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Bumpandrun

The bet is still LINK over ETH and BTCAs my brother said it, Link is a honeybadger right now that don't give a rip about fud, about other coins, about bear raids. Chainlink is just going to wreck everything and so you might be worried about being late to the party. I don't think you could be late because this still has decades of gains to put up. As is continues to emasculate all other coins we (mostly you) still need to make sure we are not getting blown out when this thing retraces or consolidates with poorly timed or sized margined longs as you FOMO in over perceived missed gains. The main chart is what I am going to refer to in future as the Chainlink Pattern. Not that it isn't seen in a lot of assets but because it has been very useful here. It is basically like looking at a Bump and run bottom reversal but from a different angle. If you want to look at Bump and Run formations from the standard angle, look here: thepatternsite.com The chart explains itself mostly and the ideas are just applying fundamental charting to a specific pattern. There is a sharply rising trendline that is basically a ramp that price action gets a springing start to BASE jump. My linked (heh) ideas will show how I used the bollinger bands to find the bottom here and chose link over other top coins for my hodl and my margin trades. The main chart is on linketh, but we also see this fractal has begun to form on Linkbtc. I expect this will work much the same way as it has on ETH. My personal plan is to hold link and keep my link margin positions open as long as I can. I will be adding to my positions on any pull backs. This chart is a rough mock up but with something has historically bullish as link against btc and eth it has been historically a great idea to buy dips and hold. Most people have no business timing the market but Bollingerbands do help. The chart below shows link on the daily and linkbtc and linketh on the weekly. During links downtrend a lot of damage to price actoin occurs when price action of linketh and linkbtc is against the bollinger band lower limit is great time to buy or pivot holdings into chainlink. Sometimes the baseline of the bollinger bands against btc and eth provide support. There should be little to no denying that link continues to trend up. I would like to make some dramatic announcement that soon link will never return to these levels against BTC and ETH but we might have to reconsolidate and test this zone as support sometime in future. Hopefully we will retest the top of the zone as support and not some double bottom, but the market gives us as the market gives us.
Long
by This_Guhy
11
Bitcoin approaches $25,000, how can we identify a potential top?First of all - let me clearly state that this is solely a EDUCATIONAL IDEA & not a short recommendation - Shorting parabolic bull markets is not recommended especially for beginners and this idea is solely to give you a understanding of what A POTENTIAL blow off top can look like. If you want to show your appreciation for the insight - then i would greatly appreciate if you give the idea a like & comment thank you! Today marks a historic day in the Cryptocurrency Markets, with Bitcoin entering a new price discovery phase breaking its $20,000 all time high. So if you have been holding your Bitcoin since the last crazy bull run congratulations! But where should you consider selling? How can you have a idea when the market is going to turn against you and head downwards? In my personal style of trading i often use chart patterns to find potential areas the market can reverse or change momentum. One of the patterns I use often is referred to as the BARR TOP. The Bump And Run Reversal Top (BARR Top) is not a well known pattern and can be hard to identify. Price has a strong uptrend off in two phases - the bump & the run, first a small increase then recovery occurs, then price increases with massive volume at a very sharp angle. Price then makes a sharp peak and comes down breaking the support line (A); the angle of this support line is usually around a 35-50 degrees. It often throws back and bearish retests off that previous support (this is the entry point, B), its common for this rejection to be at the 0.618 Fibonacci level. Back in 2017, Bitcoin ran to $20,000 then put in a Blowoff Top, but one thing not known by many also is that the 2017 Bitcoin run ended in a BARR TOP pattern! Lets have a look at Bitcoin in 2017 and how we could of traded this Bump & Run Top Pattern: As you can see the BARR TOP was a excellent sign that the Bull Run was over and Bitcoin did eventually make it to the target area. So let me give you some insight about what exactly this pattern is, how we can identify it, and what key areas the pattern can give us: IDENTIFYING THE BUMP & RUN TOP • Look for extreme upwards movement followed by sharp retrace (”run”) • Usually at a steep angle with huge volume • Almost exact in appearance of the left image • The “bump” (first phase) is usually rounded in appearance or "choppy" Log scale is to be used when identifying the pattern. The possible price targets are the important Demand Areas at the start of the pattern, if you dont know what a Demand Area is, then click on the below image for a explainer: KEY POINTS • Good success rate • Strong breakouts • Pattern not considered valid until breakout and confirmation occurs • Not as common as its mirror - the BARR Bottom (Bump & Run Bottom) • Look for 0.618 rejection to increase success So the idea is to wait for the BARR Top to be formed, if you are already in a short position then you can watch how price reacts to the diagonal trendline (A), marked on the chart at (C), we can see that once the price has multiple confirmations then the possibility of the Bump & Run Top actually failing comes into the picture. Whereas if the price breaks underneath (A) and then confirms the downtrend at (B), it can signify the potential of a strong downtrend continuation. If the downtrend breakout occurs, we can draw a measurement area from the two Swing Low (LH) points at the beginning of the BARR TOP or we can use Supply & Demand Areas to identify potential take profit or support areas. Click on the below image to understand how i use Order Zones to find these important areas: Below i have linked 3 more ideas on BARR TOPS & BARR BOTTOMS for further education, thank you!
Editors' picks
by Worth_The_Ri5k
70
Is BITCOIN making a bearish bump and run reversal?Looks like BITCOIN ( COINBASE:BTCUSD ) is making bearish Bump and Run Reversal, currently it broke the running up channel, making the Bump, when the bump loses momentum, it will start to collapse, and it will comeback into the channel, then breaking the channel it self. The max target could be where the run started, which is at $3900 area, but it could bounce at the trend line at $6000 and never continue down that tend line maybe for a long time. Look at the (Opaque Red Box) for price range. What is your opinion? Leave your comment and a Like. Good luck
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TWIMARKETCAP
7
ETH.USDT (Y20.P4.E8).Looking to go longHi All, This just another update to the previous chart, link supplied below explaining the price action of ETH using the Inverted BARR method. A bit of a scenario I missed out on the previous post for the short term. I stated where the resistance trend line will be but I did not factor 2 scenarios, 1 with logarithmic scale and the other not. > If it breaks above both these scenarios, and also the previous high, go long Now looking at the non logarithmic chart above, it explains the resistance. Hence my following thoughts MY THOUGHTS: =================================== > Applying the inverted BARR strategy, bump and run as well. > We have the inverted BARR trendline as the major resistance. > Note how the previous peak for ETH was at the 0.618 fib level which sets it up for this new trend line. Bitcoin did something similar early this year and it took up to the 4th attempt to break it (refer to previous BTC posts in that time frame). I expect something similar but less likely 4 attempts. I would lean to the 3rd attempt to break it. > Right now, we have BTC dominance on the up, soon it will level off and here is when I think ETH will break this trend. > In the meantime, it will do some sort of consolidation under this resistance. > If it breaks above both these scenarios, and also the previous high, go long > Alts and ETH are in sync with BTC dominance and key levels of resistance, Some like LINK have a very different structure, which I am not so sure to read at the macro level. > My expectation is if ETH breaks this resistance trendline, it could also have another reistance level with the logarithmic lead in trend line as well. > Most likely the ALTS will follow and the ALT season will kick in. Lets see how this hypothesis goes. Please give me a like or tick for this post. NOTE: Do not short BTC, go long. If you considering wedge formations or head and shoulder formations, you will fall into a trap. All the best, S.SAri. ========================================================================== Logarithmic chart\scale ========================================================================== Non logarithmeic scale ========================================================================== PREVIOUS POST ANOTHER POST USING THE INVERTED BARR APPROACH, Proves to be correct
Long
by ssari
NEO.BTC (Y20.P4.E1).Macro.Looking when to go longHi All, I'm going to do a few of these charts today and I'm not afraid to be wrong. For now, this NEO chart makes sense, based on fib. levels, trend lines and formations. Its not a trading advice but a means to plan for the shorts and where to go long. NEO.BTC overview, inverted barr structure Please give me a like or tick for this post. Cheers, S.SAri ZIL.USDT ====================================== ====================================================================== ====================================================================== STORJ.USDT, the one that got away, a beautiful bottom setup which I overlooked. ====================================================================== ====================================================================== ====================================================================== LINK.USDT ======================================================================
Long
by ssari
3
Silver Versus NASDAQ Part I: Decades Long BARR top ConcludedThe bump and run formation is something that is usually looked for with a lead in of six to eight weeks and not six to eight years, but as I charted silver futures against the NASDAQ I saw what was there. This post is long silver against everything, especially the NASDAQ The Bump and Run Top is one of the preeminent charts for understanding blow off tops and the subsequent hang over when the part is over. If you are looking at an asset that is prone to blow off it's top this is what you should be looking for. Likewise if something has a V Shaped bottom there is probably a Bump and Run Bottom in there. Be careful, you calculate the target via different methods and my first couple of times charting BARR tops I got it wrong. As always, Bulkowski wrote the definitive book on this chart pattern. thepatternsite.com Often you don't get full Lead In Height performance on the Bump and Run but here it appears we came damn close. Further, the Average True Range appears to have hit its galactic bottom but the price action has set a higher high compared when the BARR top began. The ATR is commonly used to find potential reversal point when it hits multi-year low on weekly or monthly timeframes and so it seems we have set a higher high Now since we set a higher high there is the chance that this bump and run formation has formed an Elliot 0, 1, and 2. If that is the case the typical next target would be 1.618 pr 2.618 of Wave 1, shown by the fib extension. One of the main inspirations for this post was Mike Maloney from GoldSilver.Com and his you tube channel. He reminded his viewers recently that precious metals have V-Shaped tops and rounded bottoms and the stock market often has rounded tops and V-shaped bottoms. Most of y'all probably are already familiar with his work. I plan on doing a few more ideas in this series so please stay tuned. They will show up in the Linked Ideas shortly.
COMEX:SI1!Long
by This_Guhy
FTM.BTC (Y20.P3.E1).Macro structure.Key levelsHi All, I have been trading FTM of recent, only once so far due to the structure. It was an opportunity for a small trade. When I did my review today at the bigger structure, it has passed one big hurdle and is likely to keep going up. However it has many layers of resistances. < Note: WR, WS, MR, MS are what I mark for weekly resistance and support as well as monthly resistance and support. These help find targets as well> My thoughts: > Major sloping trend line resistance has been passed and retested on the daily, so its held up. Using the Run and Bump strategy, its also fits into this structure and hence strategy. > Hence, I see a potential price potentially bouncing off the 0.618 fib level as per the 4hrly chart, due to the volume profile having confluence with this fib. However the 0.5 fib looks like its holding based on the current candle and its wick. > I don't think it will be that volatile in this range. How to trade it: Not an easy one to call the entry but if the daily (current) candle closes above the 0.5 fib level (13 hrs to go) or higher then, its a bullish sign. As per my chart, I'm looking at 0.5 and 0.618 fib level and the candle sticks on the 3, 6, 12 hrly time frames, to go long. Please give me a like or tick for this effort, Cheers, S.Sari 4 HRLY chart. Overview chart
Long
by ssari
1
ONT.BTC (Y20.P3.E2).Breakout levelHi All, As of today, another Alt that's showing promise. Potentially about to break a key level (lead in trend line, just got rejected) and pulling back to the previous resistance level as it being written. How to trade this? Wait for it to break the lead in trend line, and get retested before jumping in, the safe or conservative way. Otherwise buy on the line and place a stop loss after a 4 hrly bullish candle. Here are the monthly, weekly, daily and 2 Hrly charts. Monthly chart: MR\MS monthly resistance and support lines Weekly chart: WR\WS weekly resistance and support lines RSI has plenty of room to the upside. 3 Day chart: Phoeix indicator still showing upward pressure Daily chart: 2 HRLY chart: Note: the rounded bottom trend, showing strong upward pressure Key point, the level it has broken and needs to hold on the retest. If this holds, its a bullish sign to enter. What are your thought? Please give me a like or tick for this post. Regards, S.Sari PREVIOUS ONT.BTC post on the link below.
Long
by ssari
2
ZRX.BTC (Y20.P3.E1).Macro structure.BullishHi All, ZRX against BTC (like XLM.BTC) is showing some bullish macro structure with already 2 rejections at the resistance trend line and what looks like a wedge formation taking place in the lower time frames. While writing this, I have already jumped in. 15 min. chart ************** Observations ************** ************************************************ > Observe the 2 rejections at the main trend line > Wedge formation or compression formation taking place, just under the key resistance area > potential cup and handle structure taking place > Bearish divergence on the Daily > Below labelled and lines outlining the structure ************************************************************ Thoughts ************************************************************ This looks very much like another inverted BARR structure (bump and run) and hence once the trendline is broken, it will have little resistance on the way up. Also at the micro level, the wedge formation taking place could be part of a cup and handle structure and hence its target has confluence with the resistance line I have drawn. To summarise: > potential cup and handle structure taking place > 2nd rejections at the main trend line, 3rd attempt should be successful. > potentially a bullish flag of some sort, including this wedge could take place before the 3rd attempt on the trendline. ************************************************************ How to trade this? ************************************************************ Maybe wait for the main trend line to break and\or jump in when the wedge structure has a break out with a stop loss just under your entry. or Look for a bullish candle on the 12 HRLY chart from the 0.5 fib level or 0.618 fib level. 3 HRLY chart NOTE: ZRX against USDT, hence confluence with ZRX.BTC being bullish 2 Key levels broken WEEKLY and Monthly support and resistance lines identified, as part of identifying targets.
Long
by ssari
3
Behind BARRs, Trapped in a Love Triangle Our second attempt at the bullish falling wedge has failed (previous idea) and we now find ourselves testing major support levels near 7400. The failed wedge is an important indicator. As we are in the middle of a large symmetrical triangle I believe its failure is indicative of price action heading into 2020. While not picture perfect BARRs, I cannot help but notice many similarities between the orange line starting in 4/19 and in our current run taking off in 7/17. Our recent BARR has a lead-in that is generally accepted to be too short (less than a month) and it's much steeper than previously. However, so far it has played out much the same as last time. Moving forward I would not be surprised to see a jump from here towards the 8.6k-9k area. A similar rise happened in 9/1/18 (1st green box) when price corrected after confirming the BARR line and we saw a secondary rise of ~25%. However, I would not expect prices to maintain these levels for long. As much as the bull in me hates to say this, it would be healthy for this market to confirm the lower area of this triangle where I expect heavy buying pressure. Doing so would give buyers a lot of confidence during an upside breakout of this formation thereby lowering the chance of failure. Also, putting some distance between main street and the catastrophe that was 2018 can only be a healthy thing.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by James_D
BTC (Y20.P1.Video).Recent events explainedHi All, This video recording is an attempt to explain what I take from the charts, historically and how its applied to the past few months and this breakout. JUST A NOTE on sound recording: I'm hoping the sound comes across as when I play it back, its was ok however with my other previous video recordings last year, people complained that there is no sound. Maybe its the volume setting, so please, if you don't hear anything, turn up your volume more. I couldn't explain why this happened last time, and by publishing this, I will find out if I have fixed the issue. As I explained in the video, here are some reference material to this video: Bump and Run Chart Pattern Strategy> tradingstrategyguides.com Previous reference charts to this video post (extracted from updates on my previous posts) > Previous post on BTC using Bump and Run strategy >
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by ssari
8