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Is Gold at Its Brightest?On the charts, gold prices are continuing their strong upward momentum, breaking through key resistance levels and moving towards testing new highs. This is supported by data from the Kitco News surveys, which show strong optimism from both professionals and retail investors on the outlook for gold. Technical analysis on the 4-hour chart shows that gold prices have broken through key resistance levels and are entering a “new price discovery zone”, a period that could see high price volatility due to the lack of resistance. The next resistance level on the chart is located at around $2,600/ounce, and this will be the next target that investors are aiming for. With the Fed expected to cut interest rates on September 18, along with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, gold is expected to continue to receive attention as a safe-haven asset. Investors should closely monitor the Fed’s statements and the geopolitical situation to adjust their investment strategies accordingly. In addition, the demand for physical gold remains high in the context of devaluation of domestic currencies, showing that gold is not only an investment channel but also a means of protecting assets. The current growth in gold prices and the possibility of continued growth in the long term is a positive signal for those who are looking for safety in their investments.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Naoomi
SPY: Short-Term Selloff Anticipated After Fed Rate Cut DecisionIf you haven`t bought the recent dip on SPY: Now you need to know that as the Federal Reserve approaches its rate cut decision this week, speculation is high that we may see a larger-than-expected cut of 50 basis points rather than the anticipated 25. This could trigger a short-term selloff in equities, including the SPY (S&P 500 ETF), despite the initial market reaction. The market often exhibits a “buy the rumor, sell the news” behavior, and this situation could be no different. With expectations set for a 25 basis point cut, a surprise 50 basis point reduction might lead to concerns about the underlying economic conditions. This could prompt a selloff in major indices, including SPY, as traders and investors react to the Fed’s unexpected move. In the immediate aftermath of the Fed decision, SPY might see a brief uptick as market participants adjust their positions and optimism prevails. However, this short-term rally could be quickly overshadowed by a broader correction. As the market digests the implications of the Fed's actions and potential economic concerns come to light, SPY is likely to experience a pullback. For those looking to capitalize on this potential downturn, the $550 strike price puts expiring on October 18, 2024, could be a prudent choice. These puts offer a strategic way to hedge against or profit from the anticipated short-term decline in SPY. Given the expected correction following the Fed's rate cut, this option could provide significant value as SPY faces downward pressure. While SPY may experience an initial rise in response to the Fed’s decision, the broader market sentiment is likely to shift towards risk aversion, leading to a correction in the weeks following the announcement. By October 18, the broader market and SPY could be reflecting these adjustments, making the $550 puts a timely investment. In summary, while SPY might see some early gains next week, a correction is expected to follow as the market reacts to the Fed’s decision. The $550 strike price puts expiring on October 18, 2024, could offer a valuable opportunity for those anticipating this short-term volatility.
AMEX:SPYShort
by TopgOptions
BTC Bitcoin Brief Rise, But Correction LoomsIf you haven`t sold the top on Bitcoin: Now you need to know that as the Federal Reserve's highly anticipated rate cut approaches, the market is bracing for potential volatility, and Bitcoin could be no exception. While many expect a modest 25 basis point cut, a more aggressive 50 basis point reduction is also on the table. This larger-than-expected move could trigger a “buy the rumor, sell the news” scenario, affecting not only traditional assets like the S&P 500 (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) but also risk assets like Bitcoin. Initially, Bitcoin may see a slight uptick in price at the beginning of next week. This short-term rise could be fueled by optimism and increased demand for alternative assets as the market digests the Fed's decision. Bitcoin has historically benefited from periods of loose monetary policy, and in the immediate aftermath of the rate cut, it might experience some buying pressure. However, this rally could be short-lived. With broader markets such as SPY and QQQ expected to correct following the Fed decision, Bitcoin is likely to follow suit. Given its high correlation with risk-on assets during periods of market stress, Bitcoin may see a sharp pullback as traditional equity markets start to sell off. Traders could also unwind their positions in Bitcoin alongside stocks, leading to a broader market correction in both traditional and crypto assets. In the short term, a Fed rate cut that exceeds expectations might signal concerns about the underlying economy, leading to heightened volatility across the board. As risk appetite wanes, Bitcoin's upward momentum could quickly reverse, aligning with the expected correction in SPY and QQQ.
by TopgOptions
RUT2K Short-Term Selloff Likely After Fed Rate Cut DecisionIf you haven’t seen my RUT 2000 prediction for 2024: Now you need to know that as the Federal Reserve’s rate cut decision looms, speculation is rising that we may see a larger-than-expected 50 basis point cut instead of the anticipated 25. While rate cuts are typically a positive for equities, this aggressive move could lead to a short-term selloff, particularly in smaller-cap stocks, represented by the RUT Russell 2000. The reasoning is tied to the market's well-known "buy the rumor, sell the news" behavior. With expectations already priced in for a 25 bps cut, a surprise 50 bps cut could trigger concerns over economic health, prompting investors to de-risk. This would likely lead to a temporary selloff in riskier, smaller-cap stocks, with RUT2K potentially taking a hit in the near term. Given this outlook, I’m considering the $204 strike price puts expiring on October 18, 2024. These options could provide a solid hedge or a potential profit opportunity if the market reacts negatively to the Fed’s decision in the short term, as I expect smaller-cap stocks to feel the pressure more acutely than large-cap counterparts. Despite this expected volatility, the broader market should recover before the end of the month, once investors fully digest the news. By November 5th, on U.S. election day, we could even see new all-time highs in major indices like the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (NDX). Small caps, however, may take longer to rebound, adding further value to a short-term put position in IWM. Fed Chair Jerome Powell appears motivated to support a strong market ahead of the elections, which could benefit Democrats. Former President Donald Trump has indicated he would not reappoint Powell if he returns to office, potentially giving Powell incentive to maintain market stability leading up to November. In summary, while a larger-than-expected rate cut could cause IWM ( Russell 2000 ETF ) to face short-term turbulence, the market will likely stabilize by the end of September. The $204 strike price puts expiring on October 18, 2024, offer a timely opportunity for traders seeking to capitalize on this brief volatility.
TVC:RUTShort
by TopgOptions
QQQ Short-Term Selloff After the Fed's Rate Cut DecisionIf you haven`t bought the recent dip in QQQ: Then you need to know that as we approach the Federal Reserve's rate cut decision this week, there is growing speculation that the central bank may implement a larger-than-expected 50 basis point cut, instead of the anticipated 25. While rate cuts are typically viewed as bullish for markets, this unexpected move could trigger a short-term selloff, particularly in tech-heavy indices like the QQQ. Why? The market tends to operate on a "buy the rumor, sell the news" mentality. Investors have already priced in expectations of a modest 25 bps cut, so if the Fed delivers a more aggressive 50 bps cut, it may signal heightened concern over economic conditions, causing traders to pull back. Such a scenario could spook the market, leading to a temporary selloff in major indices like the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). In light of this, it may be worth considering a bearish strategy for the short term. Specifically, the $475 strike price puts expiring on September 20 could be a prudent option, as they stand to gain value in the event of a selloff following the Fed decision. The short-term market reaction could make these puts a strategic play for traders anticipating a dip. While the reaction to the Fed decision could be sharp in the short term, it’s unlikely to be long-lasting. Market participants will soon digest the news, and I expect a recovery by the end of the month. In fact, by November 5th—U.S. election day—we could see new all-time highs in both the S&P 500 (SPX) and the Nasdaq 100 (NDX). Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been keen on maintaining market stability, which could give the Democrats a slight edge in the upcoming elections. After all, former President Donald Trump has stated he wouldn’t reappoint Powell if re-elected, possibly adding a political dimension to the Fed’s moves. In conclusion, while the QQQ might face near-term turbulence due to the Fed’s potentially larger-than-expected rate cut, the broader market is likely to recover soon, with tech stocks regaining their upward momentum as the election approaches. The $475 strike price puts expiring on September 20 could serve as a timely hedge during this brief period of volatility.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by TopgOptions
EUR/USD: Recovery or Further Decline?The current EUR/USD chart shows a positive trend with important test points, but even though it is moving in a fairly stable pattern, the market's hesitation can provide opportunities for investors to pay attention. On the daily chart, EUR/USD has demonstrated its ability to maintain levels above two moving averages (EMA 34 and EMA 89), a positive sign that shows the strength of the current trend. However, there are also signs of hesitation with recent candles being small and having long shadows, indicating uncertainty in the market. Investors and traders should closely watch the support level at 1.10750, where a resumption of the uptrend could be confirmed if the price breaks through this level convincingly. The key resistance on the upside is at 1.1100, a level that could test the resolve of buyers in the coming period.
by Naoomi
Gold Knocks on New Highs: What Does It Mean for Investors?In the recent trading session, gold prices recorded a strong growth, breaking through several important resistance levels, and are now approaching the new red resistance zone on the chart. With this increase, gold prices have the potential to challenge higher levels in the near future, supported by several technical and macro factors. The 34 EMA and 89 EMA are both showing bullish trends as they maintain an upward slope. The position of gold prices above both these EMAs is a sign of a sustainable uptrend that could continue. The current red area on the chart marks a major resistance level that gold prices need to overcome to continue the uptrend. A successful breakthrough of this level could lead to a new bullish phase, while a failure could trigger a price correction.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Naoomi
1
Bullish Opportunity Upon Breaking Fibonacci ResistanceThe current EUR/USD chart shows important reaction levels using Fibonacci levels, which paints a notable technical picture for traders interested in the pair. The 0.618 Fibonacci level ($1.10758) is the key resistance level that the price needs to overcome to confirm the uptrend. This level has seen some market reactions, and if overcome, the price could potentially move towards $1.11540 and $1.11929. The 0.5 Fibonacci level ($1.10620) is now an important support level. Stability above this level could be seen as a basis for further upside. This level could also be seen as an entry point for traders who are optimistic about the pair's upside potential. Looking to the downside, the support at $1.10034 is the latest low and the level to watch if the downtrend resumes. A break below this level could indicate that the bears are in control and pose a serious challenge for the bulls to hold the price higher. Recommended Strategy: Traders should consider buying if the price firmly breaks above $1.10758 with short-term targets at $1.11540 and $1.11929, while placing a stop-loss below the $1.10034 support to limit risk if the market does not move as expected.
by Naoomi
TON Toncoin Potential Sell-OffIf you haven`t bought TON before the breakout: Now you need to know that on August 24, 2024, the arrest of Telegram founder Pavel Durov by French authorities sent shockwaves through both the platform and its cryptocurrency, Toncoin (TON). Durov's arrest, reportedly tied to illegal activities on Telegram, has been widely seen as an attack on free speech, which has paradoxically boosted interest in both Telegram and Toncoin. This spotlight on Durov and his platforms presents both challenges and opportunities. While the surge in activity signals increased attention, the future is uncertain. The ongoing investigation and heightened regulatory scrutiny are likely to impact TON's market performance. Investors and users are closely watching for further legal actions, as they could have significant consequences for Telegram and Toncoin. With the regulatory landscape in flux, TON remains a risky investment until the legal situation stabilizes. My price target for TON is $2.15.
Short
by TopgOptions
CPI Momentum and Fed Rate Cut ExpectationsThe gold chart is currently trading in a narrow range, indicating a sideways trend, reflecting the market’s anticipation of news that could have a major impact on prices. This sideways movement occurs between two key levels: resistance near $2,525 and support at $2,472. This stability has been partly maintained by the latest US inflation data, which showed that core CPI remained stable, suggesting that the Fed may not change monetary policy in the near term. However, any major changes from the Fed’s decision could trigger a strong rally in gold, especially if interest rates are cut deeper than expected, which would weaken the USD and increase the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Naoomi
Gold Price Rises Due to CPI and FedAmidst volatile global financial markets, gold prices have recently shown a slight increase, mainly due to a series of important economic and political news. Investors’ attention has been focused on key economic indicators such as the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is closely watched as it can directly influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions. A stronger-than-expected CPI growth is typically a sign of rising inflation, which could prompt the Fed to raise interest rates to curb inflation. However, in the current environment, any significant increase in CPI could be seen as an opportunity for the Fed to cut rates rather than raise them, given concerns about a global economic slowdown and current political uncertainties. A rate cut would reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, boosting gold prices. Gold is often seen as a safe investment in times of uncertainty and inflation, when the value of other financial assets may decline. Recent stock market volatility and political instability in many parts of the world have also contributed to the rise in the value of gold as a safe haven asset.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Naoomi
Strong Bearish Pressure Below EMAsThe EUR/USD pair is showing a strong bearish bias, as shown by the 34 EMA crossing below the 89 EMA, a classic bearish sign. This suggests that the market could continue this trend as long as the selling pressure has not subsided, especially as the price continues to trade below both EMAs. On the Fibonacci Retracement chart, the current price zone of EUR/USD is near the 1.1038 level, an area that has served as support for previous rallies. A break of this level could take the pair down to the next support level of 1.09826, according to the 1.618 Fibonacci ratio, which if broken could open a deeper downtrend. Entry Point: Long Position: If the EUR/USD pair rebounds and breaks above the EMA resistance, a short-term long position could be considered. Enter when price breaks above 1.1080. Sell: Enter a sell order if price breaks below 1.1038 support and continues to trend lower. Take Profit (TP): Buy: Place TP around 1.1130, close to the next resistance level on the chart. Sell: Place TP at 1.09826, in line with the 1.618 Fibonacci level where price could find new support. Stop Loss (SL): Buy: Place SL below EMA 89, around 1.1040, to minimize risk if the recovery does not occur as expected. Sell: Place SL above 1.1080, just above EMA 34, to protect the order from sudden moves that could push price back into the uptrend.
by Naoomi
Gold is sideways before the newsAt the end of the week, the world gold price traded around 2,497 USD/ounce, with strong fluctuations during the week but not out of control of investors. In particular, the US employment report put great pressure on the market. The gold price is trading below the EMA 89 moving average but above the EMA 34, indicating an unclear trend and needs further observation. The EMA 34 can temporarily support the price, while the EMA 89 is a strong resistance level. On the daily chart, gold has formed a "sideways" pattern over the past month, reflecting the market's hesitation before economic data and the Fed's monetary policy. The current major support level is 2,480 USD/ounce and the resistance level is 2,520 USD/ounce.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Naoomi
2