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QQQ Short-Term Selloff After the Fed's Rate Cut DecisionIf you haven`t bought the recent dip in QQQ: Then you need to know that as we approach the Federal Reserve's rate cut decision this week, there is growing speculation that the central bank may implement a larger-than-expected 50 basis point cut, instead of the anticipated 25. While rate cuts are typically viewed as bullish for markets, this unexpected move could trigger a short-term selloff, particularly in tech-heavy indices like the QQQ. Why? The market tends to operate on a "buy the rumor, sell the news" mentality. Investors have already priced in expectations of a modest 25 bps cut, so if the Fed delivers a more aggressive 50 bps cut, it may signal heightened concern over economic conditions, causing traders to pull back. Such a scenario could spook the market, leading to a temporary selloff in major indices like the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). In light of this, it may be worth considering a bearish strategy for the short term. Specifically, the $475 strike price puts expiring on September 20 could be a prudent option, as they stand to gain value in the event of a selloff following the Fed decision. The short-term market reaction could make these puts a strategic play for traders anticipating a dip. While the reaction to the Fed decision could be sharp in the short term, it’s unlikely to be long-lasting. Market participants will soon digest the news, and I expect a recovery by the end of the month. In fact, by November 5th—U.S. election day—we could see new all-time highs in both the S&P 500 (SPX) and the Nasdaq 100 (NDX). Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been keen on maintaining market stability, which could give the Democrats a slight edge in the upcoming elections. After all, former President Donald Trump has stated he wouldn’t reappoint Powell if re-elected, possibly adding a political dimension to the Fed’s moves. In conclusion, while the QQQ might face near-term turbulence due to the Fed’s potentially larger-than-expected rate cut, the broader market is likely to recover soon, with tech stocks regaining their upward momentum as the election approaches. The $475 strike price puts expiring on September 20 could serve as a timely hedge during this brief period of volatility.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by TopgOptions
TON Toncoin Potential Sell-OffIf you haven`t bought TON before the breakout: Now you need to know that on August 24, 2024, the arrest of Telegram founder Pavel Durov by French authorities sent shockwaves through both the platform and its cryptocurrency, Toncoin (TON). Durov's arrest, reportedly tied to illegal activities on Telegram, has been widely seen as an attack on free speech, which has paradoxically boosted interest in both Telegram and Toncoin. This spotlight on Durov and his platforms presents both challenges and opportunities. While the surge in activity signals increased attention, the future is uncertain. The ongoing investigation and heightened regulatory scrutiny are likely to impact TON's market performance. Investors and users are closely watching for further legal actions, as they could have significant consequences for Telegram and Toncoin. With the regulatory landscape in flux, TON remains a risky investment until the legal situation stabilizes. My price target for TON is $2.15.
Short
by TopgOptions
QQQ Nasdaq 100 ETF PredictionIf you haven`t bought the last dip on QQQ: Historically, the QQQ Nasdaq 100 ETF has demonstrated a consistent pattern where a Relative Strength Index (RSI) at or below 30 triggers buying activity. This technical indicator, typically viewed as signaling an oversold condition, has reliably attracted investors looking to capitalize on perceived undervaluation. As a result, these dips have been quickly bought up, suggesting a strong market tendency to rebound from such low RSI levels. I expect the recovery to be V-shaped or W-shaped, ending the year higher.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by TopgOptions
1
BTC Crypto Silence in Musk-Trump X Space Session Disappoints If you haven`t sold the Double Top: The digital asset market remained subdued after the recent X Space session between Elon Musk and Donald Trump, where crypto went unmentioned. Elon Musk, a long-time advocate of cryptocurrencies, has recently been joined by Trump, who has surprisingly become a supporter of the asset class. This shift is notable, not just because Trump is a former U.S. President running for a second term, but also because it marks a complete reversal from his earlier stance. While in the White House, Trump labeled cryptocurrencies as a "scam," "not real money," and a "disaster waiting to happen." Now, in a stark contrast, Trump has become the first U.S. Presidential candidate to accept crypto donations and has publicly endorsed Bitcoin mining, even delivering a keynote at the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville last month. Given this dramatic turnaround, many in the crypto community were expecting Trump to address the topic during his conversation with Musk. However, to their disappointment, the subject was left untouched. After a technical rebound, I expect the correction to continue. I'm still bullish on Bitcoin (BTC) in the long term.
by TopgOptions
1
ETH Ethereum ETFs Set to Launch. Short Term Price TargetIf you haven`t sold the top on ETH: Then you need to know that the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) has announced that five spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are slated to begin trading on July 23, pending regulatory approval. However, the launch of these Ethereum ETFs could lead to a price decline similar to what was observed with Bitcoin. After the launch of the spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, Bitcoin experienced a notable drop in its price. Initially, Bitcoin was trading above $48,000 but then plummeted to as low as $38,700 on January 23, 2024. This represents a nearly 20% decline from its high​​. The initial drop of 5% was observed shortly after the ETFs went live, attributed to profit-taking behavior and market dynamics​. For Ethereum, a similar scenario could unfold. The influx of capital and the heightened attention could initially drive up prices. However, once the ETFs start trading, profit-taking behavior might set in, potentially causing Ethereum's price to fall by 5% to 20%. Investors should be prepared for potential volatility surrounding the launch date. My Price Target is $2800.
Short
by TopgOptions
1