Buy-sell-signals
Brent Crude: $44.50 is breaking 🛢TECHNICALS: Morning traders! Brent crude is reaching its highest level since early March on US stimulus hopes and ahead of the EIA oil inventory data. Strong breakout candle forming on the 1-hour chart.
RISK SENTIMENT: Risk-on this morning, supporting higher oil prices.
HOW TO TRADE: Looking for a pullback to previous resistance and trading pullback weakness. Strength in the correction might send oil back into its previous range, so be aware of a possible fake breakout!
AUDJPY Detailed Analysis - Short SetupAccording to this week’s JPY COT report we can see that the Yen is stacking up even more long contract positions. We can expect it to hold a strong position among most of the pairs surely till the end of the month.
AUDJPY has been in an uptrend since the false breakout in March 2020 where it reached the 60.000 mark near the monthly critical area. Now it has passed several critical zones without doing any correction and from a technical perspective it is a good time to do so before moving up towards the 85.000 area.
The following structures give us a clue of how it will happen:
1. A formation of a reverse head and shoulders can be seen on the weekly timeframe.
2. A “M” formation can be seen on the 4H timeframe.
On the 4H timeframe we are in a closed triangle structure which is coming to its end. After the strong close on Friday we can expect a second top in the daily critical area near 76.500. Afterwards the rejection will take place.
Our target will be the 70.000 mark.
Happy Traidng!
Silver Short Setup (XAGUSD) - Detailed AnalysisAccording to the last Silver COT Report we can see that it continues dominating “long” contract size positions. And that’s why I expect the price to go for a second top near the 22.50000 area.
After price closed above the 4H critical zone at 19.60000 we saw a strong upward momentum towards the monthly critical near 22.80000. Price closed above two critical zones without doing any corrections, so now it is the right moment to do one.
We have 2 good trading opportunities:
1. Since we can see the bullish dominance from a COT perspective, we can expect the price to receive support from the monthly critical near 21.00000 and then create a second top near 22.80000. After that, a strong correction will come into the play. It will most likely go down towards the daily critical near the 18.00000 mark. But we must be cautious with the 4H critical zone near 19.50000. A second top will be a good indicator for the build-up of a “M” structure.
2. The second possible sell entry will be at the neckline of our new “M” formation near 20.80000. It also aligns perfectly with the 0.618 Fibonacci level of the previous downwave and with the monthly critical area.
Good indicators for an entry will be strong rejection from the critical zones!
Happy Trading!
GBPJPY Weekly Analysis - Long SetupRed zones- critical zones based on the daily time frame
Blue zones – critical zones based on the 4h time frame
Orange zones – critical zones based on the 1h time frame
According to last week’s GBP COT report we can see a strong increase in the long “contract” sizes. Even a decrease in short positions can be seen within the long-term investors. This can lead to a strong break above the 136.000 mark.
From a technical perspective we are in a closed triangle on the daily timeframe since the beginning of March. Its bottom and upper trendlines have been respected multiple times and right now we are just above the bottom one. On the 1H timeframe we are in a closed triangle structure since the July 6 and we are at its end. According to the COT data we can expect a second attempt for a close above the daily critical 136.000 area.
Crucial is here to enter at the right moment and for that we have 2 good possibilities:
1. Price respects the daily and 1H bottom trendlines near the 134.100 area and goes straight towards the daily critical 136.000 mark, creating multiple higher highs along the way.
2. Price does a false breakout from both triangles and goes towards the “W” neckline on the 4H timeframe near 133.600 where it gets rejected. Afterwards it will go for the 136.000 mark and as mentioned above, it will create multiple higher highs along the way.
A strong rejection on the 1H/4H timeframes from one of the zones will be a good indicator to enter.
Happy trading!
BTCUSD Multi-Timeframe Analysis Orange trendline – critical zone based on the weekly timeframe
Red zone – critical zone based on the daily timeframe
Blue zone- critical zone based on the 4H timeframe
Blue dash line – showing the closed triangle on the 4H timeframe
For the past 2 months we can see that the monthly trendline played a huge role as a resistance point for the BTC price. After it reached it, a strong rejection followed right away. Since the end of June, a closed triangle formation can be seen and right now based on volatility and price structure we are finally at its end. Most likely price will break above it in order to try reaching the monthly trendline once again. After this happens a strong rejection needs to take place. And a false breakout near the 10000.0 will be a good sign + a close bellow the monthly trendline.
After we see the rejection, a good TP1 will be the first daily critical near the 8700.0 area. If the price continues downwards, TP2 should be the second daily critical near the 7500.0 mark.
Happy Trading!
EURUSD - Multi-Timeframe Detailed SetupYellow zones- critical zones based on the monthly/weekly timeframe
Red zones- critical zones based on the daily timeframe
Blue horizontal lines – critical levels based on the 4h timeframe
According to last week’s EUR COT Report we can see that the long contract sizes are not only dominating the long/mid-term trends, but also there was a huge increase from last week as well. Crucial for the future price development will be the next COT report.
After price got rejected from the monthly critical near the 1.14200 area on the 10. June, it made a small correction towards the daily critical at the 1.11800 mark.
No further strong sell pressure was noticed after the rejection. Multiple attempts were made to break into the monthly critical and none of them had a strong rejection as the one on the 10. June. This created a new uptrend on the 4H time frame and it has also built new higher highs. The correction towards the higher lows was done due to the new upper-trendline which also plays the role of a resistance zone.
Now we have 2 possible scenarios and next week’s COT Report will be the decisive factor for which one will happen:
1. Price is already doing a small correction after the attempt to break the monthly critical. Then it goes for a close above it, respecting the upper trendline. After that, a touch with the upper trendline of the closed triangle near the 1.16200 will happen. And then finally the price will be able to do a strong correction towards the 1.11000 mark.
2. Price loses its buy force after a second attempt for a close above the monthly critical is made. This will result in a new downtrend towards the 1.11000 mark, while creating a “M” formation on the 4H timeframe. In order of this to happen, a strong rejection from the liquidation zone above the monthly critical (1.14300) must take place.
Happy Trading!
CHFJPY Multi Time Frame Detailed Analysis - Short SetupYellow zones- critical zones based on the monthly/weekly time frame
Red zones- critical zones based on the daily time frame
Blue zones – critical zones based on the 4h time frame
Orange line - critical point based on the monthly time frame
According to last week’s COT Report- the Swiss Franc is in a strong position, based on its bullish positions, but the lack of increase of dealer contracts may be a sign of a sudden change in directions. The COT Data on JPY is also bullish , but a more precise picture on the future direction will wait for another 2,3 weeks.
From a monthly perspective we’re in a channel since the beginning of 2001 and it has been respected multiple times throughout the years. The last contact with the channel was in November 2015 when it made a false breakout above the upper-trend line. Now we should be in a downtrend till we touch the bottom trend line .
On the weekly time frame, we are in a closed triangle formation which can be the trigger for the continuation towards the bottom of the channel. For the past month there have been 4 rejections from the nearby monthly critical area. This week was the strongest rejection among them all.
On the daily time frame, we have 2 critical zones that can be decisive for our scenario to work. We need to monitor them frequently. On this time frame we can see the possible build up for a “M” formation which will be a good confirmation for our plan.
On the 4H time frame: The close above the monthly critical was a definitive sign that the price will continue climbing, but it then got rejected and so the reverse head & shoulders structure also failed. Surely a lot of buyers got stuck in that zone. The entry point at the neckline of our future “M” formation must be confirmed with a strong rejection. After that the price must go towards the bottom trend line of the weekly closed triangle.
Hope you enjoyed my analysis. If you did, please leave a like, comment or follow. Thank you!
Happy Trading!
XAUUSD Long Yellow zones- critical zones based on the monthly time frame
Red zones- critical zones based on the daily time frame
Blue zones – critical zones based on the 4h time frame
Like I said in my 1H Gold analysis before the price went up - last COT Gold report came out bullish and no changes that could indicate a short momentum are noticed.
We are at the highest price since 2011 and the 1800.000 area has been finally reached. Which means that we have a 4h candle close above the monthly critical area. Now it is important that we see a strong bullish confirmation above the upper-trendline of the closed triangle structure. This will be a strong bullish confirmation.
There 2 scenarios:
1. Most likely the price will go towards the second monthly critical above the 1855.000 area and when it reaches it a strong rejection may come. If this happens, support from the 1800.00 zone is expected.
2. Less likely to happen: a rejection from the 1800.000. This will make the price fall towards the 4h critical point near the 1745.000 mark, where a second bullish attempt may take place.
Happy Trading!
DAX pushing above key resistance, but more hurdles are waitingThe DAX managed to push above the key 11,200 level today, but it could have difficulties to keep up with the recent bull run. The 200-day MA, 61.8% Fib and a rising trendline resistance all await near 11,700.
Although some major market reports came in better than expected, such as PMIs, the eurozone is still far away from a recovery. I am sitting on my hands for this one.
EUR/USD: Correlations update (Part 2)Part 2/2:
Looking at the recent developments in interest rate differentials, it looks like a small divergence has formed between the pair and German/US 2y yields. This could be a bearish sign in the short-term.
Che_Trader Swing Strategy - 2017 to 2020 Results vs BTC holdThis is my main strategy and the one that is being executed through BOT live since several months ago.
I was due a post with the general results and a year to year analysis compared to the performance of hold BTC.
All trades include 0.15% fees+slippage.
|*****************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
| General stats from 2017 to 2020 are in the bottom, These are:
| (**All data include 0.15% fees+slippage what is more than double the normal fees**)
|
| - 32899% Gains (compound)
|- 146 transactions
|- 18.44% Max drawdown
|*****************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
The year-by-year analysis is very interesting:
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|2017 Hold result
|
|+1260
|%
|
|
|
| CheTrader Swing Strategy 2017 results:
|
| - +1096 % Gains
|- 38 transactions
|- 14.47% max drawdown
|
|
|The 2017 profits are very similar, a bit smaller, so you can expect the bot run well in next bull run.
|This is something you'd expect, but it's hard to get in a swing bot.
|*****************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
|*****************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
|2018 Hold Result
|
|-72%
|
|
|
| CheTrader Swing Strategy 2018 results:
|
| - +395.4% Gains
|- 42 transactions
|- 16% max drawdown
|
| In 2018 we earned almost 395% in usd. This means that if we would have run the bot during 2017-2018 we would keep the 2017 earnings, and even more, we would multiply them by X4
|
|This is very significant.
|
|A sensible example, if at the end of 2017 we had 1 BTC valued at $13300, to hold that BTC until the end of 2018 would be worth about $3700.
|But if we had run the swing strategy it would be $13300+395% that is,
|$65835 which in addition, to the BTC worth only $3700 gives us a final result of 17.8 BTC
*****************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
|*****************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
|2019 Hold Result
|
|+95%
|
|
|
| CheTrader Swing Strategy 2019 results:
|
| - +322% Gains
|- 40 transactions
|- 18.44% max drawdown
|
| 2019 was a great year for the bot, winning more than three times the performance of BTC, in an irregular year, with many moments of chop.
|*****************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
| *****************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
|To get access, you can send me a PM here or at a link in the tradingview profile.
|*****************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
AMRN buyer and seller get readyAMRN price touched weekly strong support level and also has possibility go to short. wait for abc pattern for long and wait for breakout for short. I also watching this one .
Bitcoin Buy/Sell SignalsUsing RSI to determine if the asset is oversold (x<=30) or overbought (x>=70)
Using MACD to determine bull or bear signals. (MACD(blue) > Signal(orange), bullish) or (MACD(blue) < Signal (orange), bearish)
