Goldman Sachs on July FOMC Decision : - The run of positive economic news in recent weeks has coincided with generally dovish comments from Fed offcials. Policymakers have indicated that they are not âbehind the curveâ, and have expressed increased uncertainty about the neutral level of interest rates. We would treat recent comments with caution, however,...
FOMC Lockhart was the 4th Fed this week to imo be relatively Hawkish with his words, most notably reinforcing with the others brexits near-term stability saying "Doesn't Expect 'Brexit' to Have Near Term Impact on Economy" and " So Far 'Brexit' Reaction Largely Orderly". Most interestingly though was Lockharts view on the FOMC's positioning for future rate...
IMO FOMC George was largely bullish/ Hawkish $ on the margin; surprisingly coming out and stating for one of the first times that "Fed rates are too low" and "Not Raising Rates in June Was Due to Timing Issues" - these two statements imo hint that a hike coUuld be on the cards earlier than perhaps was expected (Dec), in-light of his opinion of them being too low...
1. IMO Dudley tipped to the dovish side, especially on key inflation highlighting that it is " rising again, but still low". Other rhetoric reaffirmed much of what has been said post the brexit vote e.g. Uncertainty being the biggest factor. 2. Meanwhile, Williams was notably more upbeat/ optimistic, shrugging off the US's shock miss NFP report to instead...
Now that the Brexit risk has been realised the mentioned pairs above will share some correlation this week as the market changes between risk-on and risk-off as MANY on the events continually drive the sentiment shifts. My Plan & Expectations USDJPY 1. My conviction for UJ is long 8/10. -UJ traded to lows of 98.9 in the midst of the brexit hype, as the...
Fundamentals: - The Australian economy has continued to show strength certainly more so than its counter country New Zealand. Although the commodity prices figure has shown growth in the past year we are still in negative growth. The Caixin Manufacturing PMI in China came out better than expected but the high wage growth shown in the NFP on Friday should dampen...
Fundamentals: - As expected the additional QE fell short of what the market would have liked to have seen and caused a substantial rally after the initial announcement. We think this rally is unjustified under the current monetary policy divergence between the Euro and the USD and still expect to see parity by the end of 2016. We will be looking for a return to...
Fundamentals: - Mixed data from Canada last week with a tick up in unemployment and worse than expected employment change. However the rally in Oil did help the Canadian strengthen for a period of time last week. I don’t think the Canadian can maintain a positive rally, once the data starts to be absorbed by the market we should see this pair return to the upside...