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Buyandhold

10 reasons why being an active investor surpasses buy & holdMum and dad buy & hold (also known as "buy & forget" and "buy & hope") gets heavily promoted as some holy grail. Take advantage of the market rewards with the least effort, stress, and without having to pay fees to money managers, fees that will eat your retirement. To Bitcoin holders this is the greatest thing and they dream of wealth, they think they found the ultimate "best performing asset". But professionals don't really care about crypto, and anyone that is able to be somewhat competitive sees it as really bad. 1- The front page of this idea. Bitcoin holders are at 1.75R. In 3 years. 2- The risk adjusted returns are terrible. UBS Global Allocation Fund (buy & hold everything) has a max drawdown of close to 50% for a yearly return of something like 2.5%. The S&P averages about 7% a year and has drawdowns of 30%, 50%, and so on. Bitcoin has gone up 500% since september 2017, as well as march 2019, but it casually gets 85% drawdowns. Managed funds typically provide small returns for small risk, for example 5% annual returns and a max drawdown of 5%. Quants via ultra diversification (on assets and in time) get only green months, very little drawdowns and decent returns. Active traders, if they are good, get small volatility and consistent slow and steady growth. 3- It is what gets advised to noobs in investing as well as other competitive activities, like esports. Warren Buffett advises "just buy and hold". There is an equivalent. The game league of legends is popular so I think most people will get it. Players at the top say to poor players desperate to climb "just pick annie and roam", play an easy champion and rinse & repeat something simple. But no one is seeing armies of Annie one tricks in the higher elos. It's stupid advice that does not work. And if it does it's really the worse, second hand, "better than nothing" thing to do. 4- "Buy & Hold" is a one size fits all method, but there is no one size fits all opportunity. First an exception. People looking to pay their children university, or retire, have a 1 size fits all opportunity: fixed income. There are so many bonds and other contracts with all kinds of maturation dates, it's impossible to not find something right. Kid goes to uni in 10 year: Find a safe decent 10Y bond (still have to hedge currency risk if it is foreign...), collect some interest every year and get the entire amount in 10 years. So here you already see what can go wrong. What if you needed your money in March 2020? Bitcoin is down 80%. Sell? What if you bought and held Japan stock market and by the time you retire it's down in the gutter? Wait 30 years or more? 5- Some of the favored tools of passive investors do NOT buy & hold themselves. The vast majority US stocks go to zero. The S&P 500 which is buy & holders favorite itself does not buy & hold, performant stocks are added all the time, and poor ones are removed. So there is a fundamental flaw. And the S&P 500 strategy is as dumb as it gets, it simply buys winners sells losers. What if growth gets more volatile? It will be buying and selling all the time, or if there is a rule not to sell too often, hold losers too long and miss winners too. Besides the S&P 500 is only for the US and no matter what you think bull or bear it is basically betting on 1 single economy so still a simple buy & hold on a single thing (even with all the adding winners and removing losers). 6- Number 6 is abstract. Max simplicity and a total lack of effort and risk management cannot possibly create a reward. One cannot help but to think nothing can be free, there is no magical energy well, matter does not pop out of thin air, and in the same way there is no magical trick to get money without doing anything. Every critter on this planet needs to work to get something in return. In other activities being passive leads to no result. Do nothing, nothing happens. Why would this be different? The power of greed? Losing or gaining weight requires some action, magic trick special diets still do not work, buildings don't build themselves even government contractors have to work at some point. 7- No one successful does it. There might be a few lucky exceptions, but never lucky enough to really get to the top. George Soros was or is active, Buffett is active, every billionaire and centamillionaire on the planet is active. I have never heard of passive buy & holders that happily retired. The only "retired" passive novices are the ones that got lucky, bought dot coms before they went ballistic, bought Bitcoin early enough... 8- You'll miss out on great opportunities Giant contangos, mispricing, very underpriced stocks... Imagine being underwater rather than full of cash when a certain investment is super undervalued. And look at Bitcoiners, rushing in to buy "the dip" in january 2018 and laughing at me when I suggested a price decline and being patient as I thought there would be opportunities. They end up holding some $16000 BTC, then add more as the price goes down because let's risk everything. Each $16000 Bitcoin they have is 4 $4000 Bitcoin they did not buy. After 3 years BTC made it to 22000 wow fantastic! From 16k to 22k. If they "risked missing out", did something else with their cash, and bought $5000 BTC this year they'd have more than quadrupled their money. When BTC makes it to 20k then drops to 3000 it easily has much more upside than downside. I always said I would not short under 5000 even when I said it will eventually go to zero (it 100% will). Buying a coinflip ultra risky casino chip with no stop loss when it is close to ath. Just so bad. There is a difference between timing every top and bottom which only twitter crypto traders do, and avoiding really stupid actions. 9- "Buy & Hold" is a hoax perpetrated on credulous retail investors to milk them. You know what reduces risk and adds liquidity in the market? Dumb money consistently throwing money in the pot. Institutional investors that are happy to promote this hoax sell when they consider prices to buy too high, we witness phenomenal crashes, and why would anyone choose to not sell high prices and just hold the bag? Institutions are literally dumping on willing dumb money that has no idea how low prices will go and how long the drawdown will last. While they recommend to "just buy and hold" their own holding periods have never been shorter. And many of the professionals that buy and hold are just getting more AUM out of it. We know for a fact they are scamming energy ETF "investors" (USO), day traders, Robinhood "investors" From Jim Cramer: “Pick a couple of stocks, you gun them in the morning, and then you hope people are stupid enough and they buy them.” Like institutions cannot wait 9:30 to buy their shares, no no they are in a hurry they have to get in at terrible prices in the pre-market. Hedge funds are happy to rob dumb money. No matter how, no matter the time horizon. 10- I have no crystal ball do you? This scam summed up: "Hello individual investors. Today, based on available info, try guessing what will happen in the quarter century, and then for the next 25 years discard any new info". Emotions & logic are on a spectrum, and this idea is not on the more logic side of it. It makes less sense than buying a lottery ticket. At least the ticket buyer can say he is having fun, a sort of little adrenaline rush, and lottery ticket buyers can use flawed logic saying they only pay little and in their lives they'll never pay as much (not even close) as what the reward is. But buy & holders cannot even say they are having fun. What fun? Fun forgetting about something? "I'm having fun being passive sitting on a bench and not playing basketball and not even watching it". See it makes no sense. Or fun watching your money disappear while you do nothing maybe? And I don't see how they could use flawed logic here "ye so I make a bet on the future with limited info and as more info becomes available I put my fingers in my ears and go lalala".
Education
by MrRenev
3
The Death of Buy and Hold. Stop Investing and Start TradingEver since the invention of the Mutual Fund, then IRAs, or even going back to the ownership of individual stocks, the “common man” has been taught to “Buy and Hold” when it comes to their investments. Even today, investors are taught to put their hard earned dollars in a “lock box” and told to "let it grow"... We are told things like “Let time be on your side”… “Don’t worry about that downturn, the economy always recovers”... “Start when you are young” and most disastrously, “Buy strong companies in an uptrend, those who have demonstrated consistent growth...” This article may be a revelation. This article may make some people angry about the past decisions they have made. And some might also also say “That guy doesn’t know what he’s talking about.” To explain this I’m going to have us look at three things: a Paradigm, a Parable, and a Pair of Powers. =============== The Paradigm of the Financial Markets. =============== This might be the most important of the three concepts I will talk about in this article. When we understand this one concept, this one paradigm, this one way of thinking will transform us from being a “consumer” of financial products to a “trader” of the financial markets. As traders or investors, we are putting our money into an entity known as the “Financial Market.” Whether the vehicle you are using is a company, a commodity, or a currency… a stock, an option, a futures contract, or a ForEx pair, every single “in and out” represents a transaction between a consumer and a producer or supplier. Now, why is this global pile of securities collectively called a "market”? Well, like any other market it’s a place where “products” are bought and sold. Just like the smartphone market, the automobile market, the ice cream market, and the farmer’s market, the financial market is EXACTLY the same… only we deal in virtual products that we buy and sell by clicking buttons and moving our mouse instead of having to warehouse our inventory and provide a storefront. So, IBM, is a *product*; Tesla is a *product*, Oil and Natural Gas are *products*, and the Euro, Yen, and Kiwi are *products*, no different than a Ford Focus, an iPhone, or a pint of Ben & Jerry’s. Now, in any transaction in any market, who is it that makes money, the consumer or the store owner? You guessed it… the store owner! For *decades* now (going on centuries, actually) we have been conditioned to be *consumers* in a market when it’s the *producers* which are the ones who make the money! We have to switch our thinking. We need to think like a store owner or retailer rather than a customer. Now, how is it that any retailer, any store, whether it’s the ice cream man or Amazon.com, makes their money? They find a way to buy products (inventory) at *wholesale* and sell those products to consumers at *retail*. What do retailers like Amazon and WalMart sell? ANYTHING and EVERYTHING that they can get their hands on where they can buy at wholesale, mark it up, and sell it to the consumer at retail. So how can we make money in the financial markets? Just like Ben and Jerry do in the Ice Cream market. Just like Ford does in the automotive market. And just like Apple does in the personal computing market. We need to do as the Amazon do. =============== The Parable of the Retirement Industry (A Totally True Work of Fiction) =============== Once upon a time (1975, actually) there was a meeting of all the FatCat bankers. They all were having a grand time sipping their whiskey, smoking their cigars, bragging about their riches and success but they all agreed that they wanted even MORE. Looking back at the Stock Market they noticed that S&P really hadn’t moved much in the last 20 years. They said to themselves, “You know, all we are doing is trading all this inventory among ourselves and price is just SITTING there… How can we create a DEMAND for our product so we can see it go UP in value?” In comes New Kid on the Block, John Bogle, founder of Vanguard Securities. “Gentlemen,” he said, “I’ve got a great idea… Let’s give every working man in America a bucket… we’ll call it a Mutual Fund. And we’ll tell them that THEY have to fill it with all kinds of stocks: industrial stocks, medical stocks, automotive stocks, power company stocks, telecom stocks, and the more and more people start ‘saving for their retirement’, the more people will be buying our ‘products’, there will be more and more DEMAND every year and BOOM - the price of our products will skyrocket! (Insert sinister ‘Muwahahaha' laugh here…) So the word gets out to the street and into the business world: Your employees now have the opportunity to save for their retirement using their own money! (Which took employers off the hook from providing their own pension programs as the 401k industry began to grow.) So year after year, more and more Americans bought into the program, and as demand surged, so did the market. For the next 25 years the S&P would see a bull run like NEVER before! So what happens for these 25 years is a natural effect of Supply and Demand. As the limited “supply” of available stocks is becoming consumed by the American workforce, demand goes up. And it works great…. For 25 years. BUT… what happens when those 20-30-and 40-somethings who are working and buying, working and buying, working and buying, creating all that DEMAND… What happens when they become 40-50-and 60-somethings who begin to retire? They begin SELLING those stocks (creating monthly retirement income) and now we start seeing a REDUCTION in demand and an INCREASE in supply as the “balance of power” shifts and there are now more Sellers than Buyers - and the tide now turns in the epic cosmic struggle that goes on in the financial markets day after day, year after year, minute by minute. So what happens to these retirees who have lost HALF their savings by the time 2002 rolls along? They have to stop the bleeding! They go back to work so they can (a) have income and (b) put MORE money into The System so they can reclaim the level of retirement income that they need to go back into retirement. So now they are no longer sellers, but they are once again buyers, driving the price of the ‘products’ in their portfolios back up to pre-crash levels as the balance of power shifts back into the hands of the buyers. Five years go by… The people went back to work see that their 401ks are back to pre-crash levels, they quit their jobs, and the cycle starts all over again when there are now more buyers than sellers. Ack!!!! Now come into the present day where the market is at all time highs. Price has been whipsawing for the last 24 months! What in the blue blazes is going on? The same thing that has been going on since the dawn of retail sales in an open market: products are being SOLD to customers at retail, and BOUGHT from them at wholesale. =============== The Pair of Powers =============== So how does this happen? The first power is the power of FEAR and GREED. When we master our fears and temper our greed we can make the RIGHT decisions in the market. What has the average investor been taught for DECADES? To buy strong, healthy, up trending stocks. “Look at that company… they’ve been up trending for 18 months.” “Look at *that* company… they’ve been showing healthy growth month after month for the last year.” “Don’t miss out… you’ve already let the stock go from 25 to 85… you don’t want to miss the boat, do you?” BUY! BUY! BUY! The Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) and the greed of wanting to “make it rich” lets the novice investor be a slave to the emotions of Fear and Greed. So they buy. And what inevitably happens… You guessed it, the stock starts to falter, starts to fumble, has some bad news come out, is affected by CoronaVirus or other event or excuse. So once the stock gets to a new low price, they get scared (FEAR) and sell back to the broker so they can “cut their losses.” Economically, what did the ‘customer’ do in this case? They BOUGHT a product at “retail” and they SOLD the product at “wholesale.” Just like they would if they were buying a car. Go to the local auto dealer, buy a new car for $30,000, and later sell it for $10,000 when you trade it in for the next year’s model. We need to start thinking like the RETAILER, or in this case, like the financial institution SELLING the products at RETAIL and BUYING them at WHOLESALE. Warren Buffett once said that investors need to be “fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” Trading psychology in a nutshell. The second power is Supply and Demand. Everything on the planet from Beanie Babies to Cabbage Patch dolls to 1970’s-era Star Wars action figures and yes, Financial PRODUCTS in a financial MARKET has its VALUE determined by the simple market forces of Supply and Demand. =============== The Solution: Hiding in Plain Sight =============== So, all that to say is, Buy and Hold is not only dead (which indeed worked great from 1975 till 2000) but it’s pretty much the great American Lie still being told to this very day every time someone enters the workforce and is encouraged to “put a little away every paycheck toward your future”. The Financial Markets are the ONLY markets in which we are conditioned to pay full retail for a product (look at that uptrend, look at the strong growth!) and sell at wholesale (Well lookie there, you’re losing money… let’s get you out of those losers.) There is NO other market - be it the automotive market, the electronics market, or the farmer’s market - where we are happy to pay full price. I want my stuff on SALE, and that includes my investments! Still not a believer? Let the money do the talking. Looking at the Chart at the top of this article, (also posted below), if you started investing in 1997, you would have had a ZERO NET RETURN after 12 years. If you started investing in 2000, you would have quickly lost HALF your investment, and broke even for a ZERO NET RETURN after 13 years. “Hey, I was told that time is on my side… I just let a DECADE of my life go by with a ZERO return!” If you were unfortunate to begin investing in 2018, you would have experienced six vicious whipsaws in just 33 months. Who needs that kind of heartburn?!?! And where is the market going to go? Up? Down? Do *you* or your financial planner have a crystal ball? Remember: Every financial planner and investment firm has that oh-so-handy get-out-of-jail-free card: “Past performance is not an indicator of future results.” Buy and Hold is DEAD, which means that we can’t afford to be INVESTORS, which is as good as throwing your money into a casino. We need to be TRADERS where we can “follow the money” and see where the major financial institutions, the “movers and shakers” of the market, the “market makers” are CREATING those levels of wholesale and retail, of Supply and Demand, and BUY when prices are at wholesale and SELL when prices are at retail - the exact OPPOSITE of what we have been taught in the Financial Market but the very SAME thing that we do in Every. Other. Market. When we learn to be the store *owner*… When we learn to buy at wholesale to sell at retail… when we learn to “follow the money” using a PROVEN system of trading that identifies these levels of wholesale and retail, we will no longer suffer the whims of the market. Just like WalMart, just like your local grocery store, we will be able to see *consistent* monthly profits if we take *consistent* action and we learn to *control* our emotions and trade like a Vulcan. Trade like Spock. “Trade long, and prosper!” Buy and Hold is dead! Long live Supply and Demand!
Editors' picks
SP:SPXEducation
by ocaptain
141
The myth of Warren Buffett and Buy & HoldFirst of all let me note that a few years ago an university professor looked into Buffett history and found that according to filings he had a turnover of 100% (correct if I'm wrong he only checked the 13F they do not show other investment than stocks and stocks that have been held not long enough to be filed). Also he held 80% of stocks for less than 2 years. Here is what the chart for a stock looks on a daily chart: Absolutely disgusting. Giant candles, tiny candles, huge gaps, no trend, no pattern, valuation doesn't matter, government doesn't matter, etc. Looks like gambling or trolling. Without dumb money hedge funds are not performing, and quants either they're only as big as the retail market is (both day gamblers & baghodlers). Versus a chart over 25 years... Some thinking can actually take place as opposed to the 1Y chart that is just ridiculous. Is it a good company? Is it expensive? The trend? And so on. The long term advocates do seem to mix everything up and throw Forex in there (because comparing 2 economies is the same as buying a company). "Buy and hold is the only proven way bla bla bla everything else is bolocks" yawn I get it you're braindead. Man these investment advisors. 2Y chart of FX (and 1Y) looks much better than a long term one, as opposed to 1/2Y stock charts being disgusting but 20Y looking exploitable. Let's take a look at some of his purchases. The stocks that went against him and he closed rapidly do not attract any attention so there is nothing on it and I did not want to go over his 13F for hours, most of his trades recently are breakeven or small wins anyway from what I have seen. So we are starting with some of those ones. Buffett Phillips adventure Berkshire Verizon adventure And I don't even know why he held that long, maybe there was nothing else around. Idk it just wouldn't go up, looks bad already just a few months after BRK bought. Who knows what other positions they had at the time (shorts are not reported)? A quick win Watch out all bagholders are now learning from his "mistakes" and making sure they never sell too early their bags, of course they also know diversification is for idiots and they should make sure to hold as little company lottery tickets as possible, making sure to: - Have very big stakes - Never sell (knowing that 97% companies go to zero and 90% of the remaining 3% perform worse than inflation) Maximizing as much as possible their odds of losing everything while freezing their capital and minimizing their odds of taking advantage of opportunities 👍 The herd blindly following Berkshire and all institutional investors feeling "safe" to buy companies after Buffett bought (if their clients complain they say he did it so...) = perhaps this allows BRK to have a high hitrate since they are famous? Of course no one follows them after they sell, there is always a good excuse to hold a bag. If Warren/Berkshire countless small wins & breakevens are hard to find, many losers are impossible to find, his winners sure are extremely easy to find actually they are even impossible to miss as they are constantly thrown in our faces endlessly. A famous one Another famous one And of course... :) The only loser I heard of, of course the one he just kept holding, a source of inspiration for success & motivation coaches and all dum dums that dream of lambos Hundreds of losses or struggling winners he cut off quickly? Who cares! They don't exist lalala I cannot hear! OMG say what? He held a bag with red candles? OMG long term just noise bla bla bla IQ doesn't mean anything strong hand to victory! "Buy cheap". If it's worthless crap then it is expensive not cheap... 20 cents for a bag of soiled toilet paper is not cheap even if it is 20c... Some stories The Coca Cola chart over 2 decades when he bought: And then... In 2007 Buffett got into Forex a bit and bought the Brazilian real He said something like "we can't get a big position like we could with the euro". Nice, Brazil is too small for Berkshire. Forex gets so much bad reputation from ignorant clowns, if dumb money is doing better with stocks (the number of baghodlers would suggest they are not) it would simply be because they are perma bulls in a big long term 50 years or more bull market. Forex is not super long term like this, so mistakes will kill the noobs much faster. Holding a stock bag will take years or decades to wipe out its investors, but in the end they are just as bad and just as rekt. Forex IS shorter term, it is not gambling or less valid because it is shorter term, no, we are talking about a different asset that works in different ways, and since it is shorter term clowns and bagholders will be wiped out much more quickly. The leverage is not "what makes Forex so dangerous", the issue with noobs is not the leverage it is being bad, and fighting trends and bagholding. Since they hold losers until being wiped out, it will be much faster with FX than with stocks or Bitcoin. Bitcoin baghodlers have been at it for 3 years and are still alive. If they held FX going against them they'd be rekt long ago. Oh and then since FX is not being sold as a magical holy grail to hold passively "any idiot can make it" and brokers spend millions to advertise day trading, the noobs all end up being day gamblers even thought zero professionals do it, and day gambling is the fastest route to rekt. High costs, high randomness, not holding winners, oh and the majority of gamblers dumb enough to day gamble obviously do not have the mental abilities to figure out 2% risk per trade day gambling is simply dense because your actual risk will be something like what? 50% over 1 month? As opposed to 5% over a month using 2% risk with a logical strategy. They just go for x% no matter the risk over time like it doesn't even exist which makes absolutely no sense. And they think the risk is the same... Forex investors don't get as far as I am concerned the winrate stock investors get, with the exception of retail forex gamblers which trade profit for winrate ye pretty easy to have a high winrate if you don't care how much you lose, and another exception perhaps would be when Buffett trades it because he goes for a solid unbreakable multi year trend and very rarely. Lower winrate buuuut (obviously there is a but otherwise why even touch FX?) more opportunities. So you can actually have less portfolio noise you won't be down 20% the year the S&P goes down. In the end it all ends up the same way. The best FX investors over decades got returns of 30% a year, the best stock investors over decades got returns of 30% a year. "Experts", investment advisors, nobel prize economists with plenty of degrees (aka clueless idiots), they're going to tout bagholding index funds as the holy grail, beg baggies to never sell because "just noise - last time they said - 13% muh snp - buffett long term", and constantly bash fx & even commodities, and most people are brainwashed to listen, they just fall for the most obvious bs just look at how many people cry when some vegan activists "show terrible images" of a farm that are obviously made up (they could wait for a farmer to have an accident then go visit his abandoned farm a few days later when animals died and feces accumulated and at night then go "see those horrible conditions? They just die and are left for dead and there are feces everywhere and animals are abandoned in the dark"). No free lunch. No holy grail. No market that throws free money because "muh positive sum". Markets are chosen by personal preference (and a bit by what is volatile at a specific moment of course but over decades they all have something to offer). Let me tell you one thing: commodities & forex have hedgers. Therefore it is a positive sum game for speculators in my eyes. Whereas stocks? Only investors trying to make money ripping each other off. This is the real zero sum pyramid scheme. Warren looks for winners, trends & supply demand imbalance just like anyone else. The time horizons are different, the reports you read are different (shareholder letters or central bank minutes or the OPEC MOMR), the winrates are different (and number of opportunities which evens it out), but the way you approach it and the fundamental idea are really the same (trend, new highs, overextended trends like petrochina that went down shortly after Buffett sold, pullback = discount that is a free cheap entry, position sizing, trailing, big winners often being those that rapidly and strongly went your way and losers being those that chopped around for a long time ...). Damn. Warren Buffett is not a wizard that magically picks up winning stocks but does what investors have been doing for possibly millenias. FX meh trades will last days or weeks, stocks 1 to 4 years maybe. Forex winners last weeks or even months, stocks 5 years to decades. Why would you sell a stock winner that keeps going up? Only if you think it is very expensive (or you hate making money), but if it is already expensive after just 1 or 2 years then you clearly messed up by entering a trade on a stock that was expensive! Either way you are in for the long run, it is something to make a multi decade career out of, sorry roulette day traders & passive bagholders, taking dozens of trades over a year that will last a few weeks or just a few like Buffett that will last a few years. Learning takes a long time, researching takes a long time, growing an account takes a long time, just the same no matter the market no matter the strategy. The only free lunches are really only found with insider trading... They end up getting lots of free lunches in jail... free hugs too.
Editors' picks
PEducation
by MrRenev
28
-400 billion$ in 3 days🍎The current slide in share prices are particularly felt by the high-flyers of the past weeks, including the papers from Apple . The recent sell-off, however, is still a clean correction. Following the primary expectation, the market has reached the target box for the current pullback. As long as the bulls hold above $105, we see the bulls stepping back in very soon, taking Appel to new all-time highs. Under $128.78, the alternative scenario must be considered. We give this scenario a 30% probability, which would pave the way towards $95. To summarize, both scenarios are pointing to new all-time highs in the medium-term perspective. Feel free to discuss! Cheerio 🥃...and happy trading!
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by MarketIntel
8
PHARMING LONG termHello all, Here another TA of me, this time on the stock PHARMING. Its a very interesting company, i would advice you to dive in the fundamentals for further information. I will just show the possibilities with TA. Before you choose to buy and hold a stock, always do your homework on the fundamentals. TA can help you by choosing a good moment and price to buy the stock. PHARMING is fundamental a healthy company and one of a kind. If you are interested in a possible gem, please check out the fundamentals and see it for yourself. From TA perspective, price is moving into a triangle/flag pattern and 'soon' have to choose direction. Personaly I'm thinking it can go both ways. But with stocks, and specialy the ones you want to hold for long term, you just have to check out the fundamentals. I do not recommend this stock for daytrading, although there are possibilities. As you can see the jump earlier after the news of 5 people who have bin treated with their medicine, RUCONEST, pure doing analysis on the chart on this stock is a bit hard and tricky in my opinion. You just never know when there will be published some news what will effect the price big time. Personally i do think the current price can be a good moment to start buying this stock for the LONG term. Buy and Hold. This is just my view and opinion and in the end you always decide for yourself . Don't ever go blind on someone else his vision, create one for your self! Have fun and good luck trading. :)
EURONEXT:PHARMLong
by JohanRD
1
(2017) History will repeat.🤩🤩💣💣💎Everything I know about cryptocurrency in the global market is suggesting the biggest bull run in the history of Bitcoin. Tiny story about how i started: I have learned so many things since i started in 2011, then i dropped the idea in 2013 due to increasing hash rates individual mining was not efficient and ineffective as well. (pool mining concept was introduced in that time). So, i started trading bitcoin. My experience in Stocks and ETFs is rich. hence i started as a crypto trader, and left the stock market. In these colourful years, i found crypto trading a lot easier than stocks. No gap openings, No time boundaries. The main thing which i’ve loved in this market is that it follows technical analysis very accurately.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Harshgp
3
George Tritch Strategy from 1872 has a 90% hit rateIn 1872 George Tritch documented a strategy for when to Buy and Sell stocks over the next 200 years. While Buy and Hold performed better, it is pretty impressive that a strategy documented almost 150 years ago had a 91% hit rate. The strategy also identified the (near) peaks of major crashes including 1929, 1999, 2007 and 2020. Two key learnings: 1. Buy and Holding (while boring) is a fantastic strategy 2. Market cycles are repetitive. While the times, technology, markets and oversight have changed massively in 150 years; market cycles haven’t. Human nature never changes.
TVC:DJI
by capriole_charles
28
Russell 2000 a long-term buy and hold to outperform S&P 500The Russell 2000 is near a support level relative to the S&P 500. As Fred Imbert of CNBC reported last week in his article "Small-cap stocks are primed to outperform large caps over the next 10 years," small caps tend to outperform large caps in the 12 months after the Fed cuts rates. With two rate cuts already this year and more likely on the way, small caps should be primed to outperform in 2020. And right now, they're cheap compared to large caps. The whole market is probably overvalued right now, given trade risks and weak earnings, but this is especially true of large caps. Buying the S&P 500 near all-time highs in the middle of an earnings recession and a trade war is just foolish. For a long-term buy and hold investment, small caps are the segment of the market to buy right now.
AMEX:IWMLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
Buy targets on SPYOne of the best ways to outperform the market is to buy the S&P 500 (SPY) or a leveraged S&P 500 index fund (UPRO) and simply hold it for the long term. However, the price at which you enter such a buy-and-hold trade is extremely important. If you get a price that's 50% cheaper, you'll make 100% more money over the lifetime of the investment, because you'll have twice as many shares as you would have otherwise. This year is a great year to enter a trade like that, because the market is so weak. But you never know how low prices will go, so the best strategy is to scale in. Here are four relatively conservative buy targets for the S&P 500. These targets assume that we won't enter a full-scale recession this year, which is a big assumption. (Google "Federal government has dramatically expanded exposure to risky mortgages" to see why there's a lot of recession risk. A recession would be, by far, the best time to enter the market for a buy and hold play.) I was pleased this morning to see the market bounce hard from my first buy target. I managed to pick almost the exact bottom to get into the UPRO leveraged fund! We probably will see more downside later this month, however, and I've got plenty of money in cash to take advantage if it falls that far. I like to triple my holdings at each successive buy target, so I've only acquired a relatively small position so far.
AMEX:SPYLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
2
BAE Systems - About to rocket?BUY – BAE SYSTEMS (BA.) BAE Systems plc is a defense, aerospace and security company. The Company operates through five segments. The Electronic Systems segment consists of the Company's United States and United Kingdom-based electronics activities. Fundamentals The company boasts special relationships with both the US and Saudi Arabia. The company has provided support and equipment to the Saudi armed forces for several decades now. The Middle East is a very important revenue stream and the company is actively trying to diversify its client list. BAE has not cut its dividend for 20 years and continues to maintain a dividend yield in excess of 4%. Best Broker Target Price: 690p (Deutsche Bank 15/07/2019) Worst Broker Target Price: 530p (JP Morgan Cazenove 17/07/2019) Technical Analysis BAE Systems share price broke out of a large range in July 2019 to confirm a bottom pattern. The shares subsequently move higher towards a high of 570p. In recent weeks there has been evidence of profit taking as the shares have dipped back to the breakout level to confirm support. So far, the support level is holding, which we believe is an indication of fresh buying interest. Further upside is expected over the medium term. Recommendation: Buy Buy between 530-545p Stop: 520p Targets: 615p
LSE:BA.Long
by Investamate
1
Buy Auto Trader - Correction over?BUY – AUTO TRADER (AUTO) Auto Trader Group plc is a digital automotive marketplace. The Company is engaged in the business of buying and selling new and used vehicles. The Company also operates similar business in Ireland through its Website carzone.ie. Fundamentals Auto Trader is forecast to post a rise in earnings of 12% in the current year. This follows three years of consecutive double-digit net profit growth, which suggests its business may be relatively resilient within what is a highly cyclical automotive sector. The company is in a dominant position within its industry with virtually no competition. Best Broker Target Price: 640p (Liberum Capital 09/07/2019) Worst Broker Target Price: 414p (JP Morgan Cazenove 17/07/2019) Technical Analysis Auto Trader has traded in a corrective channel since reaching all time highs in June this year. The corrective move appears to have stalled around the 38.2% Fibonacci support level which is from the October 2018 lows to the June 2019 all time highs. A bullish outside candle has been posted on the daily chart, which is positive for short term sentiment. The break of the corrective channel indicates the move lower has come to an end the long term trend can now reassert itself. Recommendation: Buy Buy between 515-540p Stop: 505p Targets: 600p
LSE:AUTOLong
by Investamate