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Bitcoin:Monthly chart ViewHi guys. Hope you have had perfect trades. In this idea i will share you some TA perspectives about Bitcoin Longterm reactions according to historical datas. As you can see each time the price reached the MA50 , made a trough below it and then come back above. Now we can se in Monthly chart that after price shaped a Bottom under MA50 , it tries to come back above with a Bullish Engulfing pattern. after that we surpass MA50 with another white candle and now , Unfortunately we have some frauds in market. (China Evergrande Group bankruptcy and Tesla sold millions of BTC). So in my opinion after a few weeks , Bitcoin start to continue its smoothed run and go towards 36000. its the level we will see at the end of 2023. after that... Lets see what will happen and dont predict far futures :) If you like my opinion please tell me yours in comment. Thank you all my friends
BNC:BLXLong
by TraderAmin-KZ
6
Time to forecast the quick run upIn addition to wave theory I have developed a line theory of sorts. I draw lines based on only two points to judge support, resistance, or potential trends. I personally do not call things a trend until 3 occurrences are observed so marking these lines based on two points are not a trend. I draw the following: Red lines = Beginning of wave 1 to top of wave 2 generally contains entire impulsive wave. Green lines = End of wave 3 of 1 to end of wave 5 of 1 generally gets end of wave 5 of 3. Yellow lines = Beginning of corrective wave (A1) to end of wave C3 generally gets end of corrective wave (C5). Blue lines = End of Micro 2 to end of Macro 2 or 4 confirms end to macro impulse. White lines = End of wave 2 to end of wave 4, break beyond confirms impulse is over. I have remained in the camp of still being in Intermediate wave 5 down for at least a few more weeks, but some of the Line Theory above along with Elliott Wave Theory has me thinking otherwise. There are two main reasons I believe Cycle wave A has likely ended. 1 - Some Elliott Wave (EW) theorists hold that Wave 4 cannot go into the same realm of Wave 1 which has now occurred as of Friday. Intermediate wave 1 ended with a bottom of 3886.75. While this level remained a solid resistance, it was broken on Friday and Intermediate wave 4 is now above it. While this is a principal or rule of EW theory to some, I have seen these broken multiple times in my studies that otherwise kept waves intact and I do not give strong consideration on its own. 2 - Two major breaks with my light blue lines. Minor 2 inside of Intermediate 1 to Intermediate 2 was broke on October 25. This would confirm the current impulse has ended. Second, the light blue lines from a micro 2 to a macro 2 or macro 4 are always downward when that is the direction of the trend Minor 2 inside of Intermediate 3 to the current position (assuming end of Intermediate 4) is nearly flat while barely downward in the moment. This is stemming from the Minor 2 top at 3907.07 to the current top of 3905.42. Monday will likely tip this line upward. Here is the chart of my old theory with the two violations. If we are still in Cycle A and Intermediate wave 4, we have retraced 65.93% of Intermediate wave 3’s movement which puts this into the final quartile based on historical data. New Theory - Cycle B The only two things I do not like about this theory is that Intermediate wave 5 inside of Primary 5 would have been quite short at only 6 days. Granted this tied the all-time minimum length so its not impossible. Secondly, my early top estimates are around 4600, however, our recent gains have us moving so fast that we could hit that mark well ahead of schedule. Granted we will swing up in Primary wave A, down in B and then back up to our final top during wave C. I plotted out the full length of the bear market back on July 4th ( ). At that time I forecasted the length to be around 813 from start to finish which would place the bottom around March 2025. I also plotted the bottom in October this year and next major top in the summer of 2023. On August 20th, I broke down what a bear market over 813 trading days would look like based on historical wave lengths and relationships ( ). Cycle wave A is was estimated to last around 25% of the length of Supercycle wave 2. This would place Cycle wave A ending around October 18th. As of now, the bottom was October 13th, which is only 3 trading days earlier than estimated. This implies the bear market bottom remains on track for around March 2025 for now. If we are in Cycle wave B now, this would mean the market is in Sub-Millennial wave 1, Grand SuperCycle 5, SuperCycle 2, Cycle wave B and most likely Primary A, Intermediate 1, Minor wave 4. The full short reference to this point is 152BA14. Total stats for Cycle wave A had it begin at 4818.62 on January 4, 2022. It ended 195 trading days later at 3491.58. By October 13, 2022, the market had dropped 1327.04 from top to bottom which was a loss of 27.54%. Projection for Cycle wave B: Gain 1108.42 points over 190 days. LENGTH: Based on waves ending in 152B, the models weakly forecast the full length of Cycle B to last 29, 39, 65, 143 or 223 days in length. 142 days is near early summer estimates around May 10, 2023 while 223 days lines up with the late summer 2023 estimate near September 5. Based on waves ending in 52B, the same lengths are possible with the addition of 117, 146, and 165 days. The most model agreement is 195 days which would tie the length of Cycle A and end around July 26, 2023. Lastly, waves ending in 2B provide strongest model agreement at 98 days (March 23, 2023) followed by 195 days again. Waves ending in 52B tend to comprise 21-27% of the wave they reside inside. If the overall larger wave is around 810 days (new target based on Cycle wave A length), 21% could make Cycle wave B 170 days long while 27% is 218 days. Even though waves ending in 152B rarely last the same length or longer than the wave A that precedes them, I will place the estimate at 190 days for now. GAIN: Based on waves ending in 152B, the first quartile of movement retracement of wave A is at 51.30% while the median retracement is 71.43% and third quartile is 72.07%. Wave B has retraced 113.17% of wave A before which would present new all-time highs for the index if that occurred here. Waves ending in 52B have a first quartile retracement of 67.02%, median at 81.39% and third quartile of 94.28%. Lastly, waves ending in 2B have a reduced first quartile at 58.61%, median at 76.51% and third quartile of 88.81%. FORECAST: For now, I am projecting a top around 4600 by mid to late July 2023. This would be a gain of 1,108.42 points, or 31.75% off the bottom, in nearly 190 days. Based on these projections I am plotting Primary wave A and wave B at the following locations. PRIMARY WAVE A tends to contribute 12.5 – 61.93% to the length of the overall wave it resides inside. With an overall projection at 190 days, this could make Primary wave A 22 – 117 days long. The first quartile is 23.77%, median is 35.19%, and third quartile is 52.91%. That equates to day lengths of 45, 67, and 100 respectively. Wave As in generally account for around 25% of the waves the reside in. We will bump the estimated length to around 50 days which aligns with the final trading day before Christmas. The movement tends to contribute 24-156% of the overall move with the first quartile at 49.86%, median at 73.33% and third quartile at 89.84%. These find levels could place the next market top in 2022 at 3756.60 (already past), 4044.29, 4304.38, 4487.44, and 5223.26. At the breakneck pace the market has travelled in two weeks, a top around 4375-4430 is most likely. PRIMARY WAVE B tends to contribute 8 - 50% to the length of the overall wave it resides inside. The potential lengths based on the minimum, quartiles, and maximum would be 15, 24, 41, 60 and 95 days long. Additional datapoints can provide more numbers when considering the historical relationships between waves A and B. Wave A tends to be at least twice the length of wave B pitting the potential median length of this wave B near 22 days long. When considering the first quartile relationship wave B could be longer at 66 days. There is a Federal Reserve meeting at the beginning of February which would be approximately 25 days into wave B and another in late March at 59 days into wave B. We will plot the bottom of B at the latter meeting for now as the Federal Reserve should be able to see some inflation improvement from the 2022 rate hikes and the legislative agenda of a new Congress. Wave B’s movement is likely to make up 18-45% of the larger wave which would take it to roughly today’s trading prices. Coincidently, in March 2023 this would be around the market’s current resistance line. The line that began at the beginning of the bear market with the second point at the end Primary wave 2 is roughly the same as the line from the end of Primary wave 2 and Primary wave 4. These have been resistance lines for the market thus far, but once we break above them, they are likely to become new support levels. This would see wave B lose about 600 points or 13% over 59 days in the first quarter of 2023. These dates and levels will change as more data comes in from Primary wave A and line theory is plotted as well. The final set of projections will be the intermediate waves inside of Primary wave A. Wave 1 could last 5-10-13 days based on the quartiles and it is currently at 11 days. I project it to currently be in the final leg of Minor wave 5 with the Federal Reserve likely being the top and end of Intermediate wave 1 at 14 days long. The quartiles could deliver Intermediate wave 1 gains of 280-336-677 points. So far we have gained 413.84 which is above the median and we are not done yet. 677 points is possible placing the top around 4168 which is another 200 points up over 3 days. However, my line theory could place the top around 4030 which is just over 100 points from Friday’s close. Early guess is folks believe the Fed is taking a breather while my analysis is telling me they are about to do something unexpected set to temporarily shock markets. Wave 2 could last 1-4-5-8-17 days based on minimum-quartiles-maximum. The ratio of wave 1 length to wave 2 narrows the field to 2-5-11 days long. I will plot it around 5-6 days for now. The market could be looking at a drop of 172-220-358 based on the quartiles for movement inside of the larger wave while movement based on 1:2 ratios points at quartiles of 295-367-452. I will plot around a 330 drop for now. This places the bottom the day after election day. The market will likely rejoice if there is guaranteed gridlock in Washington. This is a perfect place to begin an expansive wave 3 rally. The data gets looser the more estimated variables deeper we get so I won’t get too specific yet. Based on contribution to larger wave, wave 3 could last 8-14-19-22-27 days. Based on relationship to wave 1 it could last 7-16-23-35 days and based on it relationship to wave 2 it could last 9-33 days. I will plot it around 17 days for now. CPI release would be 23 days deep so that is something to consider as well. The gain could take us up near 4300. Wave 4 could see a drop down toward 4100 over 5 days before wave 5 finishes out Primary A before Christmas. Ultimately the run up will not be close to sustainable which will finally force everything down where it belongs. The billionaires stating the economy is not in a good position will be correct soon, but lets enjoy the run up while we can.
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
Defensively aggressive laddering dips - "Knife Juggling" I contest that Crypto is currently not bull and bear, but pigeons and eagles. "Just buy the dip" and "HODL" are two bromides of wisdom for the pigeons, kindly given by the eagles. Ways to keep skittish retail from panic selling and causing even more volatility. But clearly in a volatile market with big swings (10-20% within hours), buying dips is a good strategy. But we are sagely warned against 'catching knives' - get confirmation before buying. Great, but whenever Bitcoin shits itself the market drops with it, and Bitcoin is more erratic than modern politics, which means you can timidly wait a long time for a good entry... and still catch a knife in the hand. HODL is also cute. "Just buy whatever the market is doing, don't try to time the market". Michael Saylor, gigachad himself, bought 500 million worth of Bitcoin for 37.6k average... within a week it was trading consistently under 32k. The circumstances there are a bit different, as held in fund etc, but one can't help but think a bit of timing the market would have been wise. If you bought Bitcoin at 65k, and it slumped to 55k, and then it was clearly heading down, why wouldn't you sell 'at a loss' and buy back in later? More satoshis for the same amount as the original investment, even if the first cash out was less money than you originally put in. Stressful and with some risk, I grant you, but not dumb. This is what all money managers do, but we are told dilligently not to do it - one rule for the pigeons, one rule for the eagles. But one great idea from HODL is the Dollar-Cost Averaging... If you are 'under water' on an investment, you can keep buying back in as the price craters. There is a horrible amount of sunk cost fallacy to it - throwing good money after bad - but you can reduce your break even sale price quickly that way. How does this fit in with catching a falling knife, or rather knife-juggling , you ask? Well, if you keep track of your DCA, and you are using an exchange with lower fees (eg Kraken) rather than something with a high spread (eg Uphold), you can buy dips and sell tops slightly safer. IDEA This is more for swing trading than 'investing'. Invest in bear markets, sell in bulls... let the pigeons get that backwards. With this technique you are still able to aggressively buy dips, as long as you believe the market is in an overall uptrend. It relies upon laddering in (multiple buying points) on the way down, and taking decent profits sensibly on the way up (don't sell all in one go, but take some off the table whenever there is a big move - do not sell below your break even price (BE)). If you are tracking your DCA, as you take profits on peaks, your BE. As your BE price drops, you can use that for your new stop loss limit level, and use BE*1.05 for your stop loss trigger... ensuring you get 5% return whatever. You could also split it, so half your remaining bag stops at that level, whereas the other is stopped as high as possible but decently below a key support to allow retracement. You can then set limit order buys on a small amount above good support lines, which should provide a base in times of market fear. You will often snipe a good deal and it will roar back up. If it is being pushed down by BTC price action, it often recovers quickly, regaining that support level, reducing your risk. NB: If you buy into further dips on the way up, your BE will also rise, so be careful if your BE is close to market or has no support cover. NB: If you buy into further dips below your BE price, because the market has dropped since your first entry, your BE will also drop, thus making it easier to get out of your position without a loss (especially if you bagged some profits when possible) when it next upticks. It does rely on eventual market upticks, but that's crypto. Keep your head, don't panic sell, and try to clear out of your holdings now and then to reassess the market. Be clear what you are investing in, and what you are trading in - they are different strategies. And no shit half the battle is good entries and exits. Sell into strength, buy at peak fear etc, but try to get the meat of the move. Good luck. HOW No Pro, no Show :'( - See comments In arrange QUANTITY and PRICE in two columns, and just copy the trade numbers from Cryptowatch etc. BUY is simply quantity, but SELL is the negative of quantity. (eg 50 | 0.10 ; -50 | 0.15 ) Sum the quantities, which should give you your current holdings (check!) Then use =SUMPRODUCT(B8:B24,C8:C24) to add all the multiplied quantities and prices. You then divide that by the sum of your current holdings (repeat the sum equation or call that cell) Voila. That will give you BE, and *1.05 will give you BE + 5%, giving you your SL price to ensure a profit. Figuring this out has helped me deal with swing trading the schizophrenic BTC/Alt market the last week or two. --- Let me know if it helps, or if you think it is ridiculous/sophomoric/dangerous. I'm also fairly new - but not doing terribly.
TLong
by JohnWukong
1
Has $LMND Finally Bottomed Out? After falling over 60% from ATH's, Lemonade shares have seen a strong bounce off of an important volume shelf. The MACD and Stochastic appear bullish, which indicates strong momentum. In addition, this bounce has brought $LMND to an important resistance level, which means that a break to that level could cause prices to surge. This is definitely a buyable dip, as Lemonade is a phenomenal company that could easily be worth $300 in a couple of years. Like and follow for more ideas like this :) Good Luck!
NYSE:LMNDLong
by Investor4321
#HBAR Bullish Butterfly Pattern (4H)Compared to both Bitcoin and Ethereum, HBAR is fundamentally a superior Cryptocurrency. Faster Transaction times, Smaller Transaction fees, and a plethora of real World applications. Based on this premise I would advise Hodling HBAR as a long term investment. Those of you who regularly view my published ideas will notice, on this chart, the lack of a position tool denoting a stop. The price of HBAR will continue to rise, and I intend to buy every dip as it does. The Butterfly is a reversal pattern that can be found at the end of retracements (pullbacks) and long term trends. The structure is formed by five points (X,A,B,C,D), the final three of which are identified by measuring specific percentage ratios from the intial two. The final point, D, denotes the point of entry for a trade. Check the links below for a more in-depth explanation on how to identify, measure and trade the butterfly. You can also watch video tutorials on all the major harmonic patterns by visiting my channel.
Long
by Cryptsyxalt
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 1/12/2021 SessionContract - CME_MINI:MNQH2021 - High - 12929.25 - Low - 12898.25 Evening Stats - Gap: = N/A - Session Open ATR: 201.30 - Volume: 18k - Open Int: 229k - Trend Grade: Bullish Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as a range) - Long: 13337 - Short: 10650 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
CME_MINI:NQH2021
by mv3trader5
EURGBP: It's time to go long ( Buy the dips)HIGH PROBABILITY REVERSAL ZONE. This is the high probability set-up you've been looking for. As you can see the market just hit a VERY critical area where the market rejected the price multiple times (pink circles) in the past and from supply is now a STRONG demand zone. We are expecting the same rejection as the previous week (120+ pips) but we put Take Profit lower than this for a higher chance to hit the TP target. --> Take Profit is at 75 pips which gives us a 1:3 Risk To Reward Ration. --> You can extend your TP target if you see that the bulls took the control and the market is moving up aggressive / sharp. --> Watch for lower timeframes for better analysis and better entry but i think this is the best spot to enter the market. HOW TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE? 1. At 1:1 move to Break Even. 2. At 1:2 take 50% Parochial Profits. 3. At 1:3 take 50% Parochial Profits OR extend your take profit target (Depends on the price action at that moment). --> If it breaks the descending trend extend more the TP target and go for THE BIG MOVE! HAVE A NICE WEEK & HAPPY PROFITS ! ! !
Long
by MONEYMAKER00
3
BTC is looking good for the next weekMACD is bearish and RSI is neutral however the timing for BTC is perfect considering consensus which seems to be a positive event for cryptos. BTC is staying above 8600 for last few hours and that's a good sign. Not much volume so can't count it as support and hard to identify any great resistance in sight. If things which drive the cryptos remain positive, there should be an extended healthy correction to dumping we saw in 2 days ago and thus, it might be a good time to buy BTC or alts.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by iamanupam
2