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Waiting For A Breakout In GBPUSDGBPUSD could go either way, although the long-term trend is to the downside but one should not rule out a move higher. As traders our role is not to GUESS what the market will do, rather it's to recognize what the "smart money" is doing and simply ride their backs. With that said we will be ready to take a swing trade in either direction. We want to see a close above the green downtrend line or a close below the red uptrend line. Our algorithm will be tracking this pair as well, we would like to see an 85% or higher probability of the move in the same direction as the break. The closer this pair gets to the apex of this triangle the more powerful the move can be once the break happens. As of 04/05/2016 our algorithm is indicating this pair will essentially stay within this triangle for the next week or so, but be ready as the algorithm will update every day. Please see the snapshot below: imageshack.com imageshack.com
Short
by unique4x
Waiting For A Breakout Of EURJPYEURJPY is getting ready to break one way or the other, although the long-term trend is to the downside we can't rule out a move higher. Our algorithm will be watching this pair and giving us an update on a daily basis. We will be waiting for a close above the green downtrend line or a close below the red uptrend line. Ideally we would like to get a reading from our algorithm of 85% or higher probability confirming the move higher or lower. Targets higher will be 129.500, 131.000 and 132.000 Targets lower will be 124.500, 123.500 and 122.000 The closer this pair gets to the apex before breaking out the stronger the move will most likely be when it occurs. Below is a chart of our algorithm: imageshack.com imageshack.com
Short
by unique4x
Exxon Mobil, and the Energy SectorWith Oil prices hitting new lows every now and then, it’s hard to believe that pump prices in Singapore barely move an inch while the Energy Sector’s valuations have been dropping. The Sector’s performance move in tandem with oil prices, as higher prices would allow them to realise more revenue. That equates to more funding for oil exploration, but with oil at such low prices, it’s hard for these companies to break even, not to mention investing in such projects. Being a technical analyst, I believe that charts tell more stories than fundamentals do. Personally, I have used charts to “forecast” news, whether if they meet analyst projections or not, and have thus further convinced me that technical analysis is the way to go. The chart which I have picked out today would be that of Exxon Mobil, which I have mentioned in my previous post. Just like any other Oil and Gas company, Exxon Mobil’s stock price has been falling from a peak of 104.72 in 2014, to 66.55 in August last year. This puts the stock under my watchlist as I hunt down stocks that has been oversold due to market sentiments rather than fundamental reasons. Based on an article written by Alexander Valtsev on Seeking Alpha, he has issued a “HOLD” rating on this stock for an increase in risk in the company due to the low oil prices that would cause revenue to stagnate. However, he did mention that Exxon Mobil is fundamentally better than other players in the market, which is crucial in our stock pick. In this market conditions, we have to choose the cream of the crop to reduce our risk exposure and maximizing our returns. Technically speaking, the stock has been hovering at the 61.8% retracement of the rally from 24 August 2015 to 2 November 2015. With an increase in trading volume at that level, along with a combination of bullish candlestick patterns, this is one stock that is bound to rally in time to come. My target price for this stock is $92, which is approximately a 18% gain from current price levels. My opinion of the oil and gas industry would be that oil prices are in the midst of consolidating, and 2016 might be the year where oil prices would slowly regain its true value. What are your thoughts of the Oil and Gas Industry, as well as Exxon Mobil? If you'd like my post, do visit me at www.houtiantan.com for more frequent market updates!
NYSE:XOMLong
by HouTianTan
EUR/USD Targeting ResistanceTargeting resistance at 1.1387. • EUR/USD keeps on pushing higher. Daily resistance lies at 1.1387 (20/11/2015 high). Hourly support may be found at 1.0711 (05/01/2016 low). Yet, expected to show further increase. • In the longer term, the technical structure favors a bearish bias as long as resistance holds. Key resistance is located region at 1.1453 (range high) and 1.1640 (11/11/2005 low) is likely to cap any price appreciation. The current technical deterioration favors a gradual decline towards the support at 1.0504 (21/03/2003 Low). Here at Unique Forex we combine our team's 40+ years of trading experience with our proprietary algorithm to significantly enhance the trading experience. Utilizing the two, we are able to offer some of the most powerful research on an array of currency pairs. Here you will get all of our research on some of the more popular majors like the EURUSD, but if you would like to get access to the rest of our research head over to www.unique4xpro.com
Long
by unique4x
EURUSD Continues to Strengthen Strengthening. • EUR/USD keeps on pushing higher. Daily resistance lies at 1.1387 (20/11/2015 high). Hourly support may be found at 1.0711 (05/01/2016 low). Yet, expected to show further consolidation. • In the longer term, the technical structure favours a bearish bias as long as resistance holds. Key resistance is located region at 1.1453 (range high) and 1.1640 (11/11/2005 low) is likely to cap any price appreciation. The current technical deterioration favors a gradual decline towards the support at 1.0504 (21/03/20003 Low). Here at Unique Forex we combine our team's 40+ years of trading experience with our proprietary algorithm to significantly enhance the trading experience. Utilizing the two, we are able to offer some of the most powerful research on an array of currency pairs. Here you will get all of our research on some of the more popular majors like the EURUSD, but if you would like to get access to the rest of our research head over to www.unique4xpro.com
Long
by unique4x
Look For Further Weakness In USDJPYUSDJPY broke below major support by closing under 118.40, a level that supported the uptrend on a closing basis for over a year. Not Including the late-August whipsaw low of 116.18, this creates a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. USDJPY’s multi-year uptrend is ending. The current trend is increasingly likely to bounce, and we recommend selling strength. We see major resistance at 121.80 USDJPY weekly chart shows a bearish cloud cross. It's showing signs of weakness as the ichimoku cloud just crossed and the cloud is officially in a bearish position. This happened with RSI breaking support and showing a bearish momentum. USDJPY may trade down to the 100wk moving average and the bottom of the rising cloud at about 114-115.50. Given the triangle top, a measured move suggests 112 is even a possibility. A rise to the 50wk average and top of the cloud at about 120.75 would be a great place to go short, in our view.
Short
by unique4x
GBPAUD Getting Ready To Run Higher?GBPAUD has been in an uptrend for the past 9 months and has recently pulled back approximately to the 50% Fibonacci retracement. We suspect the uptrend will continue soon but would like to see a daily close above the short-term downtrend line you see in green. As of Monday December 14th we need to see a close above 2.13400, obviously that closing price will be coming down the longer it takes. Assuming a daily close above that short-term downtrend the first target will be 2.15246 which is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Stops can be placed using the Daily Average True Range of 250 Pips.
Long
by unique4x
AUDUSD - Consider A Short Trade In This PairThe Australian Dollar is on the defensive against is US counterpart once again. Prices have broken below trend line support guiding the move higher since early November, hinting the near-term bias has shifted to favor the downside once again. A daily close below resistance-turned-support at 0.7184 opens the door for a test of rising trend line support set from early September, now at 0.7064. Alternatively, a move back above the horizontal pivot at 0.7283, marked by the November 24 swing high, paves the way for another challenge of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7387. The break through near-term trend line support argues in favor of a short position but prices are too close to support to enter the trade immediately from a risk/reward perspective. Instead, we will establish an entry order to sell the pair at 0.7250. If triggered, the position will initially target 0.7184 with a stop-loss activated on a daily close above 0.7283.
Short
by unique4x
EURUSD - Remaining On Sidelines For NowThe Euro continues to push upward having rebounded against the US Dollar as expected, hitting the highest level in a month and establishing a foothold above the 1.10 figure. The single currency launched upward following last week’s underwhelming ECB monetary policy announcement. Near-term resistance is at 1.1117, the 50% Fibonacci retracement. A break above that on a daily closing basis opens the door for a challenge of 1.1257, the intersection of the 61.8% level and a falling trend line set from late August. Alternatively, a move back below resistance-turned-support at 1.0976, the 38.2% Fib, paves the way for a move to the 1.0802-18 area marked by the May 27 low and the 23.6% retracement. The medium- and long-term EUR/USD trends continue to favor the downside. That paints the current upswing as corrective, suggesting it represents an on-coming selling opportunity rather than something to be chasing upward. With that in mind, we will remain on the sidelines and wait for an actionable short trade setup to emerge.
by unique4x
USDJPY MONTHLY OUTLOOK As you could see on the monthly chart we have two key scenarios. It would become more clear once we drop down to the weekly time frame. However, as you could see price has breached above the downward channel demonstrating bullish momentum. This strength of the bullish momentum can be argued through the Divergence seen on the RSI and the chart. This therefore, provides us the extra confluence of a potential mini corrective downward structure to retest the upper trend line of the channel before a possible continuation to the upside. The “Management Level” can be a key indication if the short trade to the trend line is valid. This would be analyzed further on the weekly time frame. A break and close below this level would increase the probability of a retest of the trend line. Furthermore, the extra confluence adding to our decisions is the 200 EMA acting as magnetic support around the target area and the upper trend line. On the other hand, if price breaks above its 8 year high 125.920 then we can see further bullish momentum to the upside of 133.500 then up to the Red Box. As of now price is hovering around the neutral zone, as we are not trading directly off the Monthly chart we are looking for the short setups in regards to the potential downside movement.
Short
by SERGENAYTUG94
GBPJPY OUTLOOK SKACAPITALFor the meanwhile this pair is looking short to downside targets of 182.500 possibly lower. For those of you who are looking to enter short a break and close below the mini yellow trendily would be a good entry. However on the longer term picture we are looking longer to the "D" on the red harmonic pattern around 187.930. If price does not drop down to the 182.000-182.500 area then we can look to buy on the breakout and close above the red horizontal line 184.370. If price breaks and closes below 181.500 then we can look short to our red box target and possibly lower. We have our own levels in place where management would take place. The best scenario would be a long position from the "Good Potential Buy zone". Shorter term Target: Short Longer Term target: Long
Short
by SERGENAYTUG94
NZDCHF OVERALL LONGOverall we are long on this pair through conducting our top down analysis. On the monthly, weekly, daily time frame we have bullish signals. However, analysing the 4 hour window it seems as if the 5 Impulse wave is in play. If the 5th wave does complete around 0.64800-0.6500 we then can look for bearish signals for the corrective wave. However if price breaches and closed above 0.65100 then we can look for further bullish momentum to the upside. We would not be looking to short on the corrective wave until price has breached below the trendilne (Channel). The targets of the corrective wave are just an estimate, once we have bearish confirmation then we can look to set more accurate targets. For now are concentrating on the 5th wave
Long
by SERGENAYTUG94
EURUSD SKACAPITAL NFP EURUSD Non farm pay rolls analysis. If the NFP is negative for the USD we would see bullish momentum to our upside target of 1.12500 (possibly higher). If NFP is positive for USD then we can see movement down to our targets of 1.1000-1.09500. We have our safety and management levels in place which would help us determine where to enter the market. Trading the news is a gamble therefore we have multiple scenarios i place to manage our existing trades.
by SERGENAYTUG94
GBPUSD LONG SETUP SKACAPITAL Have been saying for months that our target for GBPUS target is 1.6000. Price reached close to this level Mid June and late August. However, we are all about risk management and safety within the markets. As you could see on the chart price has been rejected to the downside "DPR" 4 times. These 4 levels sit on the 61.8% retracement on the weekly time frame. Even though I believe this trade setup is long I always have a safety plan (Exit Plan). So if price breaks below 1.50750 then would look short to the down side highlighted red box (Careful of false breakout.) However, As explained on the chart we have several upside targets. Day traders can gave multiple targets between current price and target 1. On the 4 Hour time frame we currently have a falling wedge representing a reversal to the upside in combination with oversold on the Stochastic on both the Daily and 4 hour time frame.
Long
by SERGENAYTUG94
EURUSD Waiting for the Long TradeEURUSD looking bearish on the opening of the market. All about patience. We will wait for the Long setup for the swing trade and day trade for the short setups. As outlined on the chart we have safety levels set up to help us determine in which way the market will move. If Price breaks and closes below 1.11200 then we can see down side movement to the "D" Extension 1.1000. However, if we see bullish price movement at price level 1.11200 then we can expect a bullish harmonic pattern back up to our achieved target. If this does happen then we would re analyse the chart to see whether it is a good short trade down to 1.1000 or a continuation to the upside. The Final setup would be if price breaks and closes above the 200 EMA and the "Neutral Zone" then we would see further bullish momentum up to our achieved target then possibly higher. I have been stating for months that EURUSD target is 1.2000. However, due to uncertainty and manipulative data I do not know exactly know how long it would take to hit this level. But It is possible for this pair to see 1.1000 once more before it moves up.
by SERGENAYTUG94
GBPUSD Setting Up For Short TradeGBPUSD has been in a downtrend over the past few days and clearly the hourly chart is following suit. As you can see there have been three corrective moves over the course of this downtrend. Each of these three corrective moves spanned 51 - 102 Pips. When corrective moves are limited to less than 20% of the total move it is showing that sellers are in control. Again as you can see the biggest corrective move of 102 pips was 17% of the total move while the other two ranged from 8.5% - 11.3%. Sellers are obviously in control. We will be waiting for another corrective move of between 51 - 102 Pips, currently having a short entry target of 1.52900 - 1.53250. This can very easily change if this pair sets a new low before giving us the corrective move we're looking for, with that said we are willing to adjust our short entry target if needed. Targets will be 1.51750, 1.51000 and 1.50300. Our stop will be 1.54500.
Short
by unique4x
EURCHF Forming A Solid ABCD PatternThis pair is forming a very solid ABCD pattern as point C was put in place very decisively. The chart is showing the ABCD pattern overlaid with a Fibonacci Extension. Our projection is for this pair to make a run towards the 61.8% to 76.4% Fib extensions but we wouldn't be surprised if it made a run to the 100% level as the pullback was shallow. Pullbacks that do not retrace the entire 61.8% show that buyers are eager to resume the uptrend. As you can see the C retracement was only 56.9%. As long as the bulls stay in the Euro camp our projection could be met but as we all know the Euro has been in a long-term bear trend. Set your stops just below point A, we will be willing to risk down to the 1.06900 level as our algorithm is calculating 90% odds of a run higher on the daily chart. www.unique4xpro.com
Long
by unique4x