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BXY

Pound Outlook (BXY) Next 30 DaysI am not one to study the news and we all know that Brexit is a mess. I don't study the Brexit play-by-play because by the time news drops it is usually too late in my opinion. Every trader sees the market different. That is just my outlook. I am a very technical based analyzer. In my opinion Brexit can create more strength or more weakness and uncertainty like it has been. With that being said it is kind of up in the air for me at the moment. The ABC wave had a .707 retracement. The extension of that wave (BCD) was .141 and upon completion, we saw bearish sentiment slow down a bit. The reason I believe these ratios are important are because they are perfect reciprocals of each other. When we see retracements of .618, and price then extend to a 1.618 extension price usually reverses...it is because they are reciprocals. The same goes for .786 & 1.27 .707 is a reciprocal of 1.41 This does not happen every time but it is common. At the moment I believe the BXY will test the current bearish trendline I have drawn, but the real question is where will it go from there? Down or Up? I rather wait and see more decisiveness from the market before choosing a side. I have a feeling it will break the trend...but we all know where emotions get you in this game right?.... Enjoy!
TVC:BXY
by elevatedinvestor
GBP's historical "Complex head and shoulders top" (bear market)Looking at the historical charts of British pound (since 1953) I noticed that it formed quite a fine complex head and shoulders with double top and multiple shoulders. This pattern is described in detail by Thomas Bulkowski in the Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns. The performance of this pattern in bear market is 8 out of 21. The breakout from neckline occurred in the early 2017. In 60 % of cases of "complex head and shoulders tops" pullbacks occur in 60 % of cases (in bear market) what we have just witnessed. Price pulled back to neckline. Percentage meeting price target is 45 % and tall patterns perform better than short ones (we do have a tall head of 17 months span). If the rally meets the price target, it will be the ultimate historical bottom for GBP, lower than the decline of 1985! This will cause economic turmoils in the UK (situation is already tense because of Brexit turmoil) and possible secession of pro-EU Scotland. This decline is not surprising as GBP has been in decline since 1953 - it dropped from 2.81 to 1.35 against the USD in the course of 68 years). I believe this is a great chance for long term sells of GBPJPY (JPY as standalone index already shines bullish and is going to rise through summer and fall), GBPCAD (as CAD is to strengthen through the summer, from early June I would say), GBPCHF (frank is also strong and is starting a bullish rally this month, bullish signs already in play), GBPNZD (from July when Kiwi will turn bullish) and GBPUSD too. We will see massive bearish rallies on those pairs this year. EURGBP isnt a good choice as both currencies are in decline (forming a consolidating market), though GBP is gonna move down faster.
TVC:BXYShort
by ICFX
British pound falling...British Pound has been in a free fall since 2008. A year a ago (January 2017) it started doing a retrace and pulled back to the fib level. It didnt manage to establish itself above the fib level forming a double top. Now it started falling again. Expect a significant drop (the size of double top formation - from neck to top) when it breaks through a yearly trendline. That should happen in a few days. Today (28.04) it dropped massively forming a gap (if you look at normal candles, I used Heiken Ashi in this chart). A falling gap (window) is a sign of further bearish trend. Tomorrow it might slightly pull back into ATR channel (today it fell out of it). And in a few days we should see a further ride down. Prepare for for more GBP pairs sales esp. against traditionally strong currencies as safe haven JPY or gold driven AUD.
TVC:BXYShort
by ICFX