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Bulltrap

Look Out for Bull Trap!Looking at weekly QQQ: In the last recession, after confirming it via Sep 2 EMA crossing, we saw within 2 months of that crossing a very nice bull rally week. But it's a trap! We can see it was a trap by waiting for the week to play out & notice that BBPower was very weak, as shown via yellow circles. The bulls now are fatigued from the bears & want to get over this recession already, but make sure you confirm bull momentum is there before going back in, whether you are getting out of shorting via SQQQ or going long with TQQQ. We recently confirmed this recession from the Jun 6 EMA crossing, so be patient.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by roelds
4
bull trap to 22.3k, 200 WMA, weekly close in 4 hoursYesterday I gained 300$ from shorting BNB, today I lost 535$, I don't know anymore. I short at absolute of absolute bottoms, then long absolute of absolute tops, this comes from having an idea that X rejects at price Y, and from reaching price Y, I invalidate my trade then follow with opposite, while my previous wasn't invalidated We either reject from here and first weekly close below 200 WMA, or we go up and close above it, scam pump, before retesting 20k. RSI says we need correction. I don't know, I don't know, I don't know anymore. Im confused. I am LONG till 22k, then opening a short. Who joins me!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Heartskull
1
Update on Previous ideas. Bull TrapPrice is not showing bullish strength. THERE IS NO CONTINUATION IN bullish momentum and price is facing massive rejections from top of range. Do remember, what does achieves MAX PAIN ? Longs are trapped and by using them market would go down. Longs want 37k or more but BTC is not even breaking 32k. Majority like myself were hoping after seeing couple of pump for big breakout but doesn't seem like it. I am being honest and telling you what i know. LONGS are trapped. SHORTS are having a field day and LONGS are the ones who would suffer MAX DAMAGE. Therefore, be warned long. PLEASE NOTE, i am not saying that be short but have tight STOP LOSSES for now. Not a financial advice. TRADE at your own risk.
B
by StunnerStock
The Bull Case Inside the Overall Bear MarketI had the markets in wave 1532C, but a few things happened late or not at all. In fact, this whole downturn in January was 2 months sooner than I had initially forecasting. Timing the market is hard, and I not perfect. Learning from my mistakes and asking what could have happened or where did I go wrong is what makes me better at all of this. I have missed three calls so far so I began to ask why? I initially called wave A down prematurely. Instead of calling out the bottom of A, I found what I then thought was the bottom of wave 3 inside of A. Then, I misidentified the end of B, but it happens. I was wrong on A, but for good reason. A would have been a 5 wave pattern down, followed by a 3-wave pattern upward for wave B. I found the 5 waves and 3 waves so I asked what else could this be? The economy is not getting better as long as fuel prices rise. These prices will continue to elevate the price of everything until it is addressed. I had us coming out of this mess a week ago, but the economy and Fed never made sense to me. I assumed it would be a quick end to the war as well. I have been wrong, but why? I identified 5 waves down but that is because we were in wave 1 of wave A. What the 3 waves for my wave B call was actually the 3 waves of a wave 2 inside of wave A. Everything stemmed from my identification of the COVID crash in March 2020. I marked that anomaly as the wrong wave structure but never felt right about it. I have now re-marked the waves in the chart above and will eventually have all of the statistics to test my newest theory. I had us about to wrap up Cycle wave 2 inside of Supercycle wave 3. I no longer believe we are that far along. I still have us in Sub-Millennial wave 1 (began June 1877) and Grand Supercycle wave 5 which began March 2009. However, I only have the market in Supercycle wave 2 and Cycle wave A—-both beginning in January this year. I further have us in Primary wave 4 which should end soon and we will likely continue our downward movement below the prior low of 3810.32 before then end of June. This would finally end Cycle wave A. Next step is a 3-wave structure upward over the next 1-2 months which could top between 4400-4900. I will have more details soon. We will then find the new bottom in a 5-wave downward pattern which will complete Cycle wave C and Supercycle wave 2. This would likely occur 3-5 months after it begins with a low between 3000-3300. This structure fits much more inline with the economic outlook and fuel prices. The new Congress sits in January in the US as well. As long as Congress and the White House are controlled by differing parties, lopsided legislation capable of harming half the country should not pass. Fuel prices will only get better with unilateral action from the White House, some sort of bi-partisanship, or a majority strong enough to override a veto (this longshot is doubtful, but so were the Bengals to make it to the Super Bowl). If this structure is correct, the first thing to occur will be a break to the downside within the next 3-5 trading days at the latest. If this structure is wrong, we will move above 4800 before we go below 4000 and I will once again ask why en route to the next theory.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
1
Massive Bull Trap - Nasdaq 100 IndexThe 2022 March low is a massive bull trap, signaled by trend breaks and a monthly RSI divergence. The setup here reminds me of 1987. Check out the Sqzme DIX index to see the balance of OTC transactions (Over-The-Counter trades, conducted by hedge funds, banks etc). DIX indicates a bull trap to a scale not seen in over 10 years. Heavy OTC buy-side initiation occurred during the 2022 Feb-March dip, similar to after the Covid low. DIX has now fallen back to historical averages, without any equivalent sell-side activity occurring. This indicates that a significant number of OTC customers are now trapped in losing positions.
TVC:NDQShort
by ValkyrieBlue
BTC Relief into $35,000 range ( support/ resistance corridor )BTC acting as expected. The current support line is very strong that stretches through 2021 June-July. The current corridor is formed in 30,000 to 35,000 with some up or downticks below. General sentiment stands to hold well- relief for markets. This comes due to many macro indicators and some chain-data suggestions. As with the previous TA, we should validate the current play with: - DXY ( Dollar Strenght Average ) is declining, indicating that the dollar will weaken. - BTC shorts liquidated. - SP500, NASDAQ relief. (BTC seems to have delayed correlation) - Chain-Data buy signals popping up. - Institutional public communication supporting BTC. The current small move can't draw a decisive conclusion for a trade. The levels need first to be defined with multi-day movement. Close eye on the DXY, BTC shorts/ longs, Stocks, chain data, and institutional communication. Caution: The current setup can become a Bull trap. We had a similar pattern in June -July 2021 where the bulls escaped the corridor and led the market to new ATH. However, this time the sentiment is weaker. People are scared and often make irrational decisions based on some market moves - this is something the institutions are ready to exploit. The fear is that once relief starts and emotions start to jump, we might see another dump caused by the institutional exit. Such even on large scale will cause further downturn to the next support line around Thanks, 0xTed
by OxTed
Marvell Technology appears to have set a bull trapBased on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on May 27, 2022 with a closing price of 59.8. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 59.55 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 1.956% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 3.897% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 6.432% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 50 trading bars after the signal. A 0.4% decline must occur over the next 50 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 8 trading bars; half occur within 22 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 43 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NASDAQ:MRVLShort
by StockSignaler
Did Bitcoin BLOW It's Chances?As we've discussed in detail over our last few analysis episodes here on TradingView, Bitcoin did in fact look nice. All was strongly laid up for a big pump, but rather than graciously bouncing off the trampoline like an alpha, it slipped and broke its teeth and leg. Now, after the baby pool has reddened by blood, Bitcoin is back on the trampoline for a second try. This time it may very well get a clean jump, yet with a broken leg chances are it'll be a clumsy dive. Why then is that? It's found good support no matter how we measure, whether we focus on the parallel channel or the expanding triangle. A megaphone through which it can shout out its pain. So why the pessimism? There are a few reasons for this. The main problem spells R-S-I. Late January we got ourselves a nice lower bullish red buy signal. This has now been stopped out as it closed >1% below the signal level. What this typically means ... as in with remarkable statistical reliability ... is that the price will move down within the upcoming <50 candles, as in 50 weeks in this case - or, let us just call it a year. This does by no account mean the price cannot or will not move higher before giving up and rolling over. Given that Bitcoin's found good support right at two separate technical key levels ... and given how immaculately weak the Bitcoin Fear & Greed index has been for most of the year (and not to mention the last couple of weeks!), the angry bears should have run out of enough steam for now to justify at least a minor pump, relief rally, bull trap ... call it whatever you want! Upon a pump there are a few prime zones at which Bitcoin may run into particular technical difficulties in overcoming them. First and foremost we have $34,000-$35,200. Next up is the $39,750-$40,250 zone - both of which coincide with the 382 and 618 fibs respectively, and both of which will have to push through the EMA50, -100 and -200 bands respectively. After that comes the real trouble-maker: $44,500-$48,000. Not only does this level hold good historical merit, a break of this pivotal top would break the bearish curse of lower lows and lower highs. It'd be the first time since the November peak since Bitcoin has taken out a new higher pivot high. That'd certainly be something to celebra and only then would we have good reason to become truly bullish again. But don't be fooled, for the way over there is much longer than first seems. It's more of a mirage than anything palpable. For these reasons, and unless new data is given along the way to alter the technical landscape, I will use any pump to release my holdings in anticipation of steep and sustained moves to the downside. /Long Life Trading
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by LongLifeTrading
2
Bitcoin to Test $26.8k SupportBitcoin's correction has been swift, breaking down cleanly through $30k and finding support ~$27k. Strong rejection on 6hr chart at 20 EMA (approx $31k) Expecting some sideways action and retest of that support given the rapid connection of the crypto total market cap and broader economic headwinds. CPI (consumer inflation) remains extremely high, it fell within expectations (finally). Unfortunately PPI (producer inflation) came in higher than expected and increased 11% year over year. The Fed's approach with another 50 bps rate hike is imminent in June as they look at lagging economic indicators that reflect a "healthy" economy with low unemployment. MACD reflecting bullish divergence, which is likely setting up a bull trap, as market bearish fundamentals remain firmly in place. While a relief rally is likely following the $26.8k test, the markets are not reversing so long as the Fed remains hawkish as it attempts to rein inflation in. Price action tending to move in $3k chunks, so expecting a bounce from $27k back to $33k seems likely. If BTC continues its bear market rally past $33k, look for probable rejection at $36k.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by R0MM3LL
ALGOUSDT|Bull trap or Pullback? Ending Diagonal Wave ProjectionPrice action and chart pattern trading setup > Falling Wedge Ending Diagonal - Bull Trap or Pullback? > Entry @ downtrend line breakout of wave 2 and wave 4 or SMA50 zone > Stoploss @ the lowest minor wave iii/v estimated position - downside limited for final wave 5 -10 - 15% and can be truncated > 1st target at wave 4 position for short term trade and wave 2 position for the medium term. SMA200 is the key dynamic resistance > RRR: 2:1 for short term and 3:1 for medium term Always trade with affordable risk and respect your stoploss.
by dukeposh