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Butterfly

Update 2 on the BTC Log XABCD Butterfly & operating assumptionTLDR : Current price action around the $60.6k (1.618fib) target has put the $375k (2.618fib) target into play. Also the NVT is poised bullishly. Confirmation has not occurred for either so margin trading is for degenerates (like me) only. View the linked ideas for more information on the log harmonic XABCD butterfly, which is a very technical formation. Introduction My linked ideas will go over the log butterfly and why I think it is a valid formation. Those ideas have focused on the 1.618 target but technically I see the justification in the chart that puts the 2.618 closer into reach. I am pattern trader first and I use indicators to help clear up my biases and set up my trades. For example, volume is suppose to confirm all patterns. I like my margin trades to be backed up with a lot of standard and hidden divergences as possible. I was right when I called the stall at 1.618 based on the chart pattern and now there is a nested structure that can get price above the all time high, which means that an impulse to 2.618 is realistic and even probable. Analysis The NVT is now in the green on the 5 day, which is a pretty high time frame for it to be green on. Using the NVT isn't an exact science, but broadly speaking the longer it is in the green the more oversold it was, so the better the recovery, and the higher the time frame it enters the green on the more oversold bitcoin was compared to the network transactions values. Even if the NVT is only in the green for a few periods on the 5 day it has rallied some 40% when it enters the yellow again. If this uptrend is powerful enough we can set new highs. At the least we should get something resembling a beautiful bull trap. The butterfly target of 1.618 has a downside target of about $625.00 That is pretty hard for people to comprehend, but that is fine. The target is the target none the less. Now the main chart shows the targeting if price reaches the 2.618 target. That target is comically low at less than $250 of full performance. Harmonic patterns are kinda humours to me in a way, because price goes up "bearishly" and down "bullishly" before the pattern snaps and targets get hit. A key point to note is that every point on the way down, X, A, B, and C are all legitimate places for the price action to stall and the pattern was still valid. If I post an update to this idea and price goes up to the 2.618 target and wicks through on the monthly and then falls to B at $13.8k and stalls there I see this series of ideas as an absolute win. The chart below shows some flagpole analysis and is the nested structure that can perform to get price moving. Operating Assumptions Broadly speaking, in bull markets when you see a pattern you expect it to break bullishly, even if it is a neutral pattern. If you are trading and you find you are getting formation not quite reaching target or reversing on you so quickly you didn't move your stops to break even or to take partial profits then that is a sign the trend is changing on you. While Bitcoin was topping in 2021 my shorts did very well when things triggered. When I saw that patterns were not breaking down anymore it was time to reassess. For the last month or so my shorts have done very well again, but the last couple of ones have stalled. I went from getting full performance or over performance to having to close my shorts manually because they looked like they ran out of steam and then finally I was either stopped out just in the money or for a loss. So it is time to reassess trend. I am comfortable swing trading once I have a bias but I do best when I only take one kind of trade, either all longs or all shorts, or I wait to decide what to do. If I find myself tempted to trade against my bias then it is time to wait and reassess. My linked ideas will show why I am so macro bearish, and even this formation goes up "bearishly" so I don't feel I am contradicting my recent posts with this idea. When you have weird economic conditions you can get a crack up" boom "A crack-up boom is the crash of the credit and monetary system due to continual credit expansion and price increases that cannot be sustained long-term. In the face of excessive credit expansion, consumers' inflation expectations accelerate to the point that money becomes worthless and the economic system crashes. The term was coined by Ludwig von Mises, a noted member of the Austrian School of Economics and personal witness to the damages of hyperinflation." (www.investopedia.com) I have a strong suspicion when all this is done if you cant live in it, eat it, or are addicted to it then that asset will be sold off first. That is how we get bitcoin to lose over 99.9% of its value. It isn't that far off when you have a bit of economic history that you lived. I was a young man when the dotcom bubble popped but I still read enough news to find out people lost fortunes holding on to stuff that lost over 95% of its value. My uncle worked in Silicon Valley in the tech industry and was very opinionated about outsourcing, the fact that tangibles will keep their real use value when you are hungry. He was able to make it through comfortably because he sold his company stock wherever it went up "too much". Lessons like that don't just go away easy. Below are some of the top looser of the dotcom bubble burst. As you can see, they all lost over 85% of their value two or three times. The psychological damage can be very intense now lots of these companies, which made physical deliverables, are also pumping again. But if these investments can lose over 95% of their value, something like bitcoin, which loses 30-50% of its value and gets it back as a matter of routine, is up for quite the beating. Even a company like Ford, with very tangible products and assets can lose over 95% of its value. Anyway, back to trading. The flagpole chart has very easily discernible tradable entries and exits to even a new textbook trader. If we don't break the channel on the weekly time frame with a full body then the idea that price can to to the 2.618 level gets negated real quick. If price sets a new low then the idea we can get to the 2.618 level in short order gets negated. I see some bullish line breaks and chart formations on some alts I am going to margin trade long like a degenerate. But as soon as I get done with this post I am moving my stop to guarantee a tiny bit of profit and cover my funding expenses. I have enough TA to justify operating under the assumption that Bitcoin can reverse here and at least move up to 70k. In fact, the log XABCD Butterfly both justifies the stall here at 1.618 and the move higher, so I am going to go with that as well. My most recent trade I have not been posting too many of my alt coin trades just because I have a lot going on and those ideas can take a lot of energy and not get a lot of traction due to how few people look at them. Right now I like dydx as a long because of how strong it looks against eth and btc as it sets a floor. This trade is hoping a small ascending triangle gives me a good entry on a pump that gets price out of the falling wedge. I will be moving my stop to guaranteed profit here shortly but I am going to give this one a lot of room to run.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by This_Guhy
9
EURUSD-Weekly Market Analysis-Mar22,Wk1If you have engaged the EURUSD trading ideas on Friday, you would have earned 106pips(1,060USD/lot) from Bullish Bat, and have your stop-loss at entry and attained a risk-free trade . Trend Traders can wait for a shorting at 1.1307. You may wonder, hey, you were long on the 4-hourly chart, why look at short on that 1hourly chart. If you have checked and compared the trade you would know that by the time the Bearish Butterfly Pattern form on the current timeframe, it would have passed the Target 1 of the 4hourly chart Bat Pattern. The 1hourly Butterfly Pattern could be a retracement on the 4hourly chart. Besides, a lot of Harmonic Pattern Traders took off major position on the first target, when that happens, a retracement is expected. However, if this is too confusing for you, stick with a single timeframe trading, and if you are looking to excel, look for a trading coach.
Short
by RaynLim
2
TCS HARMONIC LEVELS FOR POSITIONAL TRADINGTCS is currently in a correction mode, and it is likely that we may see further weakness in the stock, and stock could move lower to 3400 to 3200 levels in the near term. This is a great stock for Investment and for positional trading also. I can see butterfly pattern formation on its daily chart, which is suggesting a good support area around 3400 -3367 levels and at 3180-3208 Stock can be bought in tranches as both of these levels can be seen in the stocks. Disclaimer: Not a recommendation to trade.
NSE:TCS
by manuagarwal21
1
CADJPY - Bullish ButterflyWOW! CADJPY is our trade of the month. First, we engaged the trade on a Bullish Crab Pattern and before the Crab Pattern has even moved towards the direction that I was trading. I'd also spotted the Head and Shoulder opportunity to buy. With Trade management, that trade easily brought us 280pips(approx. 2,800USD/lot traded) of pure profit If you trade Type2 Pattern, on the 4hourly chart, we have a Bat Pattern to complete at 90.12. Well, if you are like me, when there's an immediate pattern and you prefer Type1 Pattern over Type2 Pattern, the Bullish Butterfly Pattern completed at 89.63 on the 1hourly Pattern.
Long
by RaynLim
USDJPY-Weekly Market Analysis-Feb22,Wk4If you have read the previous post(the article is within the link to the related idea within TradingView), the Bearish Butterfly has already brought you 167pips(approx. 1,670USD/lot traded) of profit. Should the market continue to fall and reach 114.58, it will be a Bullish Gartley Pattern for trend traders to hop on the trade for a buying opportunity. However, if the market reverses from this point, you should be able to catch the Bearish Bat Pattern on the 1hourly chart.
Long
by RaynLim
ES daily 02/17: Bulls at last standFor bulls, good news is the possibility of 0.50% rate increase in March has significantly reduced last few days. And the bad news are all from Ukraine issue, which I think is a total nonsense, but obviously most market participants take it very seriously. Every a bit of even slightly possible Russian aggression will instantly drop the market. But assuming it cools down in the coming days, then there are lots of fuel to pump the market to 4640~4680 and even 4700+ next week. From wave structure, we already have double top around 4585, and then double top at 4480~4485 range, a sustained break below Monday low of 4354 would be extremely bearish to me. Although we still have theoretical support of 4300, imo, if we lose 4350, we will see Jan low range retested, so bulls are now at their last stand. With today's low, it finished a butterfly pattern, so maybe we will go directly from here, but whether there will be more bad news overnight/tomorrow to break it, only God knows. For now, I still have my primary route as going up to 4640~4680 next, but I will always keep hedge on, as market already proved how volatile it can be, especially when market is basically controlled by Ukraine news...
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by duckwade
6