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Burry

GEO - Scion Asset Mgmt. = Smart money?NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!!!! As shown in This SEC 13-F filing, Scion Asset Mgmt. (Burry) currently has one mentionable LONG and its this ticker with an assumed cost basis of $6.60 and 501,360 shares... I am betting these shares were NOT purchased on the open market and were instead acquired via assignment meaning credits from selling PUTS were likely involved (for tactical reason to fight slippage as explained below), unfortunately making it impossible to calculate a factual cost basis from this filing alone. Selling DEEP "ITM" PUTS(covered by cash) expiring today leaves a cost basis (if assigned) of $8.20 and if assigned, the ability to sell next weeks $9 strike for a profit on both sides. Profit in this scenario would be from credits collected at sale of calls and proceeds if called at $9 before expiration. The other way to also be long GEO at current market prices, and perhaps with a lower cost basis, would be to just buy shares. If you are buying shares in multiples of 1000 maybe the order book isnt liquid enough and you need a contracted price to enter without the potential for slippage? Well look no further than selling the deepest "ITM" puts expiring TODAY.... While selling "ITM" puts expecting a non-assignment is a game of long odds and not advisable, you also have the chance this way of keeping credits and not being assigned, which eliminates your ability to capitalize on the future upside for the unassigned shares, however you also didnt technically expose yourself to the share market and still profited. I personally dont like following others trades blindly, so I analyzed and found some technical confluence and subsequent conviction through the monthly volume profile points of obvious interest and fib retracement levels calculated from the last 5 year depreciation.
NYSE:GEOLong
by rolledchange
4
The Michael Burry GEO tradeJust analyzing this purely technically because I like MB and as of now supposedly this is his only long holding. Now, keep in mind this is not a stock for everyone - "The GEO Group, Inc. is a publicly traded C corporation that invests in private prisons and mental health facilities in North America, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom." So yeah, a lot of people including myself will have problems giving money to this, but when we analyze it purely technically, I can see why MB is very bullish on this for the long term. First of all, we've broken an enormous MONTHLY downtrend (right side chart is a monthly chart) and we're basing with bullish divergence on the daily chart (left side) - that's usually a good thing to be looking for when trying to ID possible bottoms. Buyers may not all be there, but sellers are starting to dry up. Could it go lower? Absolutely. Then there's the Monthly RSI on the right side chart - enormous bullish divergence within this basing. On the left chart we can see it is retesting a previous resistance area (7.25-7.50) which should now be strong support. So, I can see why this is very interesting to Mr. Burry. I don't recommend anything, but I thought it was a good example of what these gurus see before things blow up.
NYSE:GEO
by the_sunship
13
I bought this Burry play that has a nice setupAs they say, "When you don't know what to do, just copy Burry." He bought at a much higher price than where we are at now and it's at this long term support line, so it seems like a good spot to buy. I got in at $55.40 and I have two targets, a 10% gain that is around where Burry's average is from last quarter and my ideal target between $65-68. Stop is a 4.87% loss at $52.69, which gives a nice risk/reward of 2 if the first target is reached.
BLong
by Lynxys
Apple downside indicatorsThanks for viewing, Why would anyone be bearish on a stock that has gone up over 200% in the past 18 months? I'm just watching the chart. If you look at the chart you see some concerning trends, mainly; - Volume dropping off since March 2020 as the price increases meant the stock was less and less of a bargain. - Some rather strong RSI bearish divergence - where every higher price highs are shown as lower highs on the RSI - which is at the least a sign of slowing momentum. - Dividend return having significantly weakened in 2021. - Higher inflation, which tends to drive investors to seek higher dividends or safe havens (since the US10 year isn't a safe haven anymore with an annual return of 1.44%. Given the CPI for October 2021 sits at 6.2%, that yields a *negative* 4.76% annual return that counts out treasuries as a safe haven). Apple has scope to raise its dividend as it currently only pays out around 25% of net profit as dividends - but right now the dividend is rather negative and should the price rises stall I would imagine we could start to see some strong selling pressure as investors see their unrealized gains melt away or leveraged traders / investors turn negative. When I am watching the RSI I watch for 3 peaks of lower highs that then pushes the RSI below the 70 level. Once that happens, prices tend to weaken and I would expect an RSI of sub 40 to be next for a significant retracement. I don't have a target yet but After its 2000 peak it retraced 80%+ and ~60% during the 2008-9 financial crisis, so the downside is clearly there for anyone to see. Bearish RSI divergence was also evident in 1999-2000 and 2007-8. I tend to agree with Michael Burry's general thesis that stocks that have priced in significant future growth will be hardest hit during periods of inflation. Anyway, just putting it out there. I am not an investor and not shorting. Look after those funds everyone
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by flyinkiwi10
$ARKK: Cathie vs Burry, Which Side Will You Choose?The 120 level on ARKK continues to act as a very prominent level. What would you do? ARKK 120 features a prominent low volume node and now we have a chance to meet this level with the falling trendline that starts from the Feb high to the June 2021 lower high. Together these forces will meet and ultimately decision in the coming weeks. I'll let time tell me which way I'll play this one but will the Russell 2000 be a canary in the coal mine or will it successfully squeeze bears like it's been known to do. You may also look to the Fed and forex markets to see how the dollars role may play apart. Good luck traders!
AMEX:ARKK
by Fox_Technicals
2
ARKG - Narrowing TriangleI see a narrowing triangle. Triangles we love especially squeezed ones with a bit of consolidation visible. I will not enter from point 1. First we need to observe bounce back from 1 and rejection at point 2 so basically one more touch on each sides of the triangle. If that occurs, I will start opening position on point 3. we see 2 influential figures coming head to head. Burry & Cathie. Although Burry is more on Tesla bubble, still these kind of names have an overall impact on whole ARK etfs. Thread carefully, my thoughts on Burry`s stance is a bit low. Yes the total market is high, yes the run after covid has been very steep but if you open a short position for that long (>1 year) eventually at one point you will see a correction. So without giving a timeline, it is easy to say there will be a market crash. Every 18 - 24 months, SnP 500 does more than %15 downwards correction. That correction might be %20-25 on ARKK. This does not mean you are right. If you say in Q3 21 I expect that crash/correction, and it happens then yes you are right. Timing is the most important thing.
CBOE:ARKG
by S5_Trading_Desk
Tesla; A short historical chart analysis DISCLAIMER This is in no way, shape or form, fluid and function, an analytical, qualitative or intelligent compte rendu. I am obviously not rich, so obviously I haven't made it with my own thinking, so definitely don't put faith in me. But maybe read and learn some things about a company's stock history and trend analysis with a subset of buyer and seller behaviour. Behaviour Analysis If anyone has seen any of the analyses' coming out of ARK on Bitcoin buyers and sellers, this is a little like that but with very specific buyers and sellers being analyzed. This is a small subset of the history of the stock, and only major groups will be organized, but the overall trend analysis is in support of a growth channel, as provided on the chart, but a follow up question/general wonder if that channel will hold with recent changes. For those not following, Elon Musk has recently taken Bitcoin off the table (temporarily) for Tesla, citing environmental concerns. Without me getting into this, ARK is rather unhappy, with several of Cathie Wood's underlings going on angry man-baby rants on twitter (and getting shut down on them all). Mocking rich people is fun, and should be a common public sport. While the arrows I have pointing to ARK doubling down on the Tesla bet is not perfectly exact, the general time frame stands. This serves as an important reminder of what these major groups are looking for in a chart and trend analysis, but also highlights their general belief that this growth channel is correct. My guess is this is also how they see Tesla going to 3k within 5 years with the appropriate positive catalysts correlating to developmental goals and timelines of Tesla's development cycle. This is also a great reminder of how to scale and diversify investments. ARK has a wealth of Tesla shares normally tied up in their ETF, but we see they took in-flows to buy more Tesla at the bottom of the channel (likely keeping Tesla inside this channel) and selling at the high of the channel. While they took temporary massive increases in their Tesla investment, their was a base level unmodified through the event. What is even more interesting, is Michael Burry's major short movement against Tesla. Burry and Scion probably recognized the bubble outside of the growth channel, and jumped on it immediately. My guess is that they are beginning to cover, as Tesla is far outside of their previous growth channel, but there is the possibility Burry is playing a game of wait-and-see. With the recent wedge between Musk and Wood over Tesla, it will be interesting to see if ARK looks to buy in to Tesla again for the impulse series, or if they are going to take a more backseat approach and look for other groups to moderate price discovery for Tesla. Still one of the most heavily shorted stocks, Tesla represents a unique battlefront between Bears and Bulls, where neither is right and both are fighting on shifting sands. Tesla has enough foundation and momentum to move forward as a juggernaut of capitalism, but when controlled by a mad kind, the battle becomes psychological. With an average 10 day volume of 33 Million shares, price changes can be fast and volatile. This analysis is not meant to be a price prediction or financial advice, because the market only cares so much about trend analysis. While these big players create a self-fulfilling prophecy of growth channels, trend analysis and wave series congruence, their attention and money can be swift to change directions. My hypothesis is that there is an institutional turnover right now, where institutions are deciding their big bets for the next year, and whether or not Tesla has a part in it. Tesla has a bright future ahead, but Elon Musk pushes harder and harder on investor confidence. RSI analysis The RSI serves as a good indicator for overall buying vs selling, the higher the RSI the more buyers and buying, lower the RSI vice versa. We see that the January peak correlates to high RSI, stepping into overbought territory. Furthermore, we see the decrease in RSI with decrease in price. While there would be a general favourable trend pointing to a time to buy right now, it is important to look at historical data and see that Tesla has a habit of staying in overbought territory for RSI. It would be easy to look at that and say, investors are overall bullish and Tesla is bound to bounce back hard from their oversell struggle, but equilibrium must be met. As this wave of overly bullish investors re-analyze the field, looking at Tesla's growth and compared to other mainstream available bets, it will be interesting to see the how Tesla's price plays out. Furthermore, the MACD supports the possibility of an extended down period, bringing Tesla back down to reality, or back down to a previous resistance level and sending it right back up as shorts look to cover. High Volume Periods Suggesting Tesla isn't a normally high volume stock would be wrong, but compared to these periods with >200M volume, perhaps we are due for a big week soon. It looks like we are well overdue according to historical trends, but Tesla has been trying to find a catalyst on either side to make that happen. The recent crash took a bite out of valuations, and NSTB coming out confirming Autopilot was not on did not give them that bump back up. Things to Watch for The following is an extremely short list of events to keep an eye out for, with some explanation: Tesla-ARK communication: ARK is mad at Tesla, ARK is also in a little bit of a tight spot so them starting &*%$ would be interesting, and watching Elon hold back or bite in is going to be a big prediction for the follow-up. Personally, Elon is getting to be more and more of a PR risk, he is upsetting a lot of previous investors that used to love him, while bringing on a new wave of fanatics. As he burns bridges with those, watching the general tone towards Elon change will be important. While Tesla may be one of the most important companies for the future of Humanity at this juncture, and it's sibling-relationship with SpaceX is huge, never underestimate mob mentality. ARK buying in: ARK makes it known when and what they buy every day, keeping an eye on this is a great way to look for some undervalued investments, but ARK rarely does quick trades, so don't look to day-trade following ARK. Furthermore, I have spent a significant amount of time analyzing days when ARK buys, and it doesn't look like they ever cause a massive shift in momentum the period of their buys. This is a mix of choosing high volume days, being a low volume buy and ultimately, risk mitigation. Shorts Covering: A massive short volume, some big put aggregates and tightly held shares could mean one covering could lead to dramatic price increases followed by a chain reaction of shorts covering. Margin Calls: This is currently happening, how Tesla reacts to this will be interesting, but my guess is that anyone getting margin called has some puts on Tesla, so it'll be interesting to see what happens in the near term. Tesla news: Cybertruck is coming, revamped Model 3, Y, S and X are also on the table. Look for some major advancement in the redesign that could be a good catalyst. Elon is pushing the Texan Tesla-Town and is pushing for advanced precision in fabrications. Both of these could be big. Autopilot: Elon keeps opening his mouth and Tesla keeps correcting it. Looking for a major pivot moment for either is going to be big. If autopilot is <2 years away like Elon suggests, big, if it is >5 years away, oof. Biden's Stimulus and Environmental Package: Look out for big tax credits or spending increases to EV cars that might get Tesla some more headwind. It was the carbon tax credits that kept Tesla afloat and liquid originally, any more advances or decreases would have large implications for them. Disclaimer This is purely for an educational retrospective and has literally 0 implications for future price. Furthermore, ARK and Burry are only small components of the total price action. While both have followers enough to amplify movements, there are larger economic forces than either. Hopefully there is some insight in here for everyone. If you have any questions regarding this post, Tesla price action or anything at all that might be relevant, please feel free to leave a comment. Thanks!
NASDAQ:TSLA
by DoctorFaustus
2