TGR pt.2 - SPY vs. gravityThis chart uses symmetric trajectories from the early distribution phases to estimate the path price will take to initiate markdown.
Initial target = 506-508. If SPY finds resistance at 516 then the initial target could hit by the end of this week (5/10). If SPY breaks above 516 it should find resistance at 518-520, and then the initial target will be delayed - 506-508 would likely still hit by 5/17 if the latter case is realized.
Goal Target = 492 by 5/13 earliest, 5/23 latest. Could extend lower into the 480s but still need a confirmation signal to establish time to target.
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My Trade(s):
- Entered July 19 SPY 506 puts for 6.85 (underlying price = 515.47)
- Will Add if SPY continues higher (looking to add in the 518-520 range)
- Will Add if SPY closes back below 514.
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This looks doomed, but is there enough residual demand to keep this afloat until June? Or will conjunctions of larger forces pull this further down in May...
It depends on if we break back below 514 - that's all it will take to spur a rapid selloff.
