Time is not a Bears friendOn Friday Croissant assessed the state of the market on TD Ameritrade Network
In the assessment, CEM enlightens us to the short term options market outlook.
We are still within the window of weakness (no vanna or charm flows) before the fed announcement, but time is not a bears friend.
It's speculated that taper will begin in Nov and will be announced in tomorrows fed meeting.
There are 2 supporting factors driving the next few weeks after the fed meeting in options flows.
1) Fed Meeting passing (end of vol event) will provide support as event vol comes out of the market.
2) HUGE JPM quarterly trade. (end of September)
Both are lined up to provide support. CEM points out to watch the flow levels between 430 into 440.
The Opportunity
SKEW is very high.
Term Structure is very steep.
PUT / CALL SKEW is elevated meaning there is higher put open interest.
The steepness of that curve, the pricing (premiums on puts x2 that of calls).
Sell What is high (Puts)
Buy closer to ATM VOL & GAMMA
This force is suppressive. It makes it hard for the markets to decline.
Usually into a rally and a blow off top which we saw today at Market Close.
If you haven't already, check out Cem Karsan .
Cem retweeted @Barton_option thread breakdown of the Evergrande events.
I suggest reading the entire thread.
@Barton_option ends with:
END/ After the short-term emotional sell-off is over, US equity market is probably going back to whatever track it was on before the Evergrande default.
Buythedip
Future SPX BuysTo melt or not to melt?
THAT IS THE QUESTION!
This charting is for all you bull hearted heroes out there, I know people are terrified of the price going to zero ten minutes after close, but my apes inside all assure me that any dip in price is ALWAYS a long term opportunity! Please use this charting as a reference to your own analysis! And as always,
MAY THE FORCE BE WITH YOU ALL
Weekly Watchlist 9/20 - 9/24Here is what stocks we are watching for this week!
NASDAQ:NVDA
Currently range bounce with a support of $518. Will looks to take puts on a move under that 518 level.
NYSE:GS
Looking at a double top on the daily level. Looking to take puts under the $388 level
NASDAQ:CRWD
Clean bear flag showing on the daily chart. If we get more selling in tech this should see some nice downside on the break of $259.50
NYSE:SNAP
SNAP we are keeping on from last week's watchlist. Looking to take calls to the upside on a break of $76
Union Pacific Signaling Buy Train AheadBased on historical movement, the trough could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending top should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated BUY on September 17, 2021 with a closing price of 201.93.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should rise to at least 203.49 which is the bottom of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock rise 2.45% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the bottom of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock rise 5.132% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock rise 9.312% from the signal closing price which is the top of the smaller green box. The maximum rise on record would see a move to the top of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The peak of the rise can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max rise occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.75% rise must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 22 trading bars; half occur within 32 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 38 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
Another Big Pharma Finding The BottomBased on historical movement, the trough could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending top should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated BUY on September 17, 2021 with a closing price of 38.93.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should rise to at least 39.62 which is the bottom of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock rise 4.748% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the bottom of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock rise 6.534% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock rise 9.869% from the signal closing price which is the top of the smaller green box. The maximum rise on record would see a move to the top of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The peak of the rise can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max rise occurs within the limit of study at 35 trading bars after the signal. A 1% rise must occur over the next 35 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 20 trading bars; half occur within 30 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 33 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
Atomos Energy Will Bottom SoonBased on historical movement, the trough could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending top should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated BUY on September 15, 2021 with a closing price of 89.56.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should rise to at least 91.07 which is the bottom of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock rise 4.175% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the bottom of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock rise 7.193% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock rise 18.853% from the signal closing price which is the top of the smaller green box. The maximum rise on record would see a move to the top of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The peak of the rise can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max rise occurs within the limit of study at 35 trading bars after the signal. A 1% rise must occur over the next 35 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 16 trading bars; half occur within 24 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 30 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
FB pullback to the 50sma again... Buying the dipFacebook has tested the 50sma at least 4 times since March 2021.
Transposing the past trends from the 50sma to today's action we get several targets for taking partial profits.
OBV is still in a supportive uptrend, however, RSI has reached its worst level since mid-March at 43.
Very clear opportunity to enter a position now around the 50sma. If the price stays above the last low on August 19th around $351, we are still making higher highs and higher lows.
Bristol-Myers Squibb Set To Rise, ButLooks like a little more downside is possible through remainder of month, but BMY is primed for a very strong October if the algorithms are correct and history continues to be accurate.
Based on historical movement, the trough could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending top should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated BUY on September 15, 2021 with a closing price of 62.0.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should rise to at least 62.9 which is the bottom of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock rise 3.9935% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the bottom of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock rise 6.5875% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock rise 10.224499999999999% from the signal closing price which is the top of the smaller green box. The maximum rise on record would see a move to the top of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The peak of the rise can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max rise occurs within the limit of study at 35 trading bars after the signal. A 1% rise must occur over the next 35 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 6.5 trading bars; half occur within 19.0 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 31.0 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
✅S&P500 RISING CHANNEL|LONG🚀
✅S&P500 is trading in a rising channel
And now we are seeing a nice little correction
I think that after the index retests the rising support
We will see the "buy the dip" mechanism kick in
And the price will make a move up
Continuing the bullish trend until the end of the year
LONG🚀
✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
JNJ: BUY THE DIPJNJ: an amazing long opportunity
~Every time JNJ has gone overbought on the RSI like it is right now, it has gone up very strongly
~JNJ is trading in a parallel uptrend for the most part since October 2020 (white area) with a few minor outlying price action movements.
^^ Price is touching the long term support line. Confirming the RSI foreshadowing.
~I expect resistance at 171, 174-176, 180.
^^Breaking 180 will let it soar to 185-187 (the top of the parallel uptrend)
🔥 Bitcoin Buy The Dip: Back To 50kAfter the massive dump that we saw early in the week, BTC has been trading sideways. During this dump I made a post where I argued that this was most likely a dip and that BTC would soon resume the bullish move upwards.
With this today's bullish push, the case I argued for earlier becomes ever more likely. Alts are already seeing huge moves (ALGO, SRM, SOL, etc) and printing new ATH's, which makes it clear that bullish belief is still there.
Furthermore, the sell-off was mostly triggered by leveraged traders getting liquidated. Long term holders didn't get affected by this dump, see on-chain metrics.
The main area of resistance for the coming hours is the $47,500 resistance area, based at the first huge red candles close. If we manage to get a daily close above this area, I'm willing to bet were going to see $50k in the near future.
As mentioned earlier, I'm bullish. However, there's still a chance for a further move down. A lot of investors were calling for a 42k and lower BTC soon, interested to see the bearish charts in the comments.
Happy trading!
higher low dip buyThis could be a higher low compared to August.This could also be a 1 year higher low.
Financials are still great, stock only dipped because some sexual harassment allegations. Activision is becoming complacent, but America hasn't stopped buying every call of duty for 10 years. If you ever played a call of duty, you know the core audience doesn't GAF about sexual harassment, rather scream in the mic about doing your mom. Only the rich radical left short the stock, because they want to punish the company, over stuff they themselves do.
It could still retreat to $50 as we enter a more bearish market. But it could bounce here. So small entry here, buy at each fib down, sell a little at each fib up. Should jump back up by next earnings, if it doesn't rebound off the fibs.
🔥 Bitcoin Major Shake-Out: Buying The DipToday, Bitcoin saw a massive shake-out happening. It was clear that BTC needed some kind of correction after going straight up for almost two months, but this was a rather unexpected move.
Historically speaking, buying the dip is a great strategy when Bitcoin is making huge downward moves. As it seems now, BTC bounced off the 20-week SMA, which is one of the main indicators of bull-cycles.
Long-term, things are still looking good for Bitcoin:
In case there was still an alt coin that you wanted to pick up for cheap, now is your chance.
Happy trading!
Buy The Dip(SBUX)I have done further analysis on SBUX and why I like this stock on another one of my ideas so I think this is a great buy the dip opportunity. We are seeing a decrease in selling momentum, Willy buy signal, and the daily weis wave dictates little bearish interest on this stock. I like this stock but one thing we do need is for the Williams %R oscillator to signal another crossover for greater confirmation. Watch out for an increase in selling momentum, but for the time being I am holding this stock. I am personally watching the 120 zone for price targets, but it is always best to exit trades when you are given the signal to do so.
▼My Other Analysis ▼
BUY THE DIP and LONG TOMO/USDTTOMO is at the lower support and is likely to bounce 10% to 15% from the current price.
Open entry at $2.7 to $2.81
Stop Loss: $2.63
Targets:
$2.918
$3.027
$3.169
Accumulate this coin with 5x leverage and do hold your SL tight.
Note: This ain't financial advice. I have done my own research and trading at my own risk. So, do your own research before taking this trade.
Correction Inc.I know the last thing you ever want to do in any market is speak of it with certainty, BUT... I'd be VERY surprised if we aren't on the edge of a correction right now. Shorting is for wimps, and people who know how to pick tops better than this guy so i've deleveraged and waiting to get longer than that one kid in class who didn't understand their social obligation to keep their class speech brief. Enjoy
ULTA looking to make new all time highs!ULTA (Ulta Beauty, Inc) is testing resistance around the $355 area that dates back to mid 2019.
Fundamentally,
* It's undervalued with a PEG of 0.77
* Its earnings per share is expected to grow over the coming year.
Technically,
* General up trend
* Beta > 1 (following the general market trend)
* Broke above the resistance of $315 that dates back to 2017 and retested it as support
* It's approaching and testing resistance that dates back to 2019 and is looking to break through
Final thoughts:
* This is a good long term hold as the company is generally doing really well.
* It's currently undervalued, meaning it's actually worth more than the current price.
* Now would be a good time to get in if you're looking to hold this for the long term.
* If you're looking for a discount, look for buying opportunities around the $340 area
* If the price closes below $340 then look for buying opportunities around the $330 area.
Alternatively, if you like to buy high and sell higher, you can look for the price to make a weekly close above $355.36.
BTC/USD any pullback is a buyHi followers,
BINANCE:BTCUSD is up about 10% last week. Are we forming a new uptrend? What do you think?
While the bitcoin stays above 40,000$, any move down should be considered as a buying opportunity.
Don't forget to manage your risk! 👌
Good luck and trade with care 🙏
If you like my content - 👍 Like, 💬 comment, 👆 follow and 👉 share!
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Disclaimer: This information is not a recommendation to BUY or SELL. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
What is stopping you from buying when the risk very low?Current Market cap $619.117.309
And there is Realized RHODL Ratio. In this chart u can see we are on the bull run, somebody does not sell any BTC so if u sold out, so don't wait for the Big Guy call u and say "Hey bro! Let's buy Bitcoin!!"
www.lookintobitcoin.com
Look at The Puell Multiple chart. It's not today, not tomorrow, but this will happen soon, nobody buy then who buy?
www.lookintobitcoin.com
There are some coins,tokens with low risk mybe u refer: Grt, Ont, Bel,...
Anything that doesn't make sense, please give me a comment. Please motivate me to develop myself and help someone needed. Good luck!!
Don't forget click like, it's a hug for me. Thanks you!
GBP/USD POSSIBLY ON NEW TREND !! Possible Pull Back? It seems that GBP/USD has shown reversal signs therefore we can expect good Bull-run now. It is possibly the BUYING TIME on Pull-back.
Note: Please do your own research before taking any trade.
Buy zone: 1.38150-1.38300
Stop loss: 1.37370
1st Target: 1.40860
2nd Target: Will be updated later