German Bund yields: secular reversalGerman Bund yields ( DE10Y ) are in the midst of a secular trend reversal after the breakout of both the 200-month moving average and a 40-year descending trend line.
Yields on the 10-year Bund have never gone over the 200-mma mark before.
The next barrier is the psychological threshold of 2%, which coincides with the September 2013 highs and 23.6% of the Fibonacci retracement level (all-time highs of 1981 to all-time lows of 2020).
Breaking above 2% could then see the 3.7-3.8% yield as target (2009 highs and 38.2% Fibonacci).
The ECB's forthcoming interest-rate hikes and Germany's rising inflation trend, which reached 7.9% in August, the highest level since German reunification, can exert substantial upward pressure on Bund yields in the coming months.
In particular, the market may begin factoring in a greater volume of Bund emissions from the German state as a means of financing an expanding deficit caused by energy subsidies. The latest €65bn package is worth more than 3% of the German's GDP.
With the ECB expected to reduce (or completely stop) government bond purchases, the German government would need to find buyers who demand higher yields due to rising interest rates and inflation.
The current real rate of Bunds (the difference between the nominal and inflationary rates) is -6%, which is close to the lowest level ever.
Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodity analyst at Capital.com
Bunds10y
US T-Notes 10 years analysisHello traders,
Let’s have a look on ZN.
The ZN is showing an increasing trend. The pitchfork indicator was capable to limit the evolution of ZN.
Right now, if the ZN could break support S0 it will look for reaching the R1 resistance (and could break it too). Otherwise it will bounce on the S0 and decrease to reach S1.
Thank you for reading this analysis.
Hoping it helps you in your ZN Future trading.
FGBL in an increasing hallwayHello traders,
The FGBL is growing in an upward trend. The hallway of growth limits the evolution of the FGBL.
So, what we expect is that the FGBL will continue playing inside that hallway, but in an increasing trend in long term.
If the FGBL breaks down the secondary support, it will decrease so that it bounces on the support S1.
But, if it can break the resistance S1, we can say it will leave that hallway in a new increasing trend.
(Alert) Good Buy Signal for FGBL at 175.84 Price ZoneFor now we can keep our position on FGBL (Euro Bund 10Years) and buy more at 175.84 because there are good signals that it will Continue to go up in the next couple hours Until it reach to price zone ( 176.32 to 176.17 ) and then it will bounce back.
Theres a good Buy signal on 175.84 price zone that will have a great probability of winning (Time Frame 1H)
My Proposition for Entry : 175.84
My Proposition for Target : 176.32 to 176.17
My Proposition for Stop Loss: 175.36
EURO - Where the money in the Euro-Area flowsHere you can see where the money in the euro area flows. It is clear that a lot of money is flowing out of the euro area but within the euro area the safe havens are being sought. At the moment these are still the German government bonds and you can see that very nicely since March and yesterday's panic high of the Eurobund Futures. After a short consolidation, I expect more highs to Bundfuture.
That means a Lot more stress in the Euro- and Banking-system. Be careful with financials!
The idea published here serves for the time being as illustrative material and has yet to establish itself.
Greetings from Hanover
Stefan Bode
P.S. Press "Like" if you like it ;-)
ridethepig | Bund Yields & Rate DifferentialsOn the other side of the Atlantic, a timely update to Bund yields with interest rate traders starting to position for 2020. The better prints from Germany are in the spotlight and this increase in interest is accentuated by the next fortnight of data deprivation. Here I am looking for DE10Y to re-test -0.234 next week. EUR$ remains in play to the topside with all eyes on 1.25 long term targets:
View on Bund Yields is shifting towards the buy side leaves me comfortable leaning into rallies with -0.077 and 0.081 as extension targets in the swing. Will get excited about the topside on a clean break of the highs in US Yields:
Overall, I want to be constructive on Bund yields here given relative ECB change via Lagarde, much tougher towards the fiscal side and improving relations. On the Brexit front, the restrictions that are like to be incorporated into the new round of positioning for Brexit transitioning flows (should be completed by H120), are likely to be "conditional" on US interference into future trade deals and thus not damaging for European assets till Q320.
For those tracking the rate differentials charts:
While those tracking the flows in FX will know the EUR$ map already:
The floor has been placed, expecting Euro to begin rallying as we enter into the final pages of the cycle. US numbers are holding but is clear they wont be able to hold more than Q1 2020. Smart money will now position before waters become choppy.
Thanks for keeping your support coming with likes and jumping into the comments with your charts and views.
BundFuture - Uncertainty prevailsThe BundFuture has a very high level of resilience and is likely to continue to decline until the first half of 2019. This indicates that a slight increase in interest rates on 10-year German Bunds is to be expected at least in the short term.
As of mid-2019, uncertainty in the euro-area should prevail again and thus demand for the "safe" harbour of-BRD-bonds rise and thus the 10-year-olds again slip below 0% interest rates.
After the completion of wave 5, a waterfall event should lead to a sharp increase in interest rates and over 1-2 decades to massive social upheavals.
Greeting
Stefan Bode from Hannover
P.S. If you like it - Thumbs up!
Bund back on support, potential for a bounce!Bund is back on major support at 159.26 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) and a potential bounce could occur at this level to push price up to at least 160.65 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).
RSI (34) is also making a nice pullback to previous resistance-turned-support line.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.
Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
Bund has made a bullish exit, potential for further rise!Bund has made a bullish exit and sees major support at 159.26 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support). A strong rise could occur from here pushing price up to 160.65 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).
RSI (34) has made a bullish exit signaling that there’s a change in momentum from bearish to bullish.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.
Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.