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Buybacks

Buybacks vs. Dark Pool RotationThis lesson is about understanding the dynamics behind corporate buybacks. Sell-Side Institutions, aka the Banks of Record, have their floor traders do the actual buying of shares on behalf of the corporation. However, the Dark Pools, meaning the Buy-Side Institutions, start selling as the buybacks are going on. This training will help you enter a buyback sooner and exit with higher profits for swing trading. We'll study the NASDAQ:AAPL chart to identify buyback candlestick patterns and how to see when the Dark Pools are selling to lower inventory, which is called "rotation." You will also see how the TTAccum/Dist indicator works, and how I use this excellent, leading Hybrid Indicator to aid in my analysis.
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
3
$IBM Support Levels HoldingNYSE:IBM did not have a great earnings report for the 1st Quarter 2024, but 2nd quarter improved. The stock has one of the better charts in the Dow 30 components. It has held up better than most of the Dow components, except for those stocks that are in buyback mode. It has been tapering off its buybacks for 2 quarters. So the gains holding above the support lows are not from buybacks. There are accumulation patterns and pro trader activity in the mix. One to watch for swing trading potential.
NYSE:IBM
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
Buyback Patterns for Swing TradingNASDAQ:AMGN shows a buyback run followed by a sell day that was instigated by market makers as buyers quickly disappeared. Remember that corporate buybacks are done by bank floor traders to add stock to their inventory so they won't take profits at the peak of the run; those are other market participants, such as market makers. NYSE:KO is another example of a buyback run and how price moves back down after the professionals conclude their buybacks. The buybacks were announced in May this year so this stock has just started its share repurchase program.
NASDAQ:AMGN
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
Buybacks vs. Rotation: JPM and AAPLMany companies are flush with cash right now, so buybacks are going to increase. Buybacks can create plenty of swing trading opportunities. Buybacks are used by the Board of Directors to drive price upward, or at least maintain price at a certain level. They also remove outstanding shares from public exchanges. The Percentage of Shares Held by Institutions (PSHI) is based on outstanding shares. So with fewer shares outstanding, it can help PSHI hold at a certain level. The Buy Side has been lowering inventory this year. See red arrows on the JPM chart. In 2018, Buybacks boosted the index components and kept the market from continuing a bear market, which was already underway--a minor bear not a major one. Then in 2019, buybacks surged as the government cut corporate taxes massively. The cash on hand was enormous for most companies so they did mega buybacks, leading the move upward for index components that year. Then, in 2020 the pandemic stock market collapse completed that very odd delayed bear market. Buyback candles are frequently solid white without wicks or tails. Buybacks often initiate strong swing-style runs, such as they have in $NYSE:JPM. See the blue arrows. NASDAQ:AAPL also announced a huge buyback program in early May. This gives the Buy Side Institutions the opportunity to lower inventories of AAPL too, without disturbing price much, if at all. AAPL is in a sideways trading range, which is a tough pattern to trade since there is no consensus about what the company is doing to fuel future growth.
NYSE:JPM
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
Goldman Sachs, the Buyback King?Goldman Sachs, one of the very few giant financial services companies left, is intending to do the first mega buyback program that will exceed One TRILLION dollars into 2025. Gasp. So the chart shows the initial buybacks commencing and the support of its stock price during the very dicey sideways trend. The company reports earnings Monday, April 15. Enough time to catch another swing run to earnings if the current consolidation breaks out to the upside. NYSE:GS is a Sell Side Institution and admits it is heavily vested in NASDAQ:NVDA and other big tech stocks at this time. GS benefits from higher interest rates holding through this year.
NYSE:GS
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
JPM Earnings Next Week: Will Buybacks Hold Up the Stock?NYSE:JPM reached New Highs recently with a huge number of buybacks driving the stock upward so fast and so high. The big bank has also been busy gobbling up regional banks for two years now. JPM's floor traders, trading aggressively in a few key industries, are doing well. However, Revenues and Earnings were down last quarter over the prior quarter. And Volume is trending slightly lower over the quarter. An overextended run into earnings often sees profit-taking ahead of or on the day of the report. Smaller funds are in speculative mode chasing the buybacks. Why did smaller funds rush to buy on earnings last quarter? Year over Year comparisons show revenues and earnings are up. Year over year often distorts current values. What matters is the most current data, quarter over quarter, for the Buy Side Institutions.
NYSE:JPM
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
GS Earnings and Institutional HoldingsNYSE:GS has had a sudden huge decline in its Institutional Holdings from last quarter--a whopping 12%. That's huge. This suggests that often the selling is from Buy-Side Institutions. Goldman Sachs has a buyback program of 30 billion dollars underway, approved end of February 2023. The Buybacks started in March and have continued until recently. I showed the buyback activity on the daily chart in this article earlier this month. The Support from corporate buybacks poses problems for selling short. The stock is also prone to HFT triggers with frequent gapping. The first Support level is just above the 2022 lows. The company reported earnings this morning and gapped down at open but is holding onto the sideways range it's been in for 2 weeks so far. However, Quarterly and Annual Reports are starting to show signs of weakness as this company struggles to reinvent. NYSE:GS is also facing loss of revenues from IPO underwriting as the NASDAQ Private Market is undermining the high income usually generated from IPOs by underwriters. IMO, the investment banking industry is slowly becoming obsolete as DeFi, Fintech, Blockchain technologies and Crypto currencies continue to advance and erode traditional revenue streams.
NYSE:GS
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
Buyback Patterns: GSAs the #3 most heavily weighted stock for the TVC:DJI , NYSE:GS was one of the drivers behind the run down this week. In February, a buyback program of 30 billion was approved. Buybacks probably commenced in March and have been boosting the price up within the trading range until recently. It may be that the buyback money has been depleted. Goldman Sachs reports Oct 17. Revenues declined last quarter. Earnings are up and down. So probably not a great earnings report for Q3. However, the stock has support at the black line, so it doesn't have huge downside potential.
NYSE:GS
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
Eco/monetary news n°32> Dividends and buybacks are coming back in the United States and Europe *********************** Europe allowed companies to resume dividends and buybacks in December 2020 but they set limits and the ECB "ECB calls on banks to refrain from or limit dividends until 30 September 2021". They might have eased it but I cannot find a source, I just know that Banque of France president was agreeing a few weeks ago with people calling for the end of restrictions. otherwise it will be by September. The United States, this week, allowed buyback programs to resume. The Nasdaq website has a 1 line article about it but only about banks. Seriously it's hard to find sources about the subject. Some would call me a conspiracy theorist. I get called so when I have ample proof so here... In any case companies are apparently sitting on a pile of cash and the stock market has rallied without buybacks, the biggest price support of the last 10 years, and companies have put their "buybacking" to the side for over a whole year. When that money pours in... It's going to create an upwards storm. Haha and to think 85% of FXCM clients are still short, and are actually adding now that the price is going higher! I do not think they know the IQS of their clients, but could we ask them their socio-economic background? Journalists, sociology and economics college professors, boomer state worker leeching taxpayer money, burger flippers and unemployed welfare recipients? > Record everything in stock markets including retail fomo & fx traders short selling *********************** While FX brokers continue to publish their short term traders positions which are around 85% short, the S&P 500 breaks record after record. Yesterday the S&P 500 was at its highest level in history, again. According to TD Ameritrade saw the biggest influx in investors ever, it started recording it in 2010. According to Bloomberg the indice had a record run, the longest streak since 1997, and retail investors poured in. "Whether they'll stick around when volatility inevitably resurfaces remains to be seen". I already know the answer to that question. The New York FED "Expectations of higher stock prices" number is at its average of 40% close to where it has almost always been for the last 7 years. Investors are worried about a covid wave and I think that's all. They can always panic sell on the way, but if something real happens, by the time it reaches the donkeys brains I'd have sold long ago. > Western politicians are refusing to return their covid emergency powers *********************** Several politicians have declared they had no plans, or saw no reason, to relinquish their emergency covid powers. The same, and others, have also ignored CDC guidelines as well as the WHO recommendations about re-opening and granting freedoms. Noooo how could be possibly have seen this coming? There was absolutely no way to predict this would happen! It's only going to get worse. Look at Ivory Coast investors ~20 years ago. I think they invested in the sugar industry a lot. I think investors in the UK take into account this kind of risk, but US, French, and probably Germans too have an ideology and separate politics from economics. And they're always all in complete denial. Well, just wait and see. Better keep an eye open for certain keywords "outlaw buybacks", "capital controls" and so on. You want to get out BEFORE. > Turkey central bank governor found to have copy pasted central bank report in his thesis *********************** I am crying. The previous governor got replaced after hiking interest rates from 17 to 19% in the pyramid scheme country, something Erdogan dislikes because it gets in the way of him stealing the people's money to pretend there is growth. So the new guy took office Şahap Kavcıoğlu, and a few weeks later he ends up under investigation because they found this irl griefer shamelessly copy pasted, in his thesis in 2003, entire blocks from a central bank report of 2001. You know when I copy paste bloomberg first I only take a sentence, then whether I copy paste the whole thing or write it with my own words I say "according to Bloomberg" or something. This guy takes entire sections with no source whatsoever and just claims it as his own "oh boy that was some hard work". It's not the first time! A previous governor, in 2019, faced similar accusations. Can you guess what he hadn't done his own research on and simply copy pasted? The part about INFLATION TARGETING. I am actually crying. > ECB aims for 2 percent inflation target and focusses on changing climate change *********************** When asked if they wanted to allow it to go higher because it was below target for a while they mumbled something incoherent. Are they following the FED & Yellen guidelines? No one knows. They are in a sea of lies they don't even know themselves anymore. All I can say is we will see. The USA still want to fight a stock market crash because Hitler and Germany wants to fight inflation because Hitler and the ECB continues to pull away from the post-war Bundesbank dogma. There are hints they are open to "easy money" and no surprise here German officials think so. Hey, let me quote from Bloomberg: "Officials from Germany in particular easy money that undermined the postwar inflation-fighting on which the ECB was modeled as a condition for the country’s participation in the euro."" After Brexit and before Frexit (cucks) Germanyxit? Diverging visions, goals, and interests. I think the Brussels unelected globalist ideologists want to fire the money bazookas with the USA, but the Germans still don't want that. And since the EU is (now) centered around France-Germany plus Germany is a huge net contributor. Without the UK, Germany is responsible for HALF of the net contributions to Europe, with the UK 41%. By 2011 France (nb 2) "only" contributed for 17% (104 billion), lol 104 billion, they did more than half that in 2020 alone. The covid EU budget was one of the greatest "redistribution of wealth" in history, directly from german and french workers to EU unemployed. By 2011 Italy contributed a significant 12% but I doubt this is the case anymore. By allowing their country to get destroyed one may say they contributed 100%. The UK cut their losses just in time, while France & Germany will be the suckers for the rest of eternity. Meanwhile Romania and Slovenia have better or close to as good standards of living. Hey, and these astonishing net contributions are GIFTS. Does not take into account the hundreds of billions in "loans" the 2 pigeons have made to countries like Greece that will NEVER pay back. I'm dying 🤣 www.aalep.eu > Yay crypto adoption: China shuts down yet more digital currency competition *********************** Man I told these Bitcoin donkeys countries would never adopt their risible ponzis and would just make their own digital currencies. What do they have in the head seriously? Paté? In a statement on July 6, the PBoC announced it ordered Beijing Qudao Cultural Development, a firm providing crypto trading software, to shut down its operations. Ah but this is anecdotal, and surely these guys were doing something fishy right? Doesn't prove anything. Yup. They were doing something fishy. Here is the reason given as to why they got shut down *clears throat* "suspicions of being involved in crypto-related trading" (he proudly said). There is no interpretation possible, they could not be more clear. I wonder how crypto gamblers will weasel themselves out of that one.
Education
by MrRenev
NOC bounce in progressThe Setup Northrop Grumman has made a support trend line since 2013, and it now looks to be bouncing from that line after approaching it Friday. NOC also has support at 287 from recent lows. More importantly, NOC has a positive news catalyst after announcing a $2 billion buyback program this morning. Value NOC is a pretty compelling value. I estimate forward P/E at 11 and forward P/S at 1.25, pretty good for a company with earnings growth. Sales are growing about 3% per year and earnings about 4% per year. NOC also offers a dividend yield over 2% and growing at a rate of 3% per year. It has 3 patens per billion dollars of market cap, which isn't an extraordinary amount of patents, but it's enough to show that the company is innovating. Perhaps most compelling metric is that NOC has about 41% upside to its median valuation of the past 4 years. Sentiment Sentiment on NOC is mixed, with an average 72.25/100 score from S&P Global, but only a middling analyst summary score and ESG rating. Recent earnings revisions have been mixed, and TradingView's technical analysis shows "Strong Sell" on the daily and "Sell" on the weekly. Options interest has been positive, with both open interest and 30-day average volume in bullish territory. The most impressive sentiment metric is the average analyst price target, some 35% above the current price. Although sentiment isn't yet clearly bullish, I believe that it will soon shift in a bullish direction in response to news of the buyback program. My plan is to front-run the change in sentiment, though another possible strategy is to enter on a bullish breakout above the recent resistance trend line. Price Target I think a reasonable near-term price target is $340/share.
NYSE:NOCLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
5
POP!! IT'S COMING!What people want me to do is tell them when the bubble is gonna pop! Well, well - I can see the weather outside my home is setting up pretty badly, but I can't tell when a downpour of rain is gonna come! I'm as I'm so bad at weather forecasting - how on earth could I possibly forecast market crashes? All I know is that when I see bad weather I'd better wear a raincoat or carry and umbrella - or alternatively don't venture outside! Is that okayyyyy? :) :)
NASDAQ:NDAQEducation
by Captain_Walker