tool as the be-all end-all for your entries and exits because you will still need to understand a little bit something about price action. While the indicator itself will work very well at telling you when to get in and out of Trades whether you're long or short the combined indicator of the mass effect moving average will help you understand when the trade you're about to enter into before a long for example is a price manipulation and at which point you don't want to get into that trade so I'm doing my best to get you that information and give you that indicator as well but it's going to be a little time before that Mass Effect moving average is complete.
However on today's idea about the CSC-HARSI 2022, I wanted to drop a quick video and tell you about some of the upcoming changes so that you guys can come back and give you some ideas and comments below about anything that you're looking for or if you have any guidance on when and how things should be clearly defined in the layout.
The reason I bring up these particular points is because after this particular update I will not be updating it unless I need to keep it current to Pine script coding. I simply don't want to over code this indicator was too many alerts and indications and plots and images and stuff like that this should work on this next release well enough on its own while though I do have another idea for another script which you can use along with the CSE hard see if you want and end up having both of them in the bottom of your panel if you like but that 12 is going to take at least a few weeks ago.
Since it will be working as a brother to the CSC-HARSI 2022, I'd like to hear back from you guys on what I should name it.
WE ARE STILL IN BEAR MARKET, REMEMBER!Bitcoin has been following and have not broken through this blue trend line since April. Right now we see a lot of Doji candles, and candles with long wicks, that tells me there is confusion in the market, and we are not sure where BTC could go. As well, we have the 55EMA acting as major resistance. For me personally, thats 3 easy and simple indicators telling me we are trying and we cant, i can see BTC losing fuel soon, probably next 14 days we could eventually see btc under 20k, confirming the bull trap, and possibly make new lows this year.
