Bunds
German bonds increasingly steadilySome techniques i like to employed into my trading is:
- Creating a range using Last week Price Action
- Creating a range using Monday Price Action
Key levels Identified:
1) Last Week High
2) Weekly Open
3) H4 Resistance turns support
4) Monday High
Bund CFD (DE10YBEUR) short.All description on chart.
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Bund CFD (DE10YBEUR) short.All description on chart.
Please, don't forget to like and follow.
Thank you.
BUNDS: TACTICAL SHORTI have taken a tactical short position in German Bunds - based on little more that the fact that we're at the top of a channel range. I prepared to get stopped out, if we being to move higher.
BundFuture - Uncertainty prevailsThe BundFuture has a very high level of resilience and is likely to continue to decline until the first half of 2019. This indicates that a slight increase in interest rates on 10-year German Bunds is to be expected at least in the short term.
As of mid-2019, uncertainty in the euro-area should prevail again and thus demand for the "safe" harbour of-BRD-bonds rise and thus the 10-year-olds again slip below 0% interest rates.
After the completion of wave 5, a waterfall event should lead to a sharp increase in interest rates and over 1-2 decades to massive social upheavals.
Greeting
Stefan Bode from Hannover
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Bunds Long Term ViewGerman Government Bonds continue to languish aimlessly in a down-trending channel. The gradual convergence of the moving averages tells us that the market may be close in time to a decision point. Unless the market confidently closes above this channel, it can be assumed that Bunds are topping out in earnest.
The fundamental story behind Bunds is that the rest of Europe sees Germany as the safe haven. This assumption is based on economic political correctness, which refuses to acknowledge the flawed design of the Euro. Thus, whilst the Euro has largely fallen in the same time period, Bunds have benefited from ignorance.
The play will be the short side. It is possible that we are now rounding over. Confirmation will be provided by a break of the channel lows.
We are within a consolidation, so caution is still advised.
Dax outperforms SPXDax outperforms SPX as long like 10 Year Bunds Dollar Hedged outperforms 10 Year Bunds in euros
10Y US/DE : Bond market distortion at historical bounderies...This is loooong term chart here, but the process in motion is a really dangerous one because it concerns the bond market that is supporting every bit of the investment process and credit liability throughout the market. This spread between german and US yielding is reaching long term dangerous levels of distortion and may lead to some credit troubles.
Hope this idea will inspire some of you !
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DE10Y / D1 : already showing signs of upward trending to come.We may show some short term demand on bonds because of equities volatility that I already expect. But I think anyway the EU bond market will remain under the bigger catalyst that this market will have to forecast new prices to settle to after ECB will pull out in december.
My trading plan here is to remain bullish on the december future expiration and buying all interesting pullbacks.
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Global-Review / May 25th : VIX sellers in danger today !Hope this idea will inspire some of you !
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If you want to see my chart more closely, click the share button below that video.. You will be able to have access to the chart used in that video.
Indicators used in this forecast are PRO Sinewave BETA & PRO Momentum .
You can check my indicators via my TradingView's Profile : @PRO_Indicators
If you have questions about the topics discussed in that video post a comment with "@PRO_Indicators" handle.
Kindly,
Phil
If you want to learn more about the basic rules to trade with my indicators here's the educational video link :
TY1!: ABCB completion on structural multi-decade trendlineIn a world where bunds and JGBs are zero bound, why wouldn't 3% yield and an appreciating USD be attractive to global investors? There is a weekly ABCD completion in the TY1! on high volumes which coincides with a major multi-decade structural uptrend support. A break above 119.40 in the 240M chart would be confirmation. A long in the UST10 can be hedged off with a short in the ES1! where momentum is waning off.
Bund back on support, potential for a bounce!Bund is back on major support at 159.26 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) and a potential bounce could occur at this level to push price up to at least 160.65 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).
RSI (34) is also making a nice pullback to previous resistance-turned-support line.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.
Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
Could Italian BTP Yields Catch Up With Bunds & US?Short 10 Year Italian BTP Futures as a hedge and catch up play with U.S. treasury and German Bund Yields.
Bund right above major support, prepare for a potential bounce!
Bund is hovering really nicely above major support at 160.40 (Fibonacci extension, Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support) and a bounce could occur at this level. If price breaks through our descending resistance line, this would add much more conviction to the potential bounce up to 161.88 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance).
RSI (34) also sees a descending resistance line holding price down really well. Only a break above this could trigger a corresponding bullish bounce in price.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.
Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
Bunds Bouncing Up?Bunds have not been able to break below this key trendline (blue) which has served as the support for this move since 2014.
The path of least resistance appears to be to the upside with a major resistance area pretty far above @ ~180.00. Both the top of the current channel as well as a major trend line connecting the '94 and '99 highs (green)
Germany Interest Rate - Bull BreakoutGerman 10-year bund yields rose to 0.56% on Thursday, around their highest since January 2016.
German 10-yr yield – expanding channel formationThe yield looks set to test the expanding channel formation resistance seen around 0.55% as the RSI is yet to hit the overbought territory, although a pull back to 0.393% (Feb 15 high) cannot be ruled out given the loss of bullish momentum as highlighted by the daily MACD.
Forecast Euro Bund Future Next Few MonthsMidterm forecast Euro Bunds Future:
Expect 3rd wave down reaching for 160.50 - 160.00, taking out stops below the structure in the process. Then a consolidation followed by a move up to 167.50 - 167.75 to close the gap.
Special focus on the Fib Time Series, would love to see the swings at the marked lines.
German 10-yr Bund – Dip demand likelyThe rising trend line from Dec 2013 low and June 2015 low offered support in December 2016. The nice rebound from the trend line followed by yesterday’s spike suggests the prices could test supply around 164.65 (weekly 50-MA) over the next few days.
The weekly MACD has turned positive as well… the RSI is about to turn bullish as well
Sell Bunds on rallies!On thursday ECB president Mario Draghi maintains a dovish tone on rates, Bund reacted with an attempt to rally from lows of 162 and closed 162.36 that day. However that rally was short-lived as the US Dollar continued to strengthen ahead of Trump's inauguration while pushing global bond yields higher.
Bund closed on a critical support level of 162, which has been an area of consolidation since the beginning of 2017. I do expect the markets to rebound on this technical level however, I believe the underlying trend is still intact. As the market reaches a critical resistance at 163.56 it sells off at a much faster pace, as you can see the market grinds slow on rebounds suggesting that selling pressure is still strong. My bias would be to stay short on Bund as sell into corrective rallies.
Macro highlights next week:
- Draghi speaks (23/1/2017)
- German IFO Business Climate (25/1/2017)
- UK Prelim GDP (26/1/2017)
