Final Final Leg Down For NowHere is the current forecast assuming Minor wave 4 completed at today’s high. The original bottom of Intermediate wave 5 based on all data acquired at the end of Intermediate wave 4 is on the right. The short, long blue box was the original forecasted low based on my derivative modeling. The current forecasted levels based on possible Minor wave 5 data points are on the left. There is overlap with the original areas. The low can happen fast and likely before October 26th. The low will likely remain between 4147 and 4180. It can always go lower. Original call was a low around 4175. It is possible we go below this by 10-15 points.
Once this bottom is in, it is finally rally time (short-lived but at least a month of 250+ points.
METHODOLOGY:
I operate a modified wave theory composed of Dow Theory and Elliott Wave Theory. All data is determined from comparing current wave locations with historical wave relationships. The listed percentages are based on previous movement extensions and retracement quartiles of the data. There is too much data to list all points but overlap of the quartiles based on specific relationships tends to point to more likely targets. The light pink levels are based on most specific data, light blue is slightly broader, and yellow levels are the broader set of data used. A red level typically indicates maximum historical move for the current wave throughout the historical data.
Derivative models take the annotated waves from the above methodology and compare specific ratioed-relationships to predict future movement based off of smallest standard deviations in processed models. ***Currently in beta testing to determine efficacy***
Buythedip
The S-Pattern - Where or Why Does This Happen?Hey folks - been a while since I made one of these (not too much interesting movements in the crypto markets lately, honestly), but after a long period of inactivity in XTZ, *something* seems to have triggered a move.
There's a few people wondering where this spike in Tezos came from - unless the transaction was triggered by literally one wallet (unlikely since that would have been identified by now), we can only really speculate as to who or what "bought the dip". But generally speaking, the extreme verticality of the "pump" suggests that this was an automated trade or possibly someone with access to a button to make large hyper-coordinated trades. (If a bunch of people get together and buy-in together the price usually rises as a slope over time, not a spike.)
Since we are in a bear market right now, the rules of the game for investors changes a bit. But it's important to remind yourself of the fundamentals of supply/demand and incentives in markets themselves doesn't change. So based on that, we can make a few educated guesses:
1. Bear markets don't necessarily mean that there is no money to invest - lots of people exited the market at the beginning of this bear market, converting their assets into cash. (These are the folks who quietly sold at the top and can be considered "smart money".) They are waiting for the market to bottom out as the hype fades away.
So the money to invest itself is there (it is always there, really) - it's just unsure where or when to get back in right now. Someone or something made the guess that *this* is the bottom now, in other words.
2. The vertical part of the S-pattern suggests (automated or not) large-volume investors getting in, while the gradual slope downwards back to its original state is likely smaller investors exiting out of the ecosystem. (Many have expressed frustrations with the coin not having moved in a while and have been waiting for moments like these as an excuse to exit.)
This is primarily the way markets "cleans" itself of short-term players and the reason why institutional investors often beat retail ones in the long - they have the means and patience to wait until the very bottom of the "valley". (Another reason why it's important to only invest what you can afford to lose.)
3. You have to be careful of getting your news from the media or social media because during down markets most talks and discussions will be about how bad the markets are - which is the obvious thing to complain about during those times. The negative sentiment eventually becomes a self-fulling prophecy and the price will continue to dip until the "losers" have left the scene.
If you think about it, the only people who have a reason to complain are the ones that bought at the top and looking to recoup their losses. The ones that were in early, holding for long-term, or sold at the right time (lucky them!) don't really have much of a reason to engage with doom-spiral content.
4. And finally - smart-money investors look for primarily two things: A reason to get back in (will not happen with ponzi or vaporware projects, which is a good thing), and the right time to get back in. Even if they have done their research and believe in a project strongly, when half the people in the ecosystem are in a panicked state, it doesn't give them much confidence to get back in. At least not yet. So they wait until the price flatlines and things get quiet - are the folks threatening to exit gone yet?
This is the reason why big rallies often happen unexpectedly after long periods of no movements, rather than a "rebound" after a massive dip. It is the waiting game smart investors play to get the best spread between buying low and selling high.
--
A lot of this will feel weird and unfamiliar because I don't think crypto really has really gone through a "real" bear market - it was a product of the post-2008 0-interest rate era and a lot of the rallies were sustained by VC and hype money, which fueled a lot of irrational behavior during the last few cycles as a whole. (Including FTX.)
But now that that era has come to an end, what comes next? A bit of spring cleaning in the markets is in order - I think. A lot of people have been waiting for this moment to come for a very long time, so it could possibly be one of the biggest rebounds in history...but only time will tell. Good luck, folks. 🤞
AMZN bear flag. Must touch white TL before turning bullish. ~120This is a classic bear flag and trendline rejection on the daily.
There is no floor for AMZN buyers to keep the price up here.
Next floor and support is the white TL.
We also saw NASDAQ:AMZN breakout under a long term trend here. 120 is just a mini target. They'll tell you markets are turning bullish but give it 1-2 weeks until they start pumping out, "Gov Shutdown Looming" headlines again. Manipulation is common and allows the markets to be liquid. Stop falling for it.
In my opinion, today was a bull trap.
Look at the SP:SPX AMEX:SPY CAPITALCOM:US100 chart:
I said yesterday in a minds post that we'll pump to 430 then re-evaluate. I did not expect 430 to hit the next day. This is crucial and is usually a sign of weakness. Could be wrong.
Welcome to follow & trade with us - many callouts this month including NASDAQ:NVDA @ 415 NASDAQ:TSLA @ 234 NASDAQ:AMD @ 95
👀 AAPL very close to support, medium risk swing hereWill be looking @ NASDAQ:AAPL for a medium-risk swing here.
Currently sitting on demand zone. Looking for an easy bounce back to 174 then will re-evaluate. Either way, if it bounces back to 174, it would be testing "breakout" of that trendline.
Normally, though, that trend line rejected from today is an indication that the trend line is valid and price should continue in the direction. I'm digging the demand zone here; hence, medium risk.
Welcome to follow for more. I'm all over all the NASDAQ:AMD NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:NVDA CME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:ES1! charts everyday.
🔥 TSLA safe swing at demand zone and trend (max dip 2nd TL)I normally don't swing anything in a choppy market, especially with a giant head and shoulders signal on the daily NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:SPY charts:
However, the NASDAQ:TSLA chart shows two potential trendline supports forming. Both are valid trends. The blue one is a bit more recent, so the price will react here, possibly to 260/ 278.
In the event that NASDAQ:TSLA shows some weakness, get ready to #buythedip @ the white TL. That's super strong support and would be a 3rd touch bounce.
Targets 260 and 278 at first.
Of course, I day-trade NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:AMD NASDAQ:NVDA everyday, welcome to follow and see what I post.
Stay tuned for more fire content.
📈 AMD back @ flag's top trend. Watch for breakout/ rejectionJust a recap of this trade so far:
Posted this @ 108 calling for a bearish rejection.
After it failed to bounce from 101-103, I was certain it'd head over to 95-98, or the bottom TL at most.
When we hit the bottom TL, I called for a buy signal @ 95.
Will tag all these for proof.
Now we are at the top TL, which is the ultimate PT from 95. We hit this in 2 days. +10% in 2 days. That's right.
When you wait for swings to come to you, you will make the most money.
Here's the alert @ 95-96:
We waited a week or two for this perfect bounce. That's the best way to swing.
One way to swing is to buy, buy more, buy more, and buy some more. Another way, is to wait for the right moment and wait for the trade to come to you. If you miss it, you miss it. All good, there's tons of trades on the market.
NASDAQ:AMD NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:NVDA
TSLA watching for 255-253 again todayThis move is highly unsustainable for NASDAQ:QQQ - I called a bull run this morning @ 10 AM. We are up +2% almost on AMEX:SPY SP:SPX AMEX:DIA - watching for pull back now on buyer weakness and reality setting in.
But why TSLA? Why not NASDAQ:NVDA or NASDAQ:AMD ?
TSLA had "bad news" today
With a market pull back, TSLA will get smacked the hardest. Maybe even back to 250.
Risking $40 on 0dte to potentially make $200. High R/R.
I ran out of minds so posting here.
⚡️ Gov SHUTDOWN?! Market will tank?! What to do in this case? ⚠️⚡️Some shutdown insights with chart:
Chart shows longest shutdown: 12/22/18 - 1/25/19
The fear factor has always been PRE-shutdown. Not DURING or POST-shutdown.
⚡️ That means what?
If we shutdown, we may dip say 2-3%.
But what happens during shutdown?
You'd be surprised market actually RECOVERS during shutdown. BY A LOT.
During the shutdown in 2018-2019, the market recovered the ENTIRE DIP, whole +15%.
That's the same thing that happened in 2013. The market rose 3% during shutdown.
⚡️ So is shutdown really bad for markets?
No. Only shutdown fears really cause a dramatic effect BEFORE it happens.
Remember the psychology of "priced in". Once a shutdown happens and market reacts for a day or 2, it's priced in.
⚡️ But why?
After the shutdown happens, anything is good news.
If they announce a deal, that's good news.
If they vote, that's good news.
Thus, market does well during shutdowns.
Good luck. 🙂
AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:QQQ NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:AAPL AMEX:DIA
📈 Watch this channel for direction of tomorrow's trading dayTake note of the fakeout above the channel. I caught myself getting faked out and took the loss for $50. It's good to admit when you're wrong and learn a lesson for next time.
Descending channels are a good sign if you're looking for a reversal. They usually carry on for a while and break upwards. There of course is the rare occasion that they break downwards. Just watch for confirmation. Confirmation should be stronger than the one you see above. It should also confirm on higher timeframes such as the 1hr, 30min, and so on.
Anyway.
Direction will determine tomorrow's trading day.
Assuming this channel lasts only today, the breakout or breakdown of the channel will determine tomorrow's trading day (red or green).
Should I trade it?
Probably not. Just wait for confirmation and let it determine your trades tomorrow. You don't want to get into a trade prematurely and lose money. I usually avoid fakeouts by waiting 30-45 minutes before taking a trade, but this time got me! Happens to the best of us. As always, follow for more insight and daily tips!
AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:QQQ CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:NQ1!
🥶 FACT: Most traders quit year one. Hmm, but why? 🤔You all heard the statistic, "gambling is more profitable than trading - 13 out of 100 gamblers leave the casino with gains compared to 1 out of 100 traders". Yeah yeah. Nice story. Now tell us the real story. The market is not a casino. Don't compare. What about the thousands of traders making consistent gains?
It's a FACT that most traders quit their trading "hobby" or "career" within their first year of trading.
But what's ALSO a FACT is most traders:
Don't take profits when they see them (keep holding for more).
Go too heavy on a single trade.
Go all in on a single trade.
HODL for glory, even when they're super green on a trade.
Are too bullish/ bearish and turn a blind eye to the other bias.
Are over-speculating all the time (i.e. " NASDAQ:AMD 120 tomorrow. All in calls"
Trade without a chart.
Have no risk management.
Don't follow their own rules.
Have no trading strategy.
One cannot state the first "fact" without stating the other; the real reason. Otherwise, that's a shallow statistic. That's like looking at a 15 min chart and not realizing that each candle is constructed of 1,000+ mini candles.
Here's a 15 min NASDAQ:AMZN chart:
Here's the same chart in 15 second candles:
Zooming in to the chart gives you a clearer picture. Digging deep into the "quitting" traders' psychology, you'll get the answer. Also, I wouldn't say they quit. It's possible that the energy they were putting in wasn't paying off, and they didn't want to waste their time any further.
Treat your trading like a job. Be strict. You see quick +20% profit? Take it. But you believe it's going higher? Still take it. Find another trade. Baby gains add up!
Most traders who got burned on NYSE:AMC NYSE:GME , kept HODLing.
This is coming from someone who bought NYSE:AMC at $2.13 pre-split in 2021 and sold around $25 and $70:
ACHIEVING SUPER GAINS WILL RUIN YOUR MENTALITY!
You will start treating the market like a casino.
You will stop appreciating the smaller 20 to 40% gainers that you can do once per day or week.
You will see yourself starting to go heavy because you "believe" that "this is the next banger".
To avoid all this headache, build a strategy slowly over time, use the right tools to plan your trade, find a community to trade with, use proven strategies (i.e. support/ res, supply/ demand, patterns), go light in your first 1,000 trades, and so on. Happy to help if you have any questions below.
Follow for more insight and for live trade swing & day-trade ideas! Good luck trading! Trade safe and don't go all in.
Baby gains add up.
NQ/ QQQ resistance breakout. Watch for reversal intraday.I already played 10% scalp on this.
But it broke + retested the resistance line. Now resistance is confirmed support:
Watch it close for a good lesson even if you're not in the trade.
Already secured +10% on the breakout. Looking to see if it reverses the downtrend completely intraday.
Also remember: MMs already ROASTED the calls. Now time to ROAST the puts. Welcome to triple witching (formerly quad witching)!
Look for support and resistance lines to help with daytradesI'm looking for a DT entry here on AMD but instead of entering prematurely and hoping it goes up, I'm waiting for bullish confirmation that will happen if bulls reclaim the resistance and use it as support. Meaning, it should shoot above resistance, then dip down to that line as SUPPORT. That would be my ideal entry.
Watch to see what happens here. Good learning experience even if you are not in the trade. You are welcome to use volume and moving averages to assist you with your entries.
NASDAQ:AMD
Nasdaq -> Sell Everything Now!Hello Traders and Investors ,
my name is Philip and today I will provide a free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis of the Nasdaq 💪
Looking at the macro view on the monthly timframe you can see that at the moment the Nasdaq is retesting massive resistance of the 10+ years rising channel formation so I do expect a monthly push lower.
With the recent weekly rejection of the major previous structure zone, everything is looking like Nas100 will also break the current support level and simply drop further towards the downside.
And you can also see that there is the possibility that Nas100 will create a regular head and shoulders in combination with a double top on the daily timeframe which is a massively bearish reversal pattern suggesting that we might see a harsh move lower on Nas100.
Keep in mind: Don't get caught up in short term moves and always look at the long term picture; building wealth is a marathon and not a quick sprint📈
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
My previous analysis of this asset:
Happy Holiday And A Long Term Vision🎉Hello Traders and Investors ,
my name is Philip and I am on vacation for the next 4 days until Wednesday evening.
I won't post any analysis until then but here is a long term outlook on Bitcoin💰💰
Everything looks still very bullish despite the recent drop so keep your long term vision and I will certainly buy the dip.
Will be back on Wednesday!
Keep in mind: Don't get caught up in short term moves and always look at the long term picture; building wealth is a marathon and not a quick sprint📈
Thank you for your support and I will see you on Wednesday!
My previous analysis of this asset:
Nasdaq -> -20% Massive Drop Ahead!Hello Traders and Investors ,
my name is Philip and today I will provide a free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis of Nas100 💪
Looking at the macro view on the monthly timframe you can see that at the moment the Nasdaq is retesting massive resistance of the 10+ years rising channel formation so I do expect a monthly push lower.
With the recent strong rally on the Nasdaq it is quite likely that we will see at least a retest of the 0.382 weekly fibonacci retracement level which is then maybe acting as a first strong support area.
My last analysis on the Nasdaq perfectly played out with the Nasdaq breaking below the daily bullish trendline and creating a double top in the process - therefore everything is currently looking quite bearish and I do expect more daily downside.
Keep in mind: Don't get caught up in short term moves and always look at the long term picture; building wealth is a marathon and not a quick sprint📈
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
My previous analysis of this asset:
Tesla -> Protect Your Position Now!Hello Traders and Investors ,
my name is Philip and today I will provide a free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis of Tesla 💪
After Tesla stock retested the last strong support zone for bulls, the 0.786 fibonacci level at the $100 level, the recent pump over the past couple of months of more than 100% was no surprise at all.
With the weekly timeframe being quite overextended on Tesla, I would actually love to see a retest of the 0.618 fibonacci level which is perfectly lining up with previous market structure.
From a daily perspective you can see that Tesla is starting to create lower lows and lower highs so there is the chance that we are ready for a shorter term bearish correction - I do expect this correction to end though after we saw a retest of the $220 level.
Keep in mind: Don't get caught up in short term moves and always look at the long term picture; building wealth is a marathon and not a quick sprint📈
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
My previous analysis of this asset:
Trade Alert - Long SolanaTraders,
Solana has hit it’s previous inverse H&S neckline for a classic retest and should bounce soon provided BTC maintains its position above 25,300 tomorrow.
Position = SOL
Direction = long
Entry = 14.47
Stop Loss = 12.88
Take Profit(s) = 200 ma/19.61-19.65
Risk/Reward = 3.37/1
Best,
Stew
Trade Alert - Long BitcoinTraders,
Admittedly, taking another risky trade here. But after (3) three long months of waiting, Bitcoin has finally hit my projected neckline retest and I had to take this trade:
Position = BTC
Direction = long
Entry = 25073
Stop Loss = 23400
Take Profit(s) = 30500
Risk/Reward = 3/1
Best,
Stew
Bitcoin Forecast Sunny🌞 (Confidence: 0.98 )🌤️ Good news for Bitcoin investors! Based on the past hour's data, the weather in the Bitcoin world looks sunny ☀️. The cryptocurrency's price opened at 26302 and reached a high of 26387, with a low of 26254. This suggests a stable and positive trend in the market. The trading volume is also relatively high, indicating strong investor interest.
📈 Additionally, the EMA indicators (9, 21, 50, 100, and 200) are all showing an upward trend, with the EMA200 being the highest at 27729. This signals a potential long-term positive outlook for the cryptocurrency.
📉 However, it is important to note that the RSI value is low at 33, indicating that Bitcoin may be oversold. This could mean a possible price correction in the near future. The MACD value of -314 is also negative, which could indicate a bearish trend.
Overall, the sunny forecast 🌤️ is based on the positive trend seen in the majority of the indicators, with the caveat that investors should keep a close eye on the RSI and MACD values for any potential changes in the market.
Post-Fed Update: Ignore Fed RedWe likely just finished Minor wave 2 with the low today or if another low is reached shortly after the open. The prior low at 4049 is the level to watch. A drop below this would likely place us on my prior analysis PATH TWO and continue Intermediate wave 2.
Intermediate wave 3 still remains the likely location and the drop today would have been the Minute wave C we needed to finish Minor wave 2. As of now, strongest model agreement has Minor wave 3 lasting 6 days with next strongest models at 4 days. For waves ending in C33, first quartile move extension would be 150.48% of Minor wave 1, with the median move at 202% and third quartile at 396.60%. There is a horizontal trendline just above 202% so the end of wave three will likely remain below 4330. The drop today presents plenty of ground to be gained starting tomorrow.
The overall end of Intermediate wave 3 could occur sometime before the final week in May. Right now the final market top appears on track for mid-June so a debt ceiling issue by June 1 may not be likely....yet.
I should provide another update around the middle of next week if not one over the weekend.
MATICUSDT Potential Bullish BreakoutMATIC is currently approaching a crucial Fibonacci level that aligns with a trendline created by higher lows. This price range has seen MOST of the recent trading activity, as shown on the chart. Therefore, there is a possibility for a bullish breakout in the near future, especially after the markets close on the weekend. The trading idea suggests buying Matic on Friday and selling it on Monday, as the weekend closure may trigger positive market sentiment and a potential price increase. However, it's important to monitor the price action and adjust the trading plan accordingly to manage the risk.