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Buyxauusd

Gold - great upside potential?XAUUSD is still inside a major upswing that is currently consolidating above the Median Line of the upsloping fork + above the recent tops of a range, that was broken up a few weeks ago. The stall above the ML gives us a decent entry with a great R2R ratio, with the stop being below the ML and recent tops in case of a overshoot/backtest. Trade is Long Gold cmp (1387) Stop Loss: 1353 TP: 1528 One should never risk more than 4% of his/her account. Thread carefully, Nick
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by NickBlack
2
Gold continue to pay attention to several things at onceXAUUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: $1205.20 Day Trading Range: $1200.00 - $1218.50 Key Resistance: $1210.66 - $1214.59 - $1217.33 - $1221.20 Key Support: $1205.20 - $1203.25 - $1200.00 - $1196.28 Technical Indicators: RSI: Indicator lacks downside momentum, moving around 64 level. Moving Average: SMA 20($1203.63) & SMA 55($1200.71) strong support for Gold. Technical Trade Idea: Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1205.20 with targets at 1212.45 & 1215.38 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1205.20 look for further downside with 1203.25 & 1199.89 as targets Overall, Gold continue to pay attention to several things at once, as there are fears about the trade war, questions about whether the Federal Reserve will be able to raise interest rates in that environment, and then of course a lot of fear in the emerging markets. This has made the precious metals sector very difficult to trade at times, if you are looking at short-term charts. However, all one has to do is zoom out to the longer-term charts and recognize that we are in a major downtrend. This isn’t to say the gold can’t rally, most certainly can and it has. However there are levels where we see a lot of resistance previously. This is seen just above at the $1215 level, which should be a bit of a challenge to get above. That’s not to say that we can’t break above there, but we need some help from the US dollar. Thanks YoCryptoManic
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by yoCryptoManic
Gold sellers could hit it hardTechnical Overview Weekly Pivot: $1197.67 Weekly Key Resistance: $1204.46 - $1208.66 - $1215.45 - $1223.43 Weekly Key Support: $1190.97 - $1186.68 - $1179.89 - $1170.09 Technical Indicator: RSI: The RSI shows to more downside bias, moving below 50 level. MACD: Macd having seller pressure with high volume. Moving Avg: SMA55 ($1198.29 Blue Line in above Chart) & SMA200 ($1200.81 Black Line in above Chart) Strong Resistance for Gold. Most Likely Scenario Long Position $1180 - $1184 with Strong Stop $1172 with target $1192.45 - $1198.35 in extension. Fundamental: Gold could start the week under pressure if reports from over the week-end are accurate. The Wall Street Journal reported Saturday, citing individuals familiar with the matter that President Trump is planning to impose a fresh round of tariffs targeting about $200 billion in Chinese goods. According to the Journal, the tariffs are expected to be set at around 10%, according to people familiar with the matter, a lower level than the possibility of 25% tariffs previously floated by the administration. With the move, Trump is trying to pressure Beijing ahead of planned high-level discussions and is intended to provide the U.S. leverage in talks over China’s alleged practice of demanding American companies turn over technology in order to do business in the country, the Journal reported. However, traders could flock to the safety of the U.S. Dollar, putting pressure on gold prices, if the imposition of new tariffs escalates trade tensions between the U.S. and China. There are no major U.S. economic reports this week but Treasury yields could continue to move anyway as investors position themselves ahead of the next Fed interest rate announcement on September 26. Last week, the benchmark 10-year Treasury note hit 3 percent, if it continues through this level, sellers could hit gold hard. Minor reports include the Empire State Manufacturing Index, Building Permits, Housing Starts. Thanks YoCryptoManic
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by yoCryptoManic
8
USDJPY V GOLD: BEST VALUE - RISK-ON SELL JPY; RISK-OFF BUY GOLD Why Gold is lagging Safe have losses & Yen is outperforming 1. When looking at Gold vs Yen or XAUJPY it becomes apparent why Gold is lagging the broad safe haven losses that we have seen during this risk-recovery rally - investors are buying gold over Yen - so gold appears to be their preferred safe have asset to hold in a risk-on rally - likely a function of perceived future weakness of Yen? BOJ/ JPY Govt stimulus? - This may be the case for three reasons; 1) Investors speculate JPY is due further downside gains compared to gold (Gold is the stronger Risk-off asset) and they speculate that BOJ may deliver a big devaluing package and/ or 2) They believe JPY is more overvalued than Gold so they sell their JPY holdings over their Yen. 3) Gold is more illiduid compared to Yen e.g. investors have been able to sell their Yen faster/ easier than their Gold as Gold is a physical asset and FX markets are the most liquid markets in the world - whereas Yen is pure currency which is convertible at any level. Implications: 1. This infers that investors expect Gold to continue to outperform in risk-off rallies going forward - which makes sense given Gold is already up 30% this year vs Yen's only 20% up - so they see further upside for Gold. This could be the case as the market discounts the probability that the BOJ/ JPY govt delivers a large easing package which devalues the JPY. - Therefore Gold shorts should be careful during this risk-on rally as when the tides change back to the trend of risk-off, Gold is more likely to rally aggressively in comparison to Yen. Trading strategy: 1. Buying Gold on the risk-on reversal (to risk-off) - we should allocate the liquidity to Gold over Yen to take advantage of this investor sentiment. 2. The market is clearly discounting quit aggressive JPY weakness when relatively compared to other safe havens - likely due to BOJ/ JPY Govt stimulus worries. - Knowing this, we should potentially position for JPY shorts - since the market clearly is positioning for some serious JPY weakness relatively - a big BOJ package? 3. Whilst safe havens have outperformed risk by 14% (20% safe havens 6% risk-on assets - pre-brexit) - Gold has also outperformed Yen by 7%. - Therefore in risk-off rallies we SHOULD expect Yen to underperform Gold e.g. GOLD should be brought over Yen. - In risk-on rallies (now) we should expect Yen shorts to outperform Gold as Yen is considered the poorer asset - USDJPY longs are better/ safe than Gold shorts (hence supporting my long $yen view). *Check the attached posts that also support the long $Yen view in this market*
FX_IDC:XAUJPYLong
by QuantumLogicTrading
5
RISK-OFF YEAR: BREXIT & US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: BUY GOLD @12592016, the year of the Risk-Off Asset Historically Gold has performed +10-20% in the 6 months into US Presidential Election years AND also by longing Gold on this pull-back it opens up the opportunity to benefit from the potential tail risk that the UK votes to "Brexit" in which Gold will likely trade through $1400. Gold is one of my favourite plays for 2016 for these reasons so I suggest a strategy of: Buy GOLD - 1@1259 2@1237 3@1210 Long term TP $1395 SL $1195 Short term TP $1310 SL $1195 - Near-term on a UK Vote to stay we will likely see Gold risk-on sell off towards the $1200 handle - this is a great opp to get a good average price by buying Gold on its way down as I expect Gold to trade close to $1400 by years end and into the Election. - A UK Vote Leave will put Gold close to the $1400 level within a week. - The time-risk are asymmetrically skewed to the upside for Gold IMO as 1) in the near term, Brexit and Global economic unbalance uncertainty buoys the precious metal; Further, the recent failure of risk markets (SP/DJ) to set new highs despite posting recovery, likely signifies the end of the equity bull run, and thus the start of the Gold bull Run. - and 2) The US FOMC Rate Hike Cycle, US Presidential election and wider Global Economic concerns of Deflation and low-growth which is a systemic issue and is also likely to be the case for the foreseeable future (with the 2nd and 3rd largest Central Banks - ECB and BOJ under pressure - among much of the developed world) all contribute to drive the increase in risk-off/ safe haven demand for Gold over the Long-Medium term. - Gold is selling-off due to the increased risk appetite in the market currently as the near-term Brexit risk is soothed by "Stay" biased polls - HOWEVER, with Gold Volatility trading 50% lower than it was a week ago (reflecting the settled risk this week) with current ATM at 15%, and with 1M Risk-Reversals trading with a positive call skew of 3% we can expect an upward bias over the coming weeks/ months. - As lower Implied Vols are projected across the 12m options curve and the 12m Futures curve is also trading contango which both imply the Gold market sentiment is for the price to rise. - Finally, as the FOMC Rate hike cycle intensifies over the medium-term, bond prices will come under pressure, thus driving further demand for Gold as the higher quality and higher return asset is sought.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by QuantumLogicTrading
6