Did Bitcoin BLOW It's Chances?As we've discussed in detail over our last few analysis episodes here on TradingView, Bitcoin did in fact look nice. All was strongly laid up for a big pump, but rather than graciously bouncing off the trampoline like an alpha, it slipped and broke its teeth and leg.
Now, after the baby pool has reddened by blood, Bitcoin is back on the trampoline for a second try. This time it may very well get a clean jump, yet with a broken leg chances are it'll be a clumsy dive.
Why then is that? It's found good support no matter how we measure, whether we focus on the parallel channel or the expanding triangle. A megaphone through which it can shout out its pain. So why the pessimism?
There are a few reasons for this.
The main problem spells R-S-I. Late January we got ourselves a nice lower bullish red buy signal.
This has now been stopped out as it closed >1% below the signal level. What this typically means ... as in with remarkable statistical reliability ... is that the price will move down within the upcoming <50 candles, as in 50 weeks in this case - or, let us just call it a year.
This does by no account mean the price cannot or will not move higher before giving up and rolling over.
Given that Bitcoin's found good support right at two separate technical key levels ... and given how immaculately weak the Bitcoin Fear & Greed index has been for most of the year (and not to mention the last couple of weeks!), the angry bears should have run out of enough steam for now to justify at least a minor pump, relief rally, bull trap ... call it whatever you want!
Upon a pump there are a few prime zones at which Bitcoin may run into particular technical difficulties in overcoming them.
First and foremost we have $34,000-$35,200. Next up is the $39,750-$40,250 zone - both of which coincide with the 382 and 618 fibs respectively, and both of which will have to push through the EMA50, -100 and -200 bands respectively.
After that comes the real trouble-maker: $44,500-$48,000.
Not only does this level hold good historical merit, a break of this pivotal top would break the bearish curse of lower lows and lower highs. It'd be the first time since the November peak since Bitcoin has taken out a new higher pivot high.
That'd certainly be something to celebra and only then would we have good reason to become truly bullish again. But don't be fooled, for the way over there is much longer than first seems. It's more of a mirage than anything palpable.
For these reasons, and unless new data is given along the way to alter the technical landscape, I will use any pump to release my holdings in anticipation of steep and sustained moves to the downside.
/Long Life Trading
