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Bulltrap

betting on rip sellits fantastic that major indices are still managing to find areas of support on the way down. this to me is indicating when we do finally recover it will happen in a reliable manner. its also telling me that these areas are not max pain. to find a bottom permenantly id like to see bullishly diverged oversold levels in high volume. right now signal is still red, and trama sss ma are resistive near top of envelope. these indicators would need to show green candles before spx is a buy again.
SP:SPXShort
by cerealpatterns
BTC, This Feels Like October 2019Just a hunch. The "emergency fed meeting" this week will create some bullish optimism and pull markets out of this tailspin (stock indexes at least, crypto and metals holding), which will in turn pump us out of theses bottoms, but not before complete terror takes the first half of this market as stocks ending the quarter barreling down. But, retail is broke, and institutions are too smart to ride any longs out too long, so I forsee another bull-trap like October 2019. Totally predicting, just a hunch, like I said.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by GunMoney
Biggest Bull Trap in Stock Market HistoryWe just experienced one of the biggest bull traps in stock market history. A bull trap occurs when price reverses to the upside after a downtrend, such that market participants enter bullish or long positions believing that the downtrend has ended and a new bull run has begun. The trap occurs when price rapidly falls back down taking out the previous low and making new lows, thus continuing the downtrend. Unfortunately, mostly everyone (except Wall Street market movers) loses money during traps. This is because both bulls and bears get stopped out of their trades as price whipsaws first to the upside, and then back to the downside. A bull trap is visualized on the chart as a candle with a long upper wick, which simply represents buying that was reversed by even more selling. The above chart is a quarterly chart of the S&P 500. Each candle represents a quarter of a year (3-month period). The quarter that we just finished as of the market close today ended up printing the longest upper wick in the history of the S&P 500 on the quarterly timeframe. The upper wick measured -12.58%, which broke the previous record of -11.43% in 1974. If we were to clone just the upper wick from the past quarter's candle, it would nearly contain the entire price movement of the S&P 500 in 2007, which puts into context just how significant of a price reversal we have seen this quarter. (The length was log-adjusted to account for inflation). Here are some reasons why I believe the biggest bull trap just occurred: Volatility of Volatility (VVIX) The volatility of volatility index (VVIX) was suppressed too far to the downside and was primed to explode higher. Back in July, I warned about this when I posted this chart showing that the stochastics of the VVIX were completely bottomed out and volatility of volatility could only go up from here: When the VVIX explodes higher, traps can occur as volatility of volatility causes large price swings over a relatively short period of time. The VVIX became parabolic over the past 3 months as shown below. Since its bottom in July it has exploded 50% higher. Monetary Easing Another cause of this bull trap is monetary easing. Decades of central banks rushing to save falling markets with monetary easing have caused market participants to expect it. Additionally, when the market began to fall in January 2022, market participants looked back to historical data to gauge when a bottom might occur, but the time period over which most market participants looked was characterized by a falling interest rate environment and monetary easing. Interest rates have not risen as fast as they are now rising in nearly a half-century, which is outside of the timeframe that most market participants considered, or even outside of the time period for which many traders have access to data. For example, the retail trading platform, Robinhood, only allows market participants to see data as far back as 5 years into the past. Without access to enough historical data, market participants simply had no way to know what was happening. But for monetary easing stretching valuations to historic highs could the stock market even far by such an enormous degree without a sustained relief rally. Indeed, despite all of this selling, we have merely only come down to the peak before the Great Depression in terms of the Shiller PE Ratio. Commentary There's no doubt in my mind that we've been in a recession throughout 2022. Few market participants understand that you can have economic decline with record low unemployment. Ironically, it is record low unemployment that causes the economic decline! When unemployment is too low, this creates a scarcity of labor . During a scarcity of labor, employers hire whoever is willing to work, often suboptimal candidates. These suboptimal candidates are often less productive because they are less skilled, less qualified, and generally need more training. These attributes are resource-intensive for employers and can reduce overall business productivity. In addition to expending more resources to onboard new employees, employers also pay existing employees more due to labor shortages (e.g. through overtime, bonuses, or other incentives to fill the labor shortages). Employees also begin to have stronger bargaining power during labor shortages and demand higher pay. Employers that do not give in and offer to pay employees more can lose their most experienced and productive workers to employers that pay more. This in turn forces highly experienced and productive workers to become less productive as they enter the learning phase of a new job. When unemployment is too low, economic growth slows. Slowing economic growth coupled with rising inflation is the nemesis of central banks because it renders their main tool, monetary easing, useless. Knowing that inflation was coming central banks, tried to preempt inflation expectations by repeatedly claiming that inflation was transitory. Central banks knew that if the public begins to expect inflation, it could become a self-fulfilling prophecy and get much worse. This extreme level of inflation was known and expected by the central banks well in advance. While claiming that inflation was transitory, the Fed was already scrambling to fight it behind the scenes. The Fed has actually been fighting inflation for a year and a half now. As they purchased more and more securities at the front door to "support economy recovery", they were selling more and more securities at the back door (via overnight reverse repurchase agreements). Their behind-the-scenes tightening began in March 2021, a full year before it began publicly tightening. I'll end with some food for thought. We just had one of the worst first three quarters of a year in stock market history, despite the Federal Reserve only unwinding just 1.9% of all the stimulus it used to prop up the stock market. Below is an inferred 322-year look back borrowing contextualized data from the Bank of England. Imagine if inflation forces the central banks to unwind a lot more...
SP:SPX
by SpyMasterTrades
20
BTC's Downward Breakout May Trap BearsChart 1 : BTCUSD's Downward Breakout From Bear-Flag Channel (Chart 1 also includes a hypothetical price path showing one probable way that price could retest the channel and the downward trendline that has held as resistance since November 2021. BTC's Downward Breakout from Parallel Channel/b] On August 19, 2022, BTC fell over -10%, breaking out below its upward sloping bear-flag channel. This parallel channel has contained price since the June 18, 2022, low at $17,592. The breakout below the channel was also decisive with a taller bearish candle that closed very near the low for the day. As price has continued to rally, volume has dwindled. This represents lack of conviction in the rally when volume does not support each subsequent push higher. Potential Retest of the Parallel Channel In weighing the likelihood of a potential retest of the parallel channel that has defined this bear rally, consider the following points: 1. No one can say with certainty whether the bear rally is finished or whether the downtrend is complete. However, the bear rally may not be complete, and bears opening shorts on this breakout may be trapped in the coming days / weeks. Bull and bear traps have been a common occurrence in this bear market. Note that this is a short-term view only—the longer-term price action and trend structure remain quite bearish, and this author does not advocate a long investment strategy at this time in BTC . 2. Even though the macroeconomic environment remains poor with sticky inflation and tightening financial policy likely to continue in the intermediate term or long term, corrective rallies can push higher and longer than most expect. Markets can remain irrational longer than traders can remain solvent. Market research studies have shown that some of the strongest, sharpest rallies in equity markets have occurred during prolonged bear markets. Look no further than the recent rally: the macroeconomic picture has remained relatively unchanged, but equity indices and cryptocurrencies have rallied significantly in the past two months. 3. While the bear rally may constitute an upward correction within the downtrend, consider that the recent decline on August 19, 2022, may simply constitute a correction within a correction. Stated differently, today's decline may represent a retracement within an ongoing bear rally that has already pushed over 40% higher from June 2022 lows. And the ongoing bear rally is itself a larger-degree retracement within a ten-month downtrend. 4. Breakouts above / below trendlines or channels commonly lead to short-term reversals that (at a minimum) retest the breakout point. In this case, a retest of the channel would lead price to the $23,000 to $24,000 range. Like every common price pattern, whipsaws involving retests of breakout points do not always occur. 5. Currently, price has declined to just above the .618 retracement of its entire rally off the June 2022 low near $17,592. This .618 retracement level frequently holds as initial support or resistance when price corrects a recent price move. The zone between the .618 retracement and the .786 retracement should be watched carefully over the coming week. If it holds firmly as support, this could indicate that the decline is part of a correction within an ongoing larger bear rally off June 2022 lows. (Note that the .618 retracement can be important both during corrective rallies within uptrends and corrective bounces within downtrends.) Supplementary Chart: BTC's Recent Decline May Pause or Reverse at the Zone between the .618 and .786 Retracement Levels Potential Test of the Ten-Month Down Trendline Corrective price patterns frequently work havoc on bears and bulls who want to see consistent trendlike price action in one direction or the other. Note that corrective patterns can be upward, as in the current bear rally within BTC's downtrend, or they can be downward, as the In the short term, price has chopped back and forth within the corrective parallel channel shown in Chart 1. Further, corrections can unfold in complex combinations as Elliott Wave theory teaches. For BTC, the current bear rally is an upward correction. This upward correction And a two-month bear rally could be the first segment of a complex correction—alternatively, it could be the end of the corrective retracement. The primary chart, Chart 1, shows in blue the major down trendline that has defined this downtrend in BTCUSD. This down trendline has contained price since early November 2021 may still be tagged in the coming days or weeks. Important levels of support or resistance tend to act as a magnet for price when price approaches them. The retest of the parallel channel could in theory coincide with a test of the down trendline in early September 2022. If this happened, the test would occur at a price of approximately $23,500 to $24,000. Finally, while many have concluded the final lows were made and others see this as a bear rally, this bear rally still constitutes an upward correction within a downtrend until the weight of the evidence proves otherwise . So this article posits that price could continue the upward correction (retracement) higher or sideways over the next few weeks, and that today's decline might be a downward correction within the corrective bear rally. And any rally may trap bulls with another sharp move lower. After all, markets in equities and crypto have continued to confound bears and bulls alike leaving market makers with bulging pockets full of profits. NOTE: This article is intended to present a relatively objective view of BTC's current price action and key levels using technical analysis. The author has no open position at the time of publication (August 19-20, 2022) on BTCUSD or BTC-related investment products such as BTC futures , BTC ETFs (BITO) or BTC derivatives. DISCLAIMER: This post is published solely for educational / entertainment purposes and does not constitute financial advice or an investment recommendation and cannot account for any person's particular financial circumstances. The author would not want other investors / traders to lose money by relying *solely* on this idea rather than doing their own due diligence. Before entering any trade, please evaluate the risks of (i) the instrument / security being traded, (ii) the type of trade and its timeframe, (iii) risks inherent in that type of trade and its time frame, (iv) the inherent risks of shorting securities (presenting unlimited risk without hard stops in place), (v) the inherent risks of trading options, leveraged ETFs, and cryptocurrencies, and (vi) all financial risks arising each person's personal financial circumstances. CME:BTC1! BITSTAMP:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT FTX:BITOUSD SP:SPX OANDA:SPX500USD VANTAGE:SP500
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by SquishTrade
12
CSC-HARSI with Buy SEll alerts and (Name the next one)Welcome, welcome. In today's video I have some way for you all to get involved in a little bit of the development of this indicator. As you read below you'll be able to do me a favor and leave your comments the topic at the bottom where you can name the next indicator tied to the CSC-HARSI 2022. So what would you call it? Read on...... Once again we've returned to the coffee shop and I have a bit of an i-told-you-so video. Sorry this video goes on a lot longer than I thought it would but I had to bring up a few points and I got a little excited telling you guys about some of the new indications and alerts on the CSC-HARSI 2022. The next update will include indications and alerts that tell you when you have entered into a range when you have broken up out of a range when you have a range break down it will also include buy and sell indications as well as when you should exit your long trade or exit your short trade. All that being said you shouldn't use this tool as the be-all end-all for your entries and exits because you will still need to understand a little bit something about price action. While the indicator itself will work very well at telling you when to get in and out of Trades whether you're long or short the combined indicator of the mass effect moving average will help you understand when the trade you're about to enter into before a long for example is a price manipulation and at which point you don't want to get into that trade so I'm doing my best to get you that information and give you that indicator as well but it's going to be a little time before that Mass Effect moving average is complete. However on today's idea about the CSC-HARSI 2022, I wanted to drop a quick video and tell you about some of the upcoming changes so that you guys can come back and give you some ideas and comments below about anything that you're looking for or if you have any guidance on when and how things should be clearly defined in the layout. The reason I bring up these particular points is because after this particular update I will not be updating it unless I need to keep it current to Pine script coding. I simply don't want to over code this indicator was too many alerts and indications and plots and images and stuff like that this should work on this next release well enough on its own while though I do have another idea for another script which you can use along with the CSE hard see if you want and end up having both of them in the bottom of your panel if you like but that 12 is going to take at least a few weeks ago. Since it will be working as a brother to the CSC-HARSI 2022, I'd like to hear back from you guys on what I should name it.
by CoffeeshopCrypto
WE ARE STILL IN BEAR MARKET, REMEMBER!Bitcoin has been following and have not broken through this blue trend line since April. Right now we see a lot of Doji candles, and candles with long wicks, that tells me there is confusion in the market, and we are not sure where BTC could go. As well, we have the 55EMA acting as major resistance. For me personally, thats 3 easy and simple indicators telling me we are trying and we cant, i can see BTC losing fuel soon, probably next 14 days we could eventually see btc under 20k, confirming the bull trap, and possibly make new lows this year.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by Zeze_Izquierdo
2
SPY bulltrap again bef plunge;BO of 400/380 may see 350/320/280This is a SPY weekly chart after the Friday FED speech signaling continued hawkishness till inflation drops to 2%. Spy has a history of making bulltraps (higher highs on this weekly chart) before plunging as seen in my several boxes. It was rejected by the black downtrend line from the 476.44 ATH (see black falling wedge) & also rejected by the horizontal neckline of the H&S from top at around 330. BULLISH SCENARIO: If 362.17 June low is the bottom for this ABC correction, then SPY should make a higher low at either the psychological 400 or 380 (previous H&S destination & also the maximum Fib 0.786 retracement of the latest June rally). From here a new ATH is coming in 4Q2022 when inflation drops lower that 4% & the FED pivots. BEARISH CASE: SPY will not hold the 362.17 low if 400 & 380 fails. The final targets of this ABC correction may be the ff: *350 which is the 1.618 FIB EXT of this ABC, the 0.50 retracement from pandemic low to ATH *320 which is the 2.0 FIB EXT of ABC, the 0.618 retracement from pandemic to ATH & also near the 0.382 retracement from 2009 bottom to ATH *280 which is the 2.618 FIB EXT of ABC, the 0.786 retracement from pandemic low to ATH & also near the 0.5 retracement from 2009 Bottom to ATH These estimates should be considered as +/- zones & not exact levels. The pandemic low of 211.11 is not likely to be retested. Not trading advice
AMEX:SPYShort
by xtremerider8
Bull Trap BTC/USDT !???Is the price of BTC/USD going up? YES but, is it rising strongly? NO Possibly the price is going to give another bearish trend in the short - medium term since historically the last months after the post-halving year are bearish and more September. Besides, it is presenting a correction pattern and the correction patterns do not present strength. We'll see what happens at the end of the year It is also possibly going to see a recession in the remainder of the year and what falls the most are high-risk investments such as technology companies (Index: Nasdaq TVC:NDQ ) and also BTC INDEX:BTCUSD is a high-risk investment. Below I leave you an idea that I shared of the S&P 500 SP:SPX Here all the last months of the next year post-halving: MA and EMA 200 1 day:
Short
by Ed_Ale
SPY Trade Idea (BULL TRAP)Here Im using the trend based fib ext. SPY is currently at the June highs and the 1.618 Fib level. Seeing deviation with price making a higher high and the RSI making a lower low on the 4HR. (Bearish) In June fear turned to euphoria in an instant. Talks about the bear market being over started, just like it is now. Spy fell out of an ascending channel after initially getting rejected from the 1.618. (Bearish) In June it took about a week to finally sell off and bull market talks faded in the. background. I think we see a similar story in the next few days and weeks. If you're bullish i would be patient, things dont go up in a straight line. The RSI on the daily is at levels not seen since March. VIX is on a strong support which has generally marked local tops. If you notice there has been 3 times we previously touched this support and every time has been a sell signal. Same goes with the top resistance, every time we touched resistance it marked a local bottom in the stock market as you can see with the red and green arrows. In the coming weeks I am bearish on SPY and anticipate a retest of 390, a break below that and the next level is 380. However coming off one of the best months in a long time the medium to long term future looks bright for the stock market. We look to be forming a possible inverse head and shoulders pattern on higher time frames and if this is the case we should see strong support in the 380-390 range. (This is where Im swinging long if the market gives us these levels). I would also like to see VIX at resistance to further confirm the trade. I wouldn't be surprised if VIX broke out of this wedge, and give us the 40+ everyone has been calling for which if in fact we do reach those levels on VIX i think that would be the max opportunity to go long on the market. We will cross that bridge when/if we get there. Ill soon be posting ideas on individual stocks, let me know if you guys agree or disagree!
AMEX:SPY
by anamaly
Is the S&P 500 DOWNTREND OVER? The price is moving according to my last analysis on July 29th of the S&P 500 Futures. The market is taking a breath from last week, yesterday it closed more or less at that support area of $4100. We still have some important earnings incoming, I stick with my point that we can use the momentum to get to $4200 or even higher. However, in order to break this DOWNTREND, we need to get above $4500 and maintain. I'm not going to spend time talking about breaking the resistance of $4500 , as I see it extremely unlikely to happen. During the next few days, the market can decline till $3950 support , in order to get some volume and make new higher highs around $4200 . The economic environment is bearish for the stock market, unless the FED decides to decrease interest rates and start printing again, avoiding fighting inflation, destroying the currency as a result. The scenario that I think is going to happen is that we will continue the downtrend that started in the beginning of the year 2022. From my humble opinion, this was just one more rally in a bear market, maybe a bull trap that can last a few weeks more. I see the market between a range of $2800-$3500 till the end of the year, unless something big happens and reverses the downtrend. Honestly, I think they are just trying to keep the market up the longer they can, in order to sell their balance sheet at higher prices, starting from September. This thing can reverse in every moment, or it could continue to be bullish the next trading sessions. Better wait to trade to the downside till some clear reversal appears . Good luck with your investments. Earnings Releases to keep an eye on: - Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Occidental (OXY), BP (BP) - AMD (AMD) - Starbucks (SBUX) - Caterpillar (CAT) - PayPal (PYPL) - Gilead (GILD) - Airbnb (ABNB) - Marriott (MAR) - Uber (UBER) - Electronic Arts (EA) - Waste Connections (WCN) - Illinois Tool Works (ITW) - Cummins (CMI) - IDEXX (IDXX)
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by GenadiYankov
8
01-AUG-2022 - Ethereum - Quo Vadis?#Ethereum is in very strange place now. Is it #bull #trap now, or bullish trend? There is: price level $1729 (red horizontal line), which was price support level at dumps in 2021 and in May-2022 downtrend line since Apr-2022 (red line), which leaded the price in downtrend so far Fibo price level 0.236 at price $1821 (range between ATH in 11-2021 and bottom 06-2022) Will this push the price down? If price crosses all above mentioned levels ... would #bessa be over? Similar #bulltrap in 2018 gave +130% since bottom. We had now +100% since bottom in June 2022.
INDEX:ETHUSDShort
by tgreg
Bitcoin uptrend or yet another Bull Trap on Bitcoin. IMOBitcoin has broken above a previous resistance line. Although we are not in the clear, my outlook is still bearish. I am still looking for the $9K bottom. Hopefully I am wrong and we have a picture perfect scenario happen. The sad fact is life doesn't always have a picture perfect ending. I wish it did for my sake. The charts show a nice sign of relief incoming. The market attempting to set higher highs and lower lows. That doesn't seem like a great sign but it is a sign that the bottom is getting closer to being found. We haven't found a clear bottom unless we conclude this cycle with $17,500 as that bottom. In which case I could be considered wrong. I wouldn't complain.
by Cryptocrash1
Bitcoin statusHI guyz If we take a look at the Bitcoin situation in the long-term timeline, we may see short-term bullish micro-waves. From my point of view, this will be a bull trap. I expect Bitcoin to drop further to the 16,000-15,000 range But not so soon. So I still believe in the fall of Bitcoin. In the short term, we can see a correction from the range of 21600 to 21400 upwards.This correction can push the price up to the 22800 range. But if there is no correction, the price can continue to fall up to the range of 21350 and perform its correction up to the range of 20700. In this case, the price will drop to 18,000 after the correction. myself expect an upward movement from 21700 to 22800 and I will enter a heavy selling position compared to the analysis of the above figure.
by aliasadii
UPDATE #4 BTC/USD bull trap continuation - whale liquidityThis is update # 4 of series to provide an outlook of the trap that took place. Whales are continuing to grab people on lower time frames and now we are at a critical area. If BTC breaks 21900. Whales have confirmed trend to the downside and going to be testing 20900. Good luck everyone this is not a drill. you are in very bad territory if you don't know what you are doing and don't have a plan of action. Drop a boost if you like the content. I see potential in the start of the next month but short term within end of this week and start of the next it looks ugly. Nothing I say is financial advice and/or should be taken as such. I am just a nobody and you should not take anything I say/write into any consideration, as I am dumb as a tack.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Evil_Chatgpt
6
BTC/USD continues down, clearly a bull trap - good luck fellasThis is a continuation of my last post, trap has been activated. (wicks play tricks) Drop a boost if you like the content. I see potential in the start of the next month but short term within end of this week and start of the next it looks ugly. Nothing I say is financial advice and/or should be taken as such. I am just a nobody and you should not take anything I say/write into any consideration, as I am dumb as a tack.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Evil_Chatgpt