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XRP: the end or just panic dumping ?I usually don't do these kinds of posts but with everyone acting out their corona-induced panic-mode .. why not join in the fun. Ripple is one of the biggest in the crypto industry with an enormous list of (potential) partners, (trying to) give swift a run for their money. XRP is just one part of their business. There have been quite a lot of struggles with officials and cryptospace, find one that hasn't been charged with something, hasn't had some allegations spread. How likely is it this will end bad for XRP/Ripple or what are the chances this will be resolved in some fashion (fines paid, settlements, moving business out of the US, etc. etc.) Disclaimer: I am neither fanboy nor hater, it's just business as usual for me. Just a coin, like all of them, with it's pros and contras, some better some worse.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSD
by Je_Buurman
16
About Bitcoin, Pyramids and UnicornsI have talked about why BTC is not a Ponzi extensively in private chats and some charts comment-section in the past (which for the live of me, i can no longer find?). The subject keeps coming up so here it is for future references. A Ponzi/Pyramid scheme pays older/initial "investors" with money from newer "investors" - at some time one runs out of "greater fools" and the scheme collapses, leaving the last at a loss. Person A promises something to a few people. Person B, C, D, E, F, G. H and I. "I got this great thing .. you give me 50$ and I 'guarantee' you'll get 75$ back .. tell your friends too .. you'll see" They go along and sure enough the money comes in. Person A takes the money from D, E and F (total of 150$) and gives 75$ of those to B as promised, he also collects 150$ from G, H and I and in turn pays C the 75$. The remaining 150$ ... ;) More people hear about this. The greater fools .. keep finding them idiots to fuel the scheme. There are many variations on the scheme, DYOR. Now, the difference here with Bitcoin, Crypto and (most) markets is, they do NOT function like this .. AT ALL. One does NOT need fresh fuel over and over again, one simply recycles the old fuel. (hands of that keyboard .. keep reading first) Let's, again, oversimplify this: JimBo paints a limited amount of (20) paintings on small pieces of paper/cloth that represent some value, because they're so unique, nobody can replicate them. Trader-A , let's call him Aron, starts with 10$. Aron buys 10 masterpieces from JimBo for 1$ each. JimBo is thinking "if Aron just bought for 1$ .. maybe I can sell them for 2$ too ?". So he does just that and Trader-B (Buffalo-Bill, who also started with 10$) is now the happy owner of a stack of 5 crispy-fresh 2$ paintings. (JimBo is now the proud owner of (10x1$)10$+(5x2$)10$=20$ but lost 10+5=15 of his precious paintings, the average value of one painting now represents 20$ / 15paintings = 1.33$ (or 1$ = 0.75painting). So his theoretical total worth (all assets combined) is his 20$ plus a theoretical 3.75 for the reaming 5 paintings. Aron and Buffalo-Bill are unaware of JimBo's valuation. Aron takes note of Buffalo-Bill paying more for the paintings and starts bragging that he payed LESS for them. Someone else hears this .. let's call her Trader-C or Cicciolina. .. here comes what all trading boils down to, sentiment/psychology, how you are looking at the valuation of an asset, are you looking at it positively (Bullish) or negatively (Bearish)? The way you look at it influences your decisions. The equilibrium between sentiments at large, effects the market as a whole Cicciolina thinking: Buffalo-Bill asks for more than the initial 2$: "Would you buy this ? I would buy this, I would buy this so hard" and "why should I pay 2$ or more when Aron got it cheaper ?" will buy 5 pieces from Aron for the price of 1.5$ each (Aron wanted to make money on them but it was still cheaper than Buffalo-Bill) , totaling 7.5$. Aron made theoretical profit on half of his initial stack and thereby lowering the cost of his remaining stack, he now has 5 paintings and 7.5$, if he can get 2.5$ for the remaining 5 paintings (0.5$ per painting, less then JimBo got for them), he breaks-even. Aron is content for now. Buffalo-Bill bought for 2$, happy and "confident" it will go higher, making money in the longer-term because of "the past" showing prices can and will go up.. ALWAYS .. SCIENTIFIC FACT .. MATHEMATICAL FACT EVEN . Time passes and Cicciolina is starting to develop doubts about her deal. She is always so impulsive .. did she make a mistake ? She asks Aron and Buffalo-Bill if they want to buy some of hers for more or at least 1.5$ ..which they decline .. they are "good". Cicciolina is getting really nervous and keeps nagging about price until Aron agrees to buy 2-paintings off of her for 1.25$. Cicciolina now lost 0.5$ on 2 of her 5 paintings while Aron now owns 7 paintings and 5$. Cicciolina will now need a total of 5$ (1.666.. $ per painting) to break even. JimBo aware of what is going on with his paintings is not amused and pulls some strings (there always is the possibility of manipulation) .. he tells his neighbor, who works for the phone-company and is a trader in his spare time, Dillon Doe (he wants to remain anonymous .. yes .. the brother of John Doe) to cut some phone lines in order for the others to no longer talk to each other. Meanwhile Dillon Doe is cutting up one of JimBo's paintings (he got it for his birthday). He now puts up a sell order for 1$. Cicciolina sees 1$ and JUMPS right on it .. YESSS .. but .. wait .. what's this ? The trading-chart they've all looked at all this time now shows a huge green Dil ..eh..candle .. going straight for 1000$. "How could this be?" Cicciolina thinks, "I only paid 1$ ... oh crap .. I .. bought .. 0.001 part of a painting ?" . JimBo now all of the sudden is worth 20$ + 4 paintings (he gave one to Dillon Doe remember?) for a total of 4020$ .. where did that 4000$ come from ? did JimBo steal it from someone ? Did someone just lose 4000$ ? Aron and Buffalo-Bill also seemed to have 'gained' money out of nothing. ^^^ this is essentially Market-Cap .. so you see .. it's an absolutely irrelevant metric, since the cap does NOT mean that amount of money really exchanged hands, not every painting was bought/sold for that price and/or at the same time. So, YES BTC could go to 10 million $ and have a market-cap higher than all the money in the world. Aron, Buffalo-Bill and Cicciolina now cut off from knowing each others reason, unknown to them if others are joining their trades, will have to rely solely on their charts. Trying to "predict" price, trying to find patterns, trying to use their guts, trying to throw dice or only trade on Mondays (see one of my related Ideas "How-to-create-a-Strategy-and-make-it-profitable"). Maybe they'll start groups where they discuss all of their gathered knowledge, 'coercing' each other into trades they otherwise wouldn't take "He said it would go up?!" Simply put: 3 or 4 people can be enough to drive price in every direction indefinitely. It is not needed to get "fresh money", "new blood" or "greater fools" in. Not quite how a Ponzi works now is it? Practically there always will be fresh money in of course, old Traders die or quit, youngsters pick up the trade (pun intended), derivatives of the paintings, futures on the paintings, merchandise with the paintings on them .. you name it. Yet that is still irrelevant. The reason why this can continue for quite a while (how long is Gold being traded by now ..) is the difference in mentality and knowledge of traders. Look at Cicciolina for example, she is impulsive (but has a good paying job making movies), she don't mind losing some money .. she "will win BIG some day" . Aron on the other hand is extremely patient, taking some of Cicciolina's money once in a while, while watching her movies. They will keep doing their trades, wining some, losing some. And Buffalo-Bill ? Who knows. This is of course ridiculously oversimplified and does not work in the real world. The real world is more cunning, it clouds our minds with fairy tales, make-believe, hope, fear, scarcity and inflation (one asset gains while the other loses and vice versa). Trading is distribution of wealth. Even if you have extended knowledge about markets/trading and are master of your emotions. You will let go of money or asset once in a while. Be it purposely (cutting losses, see my other Related Idea: "Letting go of Losers") or by mistake, that money will make someone else's day, getting them hooked on this addiction called "Trading".
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Je_Buurman
... or die tryingIntroductory Warning: This is long (at least for my doing), it is not directly related to trading, instead this is about MY journey, why am I here, how did I get here. Maybe you can take some lessons from it, maybe you recognize yourself in it a bit or maybe you just feel the uncontrollable need to make fun of me in the comments in order to hide your own insecurity or stupidity or maybe you're just bored and need something to waste your time. Whatever the reason you are here, feel free to stay or head-for-the-hills Life does not give you what you want . Life gives you what you need . What you think you need, seldom is what you truly need . Life gives me 🍋🍋 all the time, i don't like lemons. Make lemonade ? I don't like lemonade either, the taste of citrus-fruits always makes me think of cleaning products (like drinking/eating from poorly rinsed dishes) .. and than adding tons of sugar? I'll pass (it goes for most detergents, why would I want my clothes to smell as if Ii just spilled peach-yogurt on them?). There must be a third way, the road less traveled, the road every one is missing, maybe not using the road altogether. Maybe turn those 🍋🍋 into dishwasher instead and rinse lifes mouth with it until it behaves and doesn't talk back anymore. Sometimes there is no alternative, only way is right through the black-hole. But this isn't about self-annihilation, ego-death or 'reinventing yourself'. What makes someone decide to become a trader, investor, speculator ? Most often it's just simple Greed . An evolutionary trait, gathering as much of something (food?) as possible in order to survive harsh times. The basic necessity mostly became redundant, yet the primal-drive stayed in tact. Many people feel the need to (ful)fill their lives with abundance of luxurious, needless goods. Fancy clothes, jewellery, cars. It goes right 🖐️ in 🖐️ with Fear . The fear of losing something (lose the stack of food, lose your life) I also have a need that wants to be fulfilled but it isn't money related, unfortunately money is the vessel that can get me there. Math When I was in school I hated math (who doesn't), I just couldn't get those stupid tables memorized. Then again, why should I, if I can't memorize what 7x7 is, I'll just have to calculate, (me as child: i know 7x10=70 just 1x7 add the 0 and 7+7=14 +7=21, so 70-21= 70-20=50-1=49 ) might take a bit longer .. but I'll get there. I'll do it MY WAY. And this is a very important concept for me, I am very rigid on things, I do not and cannot simply memorize things, I cannot just take things for granted, I have to understand the fundamentals and often details of the subject at hand in order to accept the whole. This mindset is me in my core, this I cannot change, this I will have to work with. To quote Michael "invest in water" Burry : I don't believe anything unless I understand it inside out. And even if I understand something, it is not uncommon that I disagree with accepted view (even if it's a Nobel laureate). (I did NOT know of his quote until I searched for a fitting one, the similarities are astonishing) Programming In the early 90's I pondered on the idea of learning to program (imagine writing cool games like Wolf3D yourself some day .. other boring reasons too). I started trying Basic and Pascal, to no avail. Memorizing all the codes ? The real incentive just wasn't there. Using Windows 3.1 and Windows95 (thnx Bill Gates: "Learning from mistakes and constantly improving products is a key in all successful companies." and man did they improve things 🤦) wasn't exactly a picnic either, so I tried this wondrous "new" OS called Linux, even though I come from the DOS generation, I couldn't get used to it and there where no alternatives to my programs and games at that time. Psychology Friendships, relationships, any -🚢 really, weren't always easy for me. It took me well into my young adulthood (no ship) until I fully realized that I do not need much of that but what's more, I don't want too much of that. as Anthony Hopkins once said: "I am not very good with relationships. With anyone. I can't be locked up with anyone for too long." and "I am a bit of a solitude person - a solitary personality. I like being on my own. I don't have any major friendships or relationships with people." As a toddler, in the stroller, I was already silently observing everything that I saw in contrast to other children being much more reactive to their surrounding.(I was more "Think, don't do" as to "Do, don't think" ) There is so much to be learned by just watching and listening. Passively not actively. Years go by, doing what a person does, a job here a job there, hobbies and all sorts of time wasting things like arguing. Arguing and disagreeing with neighbors about letting their dogs piss against our stuff and 💩 in front of our house, cats 💩 in our yard, parking cars thereby blocking our driveway, loud music, stench of all sorts, them or their children vandalizing your property (on camera - yet no-one intervenes), you name it, I reckon you have neighbors too 🙄 --for some reason it always escalates into more annoyances instead of resolving issues (people are mostly self-centered, arrogant, inconsiderate pieces of Dunning-Kruger 💩) Disagreeing with mechanics after the n-th time they ❤️ you over, I taught myself to do ALL repairs myself, welding, head-gasket, brakes .. the car is 30years old, so yeah, there IS work. I've always tried to repair everything myself. I come from a milieu that was about durability and not luxury (there wasn't much around so one had to make do) and I have to agree with Greta Thunberg on her "How dare you" speech. How dare you (all of you) rape our planet the way you do (Planned Obsolescence and mass consumerism at all cost). Do you not realize you not only jeopardize your own health and future but that of your children and ALL generations to come ? Of ALL living things ultimately ? so .. the years go by and life is catching up with you. You keep losing jobs (mostly because you "don't fit the team" and the occasional bankruptcy), losing friends, family is dwindling too. Hobbies don't interest you no more .. the dormant depression (besides your Dysthymia) comes crawling to the surface more and more, not only because you realize you'll never get out of this mess .. EVER, but also because you understand more and more about how ❤️-up this world (and by that I mean Human) really is. Something has to change, but you cannot figure out what. You cannot change yourself, your core-values, trying to 'just fit in more'. That's not gonna work. You cannot change the world either. You keep clashing with other people over and over again. You can't live with them ... You're pretty sure you have exhausted all possible (to you) ways of making a dent into this mess called life. What remains ? Buying a house, somewhere out there, away from ...'people' and all the troubles, a place where you can just be YOU. Without all the annoyance and aggravation. BUT .. nobody is going to just give you money or at least loan you some, can't get a mortgage either. So there you are, stuck in your own personal hell. ... you can't escape them. So there you are again, lost, you need that third option. Somewhere in between all of my misery, an acquaintance once said to me: "Maybe Bitcoin is something for you?!" While I always haggled or traded something throughout my life, it never occurred to me to do "Financial Trading". The learning curve of trading is something all traders have to do themselves, so I will not bore you with my specific path. I am amazed by how far I've come (yet at the same time stood still), in many aspects, previous knowledge comes in handy here and newly learned now completes puzzles I previously couldn't solve. Math, Programming and Psychology for example, they all meet back here (at least for me they do), only this time .. I actually DO (kind of) enjoy them (well mostly) 🤣 Math is self-evident .. you just need it. The programming I picked up initially because I wanted some alterations in some basic indicators (fit them to my needs) and from there it grew to writing complex strategies for back-testing. Psychology .. feel free to look at some of my other "Educationals", know yourself, know the competition and all of those 'opinions'. Am I there yet ? The strict goal of my venture, the house ? No. For the same reason as in real life, I have to much projects at the same time. It's mostly swing-trades for me, but because of the large time-frames, impatience, loss of focus, I start to look at other things, new strategies, scalps etc. then forgot to enter at the right time and .. want to talk about self-loathing? (expert right here, this ***damn idiot could have been very done by now, if he'd payed attention and not pulled all the orders last minute .. over and over again ). Day-trading and scalps .. can't really put in the hours needed because of other obligations and trouble with focus. I need to trade when I can, not just when the market presents itself (albeit that's how one should). I have nothing to show for from all that life has thrown at me and all I have done with it. Except maybe for all the brain-filling I have gathered. I'm not even close to buying my house - my freedom yet. While I judge people very hard, what most people don't see is, that I judge myself so much harder. Maybe you think I am a hypocrite, arrogant, narcissistic, or just no longer 'my own entity' .. I don't care, if anything I'm the biggest loser of them all .. for I can not reach that bar I set so obviously 'low' for myself, every single time, (would I rather want to live in self-deceit like they do?). Unforgiving of my own mistakes: "if I let this slip by .. I'm prone to do it again .. and again, how will I ever learn". Almost everything a person can be called, I've been called, the good and the bad. The more my knowledge of things grows, the more the duality inside me grows with it (the frequency shortens, the amplitude widens). The more the void takes over as well. The goal losing its importance. All becomes meaningless. Did trading do this to me or was it ultimately inevitable ? Just a path that had to be taken ? By writing it all down I do not seek approval, confirmation, attention, affirmation or donation. It is just something I have to do, as a part of the road taken. Only I can make changes in my life. In this pitch-black tunnel of depression and 'far worse things', I sometimes can see the very faint shimmering of this tiny little Candle, be it red, be it green, bringing back some hope, even if only for brief moments, will I succeed, it remains to be seen.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Je_Buurman
Perseverance - this story is nutsTrading is just one of the many ' hobbies ' i have or had, another one is picking berries and nuts. Now being Autumn is/was busy season, everywhere you looked, nuts. Hazelnuts, Walnuts, Chestnuts, NUTS. On bushes and trees, in the fields, the forest, on the street, in the houses .. even most of my neighbors are nuts (err .. different story .. yet VERY much related to why I went into trading in the first .. and second place). Even though my mother already liked, and tried to introduce us to, what nature has to offer for free .. being children .. we didn't pay attention nor cared all that much for that. Many years ago, for what ever reason at that time, i started to notice just the vast amount of hazel- and walnuts in our area .. and started picking them. As years passed by I didn't just randomly pick them, i started planning when, how and where to go about it. While keeping my game up, readjusting my 'strategies' I couldn't help but notice how others started to follow my lead (for some reason people here could not be bothered with it until they noticed me doing it) and tried to emulate me (yes I am fully aware of just how narcissistic this may sound .. don't care, people close to me know this to be true). They didn't have my ' plans ' so they just ' went about it ', greedy as they are they started jerking on the branches, ripping of leaves and unripe fruits and nuts. Nature has everything laid out in nicely recognizable patterns, structured events, cycles. There was this guy named Ralph, there wasn't so much for market as there is today, but much like I started noticing the nuts on the street, Ralph noticed reoccurring patterns, which ultimately climaxed into an abysmal crash, shortly after that he formulated his set of rules, let's call them "The 12345abc rule" . After many years, the markets matured more and more, people noticed that those rules often fell short .. so what do you do then ? You blame your lack of knowing them ? You throw them out ? .. oh no .. you add more rules (more is always better!!11). Eventually that rule became known as the "12345-333-535-33333-abc-w-xyz-fibonacci" rule .. it still falls short .. but hey, the theory is solid !!1un, let's continue using it and just readjust the count if invalidated .. and readjust ..and readjust .. and readjust .. Look at any one of those Waver-charts, the vast majority keeps invalidating, there is no consistence, why then keep tearing of those leaves and branches ? There are plenty other, far simpler and more fruitful "magic ball methods" out there. Imo there are two categories of traders. You could divide by smart and dumb money .. not going there (Institutional vs Retail - they all point to the other with disgust screaming and arguing "The apple is ROUND" - "No you idiot, it's RED", not noticing they both want the same (make money trading) yet use totally different mind- and rule-sets).. fruitless, useless, redundant discussions .. (Like an elephant telling a bird to stop chirping and start trumpeting, while the bird wants him to chirp) No, the division is as follows: The ones that trade with the trend and the once that go against it . The ones that follow trend just do that, trending up ? go long , either in trend or in pullback : down ? short : vice-versa -- There is just one problem there, a trend is only a trend .. until it's not (and that is where the real trading 'fun' begins). With nut-hunting, you have to start before season starts, you can not know when the first ripe ones fall out of the trees and bushes, you continue until you no longer find any (or until you decide you have enough) (in trading this would mean: start buying before expected/estimated bottom and continue to sell after the expected/estimated top) The other category of traders, the ones that "go against trend" are the ones that try to predict the lows and highs in advance, trying to predict ' reversals ' (those categories partially overlap since buying a pullback temporarily would go against trend). Both parties will (usually)/(try to) use some sort of drawing (support, resistance) and sometimes other tools (indicators or fundamental market assessments) in hopes for the advantage. One could say that "smart money" consists for the most part (again, overlapping categories) of "trend traders" . The ones that are so overly greedy with idle hopes of getting the full "swing" are, of course, mostly "retailers" . .. one could also make a claim about the 'Contrarians' being a third group, they are counter to .. ehm .. yeah, in a market where everyone gets served/ has a part, what do you want to "counter" here, the 'herd' ? (Pareto distribution..)? So just like the other nuts going out to find people, the guys smashing trees, tearing leaves and breaking branches ended up with little or no usable nuts yet did a lot of work to get there .. and I got out every day just looking and observing .. and pulled the trigger at the right time (made a killing this year, ended up with more on that one day, than the combined season 'harvest' of any previous year). so you see .. perseverance is key .. stick with something .. get better at it, adjust, readjust
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Je_Buurman
1