📈 Watch this channel for direction of tomorrow's trading dayTake note of the fakeout above the channel. I caught myself getting faked out and took the loss for $50. It's good to admit when you're wrong and learn a lesson for next time.
Descending channels are a good sign if you're looking for a reversal. They usually carry on for a while and break upwards. There of course is the rare occasion that they break downwards. Just watch for confirmation. Confirmation should be stronger than the one you see above. It should also confirm on higher timeframes such as the 1hr, 30min, and so on.
Anyway.
Direction will determine tomorrow's trading day.
Assuming this channel lasts only today, the breakout or breakdown of the channel will determine tomorrow's trading day (red or green).
Should I trade it?
Probably not. Just wait for confirmation and let it determine your trades tomorrow. You don't want to get into a trade prematurely and lose money. I usually avoid fakeouts by waiting 30-45 minutes before taking a trade, but this time got me! Happens to the best of us. As always, follow for more insight and daily tips!
AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:QQQ CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:NQ1!
Buythedip
🥶 FACT: Most traders quit year one. Hmm, but why? 🤔You all heard the statistic, "gambling is more profitable than trading - 13 out of 100 gamblers leave the casino with gains compared to 1 out of 100 traders". Yeah yeah. Nice story. Now tell us the real story. The market is not a casino. Don't compare. What about the thousands of traders making consistent gains?
It's a FACT that most traders quit their trading "hobby" or "career" within their first year of trading.
But what's ALSO a FACT is most traders:
Don't take profits when they see them (keep holding for more).
Go too heavy on a single trade.
Go all in on a single trade.
HODL for glory, even when they're super green on a trade.
Are too bullish/ bearish and turn a blind eye to the other bias.
Are over-speculating all the time (i.e. " NASDAQ:AMD 120 tomorrow. All in calls"
Trade without a chart.
Have no risk management.
Don't follow their own rules.
Have no trading strategy.
One cannot state the first "fact" without stating the other; the real reason. Otherwise, that's a shallow statistic. That's like looking at a 15 min chart and not realizing that each candle is constructed of 1,000+ mini candles.
Here's a 15 min NASDAQ:AMZN chart:
Here's the same chart in 15 second candles:
Zooming in to the chart gives you a clearer picture. Digging deep into the "quitting" traders' psychology, you'll get the answer. Also, I wouldn't say they quit. It's possible that the energy they were putting in wasn't paying off, and they didn't want to waste their time any further.
Treat your trading like a job. Be strict. You see quick +20% profit? Take it. But you believe it's going higher? Still take it. Find another trade. Baby gains add up!
Most traders who got burned on NYSE:AMC NYSE:GME , kept HODLing.
This is coming from someone who bought NYSE:AMC at $2.13 pre-split in 2021 and sold around $25 and $70:
ACHIEVING SUPER GAINS WILL RUIN YOUR MENTALITY!
You will start treating the market like a casino.
You will stop appreciating the smaller 20 to 40% gainers that you can do once per day or week.
You will see yourself starting to go heavy because you "believe" that "this is the next banger".
To avoid all this headache, build a strategy slowly over time, use the right tools to plan your trade, find a community to trade with, use proven strategies (i.e. support/ res, supply/ demand, patterns), go light in your first 1,000 trades, and so on. Happy to help if you have any questions below.
Follow for more insight and for live trade swing & day-trade ideas! Good luck trading! Trade safe and don't go all in.
Baby gains add up.
NQ/ QQQ resistance breakout. Watch for reversal intraday.I already played 10% scalp on this.
But it broke + retested the resistance line. Now resistance is confirmed support:
Watch it close for a good lesson even if you're not in the trade.
Already secured +10% on the breakout. Looking to see if it reverses the downtrend completely intraday.
Also remember: MMs already ROASTED the calls. Now time to ROAST the puts. Welcome to triple witching (formerly quad witching)!
Look for support and resistance lines to help with daytradesI'm looking for a DT entry here on AMD but instead of entering prematurely and hoping it goes up, I'm waiting for bullish confirmation that will happen if bulls reclaim the resistance and use it as support. Meaning, it should shoot above resistance, then dip down to that line as SUPPORT. That would be my ideal entry.
Watch to see what happens here. Good learning experience even if you are not in the trade. You are welcome to use volume and moving averages to assist you with your entries.
NASDAQ:AMD
Nasdaq -> Sell Everything Now!Hello Traders and Investors ,
my name is Philip and today I will provide a free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis of the Nasdaq 💪
Looking at the macro view on the monthly timframe you can see that at the moment the Nasdaq is retesting massive resistance of the 10+ years rising channel formation so I do expect a monthly push lower.
With the recent weekly rejection of the major previous structure zone, everything is looking like Nas100 will also break the current support level and simply drop further towards the downside.
And you can also see that there is the possibility that Nas100 will create a regular head and shoulders in combination with a double top on the daily timeframe which is a massively bearish reversal pattern suggesting that we might see a harsh move lower on Nas100.
Keep in mind: Don't get caught up in short term moves and always look at the long term picture; building wealth is a marathon and not a quick sprint📈
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
My previous analysis of this asset:
Happy Holiday And A Long Term Vision🎉Hello Traders and Investors ,
my name is Philip and I am on vacation for the next 4 days until Wednesday evening.
I won't post any analysis until then but here is a long term outlook on Bitcoin💰💰
Everything looks still very bullish despite the recent drop so keep your long term vision and I will certainly buy the dip.
Will be back on Wednesday!
Keep in mind: Don't get caught up in short term moves and always look at the long term picture; building wealth is a marathon and not a quick sprint📈
Thank you for your support and I will see you on Wednesday!
My previous analysis of this asset:
Nasdaq -> -20% Massive Drop Ahead!Hello Traders and Investors ,
my name is Philip and today I will provide a free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis of Nas100 💪
Looking at the macro view on the monthly timframe you can see that at the moment the Nasdaq is retesting massive resistance of the 10+ years rising channel formation so I do expect a monthly push lower.
With the recent strong rally on the Nasdaq it is quite likely that we will see at least a retest of the 0.382 weekly fibonacci retracement level which is then maybe acting as a first strong support area.
My last analysis on the Nasdaq perfectly played out with the Nasdaq breaking below the daily bullish trendline and creating a double top in the process - therefore everything is currently looking quite bearish and I do expect more daily downside.
Keep in mind: Don't get caught up in short term moves and always look at the long term picture; building wealth is a marathon and not a quick sprint📈
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
My previous analysis of this asset:
Tesla -> Protect Your Position Now!Hello Traders and Investors ,
my name is Philip and today I will provide a free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis of Tesla 💪
After Tesla stock retested the last strong support zone for bulls, the 0.786 fibonacci level at the $100 level, the recent pump over the past couple of months of more than 100% was no surprise at all.
With the weekly timeframe being quite overextended on Tesla, I would actually love to see a retest of the 0.618 fibonacci level which is perfectly lining up with previous market structure.
From a daily perspective you can see that Tesla is starting to create lower lows and lower highs so there is the chance that we are ready for a shorter term bearish correction - I do expect this correction to end though after we saw a retest of the $220 level.
Keep in mind: Don't get caught up in short term moves and always look at the long term picture; building wealth is a marathon and not a quick sprint📈
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
My previous analysis of this asset:
Trade Alert - Long SolanaTraders,
Solana has hit it’s previous inverse H&S neckline for a classic retest and should bounce soon provided BTC maintains its position above 25,300 tomorrow.
Position = SOL
Direction = long
Entry = 14.47
Stop Loss = 12.88
Take Profit(s) = 200 ma/19.61-19.65
Risk/Reward = 3.37/1
Best,
Stew
Trade Alert - Long BitcoinTraders,
Admittedly, taking another risky trade here. But after (3) three long months of waiting, Bitcoin has finally hit my projected neckline retest and I had to take this trade:
Position = BTC
Direction = long
Entry = 25073
Stop Loss = 23400
Take Profit(s) = 30500
Risk/Reward = 3/1
Best,
Stew
Bitcoin Forecast Sunny🌞 (Confidence: 0.98 )🌤️ Good news for Bitcoin investors! Based on the past hour's data, the weather in the Bitcoin world looks sunny ☀️. The cryptocurrency's price opened at 26302 and reached a high of 26387, with a low of 26254. This suggests a stable and positive trend in the market. The trading volume is also relatively high, indicating strong investor interest.
📈 Additionally, the EMA indicators (9, 21, 50, 100, and 200) are all showing an upward trend, with the EMA200 being the highest at 27729. This signals a potential long-term positive outlook for the cryptocurrency.
📉 However, it is important to note that the RSI value is low at 33, indicating that Bitcoin may be oversold. This could mean a possible price correction in the near future. The MACD value of -314 is also negative, which could indicate a bearish trend.
Overall, the sunny forecast 🌤️ is based on the positive trend seen in the majority of the indicators, with the caveat that investors should keep a close eye on the RSI and MACD values for any potential changes in the market.
Post-Fed Update: Ignore Fed RedWe likely just finished Minor wave 2 with the low today or if another low is reached shortly after the open. The prior low at 4049 is the level to watch. A drop below this would likely place us on my prior analysis PATH TWO and continue Intermediate wave 2.
Intermediate wave 3 still remains the likely location and the drop today would have been the Minute wave C we needed to finish Minor wave 2. As of now, strongest model agreement has Minor wave 3 lasting 6 days with next strongest models at 4 days. For waves ending in C33, first quartile move extension would be 150.48% of Minor wave 1, with the median move at 202% and third quartile at 396.60%. There is a horizontal trendline just above 202% so the end of wave three will likely remain below 4330. The drop today presents plenty of ground to be gained starting tomorrow.
The overall end of Intermediate wave 3 could occur sometime before the final week in May. Right now the final market top appears on track for mid-June so a debt ceiling issue by June 1 may not be likely....yet.
I should provide another update around the middle of next week if not one over the weekend.
MATICUSDT Potential Bullish BreakoutMATIC is currently approaching a crucial Fibonacci level that aligns with a trendline created by higher lows. This price range has seen MOST of the recent trading activity, as shown on the chart. Therefore, there is a possibility for a bullish breakout in the near future, especially after the markets close on the weekend. The trading idea suggests buying Matic on Friday and selling it on Monday, as the weekend closure may trigger positive market sentiment and a potential price increase. However, it's important to monitor the price action and adjust the trading plan accordingly to manage the risk.
BTC/USDT Is comeback possible?BTC just bounced on bottom trend line for 3rd time and apparently it is retreating quite strong. Of course, breaking trendline and dip even further is possible, but is bullish triangle comeback is possible? If bulls pull this off, it could be really huge for crypto market. Wish you the best!
Nano (xno) where are you going? Risk reward 4.4For a long time, the asset is in the accumulation stage, and on the daily timeframe, you can see the resulting double bottom. If the resistance zone is broken through and the asset is fixed above 0.935, I expect growth to the area of $1.3
This is not a financial recommendation, everything you do you do at your own peril and risk.
HOW TO BUY THE DIP- What is considered the bottom for a coin?
- How to identify the bottom?
- What technical analysis tools to use?
- What are the fundamental prerequisites for the bottom?
What is the bottom for a crypto asset?
The bottom is the lowest price level of a crypto asset, after which the price of this asset is expected to rise.
The bottom is not always an absolute measure for the entire history of the existence of an asset, but can be calculated for a certain period: a year, a quarter or a month.
How to identify the bottom
Each trader has his own set of tools to determine when to buy an asset.
Here are some of the most clearest signs to each of us:
There is a protracted flat with the upper border breakdowns
The movement occurs in a strong support zone and is accompanied by high volumes
The order book contains big bid checks
Good news on the market or the project
The price is lower than the sale price (ICO, IEO, IDO etc.)
The bottom we search for is not a new all-time bottom
Protracted flat with the upper border breakout
If you observe that for a long time: 2 weeks, 1 month, - the price is at the same level, while occasionally trying to “break out” up, that is, the resistance line is broken, then this is in 90% of cases - the impulse to the rapid growth of prices.
However, if the breakout is more often than just the support level, then get ready to test a new bottom.
Strong support zone and high side volumes
Determine that there is a strong support zone at this level, that is, it met more than 3 times on the chart for the period under study and is supported by good horizontal volumes (Volume indicator).
Display the VPVR (Volume Profile Visible Range) indicator on the same period on the screen and evaluate whether the maximum vertical volumes for the selected period are at this level.
Big average checks
If you observe volumes above average with a “small” candle body, then there are purchases at the same price for a large amount.
This may indicate "big checks" or high market density.
To confirm the existence of “big checks”, you can refer to the order book and make sure that there are real bid orders for large amounts.
Fundamental prerequisites
As an extra springboard from the bottom, news resources can:
Issue positive analytics from experts on this asset
Record the activity of major players - funds
Report new technologies that have been released or are about to be released by the project
Share the conditions for large investments in the project by large funds, etc.
Price analysis for IDO, ICO and Private Sale
If the project token or coin appeared on the market following one of the popular types of crowdfunding: ICO, IEO or IDO, the most popular one, then you need to compare the Public Sale price with the current price.
If the current price is below the Public Sale price of the IDO, then you can put this in another checkbox on your checklist as a sign of a potential bottom.
If the IDO price was lower, then this is not a bottom, there are still a large number of investors on the market who bought the coin at a lower price, which means they can sell it cheaper.
Our bottom is not a new all-time bottom
As we noted earlier, a support line is formed at the level of the potential bottom.
If the price has never dropped so low in the history of the asset, then we cannot build a support zone, which means that the price can go even lower and find many new bottoms.
BTCUSD: The bottom is in! 🚀The Indicator Pi Cycle was been very accurate in the past. It has been quite effective in determining tops and bottoms. About Pi Cycle Indikator TOP: It uses the cross of 111 day SMA and 350x2 day SMA. About Pi Cycle Indikator BOTTOM: It uses the cross of 150 day SMA and 471x0.745 day EMA. And the RSI is below 50, which is also a clear bottom signal imo.
My recommendation as always: Buy the dips and hodl. 😀
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Let's see what happens.
Happy trading.
BTCINVESTING
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My Post Apr 17, 2021 "BTCUSD: Whats about PiCycle? A bearish signal?"
My Post Dec 15, 2021 "BTCUSD: Difference - Bearish Downtrend | Bullish Accumulation"
My Post Apr 15, 2019 (3 year ago!). I was one of the first btw. ;-)
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FOOLS RALLY! $doge down!DOGE has had its peak! it will have a fools rally and then drop! I AGREE WITH BUY THE DIP; but buy the right dip! NO one wants expired CHIP DIP!
The market cycle psychology chart tells me that this is entering to a fools rally next then a downtrend that is harsh! AFTER IT PLUMMETS to below 0.133USDT I will not be buying the dip! THE DIP IS IN THE 0.12-0.133 range . I will be gradually accumulating my position and keep in mind the coins that are tied to the trends, such as $ELON and $DC. $DC might be able to separate from this trend. BUT $ELON I don't think will run independently on its on momentum. DOGECHAIN will be interesting to see what hype is generated from releases on the chain. Its going to be a great year! 2023! Happy trading and don't get greedy or panic!
*This is my personal thought and not financial advice! I am not endorsing cryptocurrency and there are risks with investing. Always do you own research! #DYOR*
-Cryptonightowl
Sticking to stop loss is a must to do when ((BUYING the DIP))Opening a position without setting a stop loss is a big mistake and it can be disastrous when buying the dip !
Here, we show a tempting setup to open a long position in rectangle (1) . It is of course OK to go long in this setup in the hope of catching possible up coming up going wave shown in green. But without setting a stop loss? Not at all ! Followings are just two simple possible scenario which may happen:
Rectangle (2) shows a scenario which may happen if lucky. Although it will bring us profit, believe me it bothers all the traders a lot emotionally. Lots of hopes and fears which makes us nervous. This not only ruin our current trade but also has a powerful negative impact on our next trades.
Rectangle (3) shows a terrifying scenario which can whip out all our capital ! Please keep it in mind that " Preserving capital is a first rule of trading ". If you think this is an unrealistic scenario just take a look at ETSY, SHOP, SQ and ROKU.
Be aware my friends : what we consider a possible abc form of correction can just be waves 1,2 and 3 of a larger degree wave 1 or A . This concept is shown on the rectangle (3) scenario. It is worth to note what is labeled as wave 1 or A in this rectangle is not end of down side move .There will be another at least same size down side move after a wave 2 or B counter trend correction. See the charts carefully to find out what is next after waves 1 or A.
There are 4 major rules in trading :
1. preserving the capital
2. preserving the capital
3. preserving the capital and if successful then:
4. making profit.
Hope to be helpful and good luck.
Realty Income Corp Set To Move Up Prior To Inflation ReportBased on historical movement, the trough could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending top should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated BUY on September 23, 2022 with a closing price of 61.81.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should rise to at least 63.129999999999995 which is the bottom of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock rise 4.728% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the bottom of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock rise 6.7065% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock rise 8.6685% from the signal closing price which is the top of the smaller green box. The maximum rise on record would see a move to the top of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The peak of the rise can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max rise occurs within the limit of study at 35 trading bars after the signal. A 1% rise must occur over the next 35 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 15.5 trading bars; half occur within 28.0 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 33.5 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).