Macro Monday 43 - Japan Composite PMI Macro Monday 43
Japan Composite PMI – Japan’s Business Activity
(Flash PMI is released Tuesday 23rd April 2024)
Unfortunately, I had great difficulty in locating the Japan Composite Flash PMI in chart form on TradingView (it appears to not be available).
Instead we will briefly cover the Japan Composite PMI chart which is the final PMI released later on Tuesday 7th May 2024 (for April). We can review the Flash PMI figures that are released tomorrow regardless for an indication. The flash consists of about 90% of the final PMI input thus is a good forward view on how the final PMI will come in on the 7th May 2024.
Over the past three weeks we have covered the following three indicators for Japan:
1.Macro Monday 41 - Japan Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
🚨 Pessimistic but with an improving long term trend. A positive ranging move from 28.6 in Nov 2022 to 39.5 in April 2024. This is the highest reading in c. 5 years, a significant milestone and trend higher. A move above 40.86 would signify a move above the historical average level of consumer sentiment (less pessimistic, as only above 50 it optimistic).
2. Macro Monday 42 - Japan Reuters Tankan Index (RTI)
✅ Business Optimism is high with the Japan Reuters Tankan Index standing at +9, down from the previous month's 10 however firmly in the positive (above zero).
3. Macro Monday 43 - Japan Composite PMI
✅ THIS WEEK we take a quick look at the Japan Composite PMI which is firmly in the positive at 51.7 (above 50 is expansionary and below 50 is contractionary).
As you can see from the chart below we have been in an uptrend since Nov 2023
The Japan Composite PMI for March 2024 was 51.7, indicating continued expansion in private sector activity (businesses). This matches the optimistic business sentiment in the Japan Reuters Tankan Index. This marked the third consecutive month of growth and the strongest pace since late September in PMI. The service sector saw solid expansion, while the decline in manufacturing production softened slightly. New orders accelerated to a seven-month peak, primarily led by the service economy. Employment growth was the steepest since May 2023, and there was a marginal rise in outstanding business. Input prices expanded robustly, leading businesses to increase their selling prices at the most pronounced rate for seven months. Overall, the PMI provides insight into the health of Japan’s private sector economy
The overview of the past three weeks we covered and what they broadly tell us? 👇🏻
Japan Businesses are in expansion and optimistic whilst the Japanese Consumer remains reserved
In contrast to the positive Business Sentiment and Business Activity in Japan, the Japanese consumer is not as optimistic and appears to be trailing business behind sentiment(RTI) and activity (PMI). The Japan Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) came in at 39.5 for March. Whilst this was the highest reading in 5 years for the Japan CCI and demonstrated a trending recovery from lows of 28.6 in Nov 2022, the Japan CCI remains below its historical average level of 40.86. Despite a sizable recovery since Nov 2022, the current 39.5 suggests the Japanese Consumer is still more pessimistic than the historical average.
Whats the Japan PMI made up of?
The Japan Composite PMI is a weighted average of several key components that provide insight into the health of the private sector economy.
Here are the main components :
New Orders (30%): Measures the volume of new orders received by businesses. An increase in new orders suggests growing demand and potential future production.
Output (25%): Reflects the level of production or business activity. Higher output indicates expansion, while lower output signals contraction.
Employment (20%): Tracks changes in employment levels. A rising employment index indicates job creation and economic growth.
Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15%): Monitors the time it takes for suppliers to deliver goods or services. Longer delivery times may indicate supply chain disruptions.
Stocks of Purchases (10%): Measures inventory levels. An increase in stocks suggests businesses are building up inventories, while a decrease may indicate reduced demand.
The above components collectively provide a comprehensive view of economic conditions in Japan’s private sector
How to read the PMI chart
The Composite PMI varies between 0 and 100, with a reading above 50 indicating overall growth compared to the previous month, and below 50 indicating contraction.
PUKA
Businessservices
I longed MicroStrategy with a Small Position TodayI must say I adore Chief Executive Officer Michael Saylor and think he is brilliant and a wonderful communicator.
We all know the drill- they have taken out a $650m & a $950m loan at rates under .01% and have been buying bitcoin since sub $12k and then using the capital to pump it up. Which in turn continues to pump-up their own underlying assets which are bitcoins that were acquired at various levels from $10k on up.
They then use the new equity from all the underlying being pumped up and then take out more loans and do it over and over. Rinse repeat. This in essence lets them have a position essentially short the dollar and long bitcoin. Whats funny is people act like this is risky, yet if you think of how much traders are paying using margin (I do not recommend using margin in this manner if you want leverage run option spreads) traders are paying far more in margin interest then 1%.
"MicroStrategy Inc. boosted its convertible debt sale to buy Bitcoin by nearly half and cut the coupon to 0%, making it virtually a straight bet on the price of world’s largest cryptocurrency.
The software maker priced $900 million of senior convertible notes, up from the $600 million announced Tuesday, and gave an option for $150 million more within 13 days. The debt will pay no interest and the company estimates total proceeds of about $1 billion -- enough to buy about 20,000 Bitcoin at current levels."
Source: www.bloomberg.com
Fundamental Figures:
Market Cap 8.5B
Sales $480M
P/FCF 241 (Very high!)
EPS this Y +95.7%
Gross Margin 81%
Net Margin 5.4%
Interesting company, with Institutions owning now 86% of it, and I have read they include the following:
BlackRock Funds 14% 1,060,491 shares
Morgan Stanley Investments 10% 792,627 shares
Vanguard Group 10% 753,268 shares
First Trust Advisors 4.9% 355,600 shares
Mutual Funds also have decent exposure:
iShares Core S&P Small Cap ETF 6.5% 475,526 Shares
First Trust Cloud Computing ETF 4.38% 317,358 Shares
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index 2.78% 201,852 Shares
Vanguard Small Cap Index Fund 2.37% 172,112 Shares
iShares Russell 2000 ETF 2.3% 169,504 Shares
Government Pension Fund 2.14% 155,057 Shares
I longed today at $914, however I will only add to the position at $800 which we can see here is S2 on the pivots:
$800 as well will be where the 20d moving average will be, which is my favorite moving average to long off of after it confirms support. (Red Line)
And finally this is where we will meet the EMA Ribbon.
With the nice runup in Bitcoin today though I did open a small position at this high level. - At least there will be no FOMO feelings.
Good luck trading friends and do your due diligence.
Additional Citation: www.bloomberg.com
Rocket Companies ready to take offAlmost 40% below its September all-time high.
Stochastic at the oversold point.
On-balance volumen falling into a support level for possible reversal.
It has respected the Fibo areas on several occasions.
Touching support at 23.6% of the fibo around $20.
It has resistance at $22.7 and another around $25.
Almost 70% institutional property.
Backed by Invesco, BlackRock, Vanguard, State Street and Morgan Stanley.
"Rocket Companies Inc.is a holding company consisting of personal finance and consumer service brands including Rocket Mortgage, Rocket Homes, Rocket Loans, Rocket Auto, Rock Central, Amrock, Core Digital Media, Rock Connections, Lendesk and Edison Financial. Rocket Companies Inc.is based in Detroit."
NYSE:RKT
Zillow Group $Z$Z is very close to the pivot has been trying to break since 2018. watch for a breakout $66.44 with high volume.
12 months Consensus Price Target: $62
if you find my charts useful, please leave me "like" or "comment".
Please don't trade according to the ideas, rely on your own knowledge.
Thx
Mastercard $MA Mastercard is close to buying point of $310.43. Forming a double bottom, to confirm needs to get above the buy point.
12 months Consensus Price Target: $326.85
if you find my charts useful, please leave me "like" or "comment".
Please don't trade according to the ideas, rely on your own knowledge.
Thx
EURUSD Probabilities For Pullback? Mid Term PossibilitiesTechnically exhausted bulls and tonight we have Businesses & Employment reports incoming from the US (ADP, ISM, and PMI) which are some key data representing the US economic outlook. Any unexpected numbers can spark volatility on this major pair. We had a 50bp emergency rate cut which was a surprise last night from FED and the aftermath outcome for the king was not good which we can know by watching over DXY around the floor (lately did rebound upward showing some correction hope). Exhausted euro bulls and oversold dollar make me think if tonight somehow the US passes a good outlook on those key reports then it can be a chance for the greenback for retracement over a shorter time horizon around 32.80% Fibonacci which line up with last time R1 of the W period pivot. I won't say that this major pair may have a full reversal at this point by knowing that FED has probabilities of 2 more rate cuts this year. It is the nature of the market to fall and rise back harder or rise and then fall back harder on the various factors of the underlying asset. Nothing goes to hell or heaven straight forward. Last night market players have pushed price further upward on this major pair after knowing FED surprise announcement which let me think psychologically and technically once at this point that there may not be more room left upward for this pair (overbought oscillators condition too). Even if the news doesn't favor the US tonight it has already priced in finely last night so possibilities can be just opposite creating a sell-off scenario (don't forget what happened with AUDUSD even after the cut by RBA last day). Even if reports end up being good for the US then also bear have some reason to push the price lower where market is already overbought for this major so that make some sense too. In both cases, it seems we may today have some pullback in this pair hypothetically talking.
Short-Term and Long-term investment When investing inside the stable market of primary resources like Water, Electricity and Gas. Their bigger well know companies that start of small with extreme potential of growing more mature along the market. Risk-taking has become confidential but unsure of the outcome of assets to lose and invest. However, investing into small stock symbols this could bring 150-180% in profitability and allows the stock market to breathe under the tough finances of business.
Pennies to Thousands Candidates Good Weekly MACD on daily about to cross.
Relative Strength and Money flow are good.
We are very close to publish our website www.penniestothousands.com which will have four audio tradliminal trading tapes plus an invitation to join for our monthly fee of our trading room. Even though the markets are closed tomorrow there will be some economic data so KEEP AN EYE ON IT!
The weekly has a good chart pattern.
Read about that type of pattern in our book: www.amazon.com