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BUND

German Bund Is On The Rise, So As EURUSD PairWe talked about a bullish turn on German Bund back on June 20th, where we mentioned and highlighted more gains within wave C of an A-B-C rally, which can also recover the EURUSD pair. As you can see today on August 05, German Bund is extending strongly higher within a five-wave bullish cycle for wave C with space up to 140 area. At the same time EURUSD is also nicely recovering due to a positive correlation and with still bullish Bund, EURUSD can easily see more upside.
OANDA:DE10YBEURLong
by ew-forecast
#Bund market is completing a falling wedge #reversal patternJust wanted to highlight the falling wedge pattern on the bund (#reversal) that we noted on Friday will complete on a close above 137.25, however given the move this morning we will just go with it. It offers an approximate 147 upside measured target. Near term #resistance is 140.63/85 - the 23.6% retracement of the move down from December 2021, the June 2022 low and the January 2023 high. #markets #trading #investing #technicalanalysis Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
EUREX:FGBL1!Long
by The_STA
1
Pay attention to the downtrend on the #BundA significant loss of downside momentum depicted by the #divergence of the weekly and month #RSI AND a potential falling wedge suggests that market should be closely monitored for signs of #reversal. #fixedincome #technicalanalysis #trading #investing Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
EUREX:FGBL1!
by The_STA
German Bund yields: secular reversalGerman Bund yields ( DE10Y ) are in the midst of a secular trend reversal after the breakout of both the 200-month moving average and a 40-year descending trend line. Yields on the 10-year Bund have never gone over the 200-mma mark before. The next barrier is the psychological threshold of 2%, which coincides with the September 2013 highs and 23.6% of the Fibonacci retracement level (all-time highs of 1981 to all-time lows of 2020). Breaking above 2% could then see the 3.7-3.8% yield as target (2009 highs and 38.2% Fibonacci). The ECB's forthcoming interest-rate hikes and Germany's rising inflation trend, which reached 7.9% in August, the highest level since German reunification, can exert substantial upward pressure on Bund yields in the coming months. In particular, the market may begin factoring in a greater volume of Bund emissions from the German state as a means of financing an expanding deficit caused by energy subsidies. The latest €65bn package is worth more than 3% of the German's GDP. With the ECB expected to reduce (or completely stop) government bond purchases, the German government would need to find buyers who demand higher yields due to rising interest rates and inflation. The current real rate of Bunds (the difference between the nominal and inflationary rates) is -6%, which is close to the lowest level ever. Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodity analyst at Capital.com
TVC:DE10Y
by Capitalcom
Major breakdown in the Bund?The German Bund has broken new trend lows. Despite coming out of the descending wedge a couple weeks back the bullish setup could not produce a sustained bounce. Normally, this would not be a big deal. Just a continuation in trend. However, the reason why this is such a big deal today is that we have broken the 38% Fibonacci retracement that was forged from the 2008 lows to all time highs in 2020. The risk is that the Bund market could freely drop aggressively. However, the RSI is divergent, and on the heels the FOMC this would could influence bond yields globally, including the Bund. Will the major break hold? We should know by the end of the week.
OANDA:DE10YBEUR
by ForexAnalytix
Elliott Wave Analysis: German Bund Is Trading At SupportHello traders and investors! Today we will talk about German Bund, where we see very interesting support level after recent bond market crash. As you can see, bonds are sharply down and if we take a look at German Bund monthly chart, from Elliott Wave perspective, we can still see a corrective decline within higher degree wave (IV). From technical perspective, ideal support would be here at the former wave IV, 38,2% Fibo. retracement, base channel upper line and the 155 - 150 area. So, be aware of limited decline and watch out for bounce and new rally within higher degree wave (V) soon. Trade well! If you like what we do, then please like and share our idea. Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
EUREX:FGBL1!Long
by ew-forecast
Major top on the bund measures to 155.37After one of the most hawkish meetings in quite a long time from the ECB where they outlined a faster pace of taper and dropped their language regarding rate cuts, we thought that we would take another look at the Bund chart. We are taking a look at the long-term Monthly chart of the Bund continuation contract and we can clearly identify a top on the chart (looks more like a descending triangle to my discerning eye). Chart patterns are fantastic, when you identify them properly of course!! For a valid top pattern this should appear at the end of a protracted bull market. They offer a long-term downside target (you use the width of the top to measure lower), this offers a downside measured target to 155.37 (the top extends from 167.52 to 179.67) and this coincides quite well with the 156.22 2018 low. Please note that this is the MINIMUM downside target. I also use the duration of patterns to give me some idea of time frame for when that downside target is likely to get hit. The top built from August 2019 to February 2022 i.e 2 ½ years, and targets are usually met in half that time – say 15 months. Mind you I have noticed over the years that the targets from tops tend to get hit faster, so I think under 12 months. We have two meetings next week - the Fed and the BOE and both are expected to raise interest rates by 25 bps, and with inflation where it is, further weakness looks likely. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
EUREX:FGBL1!Short
by The_STA
Bund approaching much tougher resistanceAs traders unsurprisingly head to safe havens, one of the biggest movers has been the bond market, which has seen a vicious rally higher. I am having a look at the bond market this morning. How far will this rally go? This is a tough call to make but given the overhead band of resistance, which the market has reached, my suspicion is that we should at least see a pause here. So, what makes a ‘tough’ area of resistance on a chart? This happens when a number of chart factors converge in the same area – so for the Bund March contract market this morning (N.B. this is about to expire) we have 2 double Fibos at 170.90/96 (61.8% retracement of the move seen this year and the 50% retracement of the move down from August 2021. Directly above here lies the 200-day ma at 171.66 AND another double Fib oar 172.52/69 (the 78.6% retracement of the move seen this year and the 61.8% retracement of the move down from August). In addition, we have a whole host of resistance coming in from price – previous highs and lows. We also have the 55-week ma coming in at 171.54. MY point is – there is a LOT of resistance in this band, and you may like to tighten up stops if you are in it! Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
EUREX:FGBL1!
by The_STA
The bearish argument for lower Bond markets continues ....Bund 10Y Yields are back above zero for the first time in a couple of years. We have been viewing the bond markets as building major tops for quite some time and if we take a look at the EU 10Y yield rate, which has just breached zero, we can see that there is clear evidence that rates are now in a longer term up trend and have been for well over a year. Note that the definition of an up move is for higher reaction lows and higher reaction highs, and this has been the case since October 2020. From both a fundamental and technical perspective the bearish argument for lower Bond markets continues to build momentum. With Oil hitting multi-year highs amid growing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and ongoing supply tightness, we are looking for further upside pressure on the energy markets, coupled with an upside surprise for the German ZEW Economic sentiment index yesterday (it jumped to 51.7 in January) the bond markets are suffering. In fact, technically, the EU 10Y yields have completed a base and now look ready to maintain the break above the 200-week ma at -0.18. They have been contained within a up channel extending back to 2020 and this comes in at approx. 0.07/0.08 and is likely to offer some decent resistance ahead of much tougher resistance at 0.28/0.30 (approximate lows that were seen throughout 2018). Longer term the market has completed a large base, which offers measurements much higher than this… Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
TVC:EU10Y
by The_STA
1
Bunds at major pivotAll the talk in the market these days are that "rates are moving higher" globally, and they are not wrong. And when trying to gauge if the US bond market will continue lower (10yr yields towards 2%), sometimes helping confirm the move with other markets is very important. What we see with the German 10yr bund we are at very critical support which has held as a pivot in the market on July 2016, January 2020, May 2021, November 2021 and today. A break of the 168.70 level could expose a move to the 167.41 level and also confirm yields are rising globally. Our assumption we are at risk of a breakdown tomorrow following the US jobs report. 
OANDA:DE10YBEURShort
by ForexAnalytix