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Gold Investor Looking Next month US election (Gold Rally)XAUUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: 1186.50 Key Resistance: 1191.20 - 1194.56 - 1198.45 - 1202.29 Key Support: 1186.49 - 1184.58 - 1181.78 - 1178.20 Day Trading Range: 1178 - 1200 Technical Indicator: RSI: The RSI having mixed bullish divergence. Moving Average: SMA 100(1197.45) & SMA 200(1194.50) strong resistance for Gold today.. Technical Trade Idea: Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1186.50 with targets at 1194.50 & 1202.20 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1186.50 look for further downside with 1182.45 & 1179.30 as targets. Overall, The trading week kicked off with a panicked sell-off in Chinese equities which simply expresses growing fears in financial markets. Rising U.S. and global interest rates, a stronger U.S. dollar, slowing economic activity, and of course, tense U.S.-China relations have all attributed to the nervous market environment. The cut of the Reserve Ratio Requirement from PBOC to boost credit did little to help appetite, in a sign that more action needs to be taken to avoid a hard landing. While we think that China still has a lot of monetary and fiscal tools to cushion a slowdown to its economy, investors need to see the domestic picture improving before seeing a significant rally in its equity markets. There are quite a few variables influencing the price action which leads me to believe we’re more likely to remain in a range over the near-term. One event that nobody seems to be talking about is the U.S. November elections. Traders are saying that today’s early session strength is being fueled by safe-haven bids from risk-averse investors. The buying could be coming from Asia where stocks are under pressure again. Furthermore, renewed concerns over a potential slowdown in China’s economic growth as well as an easing U.S. Dollar could be underpinning the market. If it’s being viewed as an investment then investors will have a difficult time generating enough upside momentum to trigger a breakout through the resistance because of the rising interest rate environment in the United States. This helps support the U.S. Dollar which leads to lower foreign demand for dollar-denominated gold. If gold starts to take on the identity of a safe-haven asset then demand will have to increase enough to drive out the net short hedge and commodity funds. Only then can we see a bona fide breakout to the upside. There are quite a few variables influencing the price action which leads me to believe we’re more likely to remain in a range over the near-term. One event that nobody seems to be talking about is the U.S. November elections. Thanks YoCryptoManic
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by yoCryptoManic
Gold looking for commentary on monetary policy todayFX_IDC:XAUUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: 1202.20 (CMP 1199) Key Resistance: 1200.10 - 1203.45 - 1207.66 - 1210.20 Key Support: 1196.35 - 1193.79 - 1191.55 - 1189.25 Technical Indicator: Moving Average: SMA 55 (1199.66) strong resistance & SMA 100(1194.48) & SMA 200(1195.36) strong support today for Gold. According to high volume moving indicator shows upside bias. RSI: The indicator shows downside momentum, moving around 50 level. Technical Trade Idea: Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 1202.20 with targets at 1194.55 & 1189.25 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 1202.20 look for further upside with 1205.20 & 1208.55 as targets. Overall,Two factors likely contributed to the market’s weakness on Wednesday. Firstly, an easing of tensions between Italy and the European Union encouraged investors to dump their safe-haven long positions. Secondly, a soaring U.S. Dollar pressured foreign demand for dollar-denominated gold. The U.S. Dollar was supported early in the session on Wednesday after the ADP National Employment Report showed private payrolls jumped by 230,000 jobs in September, posting its largest gain since February. Shortly after the release of the jobs data, the greenback extended its gains after the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) non-manufacturing activity index jumped 3.1 points to 61.6 last month, the highest reading since August 1997. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also made supportive comments. He added to the bullish tone for the U.S. Dollar when he said on Wednesday that the central bank may raise interest rates above an estimated “neutral” setting as the “remarkably positive” U.S. economy continues to grow. In other news, tensions eased in Europe on Wednesday on reports that Italy plans to reduce its budget deficit over the next three years. While the long-term view remains bearish because of the hawkish Fed, gold does remain vulnerable to short-term upswings if the situation between Italy and the European Union escalates. In the U.S. on Thursday, investors will get the opportunity to react to three more economic reports and a speech from a U.S. FOMC member. FOMC Member Randal Quarles is also scheduled to speak. Investors will be looking for commentary on monetary policy especially his opinion on inflation and the labor market. He may also offer his opinion on the pace of future interest rate hikes. Thanks YoCryptoManic
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by yoCryptoManic
Bulls taking control? In correction to my previous analysis in which I miss-used the pattern called "bullish pennant", I now show a trend line acting as resistance for Gold in the range between 1208 and 1214. The idea is to trade the breakout of this trend line as it has been an important zone of resistance for Gold for past weeks. See also a major trend line on the Weekly chart and appreciate how the market has respected it. Price failed to form a double bottom at yearly lows between 1160s and 1170s. The breakout of a key pivot point between 1193.00 and 1195.00 is also a sign that there might be intentions of a change in trend. Is this a good opportunity to buy and hold Gold? Best of luck!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Felipersan24
2
Gold continue to pay attention to several things at onceXAUUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: $1205.20 Day Trading Range: $1200.00 - $1218.50 Key Resistance: $1210.66 - $1214.59 - $1217.33 - $1221.20 Key Support: $1205.20 - $1203.25 - $1200.00 - $1196.28 Technical Indicators: RSI: Indicator lacks downside momentum, moving around 64 level. Moving Average: SMA 20($1203.63) & SMA 55($1200.71) strong support for Gold. Technical Trade Idea: Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1205.20 with targets at 1212.45 & 1215.38 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1205.20 look for further downside with 1203.25 & 1199.89 as targets Overall, Gold continue to pay attention to several things at once, as there are fears about the trade war, questions about whether the Federal Reserve will be able to raise interest rates in that environment, and then of course a lot of fear in the emerging markets. This has made the precious metals sector very difficult to trade at times, if you are looking at short-term charts. However, all one has to do is zoom out to the longer-term charts and recognize that we are in a major downtrend. This isn’t to say the gold can’t rally, most certainly can and it has. However there are levels where we see a lot of resistance previously. This is seen just above at the $1215 level, which should be a bit of a challenge to get above. That’s not to say that we can’t break above there, but we need some help from the US dollar. Thanks YoCryptoManic
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by yoCryptoManic
XAUUSD completed Bull Flag, Looking For Rally $1218XAUUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: $1202.25 Key Resistance: $1208.45 - $1212.00 - $1217.89 - $1222.24 Key Support: $1202.25 - $1198.45 - $1195.55 - $1192.00 Technical Indicator: Chart Pattern: Bullish Flag Completed, looking for upside direction. RSI: Indicator shows upside bias. MACD: MacD having upside momentum. Moving Avg: SMA100 ($1199.02) & SMA55 ($1198.27) strong support for Gold. Technical Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1202.25 with targets at 1208.50 & 1212.50 in extension. Technical Alternative scenario: below 1202.25 look for further downside with 1198.00 & 1192.50 as targets. Fundamental: Gold markets were very noisy during trading on Wednesday, as we continue to see a lot of volatility around the world. The US dollar got a bit of a beating during the day as James Bullard suggested that an inverted yield curve could cause a recession. Everybody on Wall Street knows that, except for currency traders it seems. However, at the end of the day the Gold markets continue to face a lot of selling pressure due to the US dollar strength longer-term. There have been a lot of concern with emerging markets, and that should continue to be the case. I also recognize that we are a bit range bound, although I think there is some upward pressure to be found eventually. If we do break above the $1208 level, that would be a good sign. In the meantime, I think that rallies are selling opportunities on signs of exhaustion, as gold simply can’t seem to get its act together longer-term. Thanks YoCryptoManic
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by yoCryptoManic
6
Europeand Session Yellow Metal Bullish Flag ?XAUUSD Technical Overview: Day Trading Range: $1186 - $1208 Pivot: 1195.00 Key Resistance: $1204.45 - $1212.00 - $1218.85 Key Support: $1195.45 - $1188.45 - $1182.00 Technical Trading Idea: Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1195.00 with targets at 1201.00 & 1204.00 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1195.00 look for further downside with 1193.00 & 1189.50 as targets. Technical Indicator: MACD: MacD advocates for further upside. Moving Avg: SMA100 ($1194.63) strong support $ SMA200 ($1205.79) strong resistance for the day. Fundamentals: Gold markets rally during the trading session on Wednesday as it was reported that the UK and Germany were possibly coming together a bit on the Brexit negotiations, and this of course in the EUR/USD pair in the GBP/USD pair higher. In other words, drove down the value of the US dollar which of course is good for gold overall. With that being the case, the market looks very likely to test the $1205 level. If we can get above that level, it could free the market to go to the $1210 level next. In the meantime though, I would expect a lot of volatility, and just as much selling pressure as buying, as the markets are very erratic in general. I would trade this market in five dollar ranges, going back and forth to keep your P&L safe. If we do break down below the $1200 level, I think somewhere near the 1196 level there should be some buying support. Today’s market hours will see release of ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Crude Oil Inventory and ADP Non-Farm employment change data and a hawkish outcome in same could help USD gain upper hand against the shared currency. Thanks YoCryptoManic
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by yoCryptoManic
USDJPY V GOLD: BEST VALUE - RISK-ON SELL JPY; RISK-OFF BUY GOLD Why Gold is lagging Safe have losses & Yen is outperforming 1. When looking at Gold vs Yen or XAUJPY it becomes apparent why Gold is lagging the broad safe haven losses that we have seen during this risk-recovery rally - investors are buying gold over Yen - so gold appears to be their preferred safe have asset to hold in a risk-on rally - likely a function of perceived future weakness of Yen? BOJ/ JPY Govt stimulus? - This may be the case for three reasons; 1) Investors speculate JPY is due further downside gains compared to gold (Gold is the stronger Risk-off asset) and they speculate that BOJ may deliver a big devaluing package and/ or 2) They believe JPY is more overvalued than Gold so they sell their JPY holdings over their Yen. 3) Gold is more illiduid compared to Yen e.g. investors have been able to sell their Yen faster/ easier than their Gold as Gold is a physical asset and FX markets are the most liquid markets in the world - whereas Yen is pure currency which is convertible at any level. Implications: 1. This infers that investors expect Gold to continue to outperform in risk-off rallies going forward - which makes sense given Gold is already up 30% this year vs Yen's only 20% up - so they see further upside for Gold. This could be the case as the market discounts the probability that the BOJ/ JPY govt delivers a large easing package which devalues the JPY. - Therefore Gold shorts should be careful during this risk-on rally as when the tides change back to the trend of risk-off, Gold is more likely to rally aggressively in comparison to Yen. Trading strategy: 1. Buying Gold on the risk-on reversal (to risk-off) - we should allocate the liquidity to Gold over Yen to take advantage of this investor sentiment. 2. The market is clearly discounting quit aggressive JPY weakness when relatively compared to other safe havens - likely due to BOJ/ JPY Govt stimulus worries. - Knowing this, we should potentially position for JPY shorts - since the market clearly is positioning for some serious JPY weakness relatively - a big BOJ package? 3. Whilst safe havens have outperformed risk by 14% (20% safe havens 6% risk-on assets - pre-brexit) - Gold has also outperformed Yen by 7%. - Therefore in risk-off rallies we SHOULD expect Yen to underperform Gold e.g. GOLD should be brought over Yen. - In risk-on rallies (now) we should expect Yen shorts to outperform Gold as Yen is considered the poorer asset - USDJPY longs are better/ safe than Gold shorts (hence supporting my long $yen view). *Check the attached posts that also support the long $Yen view in this market*
FX_IDC:XAUJPYLong
by QuantumLogicTrading
5
RISK-OFF YEAR: BREXIT & US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: BUY GOLD @12592016, the year of the Risk-Off Asset Historically Gold has performed +10-20% in the 6 months into US Presidential Election years AND also by longing Gold on this pull-back it opens up the opportunity to benefit from the potential tail risk that the UK votes to "Brexit" in which Gold will likely trade through $1400. Gold is one of my favourite plays for 2016 for these reasons so I suggest a strategy of: Buy GOLD - 1@1259 2@1237 3@1210 Long term TP $1395 SL $1195 Short term TP $1310 SL $1195 - Near-term on a UK Vote to stay we will likely see Gold risk-on sell off towards the $1200 handle - this is a great opp to get a good average price by buying Gold on its way down as I expect Gold to trade close to $1400 by years end and into the Election. - A UK Vote Leave will put Gold close to the $1400 level within a week. - The time-risk are asymmetrically skewed to the upside for Gold IMO as 1) in the near term, Brexit and Global economic unbalance uncertainty buoys the precious metal; Further, the recent failure of risk markets (SP/DJ) to set new highs despite posting recovery, likely signifies the end of the equity bull run, and thus the start of the Gold bull Run. - and 2) The US FOMC Rate Hike Cycle, US Presidential election and wider Global Economic concerns of Deflation and low-growth which is a systemic issue and is also likely to be the case for the foreseeable future (with the 2nd and 3rd largest Central Banks - ECB and BOJ under pressure - among much of the developed world) all contribute to drive the increase in risk-off/ safe haven demand for Gold over the Long-Medium term. - Gold is selling-off due to the increased risk appetite in the market currently as the near-term Brexit risk is soothed by "Stay" biased polls - HOWEVER, with Gold Volatility trading 50% lower than it was a week ago (reflecting the settled risk this week) with current ATM at 15%, and with 1M Risk-Reversals trading with a positive call skew of 3% we can expect an upward bias over the coming weeks/ months. - As lower Implied Vols are projected across the 12m options curve and the 12m Futures curve is also trading contango which both imply the Gold market sentiment is for the price to rise. - Finally, as the FOMC Rate hike cycle intensifies over the medium-term, bond prices will come under pressure, thus driving further demand for Gold as the higher quality and higher return asset is sought.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by QuantumLogicTrading
6